European Elections 2009 (France)

[MaxQue]

Considering than they killed the first one, that is ridiculous.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If only it was a gun. Now that would be funny.

The FN's campaign is attracting some criticism (much deservedly so).

In the Sud-Ouest, Louis Aliot started the game by publishing this poster:



The FN claims Jean Jaurès was not a Marxist but in fact a nationalist, who was strongly attached to the concept of nationalism, patriotism, and so forth. Aliot wrote that Jaurès strongly opposed the German annexation of Alsace-Lorraine (no wai rly).

In the Nord-Ouest, now Jr. has continued the game with this poster:



Roger Salengro was the SFIO Mayor of Lille and Minister of the Interior during the Front populaire era. Jr. has said that Salengro supported the concept of "national preference" in terms of immigration. Jr. also said that Salengro had once said that "in a nation of 300,000 unemployed, there's no need for immigrant workers". Of course, the FN forgot that this same man passed a law dissolving far-right ligues in 1936 and sparked a violent and totally false wave of attacks from the far-right press at the time. They accused him of deserting in October 1915 (in reality, he was taken prisoner by the Germans and freed in 1918) and they even started rumours saying he was homosexual. Salengro committed suicide.

This whole campaign is disgusting, but nothing new coming from the fascists.

Disgusting and revolting. The only good news is that they are forced to use this sort of message only because FN is a dying party that has no more future. If they have chosen to dy so ridiculous, maybe someone will remember them...

I read on Charlie hebdo, a satyrical but, despite his appearance, very intelligent weekly, this comment ( I prefere not to translate it to prevent english errors ) :
"Louis Aliot, candidat du FN aux élections européennes dans le Sud-Ouest, a utilisé un portrait de Jean Jaurès sur ses affiches de campagne, avec le slogan "Jaurès aurait voté Front National". Dommage que l'extrême droite l'ait assassiné avant."
It summarizes everything.

[Hash]

The far-right effectively killed both of them. They directly killed Jaurès and they played a large role, if not the entirety, in Salengro's suicide following their false and revolting attacks on his person.

[Tender Branson]

The Libertas candidates:

At least France has Libertas candidates ...

Isn't it funny that Libertas cannot find a single candidate in the eurosceptic hell that is known as Austria ?

[Hash]

The Libertas candidates:

At least France has Libertas candidates ...

Only because His Excellency the Viscount wants it to be so.

[Hash]

2 rather bad pollsters.

CSA, which is the French Zogby. It's also owned by Vincent Bolloré, though that doesn't automatically make it awful as the left likes to think.
UMP 27%
PS 25%
MoDem 12%
Greenies 10%
FN 8%
NPA 7%
Libertas 5%
PCF-PG 3%
LO 2%
DLR 1%

While they don't seem too insane on the first numbers, their numbers for the smaller parties are most likely outliers. The FN is not going to poll 8%, which is only slightly below the 2004 level, and the Left Front won't be reduced to just 3%.

OpinionWay, which is also rather bad. The lefties have said that it is a Le Figaro-UMP pollster. This sample is about 490 people only and I think it's an interwebs poll.
UMP 28%
PS 23%
MoDem 12%
Greenies 10%
NPA 7%
FN 6%
Libertas 5%
PCF-PG 5%
Others 3%
DLR 1%

58% will vote based on national issues, 40% based on European issues. 40% won't vote based on Sarkozy, 38% will voice their disapproval, 20% will voice their approval.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

These polls miss THE most important: abstention.

[Hash]

These polls miss THE most important: abstention.

It's quasi-impossible to measure abstention well (CSA sez 49%, OW says 51%), though as it stands right now, I'd say abstention will break 60%.

Of course, I think most pollsters are now polling only the 50ish percent who say they'll vote for sure.

[Math]

It's quasi-impossible to measure abstention well (CSA sez 49%, OW says 51%), though as it stands right now, I'd say abstention will break 60%.

I think turnout will be quite higher than in 2004, because then, voters took out their dissatisfaction with the government two months before during the regional elections. Of course, there was no economic crisis too...

[Hash]

It's quasi-impossible to measure abstention well (CSA sez 49%, OW says 51%), though as it stands right now, I'd say abstention will break 60%.

I think turnout will be quite higher than in 2004, because then, voters took out their dissatisfaction with the government two months before during the regional elections. Of course, there was no economic crisis too...

Turnout was 43% in 2004, FTR.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

The question of using these elections to express the discontent is the question basically. The call of PS for so has been very weak until now, I didn't hear NPA on this, the only strong call for this comes from Mélenchon, and I would be very surprised of a success for him here, the guy can't gather a lot I tend to think, but well, never know too...

Frankly, I tend to think that people would more use the protesting methods of the street instead of using this election, plus, May will have passed, things could have happen.

In that way, I tend to think that the breaking of the 60% for the abstention is accurate.

[Hash]

The question of using these elections to express the discontent is the question basically. The call of PS for so has been very weak until now, I didn't hear NPA on this, the only strong call for this comes from Mélenchon, and I would be very surprised of a success for him here, the guy can't gather a lot I tend to think, but well, never know too...

This government's approval isn't as sh**tty as the government's approval was in 2004, so there will be less of a reason to vote for some people.

[Antonio the Sixth]

2 rather bad pollsters.

CSA, which is the French Zogby. It's also owned by Vincent Bolloré, though that doesn't automatically make it awful as the left likes to think.
UMP 27%
PS 25%
MoDem 12%
Greenies 10%
FN 8%
NPA 7%
Libertas 5%
PCF-PG 3%
LO 2%
DLR 1%

While they don't seem too insane on the first numbers, their numbers for the smaller parties are most likely outliers. The FN is not going to poll 8%, which is only slightly below the 2004 level, and the Left Front won't be reduced to just 3%.

OpinionWay, which is also rather bad. The lefties have said that it is a Le Figaro-UMP pollster. This sample is about 490 people only and I think it's an interwebs poll.
UMP 28%
PS 23%
MoDem 12%
Greenies 10%
NPA 7%
FN 6%
Libertas 5%
PCF-PG 5%
Others 3%
DLR 1%

58% will vote based on national issues, 40% based on European issues. 40% won't vote based on Sarkozy, 38% will voice their disapproval, 20% will voice their approval.

Two right-leaning polls that show the Ps close to UMP... I think we can win !

[Hash]

2 rather bad pollsters.

CSA, which is the French Zogby. It's also owned by Vincent Bolloré, though that doesn't automatically make it awful as the left likes to think.
UMP 27%
PS 25%
MoDem 12%
Greenies 10%
FN 8%
NPA 7%
Libertas 5%
PCF-PG 3%
LO 2%
DLR 1%

While they don't seem too insane on the first numbers, their numbers for the smaller parties are most likely outliers. The FN is not going to poll 8%, which is only slightly below the 2004 level, and the Left Front won't be reduced to just 3%.

OpinionWay, which is also rather bad. The lefties have said that it is a Le Figaro-UMP pollster. This sample is about 490 people only and I think it's an interwebs poll.
UMP 28%
PS 23%
MoDem 12%
Greenies 10%
NPA 7%
FN 6%
Libertas 5%
PCF-PG 5%
Others 3%
DLR 1%

58% will vote based on national issues, 40% based on European issues. 40% won't vote based on Sarkozy, 38% will voice their disapproval, 20% will voice their approval.

Two right-leaning polls that show the Ps close to UMP... I think we can win !

Two crap pollsters, mostly.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

2 rather bad pollsters.

CSA, which is the French Zogby. It's also owned by Vincent Bolloré, though that doesn't automatically make it awful as the left likes to think.
UMP 27%
PS 25%
MoDem 12%
Greenies 10%
FN 8%
NPA 7%
Libertas 5%
PCF-PG 3%
LO 2%
DLR 1%

While they don't seem too insane on the first numbers, their numbers for the smaller parties are most likely outliers. The FN is not going to poll 8%, which is only slightly below the 2004 level, and the Left Front won't be reduced to just 3%.

OpinionWay, which is also rather bad. The lefties have said that it is a Le Figaro-UMP pollster. This sample is about 490 people only and I think it's an interwebs poll.
UMP 28%
PS 23%
MoDem 12%
Greenies 10%
NPA 7%
FN 6%
Libertas 5%
PCF-PG 5%
Others 3%
DLR 1%

58% will vote based on national issues, 40% based on European issues. 40% won't vote based on Sarkozy, 38% will voice their disapproval, 20% will voice their approval.

Two right-leaning polls that show the Ps close to UMP... I think we can win !

Damn, you're 15 years old an you believe in PS??

[Math]

A new Ifop poll (the one that already try to poll the 2012 presidential election...).

UMP 26,5% (+0,5%)
PS 22,5% (-0,5%)
MoDem 14% (-0,5%)
Greenies 7,5% (+0,5%)
FN 7,5% (+1,5%)
NPA 7% (-2%)
PCF-PG 5,5% (+1,5%)
Libertas 5% (=)
LO 2,5% (-0,5%)
DLR 1,5% (-0,5%)

[Hash]

A new Ifop poll (the one that already try to poll the 2012 presidential election...).

UMP 26,5% (+0,5%)
PS 22,5% (-0,5%)
MoDem 14% (-0,5%)
Greenies 7,5% (+0,5%)
FN 7,5% (+1,5%)
NPA 7% (-2%)
PCF-PG 5,5% (+1,5%)
Libertas 5% (=)
LO 2,5% (-0,5%)
DLR 1,5% (-0,5%)

Ifop is a good pollster, but they've been letting me down a bit lately with their polling. I still probably trust Ipsos first and foremost, and Ifop probably as second-best. Then, well, it goes downhill rapidly.

Ifop is the only pollster that has low numbers for the Greenies, but that is probably explained by their above average numbers for the MoDem.

However, all pollsters seem to be seeing a slight dip in the NPA's support, probably to the benefit of the Communists-Lefties. It will be interesting to see if that holds up, and if the improving numbers for the FN hold up.

[Antonio the Sixth]

2 rather bad pollsters.

CSA, which is the French Zogby. It's also owned by Vincent Bolloré, though that doesn't automatically make it awful as the left likes to think.
UMP 27%
PS 25%
MoDem 12%
Greenies 10%
FN 8%
NPA 7%
Libertas 5%
PCF-PG 3%
LO 2%
DLR 1%

While they don't seem too insane on the first numbers, their numbers for the smaller parties are most likely outliers. The FN is not going to poll 8%, which is only slightly below the 2004 level, and the Left Front won't be reduced to just 3%.

OpinionWay, which is also rather bad. The lefties have said that it is a Le Figaro-UMP pollster. This sample is about 490 people only and I think it's an interwebs poll.
UMP 28%
PS 23%
MoDem 12%
Greenies 10%
NPA 7%
FN 6%
Libertas 5%
PCF-PG 5%
Others 3%
DLR 1%

58% will vote based on national issues, 40% based on European issues. 40% won't vote based on Sarkozy, 38% will voice their disapproval, 20% will voice their approval.

Two right-leaning polls that show the Ps close to UMP... I think we can win !

Damn, you're 15 years old an you believe in PS??

Nothing is eternal. There was a time, in the 80's, when the Democratic Party was in a similar situation that the PS' today.

A new Ifop poll (the one that already try to poll the 2012 presidential election...).

UMP 26,5% (+0,5%)
PS 22,5% (-0,5%)
MoDem 14% (-0,5%)
Greenies 7,5% (+0,5%)
FN 7,5% (+1,5%)
NPA 7% (-2%)
PCF-PG 5,5% (+1,5%)
Libertas 5% (=)
LO 2,5% (-0,5%)
DLR 1,5% (-0,5%)

Not bad numbers... But what ? FN gets more than NPA ? Fascist idiots are decisely hard to die.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Not bad numbers... But what ? FN gets more than NPA ? Fascist idiots are decisely hard to die.

I expect NPA supporters expressing themselves more in streets than in votes, at least they didn't claim for the anti-sarkozy referendum until now.

The month of May will be decisive, Bayrou will very aired with his book against Sarkozy and we have to see what will give in the country the movement of protest until now led by unions.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Not bad numbers... But what ? FN gets more than NPA ? Fascist idiots are decisely hard to die.

I expect NPA supporters expressing themselves more in streets than in votes, at least they didn't claim for the anti-sarkozy referendum until now.

The month of May will be decisive, Bayrou will very aired with his book against Sarkozy and we have to see what will give in the country the movement of protest until now led by unions.

I fear that the PS will be once more invisible...

[big bad fab]

The right is very low. You're almost obliged to take FN into account ! It's completely weird.
The right is as low as under late Raffarin and under Villepin, but the left is completely unable to appear as a conquering and winning force....

What every election since 2004 teaches us is that a unique party of the right is a big mistake.
I was strongly in favour of it when I saw divisions of the 1980s and 1990s. But it was electorally far better !

We need to have something in the centre-right, to prevent Bayrou from gathering some old UDF supporters who haven't yet understood he is just an ambitious maniac, ready to be the Italian-like candidate of a green-left-"other" coalition.

But who can fill the void left by the old UDF ?

Borloo ? Mmmm.... Drinks too much, unable to lead a strong organization.
Barnier ? Not strong enough to lead politicians who can be "bad guys". A pity, that would have been a good idea.
Juppé ? Too much of the old RPR, centrists can't love him enough.
Villepin ? Come on.... The aim is to fight against a mad man, not to have 2 of them !
A young NC politician like Jean-Christophe Lagarde ? Completely unknown.
A moderate UMP that can be identified as "open" and centrist like Serge Lepeltier ? Unknown.

All the "young lions" are from the mainstream UMP (Copé, Bertrand, Pécresse, Wauquiez, Chatel, Kosciusko-Morizet,...).

[Antonio the Sixth]

The right is very low. You're almost obliged to take FN into account ! It's completely weird.
The right is as low as under late Raffarin and under Villepin, but the left is completely unable to appear as a conquering and winning force....

What every election since 2004 teaches us is that a unique party of the right is a big mistake.
I was strongly in favour of it when I saw divisions of the 1980s and 1990s. But it was electorally far better !

We need to have something in the centre-right, to prevent Bayrou from gathering some old UDF supporters who haven't yet understood he is just an ambitious maniac, ready to be the Italian-like candidate of a green-left-"other" coalition.

What you say is completely false and prove how it's difficult for people to understand that the center should not necessarily be a moderate right.

[big bad fab]

The right is very low. You're almost obliged to take FN into account ! It's completely weird.
The right is as low as under late Raffarin and under Villepin, but the left is completely unable to appear as a conquering and winning force....

What every election since 2004 teaches us is that a unique party of the right is a big mistake.
I was strongly in favour of it when I saw divisions of the 1980s and 1990s. But it was electorally far better !

We need to have something in the centre-right, to prevent Bayrou from gathering some old UDF supporters who haven't yet understood he is just an ambitious maniac, ready to be the Italian-like candidate of a green-left-"other" coalition.

What you say is completely false and prove how it's difficult for people to understand that the center should not necessarily be a moderate right.

Can't you understand that I'm not talking about political philosophy but political strategy and tactics and elections ?

I'm not talking about the "Centre", a new world of Ideas, "ni droite ni gauche", with a marvelous leader from Béarn,
but about electoral reality: about 40 to 45% of MoDem voters (see good pollsters as IPSOS and IFOP, even SOFRES) are in fact old UDF supporters who would vote for the centre-right if there is one real and strong party, with a real leader, in this place (NC is not, unfortunately).

These voters will be disappointed when Bayrou will be allied with the PS and Greens.
But, at the same time, it's difficult for them to vote for the UMP with Sarkozy or old RPR in the 1st round. This phenomenon is especially clear in Brittany, where the UMP is very weak, because it's too rightist for moderate voters.

Sure, there is real centrists among MoDem voters (about 30-35%). But these ones will never vote for the UMP in the 2nd round. So, they're not interesting in an electoral strategy.

The rest of MoDem voters are from the left and the Greens and come back more easily in the 2nd round. And will come back even in the first round if Strauss-Kahn or Hollande or Valls or Moscovici or even Peillon is candidate in 2012.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The right is very low. You're almost obliged to take FN into account ! It's completely weird.
The right is as low as under late Raffarin and under Villepin, but the left is completely unable to appear as a conquering and winning force....

What every election since 2004 teaches us is that a unique party of the right is a big mistake.
I was strongly in favour of it when I saw divisions of the 1980s and 1990s. But it was electorally far better !

We need to have something in the centre-right, to prevent Bayrou from gathering some old UDF supporters who haven't yet understood he is just an ambitious maniac, ready to be the Italian-like candidate of a green-left-"other" coalition.

What you say is completely false and prove how it's difficult for people to understand that the center should not necessarily be a moderate right.

Can't you understand that I'm not talking about political philosophy but political strategy and tactics and elections ?

I'm not talking about the "Centre", a new world of Ideas, "ni droite ni gauche", with a marvelous leader from Béarn,
but about electoral reality: about 40 to 45% of MoDem voters (see good pollsters as IPSOS and IFOP, even SOFRES) are in fact old UDF supporters who would vote for the centre-right if there is one real and strong party, with a real leader, in this place (NC is not, unfortunately).

These voters will be disappointed when Bayrou will be allied with the PS and Greens.
But, at the same time, it's difficult for them to vote for the UMP with Sarkozy or old RPR in the 1st round. This phenomenon is especially clear in Brittany, where the UMP is very weak, because it's too rightist for moderate voters.

Sure, there is real centrists among MoDem voters (about 30-35%). But these ones will never vote for the UMP in the 2nd round. So, they're not interesting in an electoral strategy.

The rest of MoDem voters are from the left and the Greens and come back more easily in the 2nd round. And will come back even in the first round if Strauss-Kahn or Hollande or Valls or Moscovici or even Peillon is candidate in 2012.

Yes, but the facts has proved that every parties who definited themselves as "center-right" finished to be clones of the rightist party. Do you really think there was a real difference between UDF and RPR political views in the 1980-1990 years ? Today, that's exactly the same between UMP an NC. And Bayou appears to be the one who is able to create an independent centrist party.

[big bad fab]

I must add that you have missed all the debate in the right and the centre-right for a one-party right between 1981 and 2002.

Yes, there was a real difference between UDF and RPR. Moderates against rightists, atlanticists and europeans against gaullists and "souverainistes", social right against liberal right (this difference was between CDS-FD and PR-DL-RPR), "décentralisateurs" against "Jacobins",...

Everybody spoke about "unity", "only one party" during the 1980s and the 1990s, but everybody divided the 2 big parties of the right and even inside each one.
Even inside the parties that made the UDF, there was divisions... the CDS was a good example, with Stasi on the left, Barrot and Méhaignerie in the centre, Boutin on the right and Bayrou everywhere, depending on the time and on the leader....
And there was many wings in the RPR (Pasqua-Séguin e.g.). And there were the "rénovateurs" (Noir, Léotard, Barzach,...).
Etc, etc, etc.

In fact, Chirac made the UMP in 2002 only because everybody (not just the left after Jospin's awful failure) was afraid of Le Pen.
So, the small association "l'Union en Mouvement" was then able to create the UMP.
Of course, almost immediately, as DL was without any big leader after Léotard's end of political life and Madelin's predictable failure, and as FD divided itself, old RPR machinery took control of the UMP, which should have been Chirac's "present" for his heir, Juppé.

Some judicial problems later for the "Chiraquie"..., Sarkozy grasped control of the UMP, as Chirac hadn't any real solution after Juppé and was probably too old to decide otherwise.

Look at the Fougères constituency in Ille-et-Vilaine in 2007 and you'll understand.
Many voters rejected the old UMP candidate (though she was a former UDF-CDS with social and open reputation !) and picked an unknown MoDem candidate, Thierry Benoît, who was elected in the 2nd round thanks to left voters (there wasn't any left candidate in the 2nd round).
Then, Thierry Benoît wanted to re-create the UDF with men like Jean Arthuis and Michel Mercier, but it failed and Benoît is now "apparenté NC"...

Of course, NC isn't this centre-right party that the French right needs electorally.

And, of course, there can be a really centrist party in France.
But with 6-7% of the vote, not 14%, not 19%...

Bayrou just tries not to say the truth (that he is only driven by personal ambition, not ideas) and tries to let centre-right voters believe that one day he can again form an alliance with the UMP (that will NEVER happen) and to let centre-left voters believe that Strauss-Kahn, Hollande or even Royal isn't their "natural" candidate.
The French word for this is "imposture".