French Socialist Party leadership race, 2008
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #25 on: November 06, 2008, 08:55:10 PM »

The Le Drian endorsement seemed to have done wonders in Bretagne for Delanoe.

Impressive results for the eco-socialists in Ille-et-Vilaine, 12%. The departmental president endorsed them, though.

Basse Normandie: Hamon leads in Manche

He won all three Socialists in the Manche!

An uncle of mine lives there now, I think. Not sure how he votes here, or if he even does (he's not a French citizen, obviously).
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« Reply #26 on: November 06, 2008, 09:02:54 PM »

I can't find a list of which departments voted today (maybe they all did?), but Nouvel Obs has some results (and the article doesn't seem to imply that more federations have yet to vote):

Total: Royal 29%, Aubry 25%, Delanoë 25%, Hamon 19%
55% turnout


Paris: Delanoë 37 to 38%, Royal 25 to 26%
Lille: Aubry around 75%
Bouches-du-Rhône: Royal 71%
Hérault: Royal 54%

A reminder that this is the vote on motions, and that the election of the first secretary will be on November 20.
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« Reply #27 on: November 06, 2008, 09:07:50 PM »

The article is unclear whether or not the N-PdC voted today or not.

A map will be interesting come Sunday or whenever they announce all 102 fed results.
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« Reply #28 on: November 06, 2008, 09:17:14 PM »

This article seems to indicate that all departments voted today: all 102 federations must report their results by 1:00 AM.

The article is unclear whether or not the N-PdC voted today or not.

I'm guessing they did, but their results were processed later. That would explain why the Nouvel Obs had Aubry surge from 20% two hours ago to 25%.
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« Reply #29 on: November 07, 2008, 06:55:03 AM »

Stupidity always makes me laugh.

Go SťgolŤne, go ! Our French Sarah Palin...
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« Reply #30 on: November 07, 2008, 07:47:12 AM »

All departmental federations voted in the evening of Nov. 6th.

But, up to now, results aren't in in Cher and in overseas territories. Nothing is yet published by the Socialist Party.
I think they worry a lot of local results will be contested, especially if DelanoŽ and Aubry are within a small gap in the hundreds or the low thousands.....
So, we'll have to wait a bit !
But less than for Missouri pres. and MN sen. !!

Anyway, these results are awful for the Socialist Party.

DelanoŽ was sunk by the "old" image of Hollande and is now deeply weakened as he is the main loser. And Lionel Jospin, mentor of DelanoŽ, didn't even bother to vote yesterday....

Hamon benefited from the financial crisis, but what can he do ? He can't lead the Socialist Party. What is more, today, Mťlenchon and Dolez, 2 leftists who endorsed him, have announced that they leave the PS and will create a new leftist party. Sure, they won't have many troops, but this cut a bit the strength of Hamon's motion and, in the medias, this will have an influence.

Aubry does quite well, but she is mainly supported by Fabius (around 20% of the PS), so what can she really do ? And Hamon will refuse to let her lead the left of the party. Hamon's relative success is a problem for her.

Royal is celebrated by the medias as the winner, but who will rally her ? DelanoŽ is too weak and he hates her. Hollande cannot leave the DelanoŽ motion (and what does he represent alone ?).

"Rebellious" motions (Royal and Hamon) cannot make a majority and there are too far away ideologically.

"Traditional" motions (DelanoŽ and Aubry) cannot make a majority alone. And they are too much on a par.... One day, there will be a problem, at least to choose a first secretary who is anything else than a lame duck.

"Left" motions (Aubry and Hamon) cannot make a majority.

Aubry and Royal cannot agree: Fabius and Royal are arch enemies and Aubry can't stand Royal.

There are only 2 possible combinations:

1. the anti-Royal majority: DelanoŽ-Aubry-Fabius-Hamon. It's really possible, but it won't solve problems, notably who will be there candidate for the post of first secretary ? Difficult, as DelanoŽ's and Aubry's motions are on a par.... And wouldn't Hollande, Moscovici and some former supporters of Rocard (who rallied DelanoŽ) leave this majority to support the more moderate Royal ?
This is the likeliest solution I think, but not the more sustainable in the long term.... Fights would be left for the future....

2. the reformist and moderate majority: Royal-Valls-Moscovici-Hollande-DelanoŽ. A sort of re-creation of mitterrandist club.... minus the fabiusians, rallied to the heir of mauroyists (Aubry) and plus the former rocardians.
Politically, it sounds logical. BUT, considering personal aspects, it sounds very hard: DelanoŽ and Royal hate each other. And it will be regarded too much as an attempt to re-create the unsavvy Hollande majorities of recent years.

Really, these numbers are awful for the Socialists: had Royal won with 35% and Hamon with only 15%, it would have been very different for her; had DelanoŽ and Aubry made 30 each, even with Royal at 35%, they would have easily put Royal aside.
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« Reply #31 on: November 07, 2008, 08:02:20 AM »

All departmental federations voted in the evening of Nov. 6th.

But, up to now, results aren't in in Cher and in overseas territories. Nothing is yet published by the Socialist Party.
I think they worry a lot of local results will be contested, especially if DelanoŽ and Aubry are within a small gap in the hundreds or the low thousands.....
So, we'll have to wait a bit !
But less than for Missouri pres. and MN sen. !!

Apparently the PS is worrying about fraud.

Anyway, these results are awful for the Socialist Party.

Smiley. That's all those jokes deserve.

DelanoŽ was sunk by the "old" image of Hollande and is now deeply weakened as he is the main loser. And Lionel Jospin, mentor of DelanoŽ, didn't even bother to vote yesterday....

DelanoŽ led an awful campaign and the image painted of him by Les Guignols of being unable to leave Paris seems to be true. IIRC, he didn't campaign much outside of Paris.

Hamon benefited from the financial crisis, but what can he do ? He can't lead the Socialist Party. What is more, today, Mťlenchon and Dolez, 2 leftists who endorsed him, have announced that they leave the PS and will create a new leftist party. Sure, they won't have many troops, but this cut a bit the strength of Hamon's motion and, in the medias, this will have an influence.

New party? Lolz. Gotta love the French far-left.

Aubry does quite well, but she is mainly supported by Fabius (around 20% of the PS), so what can she really do ? And Hamon will refuse to let her lead the left of the party. Hamon's relative success is a problem for her.

Does Hamon like Aubry?

Royal is celebrated by the medias as the winner, but who will rally her ? DelanoŽ is too weak and he hates her. Hollande cannot leave the DelanoŽ motion (and what does he represent alone ?).

Everybody hates Royal, most importantly DelanoŽ and Aubry.

"Rebellious" motions (Royal and Hamon) cannot make a majority and there are too far away ideologically.

Royal would never team up with Hamon, unless she is even more of a dirty opportunist than I thought in the first place (which wouldn't surprise me).

"Traditional" motions (DelanoŽ and Aubry) cannot make a majority alone. And they are too much on a par.... One day, there will be a problem, at least to choose a first secretary who is anything else than a lame duck.

I heard somewhere that DelanoŽ and Aubry get along, but it's French politics and everybody is an egomaniac.

"Left" motions (Aubry and Hamon) cannot make a majority.

If they could take a majority, they would hypothetically be good together, but then again, ego.

Aubry and Royal cannot agree: Fabius and Royal are arch enemies and Aubry can't stand Royal.

You're too nice. Aubry despises Royal. Kind of like me and Arnaud Montebourg. Aubry would rather join the UMP than work with Royal.

There are only 2 possible combinations:

1. the anti-Royal majority: DelanoŽ-Aubry-Fabius-Hamon. It's really possible, but it won't solve problems, notably who will be there candidate for the post of first secretary ? Difficult, as DelanoŽ's and Aubry's motions are on a par.... And wouldn't Hollande, Moscovici and some former supporters of Rocard (who rallied DelanoŽ) leave this majority to support the more moderate Royal ?
This is the likeliest solution I think, but not the more sustainable in the long term.... Fights would be left for the future....

Agreed. For now, it seems like the most plausible coalition.

2. the reformist and moderate majority: Royal-Valls-Moscovici-Hollande-DelanoŽ. A sort of re-creation of mitterrandist club.... minus the fabiusians, rallied to the heir of mauroyists (Aubry) and plus the former rocardians.
Politically, it sounds logical. BUT, considering personal aspects, it sounds very hard: DelanoŽ and Royal hate each other. And it will be regarded too much as an attempt to re-create the unsavvy Hollande majorities of recent years.

Really, these numbers are awful for the Socialists: had Royal won with 35% and Hamon with only 15%, it would have been very different for her; had DelanoŽ and Aubry made 30 each, even with Royal at 35%, they would have easily put Royal aside.

Could sound plausible on paper, as you said, but then again, ego and feuds.

Whichever coalition wins, this means feud, feud, feud.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #32 on: November 07, 2008, 10:23:48 AM »
« Edited: November 07, 2008, 10:34:20 AM by big bad fab »

You're right: feud is the word of the day....

Mťlenchon and Marc Dolez (a deputy from the Nord department) want to emulate Die Linke. But maybe it's too late now that all the party, even Royal, and even the "evil Sarkozy" speak with leftist tones...

Hamon and Aubry may agree on the paper. But it's not their interest.
I think Aubry initially wanted to be in the center of the party: Hamon-Emmanuelli-Mťlenchon, Cambadťlis (left strauss-kahnian) and Fabius at her left, Royal-Collomb-Valls, Hollande, Moscovici (right strauss-kahnian) and DelanoŽ (with former jospinists and rocardians) at her right.
We must remember that, few months ago, DelanoŽ write the L-word ("libťral", in the European sense: Tocqueville in politics, Adam Smith in economics; but of course, DelanoŽ was referring only to the former).
So, Aubry, who began to campaign late, was forced to make an alliance with Fabius and some strauss-kahnians because it was what was left.... Montebourg rallied her after (please note that Montebourg is completely outsided now: he has changed too many times.... "New Socialist Party" with the left wing, Royal, then Aubry and the so-called "reconstructeurs".... And Montebourg is too ideological: during a recent meeting of the Association des Dťpartements de France -he's now president of the Conseil gťnťral de SaŰne-et-Loire- many presidents from other departments, from any aisle of the political spectrum, were irritated because he talks about Sarkozy and national politics and not about local affairs and lobbying in favor of "le dťpartement" as a threatened institution).

Anyway, Aubry without Fabius wouldn't have made a big score. So, now, she's a bit too far on the left and so, Hamon, who is young, has no interest to rescue her.

Moreover, I feel (but that's just a feeling) that Hamon and Razzye Hammadi (another former leader of the MJS,  the leftist Mouvement des Jeunes Socialistes, the PS's youth vehicle) would be more prepared to make a tactical and short-term alliance with Royal than with Aubry, just to reinforce themselves inside the party and, later, become the left wing in a 2-wings party.
During the presidential campaign, Hamon, Hammadi and the MJS were strong supporters of Royal. Between them and "Dťsirs d'avenir", a movement of Royal's fans, there was a little war to prove who is the more loyal and active....

An anti-Royal majority with Hamon as the least opposed candidate for the first secretariate is quite likely: a fabiusian, like Bartolone, wouldn't be agreed on by DelanoŽ and former jospinists; DelanoŽ would reject Aubry and Aubry would reject DelanoŽ; Michel Sapin is unknown and weak and too "hollandish" in his manners; Cambadťlis is unknown and would be regarded, inside the PS as holding the party temporarily just to give it to Strauss-Kahn in 2011, outside the PS as a former Trotskyite apparatchik.

So Hamon could be a minimal consensus in an anti-Royal majority (from which Hollande and Moscovici would have departed).

Sarkozy 2012 !

NB: sure, I'm on the right, but I'm first of all a political junkie and what is happening inside the PS is wonderfully exciting, ONLY from this point of view.... For France, it's not very good as a weak PS would mean a strong far-left and/or an exuberant Bayrou, who may be even more an EGO than Sarkozy, Royal, DelanoŽ and Villepin.

Wait a minute. No, not Villepin.
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« Reply #33 on: November 07, 2008, 05:30:39 PM »

You're right: feud is the word of the day....

Mťlenchon and Marc Dolez (a deputy from the Nord department) want to emulate Die Linke. But maybe it's too late now that all the party, even Royal, and even the "evil Sarkozy" speak with leftist tones...

Lol. Have fun with that, guys.

Still be interesting if their idea comes about and the effect it has, standing from a political junkie's PoV.

Hamon and Aubry may agree on the paper. But it's not their interest.
I think Aubry initially wanted to be in the center of the party: Hamon-Emmanuelli-Mťlenchon, Cambadťlis (left strauss-kahnian) and Fabius at her left, Royal-Collomb-Valls, Hollande, Moscovici (right strauss-kahnian) and DelanoŽ (with former jospinists and rocardians) at her right.

She talked a bit about the 35 heures and all that, and that's more a leftie thing to say.

We must remember that, few months ago, DelanoŽ write the L-word ("libťral", in the European sense: Tocqueville in politics, Adam Smith in economics; but of course, DelanoŽ was referring only to the former).

The L-word in the PS is like the F-word.

So, Aubry, who began to campaign late, was forced to make an alliance with Fabius and some strauss-kahnians because it was what was left.... Montebourg rallied her after (please note that Montebourg is completely outsided now: he has changed too many times.... "New Socialist Party" with the left wing, Royal, then Aubry and the so-called "reconstructeurs".... And Montebourg is too ideological: during a recent meeting of the Association des Dťpartements de France -he's now president of the Conseil gťnťral de SaŰne-et-Loire- many presidents from other departments, from any aisle of the political spectrum, were irritated because he talks about Sarkozy and national politics and not about local affairs and lobbying in favor of "le dťpartement" as a threatened institution).

Arnaud Montebourg is a disgusting piece of human trash, a worthless hack, an opportunistic scumbag, and stupid hypocrite. One would see that I hate him.

But ever since Ayrault trounced him in a PS primary for SRC group chairman and the passage of the institutional reform (he was at the head of the PS crusade against it), I haven't seen him yell on the nightly news anymore and seems to have died off. Good riddance, scumbag.

Moreover, I feel (but that's just a feeling) that Hamon and Razzye Hammadi (another former leader of the MJS,  the leftist Mouvement des Jeunes Socialistes, the PS's youth vehicle) would be more prepared to make a tactical and short-term alliance with Royal than with Aubry, just to reinforce themselves inside the party and, later, become the left wing in a 2-wings party.
During the presidential campaign, Hamon, Hammadi and the MJS were strong supporters of Royal. Between them and "Dťsirs d'avenir", a movement of Royal's fans, there was a little war to prove who is the more loyal and active....

The MJS is quite leftie indeed and disturbed.

An anti-Royal majority with Hamon as the least opposed candidate for the first secretariate is quite likely: a fabiusian, like Bartolone, wouldn't be agreed on by DelanoŽ and former jospinists; DelanoŽ would reject Aubry and Aubry would reject DelanoŽ; Michel Sapin is unknown and weak and too "hollandish" in his manners; Cambadťlis is unknown and would be regarded, inside the PS as holding the party temporarily just to give it to Strauss-Kahn in 2011, outside the PS as a former Trotskyite apparatchik.

So Hamon could be a minimal consensus in an anti-Royal majority (from which Hollande and Moscovici would have departed).

I think Hamon would be too left-wing for the party moderates and right-wingers to agree on him. They'd best go with a dark horse, though I can't really come up with one right now.

Sarkozy 2012 !

NB: sure, I'm on the right, but I'm first of all a political junkie and what is happening inside the PS is wonderfully exciting, ONLY from this point of view.... For France, it's not very good as a weak PS would mean a strong far-left and/or an exuberant Bayrou, who may be even more an EGO than Sarkozy, Royal, DelanoŽ and Villepin.

Wait a minute. No, not Villepin.

The MoDem is still at 7-8 in polls (including a European elections poll), and that seems to be its ceiling. It sure didn't break through in any recent elections and unlikely to do so in 2009. The NPA/LCR is the thing to watch IMO. Besancenot is still in the top 5-10 or so most popular pols in France right now, and many rate him as one of the most trustworthy opponents of the UMP/Sarkozy. I heard about a poll that places him at 10-12 percent in a 2007 presidential re-run. Don't remember the details.

Of course, Bayrou wins the Egomaniac Award hands-down. No question about that.
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« Reply #34 on: November 07, 2008, 06:59:43 PM »

Final results won't be published until Monday, it seems.

Royal is at 29,1.
DelanoŽ 24,9.
Aubry 24,4.
Hamon 18,7.

But there is a spread of about 700 votes between DelanoŽ and Aubry. And Guadeloupe hasn't published any result whereas it may count about 1000 votes.

Aubry regards results in La Rťunion as "surprising": she's in the tens, Royal has 625 and DelanoŽ more than a thousand....

A symbolic battle between Aubry and DelanoŽ for the second place....

What is weird with the PS is that, even if there is an alliance between some motions before the national congress, party members will vote again, after the congress, to choose the first secretary in a direct election.
So, it's very possible that an alliance of 2 or 3 motions, with just over 50% of votes, pick a candidate who is defeated days later by another candidate who comes from a motion which is in the minority....

The UMP is not in a very shiny state these days and tensions are great between Devedjian, Bertrand, Hortefeux et alii, but the PS seems so shambolic that the UMP appears as a calm sea....
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« Reply #35 on: November 07, 2008, 07:02:28 PM »

Royal was on the news this evening. She's still on drugs, it seems.
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« Reply #36 on: November 08, 2008, 03:07:37 PM »

New party?

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« Reply #37 on: November 10, 2008, 06:30:51 AM »

Final results won't be published until....the congress itself, which will "validate" the results !

Another issue to fight on.... Another problem not solved before the congress.... like the choice of the first secretary ?

Remember that even if some motions agree on a name before or even during the congress, the first secretary remains to be elected by party members on Nov.20th, in another election day....

Sarkozy's campaign slogan and Socialists' political behaviour are exactly the same: "Ensemble, tout devient possible"....
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« Reply #38 on: November 10, 2008, 07:44:39 AM »

Final results won't be published until....the congress itself, which will "validate" the results !

Assholes.
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« Reply #39 on: November 11, 2008, 07:36:43 AM »

Royal has announced her candidacy.
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« Reply #40 on: November 11, 2008, 02:26:38 PM »

Somebody close to her said she may be a candidate.... so, she'll be if there isn't outrageous reactions until tomorrow night.

BUT a war inside the PS is now quite sure.
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« Reply #41 on: November 11, 2008, 02:49:46 PM »

Somebody close to her said she may be a candidate.... so, she'll be if there isn't outrageous reactions until tomorrow night.

BUT a war inside the PS is now quite sure.

Wonderful. I've been waiting for something like this. The left socialists could make things interesting.
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« Reply #42 on: November 11, 2008, 03:44:03 PM »

Apparently she has opened up to talking to her sworn enemies. Likely just a bunch of bullcrap if you ask me.
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« Reply #43 on: November 11, 2008, 04:40:45 PM »

What a surprise.... Here are the results from about 99% of ballots:

http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/vote-motions.pdf

I haven't enough time yet to make maps or to analyze these, but Hashemite...
One interesting thing to do would be to compare these results with the socialist primary of late 2006, but also with internal elections in 1994 and 1995, especially the Fabius motion and the "no" vote (in socialist internal elction) on the European referendum.

An important thing is to see if Aubry, today is just Fabius plus Nord-Pas-de-Calais plus a little bit else, or if she's a real base apart from that.

I still think she has an opportunity to win beacause DelanoŽ is now too weak and she can be the anti-Royal solution.
Still she hasn't a strong base inside the party, but nobody underlines it.
Fabius and DSK are not very careful to let her come to the front, if they really have presidential plans of course.
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« Reply #44 on: November 11, 2008, 05:15:07 PM »

Making a map right now.
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« Reply #45 on: November 11, 2008, 05:56:39 PM »

Wonderful !

It will be interesting to compare it to this one, from PGSable, in the gallery:



Sure, Fabius in blue, it's clear.
Hollande in red, more difficult, beacuse Royal, DelanoŽ and Aubry are taking different regions now.
The "Nouveau PS", then in green, is now torn apart between Hamon, Royal (Dray and Peillon) and Aubry (Montebourg).
And in the Essonne department, Dray is for Royal but Mťlenchon was for Hamon....!

And maybe, it would be fine to compare it to a map with the "no" and "yes" votes in PS internal ballot in 2004, on the EU referendum. Have you one ?
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« Reply #46 on: November 11, 2008, 06:02:30 PM »
« Edited: November 11, 2008, 06:06:21 PM by PGSable »

Royal's base is the south and Poitou Charentes, as expected.
Aubry's base is Fabius's from 2006, plus Nord Pas-de-Calais.
Delanoë's base is Strauss-Kahn's, plus the northwest and the area around Corrèze (Ayrault and Hollande's areas). He severely underperformed in Ile de France.
Hamon did very well in the diagonale du vide; every department he won was there, except for Manche.
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« Reply #47 on: November 11, 2008, 06:18:01 PM »
« Edited: November 12, 2008, 04:18:37 PM by Kentoc'h mervel eget saotr »



Corrected the Aube. And Vosges.
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« Reply #48 on: November 11, 2008, 07:10:19 PM »

And now for the first of the maps by motion (won't be doing the 2 fringe ones).



Maps to compare with (2005)





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« Reply #49 on: November 12, 2008, 04:18:58 PM »

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