Virginia 2009 Megathread
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Author Topic: Virginia 2009 Megathread  (Read 171790 times)
JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #675 on: July 22, 2009, 07:07:07 AM »
Kaine is calling a special session of the GA to deal with the recent Supreme Court ruling regarding crime lab access by criminal defendants. Cuccinelli had called on him to do this, Shannon's campaign criticized it as political posturing. Boy, Shannon is screwing over his chances of winning.

http://www.timesdispatch.com/rtd/news/state_regional/state_regional_govtpolitics/article/SESS22_20090721-234602/281419/
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #676 on: July 26, 2009, 11:29:43 AM »
I'm disappointed by the lack of polling data.  I guess it'll pick up in September, but still.
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Frodo
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« Reply #677 on: July 26, 2009, 11:45:59 AM »
Quote from: Deeds for Governor '09 on July 26, 2009, 11:29:43 AM
I'm disappointed by the lack of polling data.  I guess it'll pick up in September, but still.

What's the point of spending money and wasting time polling households in the middle of summer when most of them are gone on vacation? 
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #678 on: July 26, 2009, 02:16:30 PM »
PPP says they'll have another survey out the first week of August.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #679 on: July 27, 2009, 05:30:27 PM »
Apparently there was a debate Saturday? Any news from that?

Also Obama will be down August 6 for a rally and fundraiser.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #680 on: July 27, 2009, 05:44:53 PM »
It was pretty boring, from what I heard.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #681 on: July 29, 2009, 12:57:20 PM »
« Edited: July 29, 2009, 12:58:52 PM by RowanBrandon »
SUSA VA-GOV

McDonnell 55%
Deeds 40%

http://www.wdbj7.com/Global/story.asp?S=10811055

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=cd18a820-69ba-4847-a2fa-1cb95a6a9057&c=77
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fezzyfestoon
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« Reply #682 on: July 29, 2009, 01:01:44 PM »

What on earth??
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #683 on: July 29, 2009, 01:03:58 PM »

The poll has an R+6 party ID. Probably way too optimistic. But still, a solid lead either way.
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #684 on: July 29, 2009, 01:40:25 PM »

I am smelling a result the inverse of 2005. Really, the Democrats need to get Shannon into shape he is their best bet, and there is no way someone with Cucinelli's views should be competitive.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #685 on: July 29, 2009, 05:32:35 PM »
Joke poll. Pass.
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Landslide Lyndon
px75
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« Reply #686 on: July 29, 2009, 05:58:59 PM »
Excuse me, but this poll says that 15% of Obama voters stated that they will vote McDonnell while 9% of McCain voters said they will vote Deeds.

According to my poor math, that should result to a draw and certainly not a blow-out for either candidate.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #687 on: July 29, 2009, 06:12:10 PM »
Quote from: px75 on July 29, 2009, 05:58:59 PM
Excuse me, but this poll says that 15% of Obama voters stated that they will vote McDonnell while 9% of McCain voters said they will vote Deeds.

According to my poor math, that should result to a draw and certainly not a blow-out for either candidate.

The poll sample is 52% McCain, 43% Obama. One of the many reasons why it's a joke poll.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #688 on: July 29, 2009, 06:33:24 PM »
As PPP has stated, blacks and young voters that accounted for Obama's margin are not excited for this race and will not be "likely voters." To not grasp that concept is mindblowing. Reweight the poll to a D+3 party ID, and you still get a solid McDonnell lead, no?
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #689 on: July 29, 2009, 06:45:43 PM »
I just reweighted to the 2008 exit polls(which is even generous to Democrats for an off-year election) and got a 50-45 McDonnell lead, still outside the margin of error.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #690 on: July 29, 2009, 06:54:54 PM »
Look, I'm ready to believe McDonnell is ahead, but it's ridiculous to think it's 55-40 now. Also, there is no way that the electorate is down to 5% undecided (for all three races!) in July.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #691 on: July 29, 2009, 06:56:10 PM »
Oh absolutely it's not 15 points. I'm just saying to dismiss the poll simply because of the party ID is a bit much. It should be cause for concern that McDonnell is up 60-35 among Indies.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #692 on: July 29, 2009, 07:35:32 PM »
A 15 point lead is BS, but I bet McDonnell is a little bit ahead.

It would be awesome for us to pick up both NJ and VA.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #693 on: July 29, 2009, 10:44:08 PM »
Quote from: JohnnyLongtorso on July 29, 2009, 06:12:10 PM
Quote from: px75 on July 29, 2009, 05:58:59 PM
Excuse me, but this poll says that 15% of Obama voters stated that they will vote McDonnell while 9% of McCain voters said they will vote Deeds.

According to my poor math, that should result to a draw and certainly not a blow-out for either candidate.

The poll sample is 52% McCain, 43% Obama. One of the many reasons why it's a joke poll.

ahahahahahahahahhaha

Shame though, SUSA isn't that bad.
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Vepres
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« Reply #694 on: July 29, 2009, 10:54:19 PM »
Quote from: JohnnyLongtorso on July 29, 2009, 06:12:10 PM
Quote from: px75 on July 29, 2009, 05:58:59 PM
Excuse me, but this poll says that 15% of Obama voters stated that they will vote McDonnell while 9% of McCain voters said they will vote Deeds.

According to my poor math, that should result to a draw and certainly not a blow-out for either candidate.

The poll sample is 52% McCain, 43% Obama. One of the many reasons why it's a joke poll.

Well it is an off-year election, less enthusiasm among blacks and the youth.

RCP pegs the race at +6% McDonnell, sounds about right, maybe a point or two high.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #695 on: July 30, 2009, 05:52:14 AM »
Or maybe the people of VA are now embarrassed to admit they voted for Obama. Just a thought...
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Lunar
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« Reply #696 on: July 30, 2009, 06:32:37 AM »
not a particularly good one though Sad
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #697 on: July 30, 2009, 06:54:07 AM »
SUSA's own poll from a month ago puts his approval rating at 59/36.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #698 on: July 30, 2009, 03:40:06 PM »
Quote from: JohnnyLongtorso on July 30, 2009, 06:54:07 AM
SUSA's own poll from a month ago puts his approval rating at 59/36.

Or we could use their poll from this month that is 44/49.
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Landslide Lyndon
px75
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« Reply #699 on: July 30, 2009, 04:18:03 PM »
Quote from: RowanBrandon on July 30, 2009, 03:40:06 PM
Quote from: JohnnyLongtorso on July 30, 2009, 06:54:07 AM
SUSA's own poll from a month ago puts his approval rating at 59/36.

Or we could use their poll from this month that is 44/49.

Could it be because they used the same sample?
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