European Elections 2009 (France)

[Hash]

Ipsos (best pollster)

UMP 28% (+1)
PS 22% (-1)
MoDem 11% (nc)
Greens 10% (nc)
NPA 7% (-2)
PCF-PG 5% (-1)
Libertas (MPF-CPNT) 6% (nc)
FN 5% (nc)
LO 2% (nc)
DLR 1% (nc)
All Others (MEI-GE, AL, PF, CNI) 3% (+1)

OpinionWay

UMP 28% (+1)
PS 21% (-1)
MoDem 13% (nc)
Greenies 10% (+1)
FN 6% (-1)
NPA 6% (-1)
Libertas 5.5% (+0.5)
PCF-PG 5% (nc)
LO 2% (nc)
AEI 2% (+1)
DLR 0.5% (-0.5)
Others 1%

[Umengus]

Interesting, besancenot is down.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Interesting, besancenot is down.

Yes, we shouldn't expect a high Besancenot, high far-left either. They wouldn't put a lot on this election and people who would express a strong anger by voting here wouldn't be a lot I think. The only hope for far-left would be a vote that would be the fruit of a movement that begin in streets. That said they will certainly profit of the few debate in medias during this election to express themselves.

One more time, I think that Bayrou would profit of those who want to express the discontent by this election.

There are still Greenies, yes, and they are regularly polled high, personally, I would be surprised they will be that high, but well, the one never know...

Speaking about Greenies:

Here is the last stuff of their campaign:

http://bonnenouvelle.blog.lemonde.fr/2009/05/18/la-chanson-de-bove-et-cohn-bendit/

What's the message here?

"Everything is screwed up, we are all done, let's dance on the ruins of the world"

"Vote for us! We are the ones who know that we're all screwed up!"

Great... Great message... Congrats... That's cool... That gives hope...

Or they are stupid, or, more than the world, that are their minds which are screwed up by what is trendy or not. If they wanted to be trendy, that's a success, that suits very much with the ambiance in the country...

But I'm not so sure that helps the political and democratic debate and the democratic process. I just hope they can assume all of this by such messages.

They offer campaign's spots to NPA or what?

Well, other thing, Martine Aubry seems to find back a bit more of energy in her last speeches, she's more present in media. Will PS finally...awake?? At the last minute...

Oh...euh...well...euh...euh...we never know!

[big bad fab]

In each French election, there is a surprise, i.e. a notable difference between final results and the last average of pollsters.

E.g., pres 2002: Le Pen up; pres. 2007: Le Pen down and Besancenot up; leg. 2007: UMP down in the 2nd round, FN deep down in the 1st round; euro. 1999: Pasqua-Villiers ahead of Sarkozy-Madelin; etc.

And this time, what do you think ?

PCF-PG up and ahead of NPA ?
Greens ahead of MoDem ?
UMP down to 25 or up to 30 ?
PS down to 20 or below ?

As for me, I think there will be 2 small surprises: MoDem at 15% (unfortunately... but its supporters will vote more than those from other parties) and FN ahead of NPA, PG and Libertas.

Just be aware that my political predictions are almost always bad, in France at least...

[Antonio the Sixth]

I would say MoDem doing  better and FG ahead of NPA.

[Hash]

The MoDem will probably do slightly better than the UDF did in 2004, though not by that much (13-14% seems to be a good estimate). The profile of the MoDem voter (and today, UMP voter) seems to be the profile of the voter who will certainly vote in Euros. Though I believe that the composition of the MoDem's electorate in 2009 will be quite different from that of the UDF in 2004, despite polling in the same general area.

I think the surprise this election will be the PCF-PG. I have tendency to think that the "old" PCF has a better base with workers than the NPA. The French Trots have never had that huge of a base with workers, or if they do it's much smaller than one would expect. And Besancenot isn't widely popular with workers. That Socialist activist who yelled at him at a demonstration in Paris two-three days ago is a widespread sentiment, IMO. I think workers in difficulty don't like Besancenot showing up to exploit their difficulties and problems for his own personal political gain. Electorally, given the method of PR used here, the real threshold is actually 7% in most seats (France uses highest average and not d'Hondt or something). The NPA not getting any seats due to the PCF polling strongly, the LO acting as a spoiler, and a ton of other problems wouldn't surprise me much. Though I still think they'll get something.

I don't really think the FN will do that good, but neither will Libertas. Libertas should be happy with 2 seats, though falling to only one (the Viscount) is certainly possible.

Turnout will definitely play an important role in all this, and the low turnout which is the new norm in Euros obviously plays to the disadvantage of the FN and the NPA, though not the PCF since their old voter base has excellent turnout. If the PCF ends up ahead of the NPA, the NPA will have to blame poor turnout.

The Greenies probably won't do that well either. They certainly won't break the record for best Greenie record which is held by Antoine Egochter in 1989 (10.6%) and they would be lucky to do better than their 9.7% in 1999. The Greenies campaign hasn't been anything remarkable, far from it, and I don't think economic crises are prime time for Greenies in most places.

I don't think any of the small lists will surprise anyone. The plethora of angry raving Gaullists running here and there will fall flat on their faces. LO will poll 1 or 2 percent though these votes could certainly prevent the NPA from getting the final seat in a few constituencies, especially if the final seat is a close race. The Alliance of Raeliens, Scientologists, Eco-fascists and the Like will poll in the 1-2% range, and might steal enough votes from Greenies in some places to prevent them from getting a seat. The performance of the We Hate Marine Le Pen gang will be interesting, though they'll poll pretty badly due to poor name recognition, lack of structure/grassroots, and people not really knowing them (especially in the Nord-Ouest: voters will choose between Marine Le Pen, which they've heard of before and Carl Lang, who probably has 2/3 of voters having no clue who the fuck he is). The assorted Jew-haters will poll 1% and people will go back to ignoring them, rightfully.

It will be interesting to see the results obtained by EAJ and/or ETA Batasuna in the Basque Country and the Strollad Breizh in Bretagne. This is the first time in a long time we've had non-joke nats/regionalists running region-wide.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The MoDem will probably do slightly better than the UDF did in 2004, though not by that much (13-14% seems to be a good estimate). The profile of the MoDem voter (and today, UMP voter) seems to be the profile of the voter who will certainly vote in Euros. Though I believe that the composition of the MoDem's electorate in 2009 will be quite different from that of the UDF in 2004, despite polling in the same general area.

I think the surprise this election will be the PCF-PG. I have tendency to think that the "old" PCF has a better base with workers than the NPA. The French Trots have never had that huge of a base with workers, or if they do it's much smaller than one would expect. And Besancenot isn't widely popular with workers. That Socialist activist who yelled at him at a demonstration in Paris two-three days ago is a widespread sentiment, IMO. I think workers in difficulty don't like Besancenot showing up to exploit their difficulties and problems for his own personal political gain.

I don't really think the FN will do that good, but neither will Libertas. Libertas should be happy with 2 seats, though falling to only one (the Viscount) is certainly possible.

[more later, I'm in a rush].

Agreed

[big bad fab]

The MoDem will probably do slightly better than the UDF did in 2004, though not by that much (13-14% seems to be a good estimate). The profile of the MoDem voter (and today, UMP voter) seems to be the profile of the voter who will certainly vote in Euros. Though I believe that the composition of the MoDem's electorate in 2009 will be quite different from that of the UDF in 2004, despite polling in the same general area.

I think the surprise this election will be the PCF-PG. I have tendency to think that the "old" PCF has a better base with workers than the NPA. The French Trots have never had that huge of a base with workers, or if they do it's much smaller than one would expect. And Besancenot isn't widely popular with workers. That Socialist activist who yelled at him at a demonstration in Paris two-three days ago is a widespread sentiment, IMO. I think workers in difficulty don't like Besancenot showing up to exploit their difficulties and problems for his own personal political gain.

I don't really think the FN will do that good, but neither will Libertas. Libertas should be happy with 2 seats, though falling to only one (the Viscount) is certainly possible.

[more later, I'm in a rush].

I long thought PG would the surprise, but no longer. In French medias, they aren't considered as the "new" little thing.
In fact, the campaign is so asleep, it's difficult for anyone to make a difference.

[Hash]

A new Ifop poll for La Croix [the Catho newspaper] (May 15)

UMP 26% (-1%)
PS 21.5% (nc)
MoDem 14% (+0.5%)
Greenies 8% (+1%)
FN 7.5% (nc)
NPA 7.5% (+0.5%)
PCF-PG 6.5% (nc)
Libertas 5% (nc)
LO 2% (nc)
DLR not polled
Others 2% (nc)

But the most interesting thing here is the religious breakdown (obviously they have, since it's for La Croix!)

The Cathos (aka those who go to church often and stuff)

UMP 42%
PS 16%
MoDem 16%
Libertas 14%
Greenies 5%
FN 4%
NPA 1%
PCF-PG 0.5%
LO 0.5%
Others 1%

The officially Catholics

UMP 28%
PS 20%
MoDem 14%
FN 10.5%
Greenies 7.5%
NPA 6.5%
PCF-PG 4.5%
Libertas 4.5%
LO 2%
Others 2.5%

The HEATHENS! GODLESS LIBERALS!

PS 24.5%
UMP 16%
MoDem 13%
NPA 12%
Greenies 11%
PCF-PG 11%
FN 6%
LO 3%
Libertas 1%
Others 2.5%

In a February 2007 poll by Ifop for La Croix, the Cathos split 42% for Sarkozy, 18% for Bayrou, 16% for Royal, 16% for Le Pen, and 4% for de Villiers. Heathens split 33% for Royal, 16% each for Sarkozy and Bayrou, 11% for Le Pen, 6% for Besancenot, and 5% for Arlette. Nationally, the poll gave Sarko 28, Royal 27, Bayrou 18, Le Pen 12.

In a runoff which they polled to be 51-49 for Sarko, Cathos went 72-28 for Sarko and Heathens split 67-33 for Royal.

Amusing poll, and is all stuff dealing with religious practice and elections in France. A poll of Muslims would be amusing, and polls of Jews and Protestants (provided they find them) would be predictable but fun.

http://www.ifop.com/europe/docs/europeennes2009_7.pdf

Anyways, I updated by analysis. https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=89303.msg2003842#msg2003842

[Hash]

LeMonde.fr reports this Ifop junk poll from May 16

UMP 29% (+3%)
PS 23.5% (+2%)
MoDem 12% (-2%)
Greenies 12% (+4%)
FN 6% (-1.5%)
NPA 5% (-2.5%)
PCF-PG 6% (-0.5%)
DLR 2%
Libertas 1.5% (-3.5%) wtflolwtf :?
LO 1% (-1%)
Others 2% (nc)

Ifop doesn't have this on its site, so I'm not sure if this is LeMonde being weird or if this crap is legitimate junk. But yeah, I wouldn't trust this. MPF at 1.5%? Behind the angry Gaullists?

[PGSable]

The deadline for declaring lists was yesterday (Friday) evening. In total, there are 161 lists in the eight constituencies. The ministry of the interior will publish the final list of candidates on Monday.

[Hash]

So, the various lists are, apart from the biggies.

NC: Supports UMP everywhere 'xcept DOM-TOM where they're running alone.
Royalists: Ouest, IdF, Centre, DOMTOM
Communists: an actual party, seems to be a Marxist-Leninist/Stalinist joke outfit led by a former angry lunatic PCF Senator from Paris. Everywhere save DOM-TOM
Europe décroissance: A bunch of people who favour negative economic growth. Go live in Niger or North Korea, kooks. Running everywhere save DOM-TOM.
CNI: The old CNI, once the main party of the Fourth Republic's right, it was destroyed by the Fifth Republic and Giscard's creation of the RIs in 1962. Supported FN in 1986, supported RPR-UMP until 2008. NW, SE, SW, IdF, DOM-TOM. Supports UMP in other places
Europe, démocratie, espéranto: Esperanto people, running everywhere as in 2004
FN dissidents: Carl Lang and his Party of France in Nord-Ouest (Lang's constituency) and Massif-Centre. Jean-Claude Martinez in Sud-Ouest.
Union des Gens: Anti-politician joke outfit, it seems
Rassemblement pour l'Initiative citoyenne: ?? See above, maybe.
Cannabis sans frontière in IdF: Marijuana people
La terre sinon rien in IdF: Tree-huggers
Europe de Gibraltar à Jérusalem in IdF: Probably some federalist thing
Pour une France et une Europe plus fraternelles in IdF: ??
Solidarité France in IdF: ?? With the name Solidarity, probably a bunch of lazy-ass communists.
Citoyenneté Culture Européennes in IdF: ??
Batasuna/ETA/Euskal Herriarien Alde: Sud-Ouest obviously
EAJ-PNB (Euskadi Europan): Sud-Ouest obviously.
Humanist Party: Humanist party thingee in a few places only.
Overseas Alliance: This is something to watch. Successor list to Verges' winning list Overseas in 2004. Led by Élie Hoarau, a former PCR deputy and includes Madeleine de Grandmaison (MEP since Verges resigned) and Gaston Tong Sang's party in Polynesia. Supprted by PCF-PG.

And my endorsement goes to: Strollad Breizh-Parti Breton: Ouest only.

[Hash]

More CSA junk

UMP 26% (-2)
PS 21% (-1)
MoDem 14% (+1)
Greenies 9% (-1)
FN 7% (+1)
Libertas 6% (+1)
NPA 6% (+1)
Left 5% (+1)
AEI 2% (nc)
LO 1% (-1)
DLR 1% (nc)
turnout 46%

CSA is always overestimating the FN (16.5% for Le Pen in 2007, he got 10.4%), so discard that number. They've also decided to copy the numbers other pollsters have been getting for the other parties (their numbers for the PCF-PG now make some sense), though Libertas is too high.

[Antonio the Sixth]

A new Ifop poll for La Croix [the Catho newspaper] (May 15)

UMP 26% (-1%)
PS 21.5% (nc)
MoDem 14% (+0.5%)
Greenies 8% (+1%)
FN 7.5% (nc)
NPA 7.5% (+0.5%)
PCF-PG 6.5% (nc)
Libertas 5% (nc)
LO 2% (nc)
DLR not polled
Others 2% (nc)

But the most interesting thing here is the religious breakdown (obviously they have, since it's for La Croix!)

The Cathos (aka those who go to church often and stuff)

UMP 42%
PS 16%
MoDem 16%
Libertas 14%
Greenies 5%
FN 4%
NPA 1%
PCF-PG 0.5%
LO 0.5%
Others 1%

The officially Catholics

UMP 28%
PS 20%
MoDem 14%
FN 10.5%
Greenies 7.5%
NPA 6.5%
PCF-PG 4.5%
Libertas 4.5%
LO 2%
Others 2.5%

The HEATHENS! GODLESS LIBERALS!

PS 24.5%
UMP 16%
MoDem 13%
NPA 12%
Greenies 11%
PCF-PG 11%
FN 6%
LO 3%
Libertas 1%
Others 2.5%

In a February 2007 poll by Ifop for La Croix, the Cathos split 42% for Sarkozy, 18% for Bayrou, 16% for Royal, 16% for Le Pen, and 4% for de Villiers. Heathens split 33% for Royal, 16% each for Sarkozy and Bayrou, 11% for Le Pen, 6% for Besancenot, and 5% for Arlette. Nationally, the poll gave Sarko 28, Royal 27, Bayrou 18, Le Pen 12.

In a runoff which they polled to be 51-49 for Sarko, Cathos went 72-28 for Sarko and Heathens split 67-33 for Royal.

Amusing poll, and is all stuff dealing with religious practice and elections in France. A poll of Muslims would be amusing, and polls of Jews and Protestants (provided they find them) would be predictable but fun.

http://www.ifop.com/europe/docs/europeennes2009_7.pdf

Anyways, I updated by analysis. https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=89303.msg2003842#msg2003842

Wow. I knew Cathos were more rightist than the average, but these numbers really stun me.
My great fear is that UMP could gradually transform itself in a GOP-type religioreactionary party.

[MaxQue]

A new Ifop poll for La Croix [the Catho newspaper] (May 15)

UMP 26% (-1%)
PS 21.5% (nc)
MoDem 14% (+0.5%)
Greenies 8% (+1%)
FN 7.5% (nc)
NPA 7.5% (+0.5%)
PCF-PG 6.5% (nc)
Libertas 5% (nc)
LO 2% (nc)
DLR not polled
Others 2% (nc)

But the most interesting thing here is the religious breakdown (obviously they have, since it's for La Croix!)

The Cathos (aka those who go to church often and stuff)

UMP 42%
PS 16%
MoDem 16%
Libertas 14%
Greenies 5%
FN 4%
NPA 1%
PCF-PG 0.5%
LO 0.5%
Others 1%

The officially Catholics

UMP 28%
PS 20%
MoDem 14%
FN 10.5%
Greenies 7.5%
NPA 6.5%
PCF-PG 4.5%
Libertas 4.5%
LO 2%
Others 2.5%

The HEATHENS! GODLESS LIBERALS!

PS 24.5%
UMP 16%
MoDem 13%
NPA 12%
Greenies 11%
PCF-PG 11%
FN 6%
LO 3%
Libertas 1%
Others 2.5%

In a February 2007 poll by Ifop for La Croix, the Cathos split 42% for Sarkozy, 18% for Bayrou, 16% for Royal, 16% for Le Pen, and 4% for de Villiers. Heathens split 33% for Royal, 16% each for Sarkozy and Bayrou, 11% for Le Pen, 6% for Besancenot, and 5% for Arlette. Nationally, the poll gave Sarko 28, Royal 27, Bayrou 18, Le Pen 12.

In a runoff which they polled to be 51-49 for Sarko, Cathos went 72-28 for Sarko and Heathens split 67-33 for Royal.

Amusing poll, and is all stuff dealing with religious practice and elections in France. A poll of Muslims would be amusing, and polls of Jews and Protestants (provided they find them) would be predictable but fun.

http://www.ifop.com/europe/docs/europeennes2009_7.pdf

Anyways, I updated by analysis. https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=89303.msg2003842#msg2003842

Wow. I knew Cathos were more rightist than the average, but these numbers really stun me.
My great fear is that UMP could gradually transform itself in a GOP-type religioreactionary party.

I think than this will not happen. The separation of church and state seems important for most of the French and there is not so much elected right-wing people, except Boutin and Vanneste.

[Antonio the Sixth]

A new Ifop poll for La Croix [the Catho newspaper] (May 15)

UMP 26% (-1%)
PS 21.5% (nc)
MoDem 14% (+0.5%)
Greenies 8% (+1%)
FN 7.5% (nc)
NPA 7.5% (+0.5%)
PCF-PG 6.5% (nc)
Libertas 5% (nc)
LO 2% (nc)
DLR not polled
Others 2% (nc)

But the most interesting thing here is the religious breakdown (obviously they have, since it's for La Croix!)

The Cathos (aka those who go to church often and stuff)

UMP 42%
PS 16%
MoDem 16%
Libertas 14%
Greenies 5%
FN 4%
NPA 1%
PCF-PG 0.5%
LO 0.5%
Others 1%

The officially Catholics

UMP 28%
PS 20%
MoDem 14%
FN 10.5%
Greenies 7.5%
NPA 6.5%
PCF-PG 4.5%
Libertas 4.5%
LO 2%
Others 2.5%

The HEATHENS! GODLESS LIBERALS!

PS 24.5%
UMP 16%
MoDem 13%
NPA 12%
Greenies 11%
PCF-PG 11%
FN 6%
LO 3%
Libertas 1%
Others 2.5%

In a February 2007 poll by Ifop for La Croix, the Cathos split 42% for Sarkozy, 18% for Bayrou, 16% for Royal, 16% for Le Pen, and 4% for de Villiers. Heathens split 33% for Royal, 16% each for Sarkozy and Bayrou, 11% for Le Pen, 6% for Besancenot, and 5% for Arlette. Nationally, the poll gave Sarko 28, Royal 27, Bayrou 18, Le Pen 12.

In a runoff which they polled to be 51-49 for Sarko, Cathos went 72-28 for Sarko and Heathens split 67-33 for Royal.

Amusing poll, and is all stuff dealing with religious practice and elections in France. A poll of Muslims would be amusing, and polls of Jews and Protestants (provided they find them) would be predictable but fun.

http://www.ifop.com/europe/docs/europeennes2009_7.pdf

Anyways, I updated by analysis. https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=89303.msg2003842#msg2003842

Wow. I knew Cathos were more rightist than the average, but these numbers really stun me.
My great fear is that UMP could gradually transform itself in a GOP-type religioreactionary party.

I think than this will not happen. The separation of church and state seems important for most of the French and there is not so much elected right-wing people, except Boutin and Vanneste.

I hope you're right, though I personally would add Sarkozy in your list.

[MaxQue]

A new Ifop poll for La Croix [the Catho newspaper] (May 15)

UMP 26% (-1%)
PS 21.5% (nc)
MoDem 14% (+0.5%)
Greenies 8% (+1%)
FN 7.5% (nc)
NPA 7.5% (+0.5%)
PCF-PG 6.5% (nc)
Libertas 5% (nc)
LO 2% (nc)
DLR not polled
Others 2% (nc)

But the most interesting thing here is the religious breakdown (obviously they have, since it's for La Croix!)

The Cathos (aka those who go to church often and stuff)

UMP 42%
PS 16%
MoDem 16%
Libertas 14%
Greenies 5%
FN 4%
NPA 1%
PCF-PG 0.5%
LO 0.5%
Others 1%

The officially Catholics

UMP 28%
PS 20%
MoDem 14%
FN 10.5%
Greenies 7.5%
NPA 6.5%
PCF-PG 4.5%
Libertas 4.5%
LO 2%
Others 2.5%

The HEATHENS! GODLESS LIBERALS!

PS 24.5%
UMP 16%
MoDem 13%
NPA 12%
Greenies 11%
PCF-PG 11%
FN 6%
LO 3%
Libertas 1%
Others 2.5%

In a February 2007 poll by Ifop for La Croix, the Cathos split 42% for Sarkozy, 18% for Bayrou, 16% for Royal, 16% for Le Pen, and 4% for de Villiers. Heathens split 33% for Royal, 16% each for Sarkozy and Bayrou, 11% for Le Pen, 6% for Besancenot, and 5% for Arlette. Nationally, the poll gave Sarko 28, Royal 27, Bayrou 18, Le Pen 12.

In a runoff which they polled to be 51-49 for Sarko, Cathos went 72-28 for Sarko and Heathens split 67-33 for Royal.

Amusing poll, and is all stuff dealing with religious practice and elections in France. A poll of Muslims would be amusing, and polls of Jews and Protestants (provided they find them) would be predictable but fun.

http://www.ifop.com/europe/docs/europeennes2009_7.pdf

Anyways, I updated by analysis. https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=89303.msg2003842#msg2003842

Wow. I knew Cathos were more rightist than the average, but these numbers really stun me.
My great fear is that UMP could gradually transform itself in a GOP-type religioreactionary party.

I think than this will not happen. The separation of church and state seems important for most of the French and there is not so much elected right-wing people, except Boutin and Vanneste.

I hope you're right, though I personally would add Sarkozy in your list.

He hasn't quoted the Bible yet in a debate.

[Antonio the Sixth]

He's not stupid : he knows that making Frenchs accept those sillinesses require time and tactics. But his "positive secularism" and his past speech are just scaring for true french secularist, and they announce a clearly new vision of religion by politicians.

[Hash]

A new Ifop poll for La Croix [the Catho newspaper] (May 15)

UMP 26% (-1%)
PS 21.5% (nc)
MoDem 14% (+0.5%)
Greenies 8% (+1%)
FN 7.5% (nc)
NPA 7.5% (+0.5%)
PCF-PG 6.5% (nc)
Libertas 5% (nc)
LO 2% (nc)
DLR not polled
Others 2% (nc)

But the most interesting thing here is the religious breakdown (obviously they have, since it's for La Croix!)

The Cathos (aka those who go to church often and stuff)

UMP 42%
PS 16%
MoDem 16%
Libertas 14%
Greenies 5%
FN 4%
NPA 1%
PCF-PG 0.5%
LO 0.5%
Others 1%

The officially Catholics

UMP 28%
PS 20%
MoDem 14%
FN 10.5%
Greenies 7.5%
NPA 6.5%
PCF-PG 4.5%
Libertas 4.5%
LO 2%
Others 2.5%

The HEATHENS! GODLESS LIBERALS!

PS 24.5%
UMP 16%
MoDem 13%
NPA 12%
Greenies 11%
PCF-PG 11%
FN 6%
LO 3%
Libertas 1%
Others 2.5%

In a February 2007 poll by Ifop for La Croix, the Cathos split 42% for Sarkozy, 18% for Bayrou, 16% for Royal, 16% for Le Pen, and 4% for de Villiers. Heathens split 33% for Royal, 16% each for Sarkozy and Bayrou, 11% for Le Pen, 6% for Besancenot, and 5% for Arlette. Nationally, the poll gave Sarko 28, Royal 27, Bayrou 18, Le Pen 12.

In a runoff which they polled to be 51-49 for Sarko, Cathos went 72-28 for Sarko and Heathens split 67-33 for Royal.

Amusing poll, and is all stuff dealing with religious practice and elections in France. A poll of Muslims would be amusing, and polls of Jews and Protestants (provided they find them) would be predictable but fun.

http://www.ifop.com/europe/docs/europeennes2009_7.pdf

Anyways, I updated by analysis. https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=89303.msg2003842#msg2003842

Wow. I knew Cathos were more rightist than the average, but these numbers really stun me.
My great fear is that UMP could gradually transform itself in a GOP-type religioreactionary party.

Now, now, let's calm down, shall we.

These hardline Cathos are a tiny minority of French people, and at max a third of French Catholics. I have a hard time seeing the UMP becoming a Christian right party, firstly because no such thing has ever been close to a major party at any time in history, and because there are too few hardliners. And because, you know, secularism and the decline of Catholic practice.

You'll always get a few Christian rightists like Boutin or Pinte, but nowhere close to them becoming a very strong caucus a la GOP. If the UMP tried to become a Christian right party, which it won't obviously, there would be a major revolt within the party itself. Remember, the Rads, Gaullists, liberals and so forth. Even the CDS wing of the UMP isn't Christian right (far from it in fact).

He's not stupid : he knows that making Frenchs accept those sillinesses require time and tactics. But his "positive secularism" and his past speech are just scaring for true french secularist, and they announce a clearly new vision of religion by politicians.

Sarkozy is one politician. He's not the whole party (though it may seem like it).

[Hash]

I have found the 1999 results calculated by constituency.

LO-LCR (5.18%)
SE: 4.5% / SW: 4.9% / W: 4.8% / NW: 6.3% / IdF: 5.5% / E: 5.3% / MC: 5%

Greenies (9.7%)
SE: 9.9% / SW: 8.7% / W: 10.4% / NW: 8% / IdF: 12.8% / E: 9.8% / MC: 8%

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wow. I knew Cathos were more rightist than the average, but these numbers really stun me.
My great fear is that UMP could gradually transform itself in a GOP-type religioreactionary party.

Now, now, let's calm down, shall we.

These hardline Cathos are a tiny minority of French people, and at max a third of French Catholics. I have a hard time seeing the UMP becoming a Christian right party, firstly because no such thing has ever been close to a major party at any time in history, and because there are too few hardliners. And because, you know, secularism and the decline of Catholic practice.

You'll always get a few Christian rightists like Boutin or Pinte, but nowhere close to them becoming a very strong caucus a la GOP. If the UMP tried to become a Christian right party, which it won't obviously, there would be a major revolt within the party itself. Remember, the Rads, Gaullists, liberals and so forth. Even the CDS wing of the UMP isn't Christian right (far from it in fact).

I know, I know. You're right, but things change. There is apparently no reason to think it could be so, but some today's trends give me a bad feeling.

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Sarkozy is one politician. He's not the whole party (though it may seem like it).[/quote]

The capacity of UMP to blindly and strongly support one man as if he was the messiah has always frightened me.

[big bad fab]

I can tell you many so-called "sarkozysts" would be glad to get rid of him if they were able to have a moderate and electable candidate in his place.

The UMP is not the party of Nicolas the Messiah.

The problem with other guys is that: Juppé is deeply unpopular, despite his brightness.
Villepin is a mad man and the militancy inside the UMP takes him responsible for many disasters for the right since 1995.
Baroin is far too young and "chiraquien".
Pécresse may be a solution but for 2017.
Copé is the only one who is ready, but he has an image of technocrat.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I can tell you many so-called "sarkozysts" would be glad to get rid of him if they were able to have a moderate and electable candidate in his place.

The UMP is not the party of Nicolas the Messiah.

Maybe they would, I don't know them. But they actually support everything Sarkozy does as he was a Great and wise man, a visionary who is above every other politician. Probably they don't think so, but that's irrilevant.

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Juppé and Villepin are remembered as Chirac's disastrous Prime Ministers and were highly responsible of his unpopularity at the end of his term.
The way Pécresse is handling the University crisis proves she's a perfect "Sarko-girl" and she wouldn't be a better leader in my opinion.
Finally, the only thing Copé wants is taking Sarko's place when he will be so unpopular and "usé". He will do what Sarko did with Chirac, and what Chirac did with Giscard. It's a tradition for the right to "kill his father". But he's not a moderate alternative to Sarko.

[Hash]

Wow. I knew Cathos were more rightist than the average, but these numbers really stun me.
My great fear is that UMP could gradually transform itself in a GOP-type religioreactionary party.

Now, now, let's calm down, shall we.

These hardline Cathos are a tiny minority of French people, and at max a third of French Catholics. I have a hard time seeing the UMP becoming a Christian right party, firstly because no such thing has ever been close to a major party at any time in history, and because there are too few hardliners. And because, you know, secularism and the decline of Catholic practice.

You'll always get a few Christian rightists like Boutin or Pinte, but nowhere close to them becoming a very strong caucus a la GOP. If the UMP tried to become a Christian right party, which it won't obviously, there would be a major revolt within the party itself. Remember, the Rads, Gaullists, liberals and so forth. Even the CDS wing of the UMP isn't Christian right (far from it in fact).

I know, I know. You're right, but things change. There is apparently no reason to think it could be so, but some today's trends give me a bad feeling.

rofl. What trends? The only trend I'm seeing is the decline of religious practice and the decline of church-going Catholicism.

Sarkozy's words are nothing but words, since he knows that he can't do anything with secularism that won't create massive street demonstrations and party rebellions.

[big bad fab]

Wow. I knew Cathos were more rightist than the average, but these numbers really stun me.
My great fear is that UMP could gradually transform itself in a GOP-type religioreactionary party.

Now, now, let's calm down, shall we.

These hardline Cathos are a tiny minority of French people, and at max a third of French Catholics. I have a hard time seeing the UMP becoming a Christian right party, firstly because no such thing has ever been close to a major party at any time in history, and because there are too few hardliners. And because, you know, secularism and the decline of Catholic practice.

You'll always get a few Christian rightists like Boutin or Pinte, but nowhere close to them becoming a very strong caucus a la GOP. If the UMP tried to become a Christian right party, which it won't obviously, there would be a major revolt within the party itself. Remember, the Rads, Gaullists, liberals and so forth. Even the CDS wing of the UMP isn't Christian right (far from it in fact).

I know, I know. You're right, but things change. There is apparently no reason to think it could be so, but some today's trends give me a bad feeling.

rofl. What trends? The only trend I'm seeing is the decline of religious practice and the decline of church-going Catholicism.

Sarkozy's words are nothing but words, since he knows that he can't do anything with secularism that won't create massive street demonstrations and party rebellions.

Yep, I agree (unfortunately, as for me).

Hate in French medias against Benedict XVI, after some (astonishingly long...) years of relative neutrality (due to "emotional" mourning of John Paul II), is here to show that Catholicism is politically, socially and even religiously dead in France.

Do you know how many new priests there are in France each year ? No more than 120.... For 45 000 churches and something like 14 000 parishes....
Are you frightened, Antonio ?