2009 State and Federal elections in Germany

[Verily]

Even in the US it was clear at the time that the scandal was the attempt to blame the attacks on ETA, not the attacks themselves. Of course, I suspect most political commentators quickly forgot about that and only remembered that terrorist attacks happened and then the Spanish voted for the left.

[Tender Branson]

THREE DAYS to go in Germany’s general election and the main political parties are campaigning furiously on everything from the economic crisis to nuclear energy – all except the Greens.

One of their two lead campaign candidates, Jürgen Trittin, has lost his voice.

The other, Renate Künast, took time out yesterday to express regret at the resignation of a long-serving former Green politician.

The 81-year-old Green veteran Barbara Rütting said she was leaving the party after watching a television programme where Künast caught a fish and killed it with three blows of a stick.

The surreal “fish affair” has heightened the feeling in Berlin that Germany’s opposition Green Party is sleepwalking towards polling day.

Though polling a solid 11 per cent, the party has been unable to find a campaign issue to boost its profile, while the weak poll showing of its former coalition partner, the Social Democrats (SPD), has left it with few post-election options.

Another SPD-Green government is likely to need a third partner but the only candidate, the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP), has ruled out that option. The Greens have ruled out two other alternatives, with the CDU or in a three-party government with the CDU and FDP.

The Green Party election manifesto promises the continuation of Germany’s nuclear energy phase-out, investment in education and a €7.50 minimum wage.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2009/0924/1224255131895.html

[Franzl]

Unless the Greens fall below the 5% mark....I won't be getting my hopes up.

[big bad fab]

Apart from a FDP a bit up, come election day, the results may well be frighteningly close to those of 2005...

[Franzl]

Apart from a FDP a bit up, come election day, the results may well be frighteningly close to those of 2005...

Please don't give me nightmares.

[Tender Branson]

Currently I`d say:

CDU/CSU: 33% (-2)
SPD: 28% (-6)
FDP: 14% (+4)
Left: 11% (+2)
Greens: 10% (+2)
Others: 4% (nc)

Turnout: 70-75%.

[Tender Branson]

I´ve also read that the TV debate between Carstensen and Stegner in the North was a real bitch-fight. Let's see if there are any polls out before the election, before I call this race for any party, but what I´ve read so far Stegner has won the debate by about 10-20%, according to online surveys.

[Franzl]

Currently I`d say:

CDU/CSU: 33% (-2)
SPD: 28% (-6)
FDP: 14% (+4)
Left: 11% (+2)
Greens: 10% (+2)
Others: 4% (nc)

Turnout: 70-75%.

Well I suppose I can still keep one ounce of hope and say:

CDU/CSU: 35%
FDP: 13%

SPD: 28%
Left: 10%
Green: 9%

CDU/FDP majority

[Hash]

I'm holding out hope for CDU/FDP of course, as my preferred (and most realistic) option. A SPD/Green only would be nice, but not in the current circumstances and it's unlikely to get a majority, and I loathe a SPD/Linke/Green government. Urgh.

[Meeker]

Why do people dislike the Left so much? I know a lot of them are former communists, but they don't seriously advocate a return to that, do they? Wouldn't they be at least somewhat workable in a leftist coalition?

[Hash]

Why do people dislike the Left so much? I know a lot of them are former communists, but they don't seriously advocate a return to that, do they? Wouldn't they be at least somewhat workable in a leftist coalition?

I have, well, serious ideological disagreements with them and being ex-communists doesn't exactly help them in my book.

[Franzl]

Why do people dislike the Left so much? I know a lot of them are former communists, but they don't seriously advocate a return to that, do they? Wouldn't they be at least somewhat workable in a leftist coalition?

Well I dislike them purely because of their extreme left-wing politics.

I don't believe the SPD and Greens that they would refuse to form a coalition with their help. What they say before the election doesn't mean much.

[DL]

I would have thought that if you are a left of centre person from anywhere in the western world (ie: a Democrat in the US, a New Democrat or a Liberal or Green or a Bloquist in Canada, a Labourite or a LibDem in the UK or a supporters of the Labour parties in Australia or New Zealand) then the LAST thing you would want to see happen in the German election would be a "Black/Yellow" government. The CDU has been on its best behaviour for the last four years because its been in a relatively weak coalition situation with the SPD, but if they were able to govern in coalition with the extremely "pro-free-market" FDP - make no mistake about it, they would unleash a rightwing reign of terror - with a menu of all the policies that are now in disrepute as having caused the current economic meltdown (ie: deregulation, privatization, tax cuts on the wealthy, building an economy that is based on financial speculation as opposed to actually producing anything).

I'm not German, so I'm observing all this from a far, but i seem to recall that four years ago everyone said that a "grand coalition" was "impossible" and "unworkable" and could never last more than a few months. Well, it has lasted a full four years and given that Merkel is personally quite popular - it seems to have been a reasonably good government.

What would be so bad about a continuation of the Grand Coalition?

[Franzl]

The grand coalition shouldn't be a long term solution, as it doesn't allow any real coordinated opposition.

The only result is that CDU and SPD lose votes, fringe parties gain votes, and traditional stable coalitions become even harder to form than they are now. Germany desperately needs to have clear government and clear opposition, in my opinion.


To the first question about how anyone could support CDU/FDP and vote Democratic in the U.S. (like I do), it's pretty easy really. I consider myself a European liberal, yes, I support free market policies for the most part. But the thing is, most Democrats do as well. Nancy Pelosi is not a normal Democrat. The Republicans, on the other hand, are not electable for any self respecting European liberal due to their extremist social tendencies and irresponsible foreign policy.

Not to mention that basic elements of the welfare state are not up for debate in Europe. I support a public healthcare option in the U.S., as I do in Europe, but there's not much chance that CDU/FDP would ever dream of abolishing that, for example.

[DL]

These "grand coalitions" are not that unusual in Europe. Austria has been ruled by an SPO/OVP grand coalition for most of its postwar history and in the Netherlands and Belgium we see similar patterns. Maybe it can be a good thing for a c**ntry to ruled by consensus as opposed to a "you say black, I say white" political culture like we have in so many countries.

I would have to say that Merkel herself is quite inoffensive. She seesm to be pretty socially liberal. We could do worse. The CDU could be led by some loud mouth Bavarian Catholic disciple of Ratzinger etc...But I find the FDP leader Westerwelle to be kind of creepy (btw: I speak so-so German so i do watch clips of these people) and i don't like the idea of giving him any power.

BTW: In Germany, does there have to be a "coalition" at all or is it possible - say - for the CDU to form a minority government on its own and try to get support from other parties on a case by case basis - like we have now in Canada? 

[Hash]

Minority governments are rather rare outside of Canada, thankfully.

[Franzl]

BTW: In Germany, does there have to be a "coalition" at all or is it possible - say - for the CDU to form a minority government on its own and try to get support from other parties on a case by case basis - like we have now in Canada? 

For all practical purposes, minority government don't really exist.

Merkel needs to be elected chancellor by the Bundestag, and that won't happen if another party doesn't have any advantage by doing so (being a part of the government).

Now there have been cases where governements have relied on a minority (like in Hesse between 2008 and 2009). Roland Koch (CDU) remained in office without having won re-election because no other coalition was able to elect a different governor after some SPD members refused to vote for SPD-Green-Left.

During that time, however, red-red-green passed a few laws against the will of Koch's government, like abolition of fees for university, and that ultimately brought the government down after a year.

[minionofmidas]

The grand coalition shouldn't be a long term solution, as it doesn't allow any real coordinated opposition.

The only result is that CDU and SPD lose votes, fringe parties gain votes, and traditional stable coalitions become even harder to form than they are now. Germany desperately needs to have clear government and clear opposition, in my opinion.

The German constitution effectively bans that. Almost all German governments have effectively been minority governments if we define that as lacking a majority in one chamber of parliament.

[DL]

Haven't there been minority governments in some states in eastern Germany where the SPD has ruled while being "tolerated" by the Linke party?

[Hans-im-Glück]

Haven't there been minority governments in some states in eastern Germany where the SPD has ruled while being "tolerated" by the Linke party?

Yes, in Berlin they have a coalition and in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern hey had in the past a coalition. In Sachsen-Anhalt the SPD Minority- Government was tolerated by the PDS. In Federal States it is no bigger problem, because the differences between SPD and Linke is no so extrem. For a Federal Government this is no so. The Linke want some things the SPD never can say yes to this. The Linke want that the reforms of the welfare state go back. They want out of Afghanistan today etc. On the other hand nobody in the SPD trusts Oskar Lafontaine. Without Lafontaine, with a little bit more pragmatism i see no problem to build a coalition between SPD, Greens, and the Linke.

[Franzl]

Haven't there been minority governments in some states in eastern Germany where the SPD has ruled while being "tolerated" by the Linke party?

Without Lafontaine, with a little bit more pragmatism i see no problem to build a coalition between SPD, Greens, and the Linke.

Well you may get your chance for that on Sunday.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Haven't there been minority governments in some states in eastern Germany where the SPD has ruled while being "tolerated" by the Linke party?

Without Lafontaine, with a little bit more pragmatism i see no problem to build a coalition between SPD, Greens, and the Linke.

Well you may get your chance for that on Sunday.

This year it's impossible, but in the next election. Then it's no problem

[Franzl]

Haven't there been minority governments in some states in eastern Germany where the SPD has ruled while being "tolerated" by the Linke party?

Without Lafontaine, with a little bit more pragmatism i see no problem to build a coalition between SPD, Greens, and the Linke.

Well you may get your chance for that on Sunday.

This year it's impossible, but in the next election. Then it's no problem

Let's wait and see, I don't trust Steinmeier to really reject such a coalition if he has the opportunity.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Haven't there been minority governments in some states in eastern Germany where the SPD has ruled while being "tolerated" by the Linke party?

Without Lafontaine, with a little bit more pragmatism i see no problem to build a coalition between SPD, Greens, and the Linke.

Well you may get your chance for that on Sunday.

This year it's impossible, but in the next election. Then it's no problem

Let's wait and see, I don't trust Steinmeier to really reject such a coalition if he has the opportunity.

This never happen. Steinmeier was the architect of the Agenda 2010. He can't make politics against himself In the moment you get in the SPD no majority for a coalition with the Linke, but in 4 years, who knows...

Possible is 2 years a grand coalition and the it will break. Then maybe you see your nightmare , before 2011 i don't see it.

[DL]

Of course the worst thing that could happen to the Linke party would be for there to be a CDU/FDP coalition that drives the SPD into opposition. I don't claim to be a know it all on German politics but i suspect that if the SPD was in opposition it would return to its roots somewhat and would be able to totally oppose the Black/Yellow policies and before long a lot of leftwing protest votes parked with the Linke and to a lesser extent the Greens would go back to the SPD.