Virginia 2009 Megathread

[JerryBrown2010]

Republicans did the same denial of reality in 2008.

SHUT UP!  I'M NOT LISTENING!  LALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALA

you can't say 2 polls In a row are wrong because they are not favoring your party, that's just playing politics.

[Alexander Hamilton]

Republicans did the same denial of reality in 2008.

2006 for sure. I remember saying there was no way the Republicans would lose the Senate cause the GOP GOTV would save VA and MO for us in the end. Remember how that turned out. I wonder how Allen is enjoying his second term as Senator. .

Yeah that was just pathetic.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The only good news for Deeds is that he has much more room to grow than McDonnell does. Most of the undecideds are black voters, and Deeds' supposed problem with them doesn't seem to be helping McDonnell, who's getting 3% of the black vote. I still don't think it's going to be a landslide, McDonnell will probably top out at 54-55% if he continues to lead like this.

Oh well, it was nice to dream.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Wow, is this race over?  Sorry I haven't been paying attention to it, there's a governor's race that actually matters going on to the north

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Wow, is this race over?  Sorry I haven't been paying attention to it, there's a governor's race that actually matters going on to the north

It's not over, especially since Deeds has come back from oblivion twice before, but it's a heck of a hill to climb.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Wow, is this race over?  Sorry I haven't been paying attention to it, there's a governor's race that actually matters going on to the north

No, the race is far from over.  Deeds is down, but he'll be fine in the end, and manage a state that isn't full of corruption.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Wow, is this race over?  Sorry I haven't been paying attention to it, there's a governor's race that actually matters going on to the north

No, the race is far from over.  Deeds is down, but he'll be fine in the end, and manage a state that isn't full of corruption.

Is there anything short of pure optimism that makes you think he can overcome what has become a double-digit deficit?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Is there anything short of pure optimism that makes you think he can overcome what has become a double-digit deficit?

Yes.

[Verily]

Wow, is this race over?  Sorry I haven't been paying attention to it, there's a governor's race that actually matters going on to the north

No, the race is far from over.  Deeds is down, but he'll be fine in the end, and manage a state that isn't full of corruption.

Is there anything short of pure optimism that makes you think he can overcome what has become a double-digit deficit?

That PPP and SUSA aren't even attempting to weight their polls for the 2008 vote is a bad sign for the polling. Yes, the differential turnout for 2009 compared to 2008 will be bad for the Democrats---but not nearly that bad. They should be weighting to around a 2008 tie, which makes the race quite competitive in both polls.

[Rowan]

Wow, is this race over?  Sorry I haven't been paying attention to it, there's a governor's race that actually matters going on to the north

No, the race is far from over.  Deeds is down, but he'll be fine in the end, and manage a state that isn't full of corruption.

Is there anything short of pure optimism that makes you think he can overcome what has become a double-digit deficit?

That PPP and SUSA aren't even attempting to weight their polls for the 2008 vote is a bad sign for the polling. Yes, the differential turnout for 2009 compared to 2008 will be bad for the Democrats---but not nearly that bad. They should be weighting to around a 2008 tie, which makes the race quite competitive in both polls.

They didn't weight at all in 2008, and nailed it perfectly. I didn't hear you complaining then.

[Meeker]

Terry McAuliffe would be ahead by 6-8 points right now. Oh well.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Terry McAuliffe would be ahead by 6-8 points right now. Oh well.

I honestly can't tell if you're joking or not.

[Verily]

Wow, is this race over?  Sorry I haven't been paying attention to it, there's a governor's race that actually matters going on to the north

No, the race is far from over.  Deeds is down, but he'll be fine in the end, and manage a state that isn't full of corruption.

Is there anything short of pure optimism that makes you think he can overcome what has become a double-digit deficit?

That PPP and SUSA aren't even attempting to weight their polls for the 2008 vote is a bad sign for the polling. Yes, the differential turnout for 2009 compared to 2008 will be bad for the Democrats---but not nearly that bad. They should be weighting to around a 2008 tie, which makes the race quite competitive in both polls.

They didn't weight at all in 2008, and nailed it perfectly. I didn't hear you complaining then.

Oh, I would. Pollsters should always weight, and they didn't nail it perfectly. That's what I like about British polling; it's miles ahead of American in that way.

[Sam Spade]

Wow, is this race over?  Sorry I haven't been paying attention to it, there's a governor's race that actually matters going on to the north

No, the race is far from over.  Deeds is down, but he'll be fine in the end, and manage a state that isn't full of corruption.

Is there anything short of pure optimism that makes you think he can overcome what has become a double-digit deficit?

That PPP and SUSA aren't even attempting to weight their polls for the 2008 vote is a bad sign for the polling. Yes, the differential turnout for 2009 compared to 2008 will be bad for the Democrats---but not nearly that bad. They should be weighting to around a 2008 tie, which makes the race quite competitive in both polls.

They didn't weight at all in 2008, and nailed it perfectly. I didn't hear you complaining then.

Oh, I would. Pollsters should always weight, and they didn't nail it perfectly. That's what I like about British polling; it's miles ahead of American in that way.

Too bad it isn't in terms of accuracy.  Go ask Al.

Couple of points:
1) Summer polling sucks.  Repeat.
2) That being said, folks seem to forget that pre-2008, pretty much every Virginia election had a party ID of 2-3 points GOP advantage.  I haven't forgotten.

[Verily]

Wow, is this race over?  Sorry I haven't been paying attention to it, there's a governor's race that actually matters going on to the north

No, the race is far from over.  Deeds is down, but he'll be fine in the end, and manage a state that isn't full of corruption.

Is there anything short of pure optimism that makes you think he can overcome what has become a double-digit deficit?

That PPP and SUSA aren't even attempting to weight their polls for the 2008 vote is a bad sign for the polling. Yes, the differential turnout for 2009 compared to 2008 will be bad for the Democrats---but not nearly that bad. They should be weighting to around a 2008 tie, which makes the race quite competitive in both polls.

They didn't weight at all in 2008, and nailed it perfectly. I didn't hear you complaining then.

Oh, I would. Pollsters should always weight, and they didn't nail it perfectly. That's what I like about British polling; it's miles ahead of American in that way.

Too bad it isn't in terms of accuracy.  Go ask Al.

Couple of points:
1) Summer polling sucks.  Repeat.
2) That being said, folks seem to forget that pre-2008, pretty much every Virginia election had a party ID of 2-3 points GOP advantage.  I haven't forgotten.

The bad years of British polling general stem from the pre-weighting period. Sure, they're not excellent anyway--no one is. But they don't deliver huge surprises now that weighting is used, pretty much ever, except at the local level where no one except news agencies really pretends you can poll effectively anyway.

And, sure, you're right about the voter ID. I'm not talking about voter ID, which is a stupid measurement and highly fluid. I'm talking about vote recall, which is much more important (maybe the most important) for weighting.

[Lunar]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0809/Deeds_and_Obama.html


this just opens the "what is Deeds afraid of?" line of attack, which is effective against both Obama voters who think Deeds shouldn't be hiding from the president and McCain voters who don't like the secret connection.

expect it to appear in an ad.

[Ronnie]

R2000/Daily Kos:

McDonnell 51%
Deeds 43%

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/8/5/VA/321

[Sam Spade]

R2000/Daily Kos:

McDonnell 51%
Deeds 43%

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/8/5/VA/321

Weighted to 2008 party ID.  Obviously, you have to keep the troops enthused.

My last observation on the weighting issue is this:  I have no clue what Virginia will weight as come November with the exit polls.  But I am willing to bet considerable money it will not be Dem +6.

[JerryBrown2010]

Looks like President Obama is going to be campaigning with Deeds today In Virginia.

http://www.deedsforvirginia.com/blog/main/2009/8/6/rally-for-virginia-tonight

[Eraserhead]

Constine should be interesting on election night.

[Rowan]

Constine should be interesting on election night.

Too early to issue a suicide watch?

[Dan the Roman]

Looks like 1997 redux. The real tragedy is Shannon's crap campaign.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I don't understand why anyone would care at this race at all, its incredibly boring and uninteresting.  The candidates are bland, the issues are bland, and frankly its not even much of a race

[Alexander Hamilton]

I don't understand why anyone would care at this race at all, its incredibly boring and uninteresting.  The candidates are bland, the issues are bland, and frankly its not even much of a race

I think it's interesting that McDonnell and Deeds almost have the urban-rural split switched along partisan lines, with McDonnell being quite a strong Republican in cities and suburbs while Deeds has been outperforming most Democrats in rural VA.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I don't understand why anyone would care at this race at all, its incredibly boring and uninteresting.  The candidates are bland, the issues are bland, and frankly its not even much of a race

I think it's interesting that McDonnell and Deeds almost have the urban-rural split switched along partisan lines, with McDonnell being quite a strong Republican in cities and suburbs while Deeds has been outperforming most Democrats in rural VA.

That doesn't make for an interesting race.  NJ is an interesting race for a governor's seat that actually means something.  I mean seriously the governor of VA is a do-nothing job compared to the governor of NJ