European Elections 2009 (France)

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The first poll just came out for next year's EU elections.

IFOP for Paris-Match. 2004 results in brackets and bolded parties have MEPs

UMP 22% (16.64)
PS 22% (28.90)
MoDem 12% (11.96 for the UDF lists)
Greens 11% (7.41)
NPA (LCR) 8% (2.56 for LO-LCR)
FN 7% (9.81)
PCF 4% (5.88)
LO 4% (2.56 for LO-LCR)
MPF 4% (6.83)
CPNT 3% (2.51)
NC 2%
DLR 1%

Both major parties (UMP and PS) seem are lower than their 2007 presidential vote levels (31 and 25 percents respectively), but the UMP improves (they better improve, for their own sake) on their disastrous 2004 result. Cohn-Bendit's Greenie-ecologists alliance seems to be paying off and 11% is slightly higher than their 1989 result, their best result (10.59%) in EU elections. The far-left (NPA-LO) stands at 12% of the vote, similar to their 2002 levels. The NPA is performing very strongly, as I'd expect them too. I'm a bit surprised at 4% for the LO (I personally think that's way too high for them). The PCF and MPF, if they stay at sub-5 levels, they're at risk of losing all their MEPs, though that's not a certainty. European elections uses stupid constituencies where a list needs to break 5% to be eligible for seats, so the PCF and MPF will probably break 5% in one or more constituencies, and potentially win seats. I doubt the NC will end up running a list, and they'll probably go the safe way of running with the UMP in the way DL did in 1999. Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, the annoying Eurosceptic prick, who wants to create a "surprise" in the elections is probably going to epic fail.

[Хahar 🤔]

Can we make anything of this, or are polls for European elections untrustworthy?

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Can we make anything of this, or are polls for European elections untrustworthy?

The last polls in 2004 (in France, atleast) for TNS-Sofres were pretty good. Spot on the percentages for the PS, UMP, UDF. They overestimated the FN, CPNT, Greenies, MPF a bit but not a whole lot.

But a whole lot can change between now and June. Currently, Sarkozy's popularity has rebounded and is now nearing majority/plurality approval. By June, he could drop down to 38% approval or go into over 50% approval.

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If France still used the old national constituency system, the result of this would be (under the new seating) approximately.

UMP 20 (+3)
PS 20 (-11)
MoDem 11 (+0 on UDF)
Greens 10 (+4)
NPA (LCR) 7 (+7)
FN 6 (-1)

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Some April 2004 polls. First is BVA, second is Ipsos.

PS 28/32
UMP 23/22
UDF 12/12
FN 12/12
Greenies 8/8
MPF 6/4
LO-LCR 5/3
PCF 4/4
CPNT 2/2

And a June poll from BVA

LO-LCR 4
Another Trot party 2
PCF 4
PS 26
Greenies 8.5
CPNT 2.5
UDF 11
UMP 16.5
MPF 7
FN 11

The FN generally polls higher then what it actually get, since many FN voters don't bother to vote (like 55% of people).

[big bad fab]

Can we make anything of this, or are polls for European elections untrustworthy?

The problem is that we are not sure, at this point, which parties will have lists and which ones will have lists everywhere.

The new Parti de Gauche (Mélenchon) may have common lists with the PCF.
The Nouveau Centre isn't sure to make common lists with the UMP (polls like this will push it to do so...).
The old CNI tries to have lists everywhere (as for now, it will have in the West and in Ile-de-France).
Will there be other far left lists, apart from LO and NPA ? The Parti des Travailleurs, maybe ?

Best firms at the last presidential and legislative elections were IPSOS, IFOP and BVA. SOFRES wasn't vey good. CSA is awful, as often. LH2 is rather bad.

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CSA is the French ARG/Compas, and I've said that quite often. Really, any pollster that makes citywide polls in PLM for the municipal elections should be taken with a saltmine, and any pollster that makes runoff citywide polls in PLM locals should be laughed at for eternity.

The new Parti de Gauche (Mélenchon) may have common lists with the PCF.

The comments on this poll over at LeMonde.fr were overrun by hacks for the new PG.

The Nouveau Centre isn't sure to make common lists with the UMP (polls like this will push it to do so...).

I think in the end they'll come round to the UMP lists just to have a chance at seats.

The old CNI tries to have lists everywhere (as for now, it will have in the West and in Ile-de-France).

Lol. The Parti Breton is also running I'd vote for them

Will there be other far left lists, apart from LO and NPA ? The Parti des Travailleurs, maybe ?

The LO and LCR actually ran together in 2004. I don't think they'll do so again this year. The PT (now called the POI, but still a joke party) is irrelevant.

[PGSable]

When is the deadline for submitting lists?

[big bad fab]

Will there be other far left lists, apart from LO and NPA ? The Parti des Travailleurs, maybe ?

The LO and LCR actually ran together in 2004. I don't think they'll do so again this year. The PT (now called the POI, but still a joke party) is irrelevant.

Yeah, of course, sorry.
I'm always late with the far-left: OCI, PCI, MPPT, PT, now POI. In France, when we talk about those small political parties, we say they can gather their congress "dans une cabine téléphonique".

[big bad fab]

When is the deadline for submitting lists?

We don't know yet.

In 2004, the deadline was on May 28th, for an election on June, 13th.

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Will there be other far left lists, apart from LO and NPA ? The Parti des Travailleurs, maybe ?

The LO and LCR actually ran together in 2004. I don't think they'll do so again this year. The PT (now called the POI, but still a joke party) is irrelevant.

Yeah, of course, sorry.
I'm always late with the far-left: OCI, PCI, MPPT, PT, now POI. In France, when we talk about those small political parties, we say they can gather their congress "dans une cabine téléphonique".

Apparently Robert Hue is forming a new political association that some say might transform into a political party. The left is so funny.

[big bad fab]

Will there be other far left lists, apart from LO and NPA ? The Parti des Travailleurs, maybe ?

The LO and LCR actually ran together in 2004. I don't think they'll do so again this year. The PT (now called the POI, but still a joke party) is irrelevant.

And, wait, Jean-Claude Gayssot, former PCF minister during Jospin's tenure in Prime ministership, may also create an organization outside the PCF.

Hue is still member of the PCF.

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Hue remains a member, but he openly criticized the leadership. Not "reformist" enough.

[big bad fab]

And now Clémentine Autain wants to gather all the "other left" in a "fédération pour une alternative sociale et écologique".
But she criticizes Mélenchon, Besancenot et Buffet...

Autain is a former Paris vice-mayor (in charge of youth affairs). She is both "féministe enragée", green and communist but was never a member of the Greens or of the PCF. She was "apparentée" PCF during some time.

What a mess.
Even deeply divided, the PS isn't already contested in its left leadership. But the PS may slip down the same road as the SPD.

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Atleast Autain isn't under the impression the PCF actually likes her anymore. The PCF hates her. Like every sane person should, since she's weird.

[big bad fab]

Atleast Autain isn't under the impression the PCF actually likes her anymore. The PCF hates her. Like every sane person should, since she's weird.

Sure !

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She wanted to run for the PCF in 2007, IIRC. That was in the days were she lived in an alternate world of her own where she believed the PCF liked her.

[Хahar 🤔]

Could somebody summarize to me all the leftist parties that may or may not exist at the moment? I've lost track.

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Could somebody summarize to me all the leftist parties that may or may not exist at the moment? I've lost track.

Left of the PS there is the PG, PCF, NPA (LCR), LO, POI, CAP (smallish party affiliated with the PCF led by Jean-Pierre Brard, MP and former Mayor of Montreuil), and various tiny things. A lot of small associations that aren't parties, too.

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It looks more and more likely that the NC will run common lists with the UMP, in order to save their face. Though the poor devils have a hard time coming up with good arguments on why they're not running.

[minionofmidas]

What are these constituencies that will be used?

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What are these constituencies that will be used?

Multi-regional crap constituencies introduced in 2003 (but the Socialists presented a similar project when they were in government).

The seats are allocated via the highest averages method with a 5% threshold.

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The UMP has nominated its top candidates for each of the regions.

Sud-Est: F. Grossetête
Nord-Ouest: D. Riquet / T. Saïfi (2nd)
Île-de-France: M. Barnier / R. Dati (2nd)    
Ouest: C. Béchu / É. Morin (2nd)
Sud-Ouest: D. Baudis
Est: J. Daul
Massif central-Centre: J.-P. Audy

Incumbent MEPs are bolded

They went for some big names in Paris (very big names in this case) and the Sud-Ouest (never say that the Baudis dynasty is dead). An interesting choice in Christophe Béchu, the young UMP President of the Maine-et-Loire general council. Élisabeth Morin, former UMP President of Poitou-Charentes (she was defeated by the drug addict in 2004), is an MEP since Roselyne Bachelot resigned. In the Nord-Ouest, Borloo and the Rads were able to get the Mayor of Valenciennes, Dominique Riquet to be top candidate. Valérie Létard, a NC cabinet member, was offered that post, but she prefers to try her hand at running in the regionals next year. Tokia Saïfi, a former GE member and now a Rad, will need to live with a second spot, after getting the top spot in 2004. In the Sud-Ouest, incumbent MEP Alain Lamassoure will either need to live with a third spot (he was #1 in 2004) or there is some talk of carpetbagging him to IdF. Only Grossetête and Daul led UMP lists in their respective constituencies in 2004.

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Meanwhile, in the world of the Greenies.

Here are the top candidates for Europe Ecologie, a rally of Greenies, antiglobalization people, regionalists (the sell-out UDB and Partit Occitan) and so forth.

Nord-ouest: Hélène Flautre, MEP / François Dufour, antiglobalization thingee leader
Nord Est: Sandrine Bélier, ecologist jurist / Jacques Muller, Green Senator for the Haut-Rhin
Ouest: Yannick Jadot, leader of a ecologist organization / Nicole Kiil-Nielsen, Green candidate in Rennes (2008)
Île de France: Daniel Cohn-Bendit, MEP / Eva Joly, former magistrate
Massif central-Centre: Jean-Paul Besset, close to Nicolas Hulot
Sud-ouest : José Bové, Astérix / Catherine Grèze
Sud-est : Michèle Rivasi, former Green MP and deputy-mayor of Valence / François Alfonsi, Corsican regionalist

According to French wiki, here are some of the possible lists:

UMP, PS (now supported by the LeftRads), MoDem, Greenies, MPF (which will likely run under the Irish Libertas thingee), Nicolas Dupont-Aignan's outfit (supported by small groups with tinpot names and the lol Bonapartists lol), PCF-PG, FN, NPA, LO.
 
But also Alternative libérale  (the classical liberal party run in, ironically, an authoritarian manner); a possibleecologist front (MEI, FEA, and what remains of GE); Paul-Marie Coûteaux, an MEP elected with the MPF in 2004 but leader of a small outfit called the RIF might run alone (rofl. Political suicide); the "We Hate Marine Le Pen" FN dissidents (Carl Lang and Jean-Claude Martinez); an annoying Esperanto thingee; the royalists; a ROFL Maoist party; and finally the LaRouchites, again.
 

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IFOP seems to have forgotten that the French far-left is led by a bunch of individualistic egomaniacs. They published a poll hypothesizing over a common leftie list (Trots, PCF, and the PG). That list, which will never happen in my lifetime probably, would win 14.5%. The PS would win 22.5% and the Greenies only 7%. The article on LeMonde.fr doesn't talk about the numbers for the UMP, MPF, FN, or MoDem.

Edit: It's an internal poll for the PG, which is still delusional enough to think that a common left front is possible. Lol lefties. Take with a grain of salt.