2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Do it. Why not?

[cinyc]

Republican operative Rick Shaftan's Neighborhood Research has Christie up by 7 among likely voters, 42%-35%-8%, for what it's worth (about the same as Democracy Corps, I suppose).  He's up 9 among definite voters, 44%-35%-8%.

There are some interesting (and perhaps, totall fictional) regional breakdowns and generic Assembly ballot questions at the link.

[Tender Branson]

Stockton College/Zogby International:

Corzine: 40%
Christie: 39%
Daggett: 14%
Someone else: 1%
Undecided: 6%

Zogby International was commissioned by the Hughes Center for Public Policy at The Richard Stockton College to conduct a telephone survey of 1,093 likely voters.  The survey ran from October 27th to October 29th 2009.  Weights were applied by region, party, age, race and gender to adjust for non-response.  The margin of error for this survey is +/- 3.0 percentage points.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1761

Thanks to God it's not an internet poll and their crosstabs look OK.

[Peter]

a corner of my conscience is nagging, begging me to place a nice sum on Christie's Intrade contract, which is paying almost 2:1 post-fees.

Way ahead of you my friend, I bought it when it was 32.5, and I could sell now at 36.0. I'm willing to bet its going to go higher, hopefully above 40. I just need to make a decision over whether I'm going to hold on for a bigger win.

[Franzl]

a corner of my conscience is nagging, begging me to place a nice sum on Christie's Intrade contract, which is paying almost 2:1 post-fees.

Way ahead of you my friend, I bought it when it was 32.5, and I could sell now at 36.0. I'm willing to bet its going to go higher, hopefully above 40. I just need to make a decision over whether I'm going to hold on for a bigger win.

I bought Corzine for 45.0 several weeks ago, now it's down to 61. I failed to look at the prices these last couple of days, damn it. I really should have sold if it got up to 70.

[Tender Branson]

Rick Santorum thinks Daggett should follow Dede and drop out:

Daggett Should Follow the Scozzafava Lead    [Rick Santorum]

When Assemblywomen Dede Scozzafava suspended her campaign because it appeared that her Conservative-party opponent, a Republican, stood a better chance to win on Tuesday she noted that she was a proud Republican.  What she demonstrated was more than that.  She showed she had the integrity and humility to step aside so the team, the Republican/conservative (small “c”) party would have a better chance to be victorious.  Clearly she was not a conservative and she took a beating from national conservatives, including me, for it.  However, her announcement today is a lesson to all of us—that even those in our party who may not agree with us on many of our core principles and positions not only still want to be on our team, but want us to win. 

Over a week ago I announced my support for the Conservative Doug Hoffman stating that I was a Republican before I was a conservative and that I had never before endorsed a third-party candidate in a general election against a Republican.  I did so not only because Hoffman was more conservative, but I saw that coming down the stretch Hoffman had the best chance of winning against the Democrat.

We are faced with another three-way race for the governorship of New Jersey.  The state of New Jersey is in a free fall under the inept leadership of Jon Corzine. Would I ever consider supporting the Independent candidate Chris Daggett there? Perhaps, if I thought, in these final days, the situation there were anything like it was in NY-23.  But it is not. If you take a look at the Real Clear Politics poll average, Daggett is at 12 percent while Corzine and Christie are tied at 41 percent.  What has been clear in all of the polls is that Corzine can’t break out of the low 40s in support.

Daggett, meanwhile, isn’t a Libertarian or a Socialist. He isn’t carrying the banner for a cause or a party that he has embraced.  He is running, I suspect, because he knows that another four years of Corzine would be a continuing train wreck for New Jersey and he thinks he could do a better job than Chris Christie.

Like Scozzafava, Daggett was a liberal Republican in the Tom Kean mold (Daggett worked for Kean) in New Jersey.  Unlike Scozzafava, he left the party to join another cause, his own.  Like Scozzafava, Daggett is not going to win the election on Tuesday.  Scozzafava withdrew because she put what is best for her district and her country above her personal aspirations.  Let’s see if Daggett can exhibit the same selflessness.

 — Rick Santorum, fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, is a former United States senator from Pennsylvania. He is the regular guest host on Fridays on Bill Bennett’s Morning in America radio show.

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTExNmI2NDkzMTEzYWRkOWQ1OTU1MjA2ZjUzYzNiMmE=

[Tender Branson]

New Strategic Vision poll out:

Christie: 49%
Corzine: 39%
Daggett: 6%
Undecided: 6%

Below are the results of a three-day poll in the state of New Jersey. Results are based on telephone interviews with 1200 likely voters in New Jersey, aged 18+, and conducted October 28-30, 2009 by telephone. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/newjersey_poll_103109.htm

[Rowan]

That link seems to be broken.

[Tender Branson]

That link seems to be broken.

I´m sure they'll fix it, like everything else ...

[East Coast Republican]

New Strategic Vision poll out:

Christie: 49%
Corzine: 39%
Daggett: 6%
Undecided: 6%

Below are the results of a three-day poll in the state of New Jersey. Results are based on telephone interviews with 1200 likely voters in New Jersey, aged 18+, and conducted October 28-30, 2009 by telephone. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/newjersey_poll_103109.htm

GARBAGE!
http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/newjersey_poll_092409.htm

Christie 46%
Corzine 38%
Daggett 8%
Undecided 8%

Tender Branson got the numbers wrong.  STILL GARBAGE.  JUST LIKE DEMOCRACY CORPS EXCEPT WITH A RIGHT BENT.

[Ronnie]

9. Former President Jimmy Carter said recently that much of the opposition to President Obama and his health care policy is based upon racism, do you agree or disagree with this statement?
Agree 21%
Disagree 67%
Undecided 12%

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

How can a polling company include a question like this?  Are they out of their minds?

[Rowan]

New Strategic Vision poll out:

Christie: 49%
Corzine: 39%
Daggett: 6%
Undecided: 6%

Below are the results of a three-day poll in the state of New Jersey. Results are based on telephone interviews with 1200 likely voters in New Jersey, aged 18+, and conducted October 28-30, 2009 by telephone. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/newjersey_poll_103109.htm

GARBAGE!
http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/newjersey_poll_092409.htm

Christie 46%
Corzine 38%
Daggett 8%
Undecided 8%

Tender Branson got the numbers wrong.  STILL GARBAGE.  JUST LIKE DEMOCRACY CORPS EXCEPT WITH A RIGHT BENT.

That poll is from September...

[Franzl]

umm, Ronnie, that's far over the national numbers in favor of Carter's statement.

[East Coast Republican]

Oh look!  That poll really is from September! 

SO where is Tender Branson getting this POLL?  He made it up didn't he?

[© tweed]

I find it interesting when one poster develops an intense hatred for another.

[Holmes]

Throw it into the Suffolk pile?

[RRusso1982]

Tender, is that Strategic Vision poll real or did u make that up? I cant see why you would make it up since youre a corzine supporter

[Eraserhead]

I think Tender is goofing around a bit. Good show, buddy.

[Tender Branson]

I think Tender is goofing around a bit. Good show, buddy.

Yeah, you are right. I do that once in a while ...

[Tender Branson]

Now a REAL poll by Monmouth University/Gannett:

Christie: 43%
Corzine: 42%
Daggett: 8%

The telephone poll of 1,041 likely voters was taken Oct. 28-30 and has a sampling error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

http://www.nj.com/hudson/index.ssf/2009/11/latest_poll_has_corzine_christ.html

[Tender Branson]

YouGov/Polimetrix (internet poll):

Corzine: 43%
Christie: 41%
Daggett: 8%

http://twitter.com/MysteryPollster

[SPQR]

Who the hell is this Daggett guy?

[Hash]

Who the hell is this Daggett guy?

Independent centrist-y candidate.

[cinyc]

9. Former President Jimmy Carter said recently that much of the opposition to President Obama and his health care policy is based upon racism, do you agree or disagree with this statement?
Agree 21%
Disagree 67%
Undecided 12%

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

How can a polling company include a question like this?  Are they out of their minds?

Seems like a perfectly legitimate question to ask, to me.  Former President Carter raised the issue.  It was in the news.  Pollsters ask questions about things in the news all the time.

Strategic Vision is partisan, but not a terrible pollster, by the way.  Their 2008 presidential primary polling was about average.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Who the hell is this Daggett guy?

Independent centrist-y candidate.

Former Republican.  Cabinet member in the Kean administration.