A week out - what's your prediction?

[Brittain33]

you believe ne-02 would fall before nc?!?

Is it so wrawng?

[WalterMitty]

you believe ne-02 would fall before nc?!?

Is it so wrawng?

what makes you think it would?

[Sam Spade]

So, in other words, the PA gambit is useless...

I reserve the right to change my mind but, yeah, probably. The structural advantage that the Democrats have in that state just seems too large for McCain to have any hope of overcoming in an election like this. The word "gambit" says it all, really. Especially as we aren't in the opening stages of the game anymore...

You're probably right on PA, but who knows.  On the list, it's the state I'm least sure about being solid colored (maybe WI too, since the polling there is always questionable, but the Dems have an even better built-in advantage).  I also question the gray on AZ and AR, but it's not a biggie.

[Brittain33]

you believe ne-02 would fall before nc?!?

Is it so wrawng?

what makes you think it would?

Obama's organized and active there. The incumbent (R) is producing fliers linking himself to Obama. So, clearly, it's in play at some level. Beyond that, I'm simply optimistic about Obama in the Midwest and somewhat pessimistic about his performance in the South.

[Nym90]

I would be shocked if any of the red goes blue. I would be shocked if any of the blue goes red. Greys are not true tossups, of course. But they all have the potential to move in either direction (even this late in the day. Do not underestimate the ability of the electorate to mack a mockery of us all) and often depend upon things that, whisper it quietly, we don't understand and will never be able to properly understand.

Was looking forward to the classic noncomittal prediction map. I love your ability to be vague and obscure.

I'll put it at Obama somewhere between 300 to 350. It's more likely to go above 350 than below 300, but I do think the race will tighten in the last week (as most races usually have in recent times) and the undecideds will break slightly for McCain (for various reasons).

[pepper11]

McCain 272-266

[Sensei]

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

[Torie]

Not sure about Missouri, but I think you have it about right Duke, unless of course it is really going to be a mini Obama blowout which it might.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Obama 349
McCain 189

[HardRCafé]

As long as we're just having fun instead of striving for accuracy:

[Eleanor Martins]

[Person Man]

I wouldn't be suprised if the Republicans wake up in the morning with a hangover and a really painful and stretched out asshole. ...but polls should probably close slightly and the hand phone effect minus what Bradley effect you will have will probably put the race at O +5, when the polls say O +6 (pretty generous, but reasonable for Micky C)

[Sarnstrom]

I guess I'm being pessimistic but I can't just don't feel confident enough about Ohio and Florida for Obama yet.
Image Link
Obama 291 51%
McCain 247 47%

[auburntiger]

This is my optimistic map: 286-252 Obama

This is my own prediction: 338-200 Obama

This is my blowout map, whereupon everyone around me at Auburn will be plastered before 10:00. Obama 411-127

[Tender Branson]

As of today, I'd say:

MO, NC and FL are really close. I'll give IN, GA, ND and MT to McCain, by at least 2%.

[Reaganfan]

Obama: 286
McCain: 252

I believe the polls are over-inflated for Obama, relying too much on registered voters rather than likely voters. I also think that a good amount of blacks and youth voters will not show up at the polls, thus states like Indiana, North Carolina, ect that are all close...will break for McCain.

If McCain holds Virginia, he still loses the White House. However...if he pulls in Virginia and Colorado (something tells me that Colorado might surprise Obama) then he wins.

[opebo]

Opebo, do you not trust polls?

Not one little bit, Ronnie, not one little bit.  Not, alas, with a black man running.

Alas I fear this:

From your EV Map to God's Ear man.

Haha, I like that.  Don't worry about God - you've got american racism on your side.

[Lunar]

Obama: 286
McCain: 252

I believe the polls are over-inflated for Obama, relying too much on registered voters rather than likely voters. I also think that a good amount of blacks and youth voters will not show up at the polls, thus states like Indiana, North Carolina, ect that are all close...will break for McCain.

If McCain holds Virginia, he still loses the White House. However...if he pulls in Virginia and Colorado (something tells me that Colorado might surprise Obama) then he wins.

If you flip NV, you'd probably arrive at "the most probable" outcome given what we're facing today.  Your map is probably the second most probable.

Props.

[Platypus]

Obama: 313
McCain: 225

Closest states: OH, FL, IN.

[davajuan]

I guess I'm being pessimistic but I can't just don't feel confident enough about Ohio and Florida for Obama yet.
Image Link
Obama 291 51%
McCain 247 47%

This is nearly the only sane prediction on here.

Some of you Dems are really setting yourselves up, and it is funny!

Kind of like Obama broadcasting his first State of the Union address tomorrow night.

This thing is going to be closer than the polls right now suggest, count on it.

And Opebo, do you play any other tunes besides America is Racist? Boring...

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Opebo, do you not trust polls?

Not one little bit, Ronnie, not one little bit.  Not, alas, with a black man running.

Alas I fear this:

From your EV Map to God's Ear man.

Haha, I like that.  Don't worry about God - you've got american racism on your side.

At least you have been consistent with your prediction here.....

[Brittain33]

I guess I'm being pessimistic but I can't just don't feel confident enough about Ohio and Florida for Obama yet.
Image Link
Obama 291 51%
McCain 247 47%

This is nearly the only sane prediction on here.

Obama has been consistently leading in polls in Ohio and Florida. Why is it insane to project those states going to him?

[Josh/Devilman88]

[TomC]

311-227