Which of these four states is McCain most likely to win?

[NOVA Green]

They all seem out of reach, but I'll go with Colorado given his proximity to the state...

Early voting in CO has all but put that state out of reach for McCain at this point.... he would simply have to win those who haven't voted by insane numbers for that to happen.

I would say VA is the most likely, and I am still skeptical about Obama's margins in NOVA which is essential his success in this state.

[War on Want]

Pennsylvania

[Brittain33]

None of them. The honest answer is, any scenario that has McCain winning any of these states has scrambled the context so much that the current relative standings wouldn't hold. And I can't imagine what scenario could do that.

[LanceMcSteel]

None, all are safe Obama.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Pennsylvania, but that's not saying much.

[J. J.]

VA, followed by CO, PA, and IA.

[Joe Biden 2020]

VA, followed by CO, PA, and IA.

In that order.

[Nym90]

Virginia.

[Vandervecken]

Going by the polling.... PA.

I still have BIG BIG doubts about VA being so firmly in Obama's column.... the other two are gone.

In real life I've been telling this to a couple of my mother's friends when I was visiting her last week in FL. Definitely weird and I'm not buying it.

And I agree with your picks, PA and VA. IA and CO gone. You Iowans--take it easy on the corn husk hashish. Say bye bye to your guns if you help Obama in. I guarantee you he will federalize all gun law if elected. It would probably be called the "National Protect Our Kids Act"  instead of the "United States Federal Arms Control Act".

Respectfully... are you serious?

Can you imagine the s**t-storm of trying to take federal control of gun laws?

No sensible person would take that on... the reason why abortion, gay marriage etc etc are left to the states.... it's too messy to deal with.

Respectfully, are you sure you're serious about doubting the reasonableness of my seriousness? And I am serious. Why do you imagine this is beyond the feds' reach? Has the hard left ever made any secret of its desire to completely disarm everyone? I've just described to you how it can be done. Abortion and gay marriage are Demlib sacred cows, so naturally the libmedia ignites a sh**tstorm, as you way. Quite opposite, gun ownership is a hatred of the left. It's only on the right that proposed federalization of restrictions (and in the case of gay marriage, a sensible one) create sh**tstorms of opposition, ginned up by the MSM. And this time, the Dems would have all the actual political power.

You're completely understimating the extent to which the left will go. Start thinking the unthinkable if you are talking about an Obama Presidency and Democrat hold of Congress.

[TomC]

Penn, I think.

[Reaganfan]

Will win:
VA

Should win:
PA

Could win:
CO

Will not win:
IA

[Associate Justice PiT]

     VA. PA is tough for him while CO & IA are as good as gone.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Voted for Pennsylvania in the poll but really meant to select Virginia.

Realistically, those four states mentioned are all un-winnable for the McCain campaign. Though I'm sure some of the most ardent Republicans on this forum would beg to differ with myself.

[Torie]

McCain will lose them all by near equal margins. Just a wild thought.

[Ronnie]

McCain will lose them all by near equal margins. Just a wild thought.

Even Iowa?  No way, Torie.

[Torie]

McCain will lose them all by near equal margins. Just a wild thought.

Even Iowa?  No way, Torie.

If you don't do something edgy, folks will put you on ignore Ronnie. McCain loses them all by 5%. We shall see.

[NOVA Green]

McCain will lose them all by near equal margins. Just a wild thought.

Even Iowa?  No way, Torie.

If you don't do something edgy, folks will put you on ignore Ronnie. McCain loses them all by 5%. We shall see.

I think Ronnie might actually be right on this one for a change compared to your perspective that I normally agree with on many discussions.

[Ronnie]

McCain will lose them all by near equal margins. Just a wild thought.

Even Iowa?  No way, Torie.

If you don't do something edgy, folks will put you on ignore Ronnie. McCain loses them all by 5%. We shall see.

I didn't insult anyone to make them put me on ignore.  I don't believe Iowa will be close, and you shouldn't call me out on it.  I previously responded to you regarding why Iowa won't be close, so do you want me to search through my previous posts?

If you want to put me on ignore, go ahead.  I wouldn't understand why, though.

[Torie]

"You" meant me, not you, Ronnie. Sorry that my prose was inartful. I was just jiving. What I was saying, if that if I didn't get edgy, maybe I would be put on ignore. Playing it down the middle might get to be  a bore for some.

[Nym90]

"You" meant me, not you, Ronnie. Sorry that my prose was inartful. I was just jiving. What I was saying, if that if I didn't get edgy, maybe I would be put on ignore. Playing it down the middle might get to be  a bore for some.

Hey, there's something to be said for extremely boring rationality. I'm proud of the fact that despite being the Forum's single longest tenured member I get 1/10000000th the number of polls in the Forum Community what if matchups as BRTD or Opebo.

[NOVA Green]

Going by the polling.... PA.

I still have BIG BIG doubts about VA being so firmly in Obama's column.... the other two are gone.

In real life I've been telling this to a couple of my mother's friends when I was visiting her last week in FL. Definitely weird and I'm not buying it.

And I agree with your picks, PA and VA. IA and CO gone. You Iowans--take it easy on the corn husk hashish. Say bye bye to your guns if you help Obama in. I guarantee you he will federalize all gun law if elected. It would probably be called the "National Protect Our Kids Act"  instead of the "United States Federal Arms Control Act".

Respectfully... are you serious?

Can you imagine the s**t-storm of trying to take federal control of gun laws?

No sensible person would take that on... the reason why abortion, gay marriage etc etc are left to the states.... it's too messy to deal with.

Respectfully, are you sure you're serious about doubting the reasonableness of my seriousness? And I am serious. Why do you imagine this is beyond the feds' reach? Has the hard left ever made any secret of its desire to completely disarm everyone? I've just described to you how it can be done. Abortion and gay marriage are Demlib sacred cows, so naturally the libmedia ignites a sh**tstorm, as you way. Quite opposite, gun ownership is a hatred of the left. It's only on the right that proposed federalization of restrictions (and in the case of gay marriage, a sensible one) create sh**tstorms of opposition, ginned up by the MSM. And this time, the Dems would have all the actual political power.

You're completely understimating the extent to which the left will go. Start thinking the unthinkable if you are talking about an Obama Presidency and Democrat hold of Congress.

Sorry, but there are plenty of us gun-loving Westerners voting for Obama that won't allow that to happen.

Ultimately, this is an issue where there is constitution, and regardless of political pressure from certain quarters to restrict gun rights, this is something which will end up in the courts in the event that some law exceeds basic reasonable public safety limitations.

[Reds4]

I voted Va... truth is though none of them seem too likely.