Virginia 2009 Megathread

[CARLHAYDEN]

the notion of the margin of error doesn't existe when polls are reweighted.

It would be interessant to reweighting all polls with a gop +2 advantage. And I think that the result will be always +- the same.
[/quote]

I said absolutely NOTHING about the "weighting" of polls, but rather noted that there is a Margin of Error (based on sample size), which could well have explained the perceived close poll.

[Stampever]

I'd say the most telling thing right now is that McDonnell has dumped the pretense of running a positive campaign and is going 100% on Generic Republican Attack Mode: "THE DEMOCRATS WILL RAISE YOUR TAXES!!!11". If he were really up by 14 like SUSA says, he wouldn't need to be doing that.

Deeds has been running a negative campaign for much of the Summer, which is why he's recovered lost ground.  McDonnell has just returned the favor.  And as we know, negative adds tend to do better than positive ones, which is why all candidates resort to them at one point or another.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

No shit Deeds has been negative. My point is that when you're far ahead you don't need to go negative.

[Beet]

The fact that McDonnell has now gone negative shows that he's worried; or at least he was worried when he decided to go negative.

In the end, I believe there's a good chance this race isn't as close as the polls show it to be. A 58-42 McDonnell win isn't out of the question. The Democrats should just be happy they will hold the Senate to redistricting next year. Once again, I will be happy to be proven wrong.

[Umengus]

The fact that McDonnell has now gone negative shows that he's worried; or at least he was worried when he decided to go negative.

In the end, I believe there's a good chance this race isn't as close as the polls show it to be. A 58-42 McDonnell win isn't out of the question. The Democrats should just be happy they will hold the Senate to redistricting next year. Once again, I will be happy to be proven wrong.

McDonnell goes "negative" because deeds did a strong mistake with tax increase. Even with a 20+ lead, you make the ad and you kill him.

It's sure for me that the major reason to explain Mcdonnell loss in some polls (wapo and ppp polls especially) is due to the modification in the party id samples (gop oversampled in the first time, dem oversampled in the second time). When you look at internals, McDonnell stays strong with independents. No move there. The increase of the dem turn out  is based on fantasy and is contradicted by the last polls..

[Stampever]

No shit Deeds has been negative. My point is that when you're far ahead you don't need to go negative.

But he wasn't far ahead when he started turning the heat on Deeds.  He only did that after Deeds ran a successful ad series against him over his thesis.  This was his way to reset the spread.

[Eraserhead]

The fact that McDonnell has now gone negative shows that he's worried; or at least he was worried when he decided to go negative.

In the end, I believe there's a good chance this race isn't as close as the polls show it to be. A 58-42 McDonnell win isn't out of the question. The Democrats should just be happy they will hold the Senate to redistricting next year. Once again, I will be happy to be proven wrong.

I'd say a 55-45 McDonnell win is possible (although not likely). 58-42 is really pushing it.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Classy:

http://hamptonroads.com/2009/10/video-bet-founder-mocks-deeds-stuttering-mcdonnell-campaign-fundraiser

[Eraserhead]

BET's founder is a Rethuglican? Figures.

[Holmes]

I think she's a Democrat? Not that it matters, cause c-co-co-communication is the m-most i-i-important f-f-factor in the h-hi-history of forever of v-v-vo-voting.

[Stampever]

Classy:

http://hamptonroads.com/2009/10/video-bet-founder-mocks-deeds-stuttering-mcdonnell-campaign-fundraiser

I - I - I - Idiot.

[Holmes]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJoX8mj2kyM

I thought this was cute.

[Tender Branson]

New WaPo poll:

McDonnell: 53%
Deeds: 44%

This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone October 4-7, 2009, among a random sample of 1,001 likely voters in the Commonwealth of Virginia including users of both conventional and cellular phones. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_100709.html

[Eraserhead]

New WaPo poll:

McDonnell: 53%
Deeds: 44%

This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone October 4-7, 2009, among a random sample of 1,001 likely voters in the Commonwealth of Virginia including users of both conventional and cellular phones. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_100709.html

How very interesting!

[Lief 🗽]

Oh well. At least NJ is looking like Corzine might somehow pull an upset.

[Holmes]

Oh my gosh, it looks like Bloomberg is gonna become a wedge issue meme in the South now.

http://thehill.com/blogs/twitter-room/other-news/62229-goper-bloomberg-and-anti-gun-cronies-should-stay-the-heck-out-of-tn

[© tweed]

Deeds should be in line for a nice job with the American Society for Executing Twelve Year Olds.

[© tweed]

fwiw, Intrade now gives Corzine a small structural lead.

[Lunar]

Oh my gosh, it looks like Bloomberg is gonna become a wedge issue meme in the South now.

http://thehill.com/blogs/twitter-room/other-news/62229-goper-bloomberg-and-anti-gun-cronies-should-stay-the-heck-out-of-tn

It's a disgusting symbiotic relationship where both McDonnell and Bloomberg gain national attention by developing faux-battles against one another, pitting region against region.

Trust me, Bloomberg isn't a fan of Deeds.

[Sam Spade]

Is Bloomberg just trying to get me to vote for Thompson just to stop this crap?

[CARLHAYDEN]

Is Bloomberg just trying to get me to vote for Thompson just to stop this crap?

Why not Christopher or Dobrian?

[Tender Branson]

Latest Mason-Dixon poll:

McDonnell: 48%
Deeds: 40%

The Mason-Dixon findings are based on telephone interviews conducted Tuesday through Thursday with 625 likely voters. The partisan split in the poll is 32 percent Democrat, 38 percent Republican and 30 percent independent.

http://hamptonroads.com/2009/10/mcdonnell-8-points-new-masondixon-poll

[Sam Spade]

Is Bloomberg just trying to get me to vote for Thompson just to stop this crap?

Why not Christopher or Dobrian?

Well Carl, I'm not voting for Bloomberg and presently intend on voting third-party.  But if I decide that I've had enough of his control-freak, meddling attitude, I may just go for the neutered Negro.  Especially if its close - every so often this city needs to be reminded how close to incompetence it really is.

Stuff like this makes me lean towards the latter option.

[Meeker]

Don't worry guys. The GW College Democrats are headed down to Norfolk next weekend to volunteer for Deeds. Just as we did in New Jersey, this race is about to be turned on its head.

[HappyWarrior]

Don't worry guys. The GW College Democrats are headed down to Norfolk next weekend to volunteer for Deeds. Just as we did in New Jersey, this race is about to be turned on its head.

You guys are freaking magical.  I wish my College Dems were as awesome.  I'm VP and we have a total of 5 members lol