Status of the Bradley Effect?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm leaning toward option 1, and even if the basic premise of it has occurred, the Bradley Effect oversimplifies things greatly, in a nutshell people might lie to pollsters and polls can be off for many reasons, maybe race might be one, but assuming that it's always going to be the main overriding factor and thus we must always adjust polls X points for the Bradley Effect is beyond inane.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Alaskan Democrats and gays seem to have problems.

Alaskan Republicans seem to always do better than how they poll.
And the Field poll was remarkably off for Prop. 8.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Alaskan Democrats and gays seem to have problems.

Alaskan Republicans seem to always do better than how they poll.
And the Field poll was remarkably off for Prop. 8.

...which really all has nothing to do with the Bradley Effect.

[Stranger in a strange land]

It seems to have existed in the 80s, but subsided and eventually disappeared when crime, crack, and welfare ceased to be hot-button issues, and when the older New Deal era Democrats and Dixiecrats most susceptible to it started dying off.

Also, polling is now more frequent and of better quality than it was then.

[7,052,770]

It always seemed to be there ought to be a reverse Bradley Effect, in that people wouldn't want to admit to anyone, not even a stranger pollster that they were voting for a black, but once they were in the privacy of an election booth, they'd do it.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It always seemed to be there ought to be a reverse Bradley Effect, in that people wouldn't want to admit to anyone, not even a stranger pollster that they were voting for a black, but once they were in the privacy of an election booth, they'd do it.

Well, whatever, 538 has nailed the current margin, the only problem is that it was 0.1% too low for both of them.

[dead0man]

It always seemed to be there ought to be a reverse Bradley Effect, in that people wouldn't want to admit to anyone, not even a stranger pollster that they were voting for a black, but once they were in the privacy of an election booth, they'd do it.

That's probably true....in Mississippi.  Or Boston/NYC.  The rest of us care a lot less about race and aren't afraid of to mention out loud that we're not racists.

[Sensei]

totally debunked

[Eraserhead]

You could make a case for it in Arkansas this year, maybe. Otherwise...