MN Sen Recount (UPDATE: Stuart Smalley certified winner, lawsuit forthcoming)

[Sam Spade]

And you thought challenge *overkill* was bad before...  I'm hoping this is a misprint, otherwise I'll have as much *fun* as with Hennepin.

Sherburne
Vote Changes
Coleman -433, Franken -426

Challenges
Coleman 452, Franken 422

...help...

I just saw this as well. This is almost as many challenges as in Hennepin! I understand that the canvassing board has pleaded for help from both sides to reduce the challenge pile. Does that mean that the attys will agree swap challenged ballots and allow them either both in or out at the same time?

http://www.startribune.com/politics/state/35166869.html?elr=KArksLckD8EQDUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aULPQL7PQLanchO7DiUT

[Ronnie]

Coleman is leading by 282 votes, with 91% of precincts reporting.

[Sam Spade]

I'm going and updating results this evening before I go out.

Basically, in addition to the challenge gap, there are actual changes in most of the counties that you can ascertain separate of the challenge gap and all that.

Most of these changes are minor and cancel each other out, both within the county and between the counties.  The only two I noted so far were changes in favor of Franken in Ramsey and St. Louis County of about 30-35 votes each, although that was a couple of days ago and this may have changed. (oddly enough, Hennepin shows very little).

We have another significant change tonight.  Coleman gained about 25 votes in Becker County distinct from challenges.  We'll see if any more appear.

[Sam Spade]

We have another significant change tonight.  Coleman gained about 25 votes in Becker County distinct from challenges.  We'll see if any more appear.

Of course, as soon as I say that, there are more.  Specifically, Coleman lost 25 votes in some Blue Earth County precinct (probably a mistabulation).  Easy come, easy go. 

[muon2]

And you thought challenge *overkill* was bad before...  I'm hoping this is a misprint, otherwise I'll have as much *fun* as with Hennepin.

Sherburne
Vote Changes
Coleman -433, Franken -426

Challenges
Coleman 452, Franken 422

...help...

I just saw this as well. This is almost as many challenges as in Hennepin! I understand that the canvassing board has pleaded for help from both sides to reduce the challenge pile. Does that mean that the attys will agree swap challenged ballots and allow them either both in or out at the same time?

http://www.startribune.com/politics/state/35166869.html?elr=KArksLckD8EQDUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aULPQL7PQLanchO7DiUT

I wonder if the timing of the escalation correlates with the decision of the canvassing board to leave the rejected absentee ballots off the count.

[Eraserhead]

This junk is a done deal, yo.

[Ronnie]

This junk is a done deal, yo.

What is?

[Lunar]

woooow

Both campaigns have completely given into challenging ballots as a propaganda tool

[Lunar]

Guys, this occurs to me after conversation.

If any of the ballots that were initially ruled for one candidate or ruled invalid were, upon inspection, ruled for the opposing side, the other side is guaranteed to challenge.

This recount, pre-challenges, does almost nothing.  Because both sides are going to challenge anything where the judge on the scene reverses the initial ruling!!.  I mean, Coleman is challenging perfectly unquestionable McCain/Franken and McCain/[no one] votes simply under the guise of voter intent (and Franken is doing stupid stuff too).  Both sides are using challenges as a propaganda tool and any vote that is remotely questionable is going to be challenged if votes that are unquestionable are challenged!

Franken is logically expected to gain since Democrats make more errors than Republicans.  But any time these misread ballots or a "determination of intent" occurs that might override the original result, the Coleman/Franken campaign is going go challenge it!

That means we learn almost nothing from this initial recount.  Because if an official finds a ballot and wants to reverse it in favor of Franken from the original count, for example, Coleman's campaign is 150% likely to challenge it.

The only changes that occur right now (99.99%) are the the percentages of challenged ballots.

I think it's wrong to immediately determine this as a Coleman lead (or the inverse, despite what 538 says).

[agcatter]

If Coleman is challenging undervotes (and we don't know that for sure) it doesn't help Franken one bit.  Assuming those challenges are denied (100% assured) it won't help Franken or change the present totals at all since those votes were not counted for either candidate in the first place.

I know Harry Reid has been making noises about the senate possibly getting involved and seating who they deam the winner, but if Franken is behind when the recount ends, that aint happening for a number of reasons.  One is it would be a PR mistake for obvious reasons.  The other is (presuming Chambliss wins in Georgia) you have a dead cinch Republican filibuster with 41 votes.  Believe me, Republicans are not going to sit back and let one of their own with the most votes get squeezed out  by a Reid power play.  Solid 41 votes I can assure you.

Franken's only shot would be to have the courts mandate a bunch of discarded absentee ballots be added to tip the balance.  Actually, the overwhelming majority of those ballots were legitimately tossed.  Even the ones that the courts could (or could not) include are not necessarily favoring Franken even in the event they have to be included. 

Nothing is for sure but at this point, I'd rather be Coleman in spite of what Nate Silver expects to happen.

[Sam Spade]

If any of the ballots that were initially ruled for one candidate or ruled invalid were, upon inspection, ruled for the opposing side, the other side is guaranteed to challenge.

Actually, that's incorrect.  A lot of gains and losses have occurred where no candidate has challenged. 

And in the challenge gap (which should be the number of votes which have *probably* been removed from each side due to challenges) and you get a number similar to the number Franken's camp tossed out.  (slightly higher, but then again, I presumed they might inflate a bit).

[Sam Spade]

If Coleman is challenging undervotes (and we don't know that for sure) it doesn't help Franken one bit. 

Both sides are challenging undervotes/overvotes aggressively, though Franken is probably slightly more aggressive.

[Keystone Phil]

besides the people here that know about what happened there seem to think that it wasn't stolen

Shockingly, they're all Gregoire supporters. Odd, eh?

Shockingly, Rossi supporters don't actually have any evidence of fraud, yet keep implying that there was. Odd, eh?

Wait a minute...I think I just found some Rossi votes in my boxer drawer. Is it too late to get them in?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

besides the people here that know about what happened there seem to think that it wasn't stolen

Shockingly, they're all Gregoire supporters. Odd, eh?

Shockingly, Rossi supporters don't actually have any evidence of fraud, yet keep implying that there was. Odd, eh?

Wait a minute...I think I just found some Rossi votes in my boxer drawer. Is it too late to get them in?

Just put a bunch of Republican Congressional staffers to protest on your front lawn, no problem.

[Lunar]

If any of the ballots that were initially ruled for one candidate or ruled invalid were, upon inspection, ruled for the opposing side, the other side is guaranteed to challenge.

Actually, that's incorrect.  A lot of gains and losses have occurred where no candidate has challenged. 

Well, practically guaranteed.  With their wide challenge nets, it would seem logical to challenge anything where the machine and judge disagree.  Of course if the person wrote "NORM COLEMAN NORM COLEMAN NORM COLEMAN NORM COLEMAN" all over the ballot with a crayon...

[Meeker]

besides the people here that know about what happened there seem to think that it wasn't stolen

Shockingly, they're all Gregoire supporters. Odd, eh?

Shockingly, Rossi supporters don't actually have any evidence of fraud, yet keep implying that there was. Odd, eh?

Wait a minute...I think I just found some Rossi votes in my boxer drawer. Is it too late to get them in?

Your guy lost, twice. Get over it.

[Lunar]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Shockingly, they're all Gregoire supporters. Odd, eh?

Shockingly, Rossi supporters don't actually have any evidence of fraud, yet keep implying that there was. Odd, eh?

Wait a minute...I think I just found some Rossi votes in my boxer drawer. Is it too late to get them in?

Your guy lost, twice. Get over it.
[/quote]

If you get over Bush winning twice (despite the 2000 result)

[Meeker]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Shockingly, they're all Gregoire supporters. Odd, eh?

Shockingly, Rossi supporters don't actually have any evidence of fraud, yet keep implying that there was. Odd, eh?

Wait a minute...I think I just found some Rossi votes in my boxer drawer. Is it too late to get them in?

Your guy lost, twice. Get over it.

If you get over Bush winning twice (despite the 2000 result)
[/quote]

Hey, if it'll finally shut Phil up about Rossi...

[opebo]

If any of the ballots that were initially ruled for one candidate or ruled invalid were, upon inspection, ruled for the opposing side, the other side is guaranteed to challenge.

Actually, that's incorrect.  A lot of gains and losses have occurred where no candidate has challenged. 

Well, practically guaranteed.  With their wide challenge nets, it would seem logical to challenge anything where the machine and judge disagree.  Of course if the person wrote "NORM COLEMAN NORM COLEMAN NORM COLEMAN NORM COLEMAN" all over the ballot with a crayon...

That would mean he had meant to write 'norm coleman sucks' but ran out of room - clear vote for Franken..

[Keystone Phil]

besides the people here that know about what happened there seem to think that it wasn't stolen

Shockingly, they're all Gregoire supporters. Odd, eh?

Shockingly, Rossi supporters don't actually have any evidence of fraud, yet keep implying that there was. Odd, eh?

Wait a minute...I think I just found some Rossi votes in my boxer drawer. Is it too late to get them in?

Your guy lost, twice. Get over it.

I am over it and I don't know why you're asking me to shut up about Rossi. I hardly ever mention the guy now. You guys with Florida, on the other hand...

[NOVA Green]

besides the people here that know about what happened there seem to think that it wasn't stolen

Shockingly, they're all Gregoire supporters. Odd, eh?

Shockingly, Rossi supporters don't actually have any evidence of fraud, yet keep implying that there was. Odd, eh?

Wait a minute...I think I just found some Rossi votes in my boxer drawer. Is it too late to get them in?

Your guy lost, twice. Get over it.

I am over it and I don't know why you're asking me to shut up about Rossi. I hardly ever mention the guy now. You guys with Florida, on the other hand...

I think it will be awhile before Democrats get over Florida....

If Bush had been a better President and less-polarizing (followed through on the Post-9/11 period of national unity, not gone to war in Iraq, and the economy hadn't gone to crap, etc), I think the disputed FL status would be less of a rallying cry amongst the progressive base.

You do have a point, in that there is a time to get over things and move on. I get tired of a few of my friends still harping on alleged voting theft in Ohio in '04, which is a straight-up conspiracy theory that is bounds beyond the once-in-a-lifetime Florida vote of 2000 that everyone was focused on until a month after the election.

[Franzl]

I think, basically...that any election that's close enough...(meaning 0,0x%)....will always be called "stolen" by the losers....not much anyone can do about that.

The truth is...in extremely close elections....the winner isn't really determinable.

[Sam Spade]

Are you a political fanatic and can't get enough of the Minnesota recount?

Are you looking for a way to waste away your Thanksgiving without talking to the rest of your family (or dread!) the mother-in-law?

Then play the Star-Tribune Ballot Challenge!  599 ballots for your perusal and voting choices.  Show your partisanship and stupidity now!!!

http://senaterecount.startribune.com/

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

LOL@this one. I voted Coleman in the poll, though obviously if I were a real judge I would throw it out. But I love the logic: http://senaterecount.startribune.com/media/ballotPDFs/rice_Nfld_W2_P2_challengedballot1.pdf

BTW check this one for a laugh: http://senaterecount.startribune.com/media/ballotPDFs/Olmsted_Kalmar_challenged%20ballot%202.pdf

[Lunar]

BTW check this one for a laugh: http://senaterecount.startribune.com/media/ballotPDFs/Olmsted_Kalmar_challenged%20ballot%202.pdf

I think that's a pretty clear Franken vote upon looking at the rest of the ballot