2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[Mr.Phips]

9. Former President Jimmy Carter said recently that much of the opposition to President Obama and his health care policy is based upon racism, do you agree or disagree with this statement?
Agree 21%
Disagree 67%
Undecided 12%

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

How can a polling company include a question like this?  Are they out of their minds?

Seems like a perfectly legitimate question to ask, to me.  Former President Carter raised the issue.  It was in the news.  Pollsters ask questions about things in the news all the time.

Strategic Vision is partisan, but not a terrible pollster, by the way.  Their 2008 presidential primary polling was about average.

Maybe so, but some of their general election polling was just terrible.  They had final polls putting McCain up in Ohio and Florida and a final poll in 2006 that had Steele tied with Cardin in Maryland. 

[SPQR]

Who the hell is this Daggett guy?

Independent centrist-y candidate.

Former Republican.  Cabinet member in the Kean administration.

Hmm,so typical centrist-center right kind of guy.And still,Corzine is not ahead.

[Sam Spade]

The general impression I'm getting from PPP's twitter tonight is a Christie lead - though how much is still questionable.

I'm getting a whole lot closer to my final predictions based on what I see in the polling.

[Meeker]

Final PPP

Christie: 47%
Corzine: 41%
Daggett: 11%

An... interesting result

[Rowan]

PPP NJ

Christie 47%
Corzine 41%
Daggett 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NJ_1101513.pdf

[Eraserhead]

PPP's polling has been devastating towards Democrats on all fronts. They will come out of election day looking like major champs or major chumps.

[Holmes]

Net Obama unfavorable while Rassmussen of all pollsters has net favorables?


Well, now I'm expecting Maine to be like 50 - 40 for them. Is PPP turning into ARGh like levels?

[East Coast Republican]

Wow.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Well, it's clear that PPP is making some assumptions in this race that some of the other pollsters (notably, the Uni polls) aren't making.  I think there's something to be said for some of these assumptions: That Republicans will be much more motivated than Democrats in an ugly, drag-out, heavily negative campaign like we've seen in New Jersey, simply because the incumbent is the Democrat.

This isn't a six point race, I don't think, but I do think that Christie is going to come out with the win come Tuesday.

[Mr.Phips]

If Republicans win this race and all of the other races, I think we are really witnessing the collapse of the Democratic party below the Presidential level.  I think we could really see a period when Republicans hold almost everything at the local and Congressional level. 

[Хahar 🤔]

If Republicans win this race and all of the other races, I think we are really witnessing the collapse of the Democratic party below the Presidential level.  I think we could really see a period when Republicans hold almost everything at the local and Congressional level. 

No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No.

What is it about two gubernatorial races that enables you to make that extrapolation?

[Mr.Phips]

If Republicans win this race and all of the other races, I think we are really witnessing the collapse of the Democratic party below the Presidential level.  I think we could really see a period when Republicans hold almost everything at the local and Congressional level. 

No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No.

What is it about two gubernatorial races that enables you to make that extrapolation?

This is basically what happened after 1993 when Democrats lost these races.  Democrats are losing EVERYWHERE.  From Seattle Washington to Stamford Connecticut, the Democratic party is losing races. 

[Holmes]

That's kinda like saying, because Democrats lost the gubernatorial in Lousiana in 2007 after the 2006 wave, Landrieu's defeat was almost assure.

[The Mikado]

If Republicans win this race and all of the other races, I think we are really witnessing the collapse of the Democratic party below the Presidential level.  I think we could really see a period when Republicans hold almost everything at the local and Congressional level. 

How is this different than Warner and McGreevey winning governor's races in 2001 at the height of Bush's popularity,  foreshadowing...Republican gains in 2002?  Using these very idiosyncratic races as national barometers is quite useless.

[Mr.Phips]

If Republicans win this race and all of the other races, I think we are really witnessing the collapse of the Democratic party below the Presidential level.  I think we could really see a period when Republicans hold almost everything at the local and Congressional level. 

How is this different than Warner and McGreevey winning governor's races in 2001 at the height of Bush's popularity,  foreshadowing...Republican gains in 2002?  Using these very idiosyncratic races as national barometers is quite useless.

If Democrats score an upset in the New York City Mayor race, I might agree with your arguement. 

[Tender Branson]

Sadly as it is, I´m now also leaning to predict a slight Christie-victory in my final evening predictions.

What I don`t get though is why Christie is surging on behalf of Daggett, when his supporters now say Corzine is their second choice by about 10% ...

[Sam Spade]

If Republicans win this race and all of the other races, I think we are really witnessing the collapse of the Democratic party below the Presidential level.  I think we could really see a period when Republicans hold almost everything at the local and Congressional level. 

How is this different than Warner and McGreevey winning governor's races in 2001 at the height of Bush's popularity,  foreshadowing...Republican gains in 2002?  Using these very idiosyncratic races as national barometers is quite useless.

If Democrats score an upset in the New York City Mayor race, I might agree with your arguement. 

Won't happen, though I'll be helping.  The history of NY mayors/governors who receive third terms is notoriously negative - I don't think it'll be any different this time around.

Watch the council races there though - a lot of interesting things will happen there that will impact the future.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If Republicans win this race and all of the other races, I think we are really witnessing the collapse of the Democratic party below the Presidential level.  I think we could really see a period when Republicans hold almost everything at the local and Congressional level. 

Uh, what? This is dumber than those predicting the end of the Democratic Party after 2004 or the end of the Republican Party after 2006.

[Hash]

If Republicans win this race and all of the other races, I think we are really witnessing the collapse of the Democratic party below the Presidential level.  I think we could really see a period when Republicans hold almost everything at the local and Congressional level. 

No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No.

What is it about two gubernatorial races that enables you to make that extrapolation?

That guy thinks the Democrats are inevitably headed towards doomsday and since Obama has unfavourable ratings, the Democrats will never win anything ever again. Don't mind him.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Quinnipiac shows a shift back towards Christie, and their internals (unlike in their last poll) now make sense.

Christie 42%
Corzine 40%
Daggett 12%

[Sam Spade]

Here's the table that I have on NJ polling at the moment (From Christie to Corzine margins):

Pollster	Christie	Corzine	Daggett	Margin
Neighborhood Research (R)	42%	35%	8%	Christie +7%
PPP	47%	41%	11%	Christie +6%
Rasmussen	47%	44%	8%	Christie +3%
Fairleigh Dickenson	41%	39%	14%	Christie +2%
Quinnipiac	42%	40%	12%	Christie +2%
Daily Kos/R2000	42%	41%	14%	Christie +1%
Monmouth University/Gannett	43%	42%	8%	Christie +1%
SurveyUSA	43%	43%	11%	Push
Stockton/Zogby	39%	40%	14%	Corzine +1%
Rutgers/Eagleton	36%	39%	20%	Corzine +3%
New York Times	37%	40%	14%	Corzine +3%
Democracy Corps	38%	43%	12%	Corzine +5%
Suffolk University	33%	42%	7%	Corzine +9%

[CPT MikeyMike]

Here's the table that I have on NJ polling at the moment (From Christie to Corzine margins):

Pollster	Christie	Corzine	Daggett	Margin
Neighborhood Research (R)	42%	35%	8%	Christie +7%
PPP	47%	41%	11%	Christie +6%
Rasmussen	47%	44%	8%	Christie +3%
Fairleigh Dickenson	41%	39%	14%	Christie +2%
Quinnipiac	42%	40%	12%	Christie +2%
Daily Kos/R2000	42%	41%	14%	Christie +1%
Monmouth University/Gannett	43%	42%	8%	Christie +1%
SurveyUSA	43%	43%	11%	Push
Stockton/Zogby	39%	40%	14%	Corzine +1%
Rutgers/Eagleton	36%	39%	20%	Corzine +3%
New York Times	37%	40%	14%	Corzine +3%
Democracy Corps	38%	43%	12%	Corzine +5%
Suffolk University	33%	42%	7%	Corzine +9%

If you simply average them out:

Christie: 40.769%
Corzine: 40.692%
Daggett: 11.769%

How much closer can it get?!?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Most of those extreme polls can be eliminated for obvious reasons.  I mean, that Corzine +9 is essentially a poll of registered voters.

[Sam Spade]

Here's the table that I have on NJ polling at the moment (From Christie to Corzine margins):

Pollster	Christie	Corzine	Daggett	Margin
Neighborhood Research (R)	42%	35%	8%	Christie +7%
PPP	47%	41%	11%	Christie +6%
Rasmussen	47%	44%	8%	Christie +3%
Fairleigh Dickenson	41%	39%	14%	Christie +2%
Quinnipiac	42%	40%	12%	Christie +2%
Daily Kos/R2000	42%	41%	14%	Christie +1%
Monmouth University/Gannett	43%	42%	8%	Christie +1%
SurveyUSA	43%	43%	11%	Push
Stockton/Zogby	39%	40%	14%	Corzine +1%
Rutgers/Eagleton	36%	39%	20%	Corzine +3%
New York Times	37%	40%	14%	Corzine +3%
Democracy Corps	38%	43%	12%	Corzine +5%
Suffolk University	33%	42%	7%	Corzine +9%

If you simply average them out:

Christie: 40.769%
Corzine: 40.692%
Daggett: 11.769%

How much closer can it get?!?

True.  However, if I was a Corzine supporter, I would find worrying that all the polls that show him ahead are either older (conducted before last week), except for Zogby, or in the case of Dem Corps, well, you know...

[Eraserhead]

Q has Christie ahead now? Alright, I'm throwing in the towel. I'm glad I waited until today to make my finals predictions.