French Socialist Party leadership race, 2008
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 02, 2021, 08:52:38 PM

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, afleitch, Hash)
  French Socialist Party leadership race, 2008
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 7
Author Topic: French Socialist Party leadership race, 2008  (Read 25123 times)
Hash
Hashemite
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,078
Colombia


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 23, 2008, 05:11:06 PM »

The deadline for motions was today, so I guess it's time to start this sucker.

The leadership race follows a very complex process that involves a lot of steps and meetings and so forth.

Hierarchy
  • 161,404 militants (members)
  • about 4,000 sections (uniting militants in cities, factory, neighborhood. Atleast 5 members with an elected leader).
  • 102 Federations (One for each department and one for French citizens abroad. Led by an elected first secretary). A lot of the sections are led by influential party bosses (Guerini comes to mind in the very powerful Bouches-du-Rhone federation).
  • 306 councillors in the National Council (the party's Parliament that meets 4 times a year. Composed of 102 federal first secretaries and 204 members designated during party congresses)
  • Bureau etc. (57 members in the bureau, between 20-30 in the secretariat) are designated by the Nat. Council on the advice of the first secretary
  • First Secretary elected by militants in the sections.

Dates
  • September 23, 2008: Limit date for deposing motions to the National Council.
  • November 6-9, 2008: Sections vote on motions. The federal congresses then designate delegates to go to the Congress, based proportionally on the motions results.
  • November 14-16, 2008: Congress in Reims. In 2005, there were 614 delegates and members by right (council and bureau members, MNAs, Senators. 849 in 2005).
  • November 20-21, 2008: Leadership election by militants in sections.
  • November 22, 2008: Bureau and Secretariat designated by the National Council on the advice of the leader.

Motions
There are six motions (5 in 2005)
  • Royal's motion (led by Gerard Collomb, Mayor of Lyon)
  • Delanoe's motion
  • Aubry's motion
  • Hamon's motion
  • Utopia motion (which got 1.02% in 2005)
  • a miscellaneous "ecologist pole"

Likely candidates
  • SťgolŤne Royal, President of Poitou-Charentes
  • Bertrand DelanoŽ, Mayor of Paris
  • BenoÓt Hamon, MEP
  • Martine Aubry, Mayor of Paris

Old Congress results since Epinay '71: http://www.france-politique.fr/congres-ps.htm
Logged
Hash
Hashemite
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,078
Colombia


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2008, 05:13:27 PM »

CSA poll on PS leaners/members

Delanoe 30%
Royal 29%
Aubry 18%
Moscovici 6%
Valls 5%
Dray 4%
Logged
Robespierre's Jaw
Senator Conor Flynn
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,129
Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -8.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2008, 05:33:57 PM »

How has Mayor Delanoe managed to earn the title of frontrunner in this race for the Socialist leadership? Has it got anything to do with Segolene Royal's inabilities to receive much needed support from the party's heavyweights or something completely different? Should be an interesting nonetheless, though I'm hoping for a Mayor Delanoe victory.
Logged
PGSable
Rookie
**
Posts: 211
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 24, 2008, 03:13:29 PM »

For reference, here is the map of the 2005 race (based on the spreadsheet at Hashemite's link):



53.63% FranÁois Hollande
23.54% New Socialist Party (Julien Dray, BenoÓt Hamon, Arnaud Montebourg, and Vincent Peillon)
21.17% Laurent Fabius
1.02% Utopia (Franck Pupunat)
0.64% Jean-Marie Bockel
Logged
Hash
Hashemite
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,078
Colombia


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 24, 2008, 04:41:02 PM »

There are more maps of 2005 on my site. I think I posted some of them here too on the defunct French elections maps thread.

http://www.freewebs.com/franceelgeo/2005.htm
Logged
PGSable
Rookie
**
Posts: 211
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 24, 2008, 04:59:50 PM »

There are more maps of 2005 on my site. I think I posted some of them here too on the defunct French elections maps thread.

http://www.freewebs.com/franceelgeo/2005.htm

Thanks for the maps. I do remember you posting maps for the 2006 primary, but I never saw the 2005 maps.
Logged
Хahar 🤔
Xahar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 39,866
Bangladesh


Political Matrix
E: -6.77, S: 0.61

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 25, 2008, 10:28:31 PM »

Lang's not running?

All the other prominent Socialists are useless hacks.
Logged
Hash
Hashemite
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,078
Colombia


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 26, 2008, 06:44:31 AM »

Lang's not running?

All the other prominent Socialists are useless hacks.

No. After what he did at the Congress, 95% of the party hates him as a traitor, and Lang is a useless opportunist. He'll endorse the winner, even if in the past he said that that person was a piece of shit. (In 2006, he endorsed Royal despite almost calling her a bitch in a book).

BTW, the text of the 6 motions are here: http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2008/09/25/les-motions-du-ps_1099577_823448.html.

I'm sad Moscovici or Valls didn't run in the end.
Logged
PGSable
Rookie
**
Posts: 211
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 26, 2008, 10:24:13 PM »

DelanoŽ leads in endorsements.

Deputies, senators, and eurodeputies: DelanoŽ 101, Aubry 94, Royal 48, Hamon 17, Ecologists 5
Regional presidents: Aubry 8, DelanoŽ 5, Royal 2
Mayors of cities with over 100 000 inhabitants: DelanoŽ 17, Aubry 5, Royal 5
Section mayors of Paris, Marseille, and Lyon: DelanoŽ 9, Aubry 2, Royal 2
Departmental presidents: DelanoŽ 17, Aubry 14, Royal 7, Ecologists 1
Federation leaders: DelanoŽ 33, Royal 28, Aubry 26, Hamon 3

Total: DelanoŽ 182, Aubry 149, Royal 92, Hamon 20, Ecologists 6

Lionel Jospin supports DelanoŽ, and Edith Cresson supports Royal.
Logged
Хahar 🤔
Xahar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 39,866
Bangladesh


Political Matrix
E: -6.77, S: 0.61

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 26, 2008, 11:18:41 PM »

Lang's not running?

All the other prominent Socialists are useless hacks.

No. After what he did at the Congress, 95% of the party hates him as a traitor, and Lang is a useless opportunist. He'll endorse the winner, even if in the past he said that that person was a piece of shit. (In 2006, he endorsed Royal despite almost calling her a bitch in a book).

BTW, the text of the 6 motions are here: http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2008/09/25/les-motions-du-ps_1099577_823448.html.

I'm sad Moscovici or Valls didn't run in the end.

At least he'll do that much, eh?

Reminds me why I support the PCF.
Logged
Hash
Hashemite
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,078
Colombia


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 27, 2008, 05:57:54 AM »

Federation leaders: DelanoŽ 33, Royal 28, Aubry 26, Hamon 3

This be the most important. Since these people have power and some rule their federations like party machines.
Logged
Hash
Hashemite
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,078
Colombia


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 29, 2008, 07:05:29 AM »

Julien Dray says he's not ruling out a run for First Secretary, despite endorsing Royal's motion.

BTW, I think she's on drugs.
Logged
big bad fab
filliatre
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,346
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2008, 06:15:20 AM »

Jack Lang has endorsed Aubry....
Michel Rocard has endorsed DelanoŽ.

And Sarkozy has secretly endorsed Royal, as he would easily beat her in a re-run, especially since her Saturday "show", with new haircut, jeans, many gestures and silly tone....!

I agree: Valls and Moscovici are the most realistic socialists.

I don't yet understand why Jean-Louis Bianco is so close to Royal: he is a kind, moderate, competent, mentally sane man.
Logged
Hash
Hashemite
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,078
Colombia


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 03, 2008, 04:05:22 PM »

IFOP poll for First Secretary.

Delanoë 44%
Aubry 22%
Royal 18%
Hamon 6%

lol.
Logged
PGSable
Rookie
**
Posts: 211
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 03, 2008, 04:50:36 PM »

IFOP poll for First Secretary.

DelanoŽ 44%
Aubry 22%
Royal 18%
Hamon 6%

lol.

That's among members of all parties. Among "Socialist sympathizers," the result is tighter, though still a large lead for DelanoŽ:

DelanoŽ 43%
Aubry 28%
Royal 24%
Hamon 2%

The poll was taken last weekend, September 25-26.
Logged
big bad fab
filliatre
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,346
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 03, 2008, 05:17:46 PM »

Aubry will be a real danger for DelanoŽ, if not today, in some months, even after DelanoŽ likely victory.

She has succeeded in erasing her "35 hours-per-week" policy from memories. And she is hiding the fact that her base is now mainly Fabius supporters.

And she is clever to try to win the party rather by the left. DelanoŽ said he was liberal and socialist beacause, at the time, Royal was a danger for him: that's not very clever now.

Aubry will be more moderate in the future, with the presidential election of 2012 growing on the agenda.
And her visit to Strauss-Kahn was a mystery: did he say to her he wouldn't be candidate ? Or did he push her to weaken DelanoŽ and play the role of the Saviour in 2011-2012 ?

I think French medias would be glad to have a "serious" woman: this one is electable !
So, Aubry will be dangerous for DelanoŽ, for DSK and finally for Sarkozy.
Logged
Hash
Hashemite
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,078
Colombia


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 03, 2008, 05:24:01 PM »

IFOP poll for First Secretary.

DelanoŽ 44%
Aubry 22%
Royal 18%
Hamon 6%

lol.

That's among members of all parties. Among "Socialist sympathizers," the result is tighter, though still a large lead for DelanoŽ:

DelanoŽ 43%
Aubry 28%
Royal 24%
Hamon 2%

The poll was taken last weekend, September 25-26.

Ah. This is still an awful result for Royal. Apparently her event for mentally challenged people didn't work out.
Logged
big bad fab
filliatre
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,346
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 13, 2008, 05:15:30 PM »

Aubry is now officially a candidate for "le poste de premiŤre secrťtaire".

She seems to have a sort of momentum inside the Socialist Party.

DelanoŽ seems to be supported by the old guard (Hollande and former Jospin's friends).

Aubry (though supported by the other old guard, the Fabius guard....) is sitting more in the left side of the party and, with world financial crisis, she appears to gain a bit.
Logged
PGSable
Rookie
**
Posts: 211
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 14, 2008, 06:14:31 PM »

New Ifop poll of 579 "Socialist sympathizers" (October 2-3):

DelanoŽ 41% (-2)
Royal 30% (+6)
Aubry 23% (-5)
Hamon 1% (-1)

Ifop approval ratings, 957 adults, regardless of political affiliation (October 2-3):
DelanoŽ 73% (+1)
Royal 38% (-5)

DelanoŽ currently has the highest approval ratings in France; he is tied with Kouchner (up three points) and Strauss-Kahn (up seven points). Royal is below Lang (67%, -3) Besancenot (56%, -5) Fillon (54%, -2) and Sarkozy (44%, +1).
Logged
PGSable
Rookie
**
Posts: 211
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: November 06, 2008, 07:21:27 PM »

Results so far, with 35 of 102 federations having voted:

Royal 31%
Delanoë 26%
Aubry 20%
Hamon 20%

Turnout is at about 60%. Hamon is doing surprisingly well.

Quote from: Restricted
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Turnout was at about 60%.

The remaining 67 federations will vote tomorrow (Friday) and Saturday.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 64,378
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: November 06, 2008, 07:25:22 PM »

Who on Earth is Hamon?
Logged
PGSable
Rookie
**
Posts: 211
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: November 06, 2008, 07:55:06 PM »

He's a MEP from the left wing of the Socialist Party.
Logged
Hash
Hashemite
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,078
Colombia


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: November 06, 2008, 08:22:07 PM »

This totally flew over me.

The crazy lady is doing surprisingly well, but Hamon is the big surprise here.

Anybody know which feds voted today?


A quasi-Trot.
Logged
PGSable
Rookie
**
Posts: 211
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: November 06, 2008, 08:49:03 PM »


I have no idea. Ouest-France has the results for departments in the west.

Basse Normandie: Hamon leads in Calvados and Manche; Royal leaders in Orne.

Bretagne: DelanoŽ leads in all four departments

Pays de la Loire: DelanoŽ leads in Loire-Atlantique, Maine-et-Loire, and Sarthe; Royal leads in Mayenne and Vendťe
Logged
Hash
Hashemite
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,078
Colombia


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: November 06, 2008, 08:52:18 PM »

The Le Drian endorsement seemed to have done wonders in Bretagne for Delanoe.

Impressive results for the eco-socialists in Ille-et-Vilaine, 12%. The departmental president endorsed them, though.

Basse Normandie: Hamon leads in Manche

He won all three Socialists in the Manche!
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 7  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.06 seconds with 12 queries.