Predict Pennsylvania

[J. J.]

O +5 right now....

O+8 when JJ reports astronomical turnout at his polling place at 3:00pm ET.

If I do.  The key number is 170.

[Monty]

Obama 54   
McCain 45   
Others 1

[Person Man]

Obama by 5, +/- 4

[SPC]

These posts will be ripe for the Comedy Goldmine in three days.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Obama wins 52-47

[RosettaStoned]

Obama: 52%
McCain: 48%

[TheGlobalizer]

Obama: 52%
McCain: 48%

I'll say 51/48/1.

[Moooooo]

Whats the weather look like for Philly?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Obama/Biden: 52%
McCain/Palin: 47%
Others: 1%

[Wall St. Wiz]

Obama +2.5

[J. J.]

Whats the weather look like for Philly?

Clear and mid 60's.  Weather looks good across the state.

Edit:  There might be a coastal storm.

[Mr.Jones]

Obama by 2.5 to 3.0 %

[TeePee4Prez]

Obama 53/McCain 46/kooks 1

[Firefly]

Obama +7

[J. J.]

Weather update:  40% chance of AM rain with a 70% chance of evening rain on Election Day.  It's a coastal storm, moving north, so if will affect the Phila region first.

[Mr.Phips]

Weather update:  40% chance of AM rain with a 70% chance of evening rain on Election Day.  It's a coastal storm, moving north, so if will affect the Phila region first.

Who does this benefit?

[Lunar]

Weather update:  40% chance of AM rain with a 70% chance of evening rain on Election Day.  It's a coastal storm, moving north, so if will affect the Phila region first.

Who does this benefit?

Two theories:

1) Typically Democrats benefit from higher turnout because there are more of them (this is why RV polls are more pro-D than LV ones)
2) Obama supporters are more enthusiastic and less likely to be turned away


I lean towards #1, especially in PA

[Ban my account ffs!]

Obama: 51.2%
McCain: 47.1%
Others: 1.7%

[J. J.]

Weather update:  40% chance of AM rain with a 70% chance of evening rain on Election Day.  It's a coastal storm, moving north, so if will affect the Phila region first.

Who does this benefit?

Most black voters in the city vote early, but a few don't.  Rain later in the day could suppress in the heavily black areas slightly.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

At what things are looking like most blacks would stand through a meteor storm to vote for Obama.

[J. J.]

At what things are looking like most blacks would stand through a meteor storm to vote for Obama.

You know, I just don't know.  The last time I saw this many signs was 2000, and turnout was terrible.  I saw few in 2004, and turnout was great.  I cannot call it.

[Lunar]

At what things are looking like most blacks would stand through a meteor storm to vote for Obama.

Weather doesn't affect base voters.

[J. J.]

At what things are looking like most blacks would stand through a meteor storm to vote for Obama.

Weather doesn't affect base voters.

Not the real base, those folks that voted in every election for the last 25 years, but new voters, and those that just come out for "big" elections, possibly.  There are these new voters and I have no idea what they'll be up to.

[MODU]

Strangely enough, I am beginning to shift my view and say that McCain has a slightly better chance of winning Pennsylvania.  Between Obama insulting rural PA during the primaries, the Murtha insulting Western PA (first being racist and then redneck), and now audio of Obama wanting to make it economically impossible to build new coal plants (basically killing the economies of Western PA), that might be enough to tip the SW counties of PA in McCain's favor.

[Keystone Phil]

Oh, I bet you're all anxiously awaiting...