2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

It's an interesting poll.  Again, Corzine didn't really move up—he's still under 40.  It's just that Christie moved backward a bit.  Daggett moved up, but it may be more of a case of "None of the Above" moving up.

The reason for the undeniable tightening seems to be that retarded mammogram issue.  Women moved big to Corzine (Christie actually trails slightly among women) but men remain intensely committed to Christie.  Unfortunately, it seems that voters might actually prefer women going uninsured to those same women having insurance that is not required by law to contain mammogram screenings.  (Good job, voters.)

The inclusion of Daggett in these polls makes things confusing, since most people agree he's not actually going to get the 12% he's currently polling at.  PoliticsNJ mentioned a 1997 Q-poll that included all the independent candidates and not just Murray Sabrin wound up being the most accurate predictor of Sabrin's final total (~5%), so that may be a good future direction for the poll to take.

I've said it before, and I'll say it over and over again:
The people of New Jersey do not deserve good government because they routinely vote against it.

[Meeker]

Clearly the Yes We Can 2.0 Campaign Effort is making a big difference.

[Verily]

It's an interesting poll.  Again, Corzine didn't really move up—he's still under 40.  It's just that Christie moved backward a bit.  Daggett moved up, but it may be more of a case of "None of the Above" moving up.

The reason for the undeniable tightening seems to be that retarded mammogram issue.  Women moved big to Corzine (Christie actually trails slightly among women) but men remain intensely committed to Christie.  Unfortunately, it seems that voters might actually prefer women going uninsured to those same women having insurance that is not required by law to contain mammogram screenings.  (Good job, voters.)

The inclusion of Daggett in these polls makes things confusing, since most people agree he's not actually going to get the 12% he's currently polling at.  PoliticsNJ mentioned a 1997 Q-poll that included all the independent candidates and not just Murray Sabrin wound up being the most accurate predictor of Sabrin's final total (~5%), so that may be a good future direction for the poll to take.

I've said it before, and I'll say it over and over again:
The people of New Jersey do not deserve good government because they routinely vote against it.

Wait, Christie would be good government? Excuse me while I laugh until I vomit.

[Eraserhead]

It's an interesting poll.  Again, Corzine didn't really move up—he's still under 40.  It's just that Christie moved backward a bit.  Daggett moved up, but it may be more of a case of "None of the Above" moving up.

The reason for the undeniable tightening seems to be that retarded mammogram issue.  Women moved big to Corzine (Christie actually trails slightly among women) but men remain intensely committed to Christie.  Unfortunately, it seems that voters might actually prefer women going uninsured to those same women having insurance that is not required by law to contain mammogram screenings.  (Good job, voters.)

The inclusion of Daggett in these polls makes things confusing, since most people agree he's not actually going to get the 12% he's currently polling at.  PoliticsNJ mentioned a 1997 Q-poll that included all the independent candidates and not just Murray Sabrin wound up being the most accurate predictor of Sabrin's final total (~5%), so that may be a good future direction for the poll to take.

I've said it before, and I'll say it over and over again:
The people of New Jersey do not deserve good government because they routinely vote against it.

Wait, Christie would be good government? Excuse me while I laugh until I vomit.

haha, I was thinking the same.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Wait, Christie would be good government? Excuse me while I laugh until I vomit.

haha, I was thinking the same.

To each their own, I suppose, but it's clear that the solution is not another four years of total Democratic control without any real checks and balances.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

State Senator Sweeney released a letter today showing he has the endorsement of a majority of Democratic Senators.  Barring Republican intervention, Dick Codey is out.

Part of the deal appears to have been giving the Assembly Speakership to Shiela Oliver, an Essex County Democrat.

This means that if Corzine wins in November, the Governor, Assembly Speaker, and Senate President will all be mustachioed.

[Brittain33]

To each their own, I suppose, but it's clear that the solution is not another four years of total Democratic control without any real checks and balances.

Are you writing off 2011 already?

[Linus Van Pelt]

State Senator Sweeney released a letter today showing he has the endorsement of a majority of Democratic Senators.  Barring Republican intervention, Dick Codey is out.

Part of the deal appears to have been giving the Assembly Speakership to Shiela Oliver, an Essex County Democrat.

This means that if Corzine wins in November, the Governor, Assembly Speaker, and Senate President will all be mustachioed.

Uh, what? Or is this some snide remark about facial hair on the good assemblywoman Oliver?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

To each their own, I suppose, but it's clear that the solution is not another four years of total Democratic control without any real checks and balances.

Are you writing off 2011 already?

Well, I suppose anything could happen.  Redistricting is a huge question mark, and I suppose theoretically, Republicans could win control of the Assembly in 2009 or 2011 even if Christie loses.

Without Christie in Drumthwacket, though, any Republicans who score pick ups in 2009 will most likely lose in 2011.  It's a simple matter of fundraising cash and the intense blue shade of the competitive districts this go around.  It'd be really cool for the GOP to pick up a district centered around Plainfield or Woodbridge, but without some creative line drawing, they're historical footnotes.

[The Age Wave]

I must say I am thoroughly surprised Christie has managed to maintain his lead. Even as a Democrat, I am supporting Christie so I see it as good news. I can't stand Corzine and ache to see him fall like Santorum did in 2006. His elite background and condescending attitude, as well as sheer incompetence, definitely turn me off of him. Of course, I don't even really know anything about the other candidate so I can't comment on him, but at least Christie isn't a crazy Ron Paul type or Jim DeMint type.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Debate number one is tonight.

A new Monmouth U/Gannett puts Christie ahead 43–40, with Daggett getting 13%.

[Tender Branson]

Debate number one is tonight.

A new Monmouth U/Gannett puts Christie ahead 43–40, with Daggett getting 13% 8%.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Debate number one is tonight.

A new Monmouth U/Gannett puts Christie ahead 43–40, with Daggett getting 13% 8%.

Whoops, yeah, it's only 8% in the Monmouth poll.  I was accidentally reading off the 13 from Quinnipiac.

[Tender Branson]

Debate number one is tonight.

A new Monmouth U/Gannett puts Christie ahead 43–40, with Daggett getting 13% 8%.

Whoops, yeah, it's only 8% in the Monmouth poll.  I was accidentally reading off the 13 from Quinnipiac.

What's also pretty interesting is the fact that only 3% of RV and 5% of LV know that this debate is today ...

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

What's also pretty interesting is the fact that only 3% of RV and 5% of LV know that this debate is today ...

All part of the Corzine strategy.

Corzine is a notoriously bad debater. Christie is no doubt crossing his fingers for a debate moment that looks good being replayed on a negative attack ad.

[Verily]

Everyone has to stay up late. There will be no exit polls. The NJ Supreme Court just banned them again.

http://www.wtop.com/?nid=104&sid=1775646

[DownWithTheLeft]

Debate number one is tonight.

DEBATE PARTY!!!

[Verily]

Wait, Christie would be good government? Excuse me while I laugh until I vomit.

haha, I was thinking the same.

To each their own, I suppose, but it's clear that the solution is not another four years of total Democratic control without any real checks and balances.

"Checks and balances"? Split party control just means bickering and complete stoppage of government. The idea that parties actually police each other is a complete joke. Look at the New York legislature--was that good government? No, corruption was if anything worse during the years the Republicans held the State Senate. The only way anything could be passed was by bribing Republicans in the Senate (or Democrats in the Assembly) with pork or other things of "special interest" to themselves. Corruption would be even worse if Christie had to bribe the Democrats to pass his agenda (or Democrats had to bribe Christie to pass theirs).

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Wait, Christie would be good government? Excuse me while I laugh until I vomit.

haha, I was thinking the same.

To each their own, I suppose, but it's clear that the solution is not another four years of total Democratic control without any real checks and balances.

"Checks and balances"? Split party control just means bickering and complete stoppage of government. The idea that parties actually police each other is a complete joke. Look at the New York legislature--was that good government? No, corruption was if anything worse during the years the Republicans held the State Senate. The only way anything could be passed was by bribing Republicans in the Senate (or Democrats in the Assembly) with pork or other things of "special interest" to themselves. Corruption would be even worse if Christie had to bribe the Democrats to pass his agenda (or Democrats had to bribe Christie to pass theirs).

Voters should be the ones doing the policing, and they have shown a pretty reliable disinterest in getting it right in New Jersey for more than a decade now.  Frankly, we're approaching a system of government where the voters don't even matter—Chiappone will probably go to jail for his crimes, and he'll probably beat 70% of the (adjusted) vote.

Are things getting better in New Jersey, or are they getting worse?  Surely, you understand what yesterday's developments mean for Norcross—South Jersey Democrats get their guy by crowning a North Jersey pawn.  Great for Shiela Oliver, I suppose!  Maybe her career can have the same terrific trajectory as the previous pawn, Albio Sires!

Great for Commerce Bank, too, I'll bet!

Meanwhile, voters lose the last statewide Democratic office holder worth respecting.  Thanks, Dick.  Hope the shoe doesn't get stuck in your ass when we boot you the hell out.

Lament about New York if you will, but one thing's for sure: The Democratic Party will not reform itself.  If the voters don't show up to kick one or two bums out every now and then, why should anything happen but a hastening of the pace at which the political bosses suck the state dry?

Should Jon Corzine win, the message is clear: Democrats can do anything in New Jersey.  No matter how incompetent you are, no matter what you do, no matter how corrupt you are, no matter where you're from, no matter how likable you are, no matter your political background or ideology, it doesn't matter—if you're a Dem, you're a winner.  Chris Christie may not be the best apple in the orchard, but he's certainly not the worst there is to offer.  Democrats have done a good job smearing him with a lot of small things, but there's been no major disqualifier as of yet.  This election has been turning on a hypothetical technicality of a well-meaning plan.

Maybe I'm foolish for thinking so, but I hope that if Democrats actually lose the Governor's mansion and the Assembly, they'll have a heck of a wake up call on November 4.

If Republicans can actually start being a viable party again, Democrats will actually have some level of pressure to choose worthwhile candidates.  And maybe, just maybe, they'll even exert political pressure to dump the "powerful" ones in safe seats.

Will it guarantee it?  No.  Will it have a high level of probability?  Probably not.

But frankly, it's the only damn bullet left in the chamber.  We'll see whether the voters wind up shooting it at the Democrats or their own skulls.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Here's a sad obit of an impressive career:
http://www.northjersey.com/news/state/63025142.html

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's a sad obit of an impressive career:
http://www.northjersey.com/news/state/63025142.html

Codey really should have been the nominee in 2005. Shame.

Any chance he'll make a run in 2013, or for Lautenberg's seat when he (hopefully) retires?

[YankeeFan007]

Does anyone know what channel the debate is on?

[YankeeFan007]

I'm being totally honest here when I say that Daggett won the debate, which means that Corzine won the debate.  No B.S. or partisan hackery from me right now.  How can Corzine lose when the Independent candiate is complimenting you every time he talks and belittling Christie?   How can Christie win when he's asked the same question 3 times, but can't give an answer that isn't vague? 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'm being totally honest here when I say that Daggett won the debate, which means that Corzine won the debate.  No B.S. or partisan hackery from me right now.  How can Corzine lose when the Independent candiate is complimenting you every time he talks and belittling Christie?   How can Christie win when he's asked the same question 3 times, but can't give an answer that isn't vague? 

Dunno if anyone can win a debate that no one watches.

[Rowan]

I can't imagine more than a few thousand partisan hacks even watched it. Heck, I didn't even watch it.