A week out - what's your prediction?

[davajuan]

I guess I'm being pessimistic but I can't just don't feel confident enough about Ohio and Florida for Obama yet.
Image Link
Obama 291 51%
McCain 247 47%

This is nearly the only sane prediction on here.

Obama has been consistently leading in polls in Ohio and Florida. Why is it insane to project those states going to him?

First of all, I think "consistently leading" is pushing it. I do suppose it would be an overstatement by me to say it is "insane" to project either one for Obama.

Of course, I have my own reasons for thinking both will go McCain in the end.

I just think its entertaining to see Dems setting themselves up for a major breakdown. Why is it that the bravado of both the Obama campaign and its supporters just doesn't seem too stable?

[Brittain33]

I just think its entertaining to see Dems setting themselves up for a major breakdown. Why is it that the bravado of both the Obama campaign and its supporters just doesn't seem too stable?

Huh. I don't know, I think Dems have great reason for confidence right now. No one wants to say "it's over" but note that pretty much all we're disputing is the size of Obama's win. Every Democrat has in the back of his mind that something terrible can happen--think of all we've lived through this decade while you guys romped from one victory to another--but if ever there was cause for optimism in a Presidential election, it is this year.

[Gustaf]

I would say this: I expect Obama to win by a margin of around 5% or so in the end. Which way North Carolina, Missouri and Florida fall in that scenario I'm not entirely sure. I'm inclined to give Florida to Obama and Missouri to McCain. North Carolina...I don't know really. If anything, I think Obama doing better than this is more likely than him doing worse.

[Silent Hunter]

Obama wins with 52-54% of the popular vote, but McCain manages to flip Pennsylvania.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Obama wins with 52-54% of the popular vote, but McCain manages to flip Pennsylvania.

NC would flip before GA

[JSojourner]

I'm impressed that Opebo remains firmly pessimistic while I, usually the most reliably pessimistic of liberals, have at least moved a little.  But if Opie is right, I won't be terribly surprised.  That will be me, under my desk, cuddling a bottle of gin.

Here is my prediction...

[Marokai Backbeat]

338-200

I think North Carolina and Missouri are tossups at the moment and I almost just labeled them as such but I think when election day comes they'll narrowly go to McCain. At this stage though they very well could go for Obama, I can't really say. Indiana may as well.

I also think Georgia will be closer than most expect it to be.

[Politico]

This thing is going to be closer than the polls right now suggest, count on it.

85% of the country is not happy with the direction of the country. There's no way that doesn't lead to a drubbing of the incumbent party, and only more people can find out between now and next Tuesday that McCain is the Republican Party's chosen successor to Bush.

[Daniel Z]

[Reaganfan]

I'm impressed that Opebo remains firmly pessimistic while I, usually the most reliably pessimistic of liberals, have at least moved a little.  But if Opie is right, I won't be terribly surprised.  That will be me, under my desk, cuddling a bottle of gin.

Here is my prediction...

I'm just about with you. I think that Obama's state numbers are overinflated.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Image Link

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

My prediction?.....PAIN!

[Firefly]

Electoral College
Obama 375
McCain 163

Popular Vote
Obama 54%
McCain 46%

Even though Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida are tossups, they likely will not decide the election. Obama will win the Presidency with 286 electoral votes even if he loses all six of the tossup states. McCain's only hope is to win all of the tossup states and to steal either "Pennsylvania" or "Virginia and Colorado" or "Virginia and New Mexico." That will be near impossible, since Obama has a slight advantage in five of the six tossup states. Indiana, I see as a true tossup, the outcome of which we will probably not know until the day after, or perhaps days or weeks after, the election. North Carolina and Missouri will also be two of the final states called.

My prediction is for Obama to carry all six tossup states and win the Presidency in a landslide electoral college victory of 375-163. As for the popular vote, I predict Obama will defeat McCain 54%-46%.  Votes for third-party/independent candidates will be negligible.

[Person Man]

The polls are beginning to affirm my 338-200 prediction. Missouri, Indiana and North Carolina are "coming home" and Virginia, Colorado and now even Nevada are beginning to look ridiculous.

[opebo]

The polls are beginning to affirm my 338-200 prediction. Missouri, Indiana and North Carolina are "coming home" and Virginia, Colorado and now even Nevada are beginning to look ridiculous.

You mean to say that Missouri, Indiana, and North Carolina are 'coming home' to Republicanism, and that our hopes for Virginia, Colorado and Nevada are beginning to look ridiculous?

[ucscgaldamez]

My prediction:

Electoral college:
Obama 278
McCain 260

Popular Vote
Obama 50%
McCain 48%

[© tweed]

The polls are beginning to affirm my 338-200 prediction. Missouri, Indiana and North Carolina are "coming home" and Virginia, Colorado and now even Nevada are beginning to look ridiculous.

You mean to say that Missouri, Indiana, and North Carolina are 'coming home' to Republicanism, and that our hopes for Virginia, Colorado and Nevada are beginning to look ridiculous?

you're overplaying the shtick, bro

[Brittain33]

The polls are beginning to affirm my 338-200 prediction. Missouri, Indiana and North Carolina are "coming home" and Virginia, Colorado and now even Nevada are beginning to look ridiculous.

You mean to say that Missouri, Indiana, and North Carolina are 'coming home' to Republicanism, and that our hopes for Virginia, Colorado and Nevada are beginning to look ridiculous?

you're overplaying the shtick, bro

SRSLY