MN Sen Recount (UPDATE: Stuart Smalley certified winner, lawsuit forthcoming)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

BTW check this one for a laugh: http://senaterecount.startribune.com/media/ballotPDFs/Olmsted_Kalmar_challenged%20ballot%202.pdf

I think that's a pretty clear Franken vote upon looking at the rest of the ballot

Agreed but the challenges are still amusing.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OMG that ballot is even more awesome: http://senaterecount.startribune.com/media/ballotPDFs/beltrami_W2_challengedballot1.pdf

[Sam Spade]

Some of these ballots are quite funny.  And of course, the reasons for some of the challenges are almost as funny.

[Sam Spade]

http://senaterecount.startribune.com/media/ballotPDFs/washington_WoodburyP7_challengedballot49.pdf

The Franken/Bachmann voter...

Clearly someone who needs to be locked in a mental institution or shot immediately...

[Flying Dog]

http://senaterecount.startribune.com/media/ballotPDFs/washington_WoodburyP7_challengedballot49.pdf

The Franken/Bachmann voter...

Clearly someone who needs to be locked in a mental institution or shot immediately...

Eh, the two have a lot in common if you think about it.

[Lunar]

http://senaterecount.startribune.com/media/ballotPDFs/washington_WoodburyP7_challengedballot49.pdf

The Franken/Bachmann voter...

Clearly someone who needs to be locked in a mental institution or shot immediately...

Also someone who thinks you're supposed to trace the edge of the bubble.

Most likely someone just voting randomly

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What the fuck is the logic behind this challenge?

http://senaterecount.startribune.com/media/ballotPDFs/mahnomen_LakeGrove_challengedballot1.pdf

"Inconsistency"? I'd like to give that challenger a black eye.

[Ronnie]

What the fuck is the logic behind this challenge?

http://senaterecount.startribune.com/media/ballotPDFs/mahnomen_LakeGrove_challengedballot1.pdf

"Inconsistency"? I'd like to give that challenger a black eye.

Whoa, that's a really retarded challenge.

[cinyc]

What the fuck is the logic behind this challenge?

http://senaterecount.startribune.com/media/ballotPDFs/mahnomen_LakeGrove_challengedballot1.pdf

"Inconsistency"? I'd like to give that challenger a black eye.

Well, we can't tell if they used a different color ink to fill in the Franken bubble than the rest of the ballot.  And they didn't vote for President, but voted for Senate.  Bizarre. 

It's probably a good Franken vote.

[Meeker]

Does anyone else take issue with determining voter intent based upon who they voted for in other races? Sure if someone voted for Democrats in every other race there's probably a good chance they voted for Franken, but is "They voted for these people, so they must have voted for this person" really a fair and accurate judgment call? It just seems like quite a jump for us to make.

I could maybe see the logic in using it as one of many factors, but even then I'd have some serious concerns...

[Rococo4]

What the fuck is the logic behind this challenge?

http://senaterecount.startribune.com/media/ballotPDFs/mahnomen_LakeGrove_challengedballot1.pdf

"Inconsistency"? I'd like to give that challenger a black eye.

Whoa, that's a really retarded challenge.

at least in b and w it looks different.  prob will count but hard to tell

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Does anyone else take issue with determining voter intent based upon who they voted for in other races? Sure if someone voted for Democrats in every other race there's probably a good chance they voted for Franken, but is "They voted for these people, so they must have voted for this person" really a fair and accurate judgment call? It just seems like quite a jump for us to make.

I could maybe see the logic in using it as one of many factors, but even then I'd have some serious concerns...

Coleman's people are the only ones using that logic. I've seen some of those votes for McCain with the Senate race blank with the reason being "Voter Intent - Rep".

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's another one: http://senaterecount.startribune.com/media/ballotPDFs/fillmore_York_challengedballot1.pdf

An obvious McCain/Franken vote is listed as "Voter Intent Rep"

In all fairness these are all in Fillmore county so it was probably just one idiot there and they'll all be called for Franken no doubt.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

http://senaterecount.startribune.com/media/ballotPDFs/LacQuiParle_DawsonW1_Challengedballot1.pdf

How does this show voter intent was not for Franken?

[minionofmidas]

http://senaterecount.startribune.com/media/ballotPDFs/LacQuiParle_DawsonW1_Challengedballot1.pdf

How does this show voter intent was not for Franken?

It is very clear from the voter's presidential choices that he or she is a confused idiot. It is an established fact that all confused idiots support Coleman. Therefore, clearly the voter voted for Franken rather than Coleman by mistake.

[Politico]

It does not look like Franken is going to pull this off.

[minionofmidas]

What the fuck is the logic behind this challenge?

http://senaterecount.startribune.com/media/ballotPDFs/mahnomen_LakeGrove_challengedballot1.pdf

"Inconsistency"? I'd like to give that challenger a black eye.

Well, we can't tell if they used a different color ink to fill in the Franken bubble than the rest of the ballot.  And they didn't vote for President, but voted for Senate.  Bizarre. 

"Bizarre"? Just a bitter PUMA who couldn't bring itself to vote for a third Bush term either.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What the fuck is the logic behind this challenge?

http://senaterecount.startribune.com/media/ballotPDFs/mahnomen_LakeGrove_challengedballot1.pdf

"Inconsistency"? I'd like to give that challenger a black eye.

Well, we can't tell if they used a different color ink to fill in the Franken bubble than the rest of the ballot.  And they didn't vote for President, but voted for Senate.  Bizarre. 

"Bizarre"? Just a bitter PUMA who couldn't bring itself to vote for a third Bush term either.

And not that rare either; there appear to be some counties in Kentucky where more people voted in the Senate election than the Presidential one.

[Politico]

Yeah, I do not understand Coleman's "inconsistency" challenges. if all voters in Minnesota simply voted a straight ticket, as Coleman's party seems to be arguing quite a bit, then clearly Franken would be the victor as Obama carried the state by ten points.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, I do not understand Coleman's "inconsistency" challenges. if all voters in Minnesota simply voted a straight ticket, as Coleman's party seems to be arguing quite a bit, then clearly Franken would be the victor as Obama carried the state by ten points.

No no no, you see there was good reason to vote Obama/Barkley or Obama/Coleman as Franken got fewer votes than Obama! But the other way round, that's just absurd!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Voting for McCain/Franken does indeed seem odd, but it's not impossible for me to imagine any such scenarios (PUMA types are the most obvious.) More logical than Obama/Bachmann anyway. Of course Coleman's people know these challenges have no chance whatsoever of being upheld, they're just trying to prop up Coleman's lead.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The voter intent on this ballot is not clear? I suppose if you're a big enough idiot to support Norm Coleman you could think that: http://senaterecount.startribune.com/media/ballotPDFs/fillmore_PrestonTwp_challengedballot1.pdf

[SPQR]

The voter intent on this ballot is not clear? I suppose if you're a big enough idiot to support Norm Coleman you could think that: http://senaterecount.startribune.com/media/ballotPDFs/fillmore_PrestonTwp_challengedballot1.pdf

LMAO

[Sam Spade]

Haven't updated the topline results, choosing instead to finish the precinct-by-precinct reports.

According to my unofficial results, which is based on a certain number of assumptions whose error rate should even out between the two candidates, here is what I get, based on SOS.

This is not perfect, as I have not double-checked a few of these results, but it should be fairly good:

SOS
Coleman: 1,044,255 (1,046,101)
Franken: 1,040,285 (1,042,208)

Coleman: +292 (+215)

Actual Changes (these are changes I can ascertain from the numbers or from the extrapolation of assumptions regarding subtractions of votes or challenges)
Coleman: -5
Franken: +43
Total Change: Franken +48

The raw change that occurs if you remove my assumptions regarding subtractions of votes or challenges is Franken +70.

Challenge Gap
Coleman: -1842 (CH by Franken)
Franken: -1965 (CH by Coleman)
Total Gap: Franken +123

The raw change that occurs if you remove the same above-stated assumptions makes the challenge gap Franken +145.

Non-Subtracted Challenges
Coleman: 443
Franken: 395

We must take a moment to discuss these challenges.  To be plain, these are challenges that cannot be directly traced to ballots that have already been counted.  Granted the tracing is based on an assumption, but the assumption is already proving to be correct in the ballots the Star-Tribune has given us.  These ballots can be challenges of blank ballots, overvotes, votes for other candidates.  They can also be challenges of ballots that were not counted in the original count, but were counted in the second count and then challenged.  It is quite possible that Coleman has challenged a number of ballots that were not originally counted as Franken, but were counted as such the second time.  If so, then those numbers would need to be reduced from the Result.

Final Result: Coleman +169 (w/o assumptions: Coleman +147)

Counties to Be Completed
Beltrami (1 precinct) - Star Tribune has reported no change in this precinct already.
Blue Earth (9 precincts)
Brown (100%) - Star Tribune has already reported this.
Dodge (100%)
Hennepin (61 precincts) - Pretty much all precincts are located in urban Minneapolis.
Jackson (100%)
Le Sueur (100%)
Ramsey (34 precincts) - Pretty much outer ring St. Paul suburbs.  All of urban St. Paul has reported.
Rock (100%)
Scott (100%)
Sherburne (100%) - Star Tribune has already reported; SOS is probably just lazy, though I don't blame them.
Stevens (100%)
Winona (100%)
Wright (100%)

[Lunar]

Some challenges are ones with no senate vote (thus no vote was removed) too, on the basis of inconsistency.