European Elections 2009 (France)

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Ifop poll in IdF.

UMP 29%
PS 23.5%
Greenies 12%
MoDem 12%
FN 6%
Left 6%
NPA 5%
DLR 2%
Libertas 1.5%
LO 1%
Others 2% [CNI, scientologists, liberals, anti-zionist]

Highest averages = fail.

UMP 5
PS 4
Greenies 2
MoDem 2

Anyways, I've devised a mathematical formula which gives the predicted votes for each constituency using a nationwide poll (aka applying a uniform swing). Using Ipsos, since all others are fail, but allowing 1.5 for the AEI, comparing DLR to the RPF, and lumping LO and Others together.

Ile-de-France
UMP 26.7% / 5
PS 17% / 3
MoDem 16.7% / 3
Greenies 10.6% / 1
NPA 7% / 1

Sud-Est
UMP 26.6% / 4
PS 19% / 3
MoDem 12.3% / 2
Greenies 11.1% / 1
FN 7.9% / 1
NPA 6.6% / 1
Libertas 5.6% / 1

Nord-Ouest
UMP 22.2% / 3
PS 21.3% / 3
MoDem 11.8% / 1
Greenies 9.9% / 1
FN 8.6% / 1
Libertas 6.5% / 1

Sud-Ouest
UMP 24.1% / 3
PS 21.2% / 3
MoDem 13.7% / 2
Greenies 11.4% / 1
NPA 7.1% / 1

Ouest
UMP 26.8% / 3
PS 23.5% / 3
MoDem 12.2% / 1
Libertas 12% / 1
Greenies 10.8% / 1

Est
UMP 26.5% / 4
PS 18.8% / 2
MoDem 12.9% / 1
Greenies 9.5% / 1
FN 7.9% / 1
NPA 7% / 1

Massif-Centre
UMP 29.3% / 2
PS 21.6% / 2
MoDem 10.4% / 1

Outre-Mer
The calculus says UMP 34.2% (2), PCR 28% (1). But no. I'll predict same as 2004.

UMP 24
PS 20
MoDem 11
Greenies 6
NPA 4
FN 3
Libertas 3
PCR 1

This is in no way my prediction, for obvious reasons.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

NC: Damn, that's awful, but that's suits very well with the image of Hervé Morin, it's a kind of thing which wanna be funny and modern, but which is just empty.

Didn't see it. Linky?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xxs-4TegOtY

This Elise seems to be very cool, she never gets old...

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NC: Damn, that's awful, but that's suits very well with the image of Hervé Morin, it's a kind of thing which wanna be funny and modern, but which is just empty.

Didn't see it. Linky?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xxs-4TegOtY

This Elise seems to be very cool, she never gets old...

Not too bad, but I have the impression that Morin's voice is not in sync with the film.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Not too bad, but I have the impression that Morin's voice is not in sync with the film.

Surely Youtube.

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TNS-Sofres wave 2

UMP 26% (nc)
PS 20% (+1)
MoDem 13% (-1)
Greens 11% (nc)
PCF-PG 7% (nc)
NPA 6% (nc)
FN 6% (nc)
Libertas 4.5% (+0.5)
LO 2.5% (+0.5)
AEI 1.5% (nc)
DLR 0.5% (nc)
Others 2% (-1)

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

PS is back!!

[Tender Branson]

The parties of the Center-Left at 48% ?

Nice.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

The parties of the Center-Left at 48% ?

Nice.

Yep, the whole right is regularly poll at about 36% these days. That's something. Though that are just European elections.

[Tender Branson]

The parties of the Center-Left at 48% ?

Nice.

Yep, the whole right is regularly poll at about 36% these days. That's something. Though that are just European elections.

How many MoDem voters actually voted for Sarkozy against Royal ?

Were there any exit polls ?

Someone please update my memory ...

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The parties of the Center-Left at 48% ?

Nice.

Sadly.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

The parties of the Center-Left at 48% ?

Nice.

Yep, the whole right is regularly poll at about 36% these days. That's something. Though that are just European elections.

How many MoDem voters actually voted for Sarkozy against Royal ?

Were there any exit polls ?

Someone please update my memory ...

Hashemite would certainly have polls to carry you. From what I remember from analysts at the time, they gave 1/3 of Modem for Sarkozy, 2/3 for Royal. Something which seems pretty relevant.

[Hash]

The parties of the Center-Left at 48% ?

Nice.

Yep, the whole right is regularly poll at about 36% these days. That's something. Though that are just European elections.

How many MoDem voters actually voted for Sarkozy against Royal ?

Were there any exit polls ?

Someone please update my memory ...

Hashemite would certainly have polls to carry you. From what I remember from analysts at the time, they gave 1/3 of Modem for Sarkozy, 2/3 for Royal. Something which seems pretty relevant.

Most certainly not 67-33 for Royal. The people who said such stupidities and inanities deserve to be shot.

More like 40-40, with slightly more for Royal.

EDIT: Yes, 40-40, with 20% not voting.

[Tender Branson]

The parties of the Center-Left at 48% ?

Nice.

Yep, the whole right is regularly poll at about 36% these days. That's something. Though that are just European elections.

How many MoDem voters actually voted for Sarkozy against Royal ?

Were there any exit polls ?

Someone please update my memory ...

Hashemite would certainly have polls to carry you. From what I remember from analysts at the time, they gave 1/3 of Modem for Sarkozy, 2/3 for Royal. Something which seems pretty relevant.

Most certainly not 67-33 for Royal. The people who said such stupidities and inanities deserve to be shot.

More like 40-40, with slightly more for Royal.

EDIT: Yes, 40-40, with 20% not voting.

Ahh, I found the Ipsos Exit Poll:

Of the MoDems who voted, 66% voted for Sarkozy and 34% for Royal.

From the MoDems who voted in the first round, 40% wanted to vote for Sarkozy and 38% for Royal.

http://www.ipsos.fr/CanalIpsos/poll/8450.asp

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The 40-40 data comes from Sofres.

40-38 is closer to reality.

66-38 is data for UDF voters and undoubtedly includes people who now vote NC/UMP or who voted for Sarkozy by April 22.

[Tender Branson]

66-38 is data for UDF voters and undoubtedly includes people who now vote NC/UMP or who voted for Sarkozy by April 22.

Yes, different composition/turnout of the UDF-crowds in the 2 rounds might explain the discrepancy ...

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66-38 is data for UDF voters and undoubtedly includes people who now vote NC/UMP or who voted for Sarkozy by April 22.

Yes, different composition/turnout of the UDF-crowds in the 2 rounds might explain the discrepancy ...

These polls are self-ID, so there's a very good chance that some voters still identifying as UDF voted for the UMP in both rounds. The real sample in this analysis is the sample which voted for Bayrou on April 22, and not the UDF sample.

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OpinionWay in IdF

UMP 29%
PS 18%
Greens 13%
MoDem 12%
PCF-PG 6%
NPA 5%
FN 5%
Libertas 4%
AEI 2%
DLR 1%
LO 1%
Others 4%

Seats

UMP 5
PS 3
Greens 2
MoDem 2
PCF-PG 1

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CSA went to the bathroom and took a crap. This came out.

UMP 25% (-1)
PS 21% (nc)
MoDem 13% (-1)
Greens 9% (nc)
FN 8% (+1)
Libertas 6% (nc)
PCF-PG 6% (+1)
NPA 5% (-1)
AEI 2% (nc)
LO 2% (+1)
DLR 1% (nc)
Others 2%

[big bad fab]

66-38 is data for UDF voters and undoubtedly includes people who now vote NC/UMP or who voted for Sarkozy by April 22.

Yes, different composition/turnout of the UDF-crowds in the 2 rounds might explain the discrepancy ...

These polls are self-ID, so there's a very good chance that some voters still identifying as UDF voted for the UMP in both rounds. The real sample in this analysis is the sample which voted for Bayrou on April 22, and not the UDF sample.

From what I remember from polls BEFORE the election (and they're interesting because there have been far more than exit polls, but, sure they are not about real voters),
the proportion among people who intended to vote Bayrou in the first round was more:
40 Royal, 35 Sarkozy, 25 abstention/blank.

And that's from IPSOS, IFOP, SOFRES. And remember they were quite right on Bayrou's result (unlike CSA).

Nowadays, former UDF voters are more in favour of NC and UMP. MoDem voters are more on the left than even in the 1st round of 2007.
The main "relative" abstention (compared to usual voters) will come from rightists I think. Hence a big victory for the fragmented centre-left (or hidden left for some of its leaders): PS-MoDem-Greens.

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Ifop

UMP 27% (nc)
PS 21% (-0.5)
MoDem 13% (-0.5)
Greens 9.5% (+2.5)
PCF-PG 7% (+0.5)
NPA 7% (nc)
Libertas 6% (nc)
FN 6% (-1.5)
LO 1% (-1)
DLR 1% (-1)
Others 2.5% (+0.5)

Abstention estimated at 63%

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OpinionWay

UMP 26% (-2)
PS 20% (-1)
MoDem 13% (nc)
Greens 10% (nc)
FN 7% (+1)
Libertas 6% (+0.5)
NPA 6% (nc)
PCF-PG 5% (nc)
AEI 2.5% (+0.5)
LO 1% (-1)
DLR 0.5% (nc)

http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/oway-europeennes4.pdf


BVA seems to be jealous of CSA's crap polling

UMP 26%
PS 21.5%
Greens 11%
MoDem 11%
FN 8.5%
NPA 6.5%
PCF-PG 6%
Libertas 4.5%

http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2009/06/02/01011-20090602FILWWW00625-sondage-26-pour-l-ump-le-ps-a-215.php

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Concerning the repartition of Modem votes between Sarkozy and Royal in 2007, I may have mixed up some things, because if the poll you give are accurate, then why would the commentators of the epoch have gone in a 1/3 2/3 analysis. That said it stuck enough strongly in my mind, I wonder why...

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then why would the commentators of the epoch have gone in a 1/3 2/3 analysis. That said it stuck enough strongly in my mind, I wonder why...

Because they're French journalists and French journalists aren't very smart. To say the least.

[big bad fab]

BREAKING NEWS !

One poll from TNS-SOFRES (Le Monde and Radio-France):

UMP 27 (=)
PS 20(=)
Greens 13,5 (+ 2,5) !!!
MoDem 11 (-2) !!!
PG-PCF 6,5 (-0,5)
NPA 5,5 (-0,5)
FN 4 (-2)

For the moment, even on Le Monde's site, there isn't any other result.

WTF, a fake poll or a real way down for MoDem ?
We'll know in 3 days !

[Antonio the Sixth]

BREAKING NEWS !

One poll from TNS-SOFRES (Le Monde and Radio-France):

UMP 27 (=)
PS 20(=)
Greens 13,5 (+ 2,5) !!!
MoDem 11 (-2) !!!
PG-PCF 6,5 (-0,5)
NPA 5,5 (-0,5)
FN 4 (-2)

For the moment, even on Le Monde's site, there isn't any other result.

WTF, a fake poll or a real way down for MoDem ?
We'll know in 3 days !

That's not impossible : Cohn-Bendit is doing a great campaign.