LA-04 Runoff, Predictions and Results

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If Cao wins, the term "one term wonder" must have been designed with him in mind.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If Cao wins, the term "one term wonder" must have been designed with him in mind.

And you thought Nick Lampson was screwed...

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If Cao wins, the term "one term wonder" must have been designed with him in mind.

And you thought Nick Lampson was screwed...

Micheal Patrick Flanagan.

[Sam Spade]

As I said yesterday, these LA runoffs are strange.  If the Republican wins down there, he has almost zero chance at re-election I would think (kind of like Flanagan), but it's funny.

Proof that you can't run a black liberal and win, but an Asian conservative has a shot at least in Nawlins...

[JohnnyLongtorso]

If Cao wins, the term "one term wonder" must have been designed with him in mind.

And you thought Nick Lampson was screwed...

Micheal Patrick Flanagan.

Who, ironically, got beat by Rod Blagojevich...

[Ronnie]

I know we would only have this seat for two years, but it's hilarious that a Republican can win in New Orleans.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I say give him a year. If Cao turns out to be a sane Rep then have him challenge Vitter in a Primary. If he can beat Jefferson I think he can beat Vitter. That way he has a political future. Hell in this state it might just work. If he turns out to be crazy then he can go down to a 30 point defeat in 2010.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I say give him a year. If Cao turns out to be a sane Rep then have him challenge Vitter in a Primary. If he can beat Jefferson I think he can beat Vitter. That way he has a political future. Hell in this state it might just work. If he turns out to be crazy then he can go down to a 30 point defeat in 2010.

Cao is probably sane as Louisiana Republicans go. I'll give him that.

[rbt48]

I think recounts in Louisiana traditionally don't change much of anything of significance in terms of numbers of votes.  I'm recalling Landrieu's victory over Fields in 1996 and Alexander's similarly narrow win over Fletcher in 2002.  The recounts didn't turn up any significant changes.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I say give him a year. If Cao turns out to be a sane Rep then have him challenge Vitter in a Primary. If he can beat Jefferson I think he can beat Vitter. That way he has a political future. Hell in this state it might just work. If he turns out to be crazy then he can go down to a 30 point defeat in 2010.

Cao is probably sane as Louisiana Republicans go. I'll give him that.

Sane as Bobby Jindal or Sane as David Duke both are or were LA Republicans.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I say give him a year. If Cao turns out to be a sane Rep then have him challenge Vitter in a Primary. If he can beat Jefferson I think he can beat Vitter. That way he has a political future. Hell in this state it might just work. If he turns out to be crazy then he can go down to a 30 point defeat in 2010.

I'd like to see a Cao vs. Cazayoux matchup. Battle of the accidental congressmen!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I say give him a year. If Cao turns out to be a sane Rep then have him challenge Vitter in a Primary. If he can beat Jefferson I think he can beat Vitter. That way he has a political future. Hell in this state it might just work. If he turns out to be crazy then he can go down to a 30 point defeat in 2010.

Cao is probably sane as Louisiana Republicans go. I'll give him that.

Sane as Bobby Jindal or Sane as David Duke both are or were LA Republicans.

I think that's his point. Cao isn't a fascist or a Nazi so by LA Republican standards he is sane.

[cinyc]

huh...  AP put the check mark by Cao?  Don't they know what's still out.

The biggest block of what's out is in the 9th Ward, precincts 28-41 (and sub-precincts). I'm trying to figure out if that's the Lower 9th or Upper 9th.  If it's the Lower 9th, there may be few voters left there.

I'd expect the 15th ward portions that are out to go Cao, like most of the rest of the 15th.  Algiers is more like Jefferson than Orleans in some respects.

Looks like it's Upper Ninth, generally closer to the lake than the river.  Cao actually won some of the few geographically similar 9th ward precincts that are in.  I can see why the AP called it.

[Sam Spade]

Bio on his website (yes he does have a website):

http://josephcaoforcongress.com/pg-80-11-about.aspx

Apparently Vietnamese from Houston originally.

Interesting:  In 2007 Joseph ran as an independent for the State House of Representatives and carried Orleans Parish.

Wonder which parts? (rhetorical question)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

His site is actually rather well designed and set up for someone probably considered to be a sacrificial lamb. Hell he's even holding an election party.

[cinyc]

Bio on his website (yes he does have a website):

http://josephcaoforcongress.com/pg-80-11-about.aspx

Apparently Vietnamese from Houston originally.

Interesting:  In 2007 Joseph ran as an independent for the State House of Representatives and carried Orleans Parish.

Wonder which parts? (rhetorical question)

Very little of Orleans was in the district.  Ninth Ward, precincts 41, 41A-D, 45 and 45A.  Basically, New Orleans East/Michoud, near NASA's Michoud Facility and Venetian Isles, out in the bayou.

Sorry to answer your rhetorical question with an actual answer.

[Padfoot]

356 votes.  Recount worthy

Oh no, I don't want there to be another Minnesota episode.

There weren't that many votes total. I doubt a recount would do anything. The only question is are there any outstanding provisionals or absentees?

there are indeed which is why it hasn't been called.

[muon2]

LA SOS just posted the full precinct count in LA 2:

Cao 50% (33,122)
Jefferson 47% (31,296)

[Sam Spade]

NOLA.com has it with all precincts in:

Cao , Joseph    GOP    33,122    50%
Jefferson , William (i)    Dem    31,296    47%
Rahim , Malik    Grn    1,880    3%
Kahn , Gregory    Lib    548    1%

Cao does win, if this is the case.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And yet Don Young also won. Shows that Democrats don't tolerate corruption yet Republicans love their corrupt folks.

[rbt48]

Sounds like we shouldn't have been surprised by the Cao win:  
http://www.nola.com/timespic/stories/index.ssf?/base/news-0/1228028660197320.xml&coll=1

This is a major Republican resurgence with the two apparent wins tonight.  Well ... more seriously, consider this:

I'd have expected that we'd have a black as President before I would have guessed that Louisiana would have ever had the son of Indian immigrants as governor or a Vietnamese immigrant as the Congressional representative from New Orleans.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Sounds like we shouldn't have been surprised by the Cao win:  http://www.nola.com/timespic/stories/index.ssf?/base/news-0/1228028660197320.xml&coll=1

This is a major Republican resurgence with the two apparent wins tonight.  Well ... more seriously, consider this:

I'd have expected that we'd have a black as President before I would have guessed that Louisiana would have ever had the son of Indian immigrants as governor or a Vietnamese immigrant as the Congressional representative from New Orleans.

Cao is a one term wonder who knocked off a corrupt Democrat because a lot of Democrats voted for him just to get rid of Jefferson, including Cylon Candidate. 

I don't think a Republican winning in LA-04 is a particularly exciting result.

So yeah, whatever.

[Lief 🗽]

Sounds like we shouldn't have been surprised by the Cao win:  http://www.nola.com/timespic/stories/index.ssf?/base/news-0/1228028660197320.xml&coll=1

This is a major Republican resurgence with the two apparent wins tonight.  Well ... more seriously, consider this:

I'd have expected that we'd have a black as President before I would have guessed that Louisiana would have ever had the son of Indian immigrants as governor or a Vietnamese immigrant as the Congressional representative from New Orleans.

Hardly. Republicans barely held an R+7 district and beat a corrupt Democrat who no mainstream Democrats actually support in a seat that we'll win back by a 20-point margin next election.

[Sam Spade]

Sounds like we shouldn't have been surprised by the Cao win:  http://www.nola.com/timespic/stories/index.ssf?/base/news-0/1228028660197320.xml&coll=1

Huh.  Makes more sense now.  We all just completely ignored this one.  I take blame too.

Anyway, congrats to the winner.  Anything is better than Jefferson - I believe he's the first Vietnamese congressman too.

[cinyc]

And yet Don Young also won. Shows that Democrats don't tolerate corruption yet Republicans love their corrupt folks.

Don Yong hasn't been indicted of anything yet.  Jefferson has been indicted.  Senator Stevens was convicted and lost his Senate seat in Alaska.