2009 State and Federal elections in Germany

[Franzl]

Of course the worst thing that could happen to the Linke party would be for there to be a CDU/FDP coalition that drives the SPD into opposition. I don't claim to be a know it all on German politics but i suspect that if the SPD was in opposition it would return to its roots somewhat and would be able to totally oppose the Black/Yellow policies and before long a lot of leftwing protest votes parked with the Linke and to a lesser extent the Greens would go back to the SPD.

I agree, and I sincerely hope that the SPD would become legitimate opposition again.

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile, Anke Spoorendonk of the SSW has ruled out a coalition with the SH-Left.

What is most likely now ?

CDU-FDP-Green ?

[Tender Branson]

The final Forsa poll before the election:

CDU/CSU: 33%
SPD: 25%
FDP: 14%
Left: 12%
Greens: 10%

Tie between Black-Yellow and Red-Red-Green, both at 47%.

[Franzl]

well if Forsa has it as a tie.....then we're headed for a terrible defeat.

[Tender Branson]

well if Forsa has it as a tie.....then we're headed for a terrible defeat.

31-15 vs. 26-11-11 probably.

[Franzl]

Come on overhang mandates!

[Meeker]

Is there a tradition of allowing the first place party to try to form a government first? Or is just a free-for-all?

[Franzl]

Is there a tradition of allowing the first place party to try to form a government first? Or is just a free-for-all?

Free-for-all.

[Tender Branson]

Here's a good turnout map from 2005 in every electoral district:



Source: The Electoral Atlas of the Bundeswahlleiter

[minionofmidas]

Is there a tradition of allowing the first place party to try to form a government first? Or is just a free-for-all?

Free-for-all.

Free-for-all is both the legal situation (there are no presidential invitations to some party leader to form a government or whatever, as in some other countries. Legally, the sovereign Bundestag or Landtag elects a prime minister when it can agree on one, usually with some time constraints written into the state constitution, and that person then names a cabinet. In practice, of course, the cabinet has been agreed on before the election, at least in cases of coalitions) and what's being done in practice.
Largest parties will usually try to spin it that they have been given the duty to form a government by the voters.


It's bleedin' obvious that there won't be a red-red-green coalition this year. At the very least, it'd require a CDU decision to go into opposition for any serious speculation to even start - and we know the CDU a little too well to think that likely even in case of a drubbing, don't we?
It's not just the "Agenda" stuff and the personal animosities. There's the war against Afghanistan to consider, too.


I do note the last-minute stickers on CDU posters. "Strengthen Merkel - both votes CDU!" Looks like they're giving up on a CDU-CSU-FDP majority.

[Franzl]

Well both of my votes will indeed be CDU, although I had been considering FDP at one point.

[Franzl]

Are you voting Green or Left, Lewis?

[minionofmidas]

I shall be voting Pirate. So will my mom.

[Franzl]

I shall be voting Pirate. So will my mom.

Are you serious?

[minionofmidas]

Aye.

[Lief 🗽]

I shall be voting Pirate. So will my mom.

Freedom fighters.

[Tender Branson]

I shall be voting Pirate. So will my mom.

Standard Post:

"Ältere Frau am Stand der Piratenpartei: "Ihr Wahlprogramm ist vernünftig, aber was Sie da vor Somalia machen, finde ich nicht gut !""

[Cassius Dio]

As a German citizen living abroad I have already cast my vote: first vote CDU (CDU wins the direct mandate) second vote for the FDP (giving the FDP more votes on the federal level).

[Hans-im-Glück]

I'll vote with my first vote SPD (I don't think the SPD wins in Hof, but sometimes it gives a miracle; 1998 the SPD wins the last time Hof); with my second vote I'll vote Green

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I shall be voting Pirate. So will my mom.

[Tender Branson]

I'll vote with my first vote SPD (I don't think the SPD wins in Hof, but sometimes it gives a miracle; 1998 the SPD wins the last time Hof); with my second vote I'll vote Green

Still Friedrich (CSU) vs. Ernstberger (SPD) ? They are dueling since 1998, right ?

Ernstberger won in 1998, then Friedrich twice. I guess Friedrich will drop below 50% this time, but it`s still a CSU+12 district, so a likely result could be 48-37 ...

[Tender Branson]

As a German citizen living abroad I have already cast my vote: first vote CDU (CDU wins the direct mandate) second vote for the FDP (giving the FDP more votes on the federal level).

For which constituency if I may ask ?

[Hans-im-Glück]

I'll vote with my first vote SPD (I don't think the SPD wins in Hof, but sometimes it gives a miracle; 1998 the SPD wins the last time Hof); with my second vote I'll vote Green

Still Friedrich (CSU) vs. Ernstberger (SPD) ? They are dueling since 1998, right ?

Ernstberger won in 1998, then Friedrich twice. I guess Friedrich will drop below 50% this time, but it`s still a CSU+12 district, so a likely result could be 48-37 ...

Yeah, every election the same Both candidates are not very popular here and i don't like both. Ernstberger is for me to conservative. She is speaker of the Seeheimer Kreis. Friedrich is 4 years invincible and you see him only for the election. I never see him in the parlament, maybe he sleeps in the last row. When the CSU wins with +5, then it's much better for the SPD than i expect.

Tomorrow I'm electoral assistant in my polling station. It'll be a boring afternoon.

[Cassius Dio]

As a German citizen living abroad I have already cast my vote: first vote CDU (CDU wins the direct mandate) second vote for the FDP (giving the FDP more votes on the federal level).

For which constituency if I may ask ?

Constituency 112. My MB is Uwe Schummer (CDU) and I am sure he will win again.

[Tender Branson]

I'll vote with my first vote SPD (I don't think the SPD wins in Hof, but sometimes it gives a miracle; 1998 the SPD wins the last time Hof); with my second vote I'll vote Green

Still Friedrich (CSU) vs. Ernstberger (SPD) ? They are dueling since 1998, right ?

Ernstberger won in 1998, then Friedrich twice. I guess Friedrich will drop below 50% this time, but it`s still a CSU+12 district, so a likely result could be 48-37 ...

Yeah, every election the same Both candidates are not very popular here and i don't like both. Ernstberger is for me to conservative. She is speaker of the Seeheimer Kreis. Friedrich is 4 years invincible and you see him only for the election. I never see him in the parlament, maybe he sleeps in the last row. When the CSU wins with +5, then it's much better for the SPD than i expect.

Tomorrow I'm electoral assistant in my polling station. It'll be a boring afternoon.

Why, do you expect low turnout of about 70% ?