Obama raised 66 Mio. $ last month

[J. J.]

You just now read that?  I've known about that 20 million for ages but didn't figure it was relevant.

It's been in my linked article for days in this thread.  I don't consider a joint committee to be a transfer from the McCain campaign to the RNC, that seems like a big stretch of the truth.

But even if you do include it, it is still is under the 40-60% of 114 million cited.

I'm saying the numbers don't add up, according to the article.  $76 million COH vs. $110 million; another $20 that might or might be counted in either total.  I was looking at the $76 to $110 million totals for the difference.

[Lunar]

It adds up fine because of the 20 million in the joint committee, JJ.

94+20=114 (the exact amount)

Even if you count that 20 as part of the McCain-to-RNC transfer, which I think is unfair, it's still not 40-60%.

Sigh.

[Tender Branson]

The final numbers for August:

Obama revenues: 67.5 Mio. $
DNC revenues: 39.4 Mio. $

McCain revenues: 53.3 Mio. $
RNC revenues: 23.3 Mio. $

...

Obama expenditures: 56.0 Mio. $
DNC expenditures: 29.4 Mio. $

McCain expenditures: 47.7 Mio. $
RNC expenditures: 22.0 Mio. $

...

Obama cash-on-hand: 77.4 Mio. $
DNC cash-on-hand: 17.7 Mio. $

McCain cash-on-hand: 27.0 Mio. $
RNC cash-on-hand: 76.5 Mio. $

...

For September, I expect that the RNC will raise roughly 45 Mio. $, compared with about 30 Mio. $ for the DNC. Obama will raise about 70 Mio. $ again.

I expect spending to pick up: 60 Mio. for Obama and about 30 Mio. for the DNC, 40 Mio. for McCain and about 40 Mio. for the RNC.

The cash on hand at the end of September would then be:

Obama: 87 Mio. $
DNC cash-on-hand: 18 Mio. $

McCain cash-on-hand: 44 Mio. $ (84 federal funds - 40 spent)
RNC cash-on-hand: 109 Mio. $ (77+27+45-40)

...

Considering that Obama+DNC will raise another 100 Mio. in October vs. about 40-50 Mio. for the RNC, bot campaigns should be more or less even financially by early November.

[J. J.]

It adds up fine because of the 20 million in the joint committee, JJ.

94+20=114 (the exact amount)

Even if you count that 20 as part of the McCain-to-RNC transfer, which I think is unfair, it's still not 40-60%.

Sigh.

It wasn't $18 Million, but $27 Million, COH. There would have been some funds from the first days of September and possibly some expenditures.

So, on August 31,

McCain $27 M + RNC $76.5 M = $103.5 M

Obama $77.4 M + DNC $17.7 M = $94.8 M

We also know that will get $84.1 M in September in matching funds.

So for September to match:

Obama needs:  ($92.8 M + McCain net fund raising in September + RNC fund raising in September) - DNC raising in September.

My guess for McCain net for September is $5-$8 M.

I would say that the Obama DNC has to out raise RNC by about $44 M, per month (there are a few days in November) to hit parity.  They didn't even come close in August ($30 M).  They could do it, or they could get close enough, but this is Obama's gamble.

There is also a $20 M out there for McCain in those joint committees that isn't in the mix.

[Lunar]

Eh, my understanding was that he spent 40 million in August, meaning that the 20 million counted to get to my number of 60 million.  I think that joint-fundraising committee counted as money that McCain himself raised, as a way to get people to donate 28.5k for something that sounds more McCainey but have it be under control of the RNC.  Still wasn't 40-60%, but I made one bad assumption that that money was always considered to be the RNC's by the media.

[J. J.]

Eh, my understanding was that he spent 40 million in August, meaning that the 20 million counted to get to my number of 60 million.  I think that joint-fundraising committee counted as money that McCain himself raised, as a way to get people to donate 28.5k for something that sounds more McCainey but have it be under control of the RNC.  Still wasn't 40-60%, but I made one bad assumption that that money was always considered to be the RNC's by the media.

McCain $27 M COH as of 8/31/08.  More in all probability since the RNC number after the transferre that has been bandied is $110 M.  RNC had $76 M.  Just the COH on 8/31 comes to 35%.  How much more is unknown at this point.

The $28 K, didn't come into play until after he got the matching funds.

Basically, even conservatively, Obama + DNC has to raise $44 M above the RNC per month, to break even at the end.  The current target for Obama/DNC is RNC/McCain + $44 M (for September).

Last month, raise $30 M above the RNC/McCain numbers, a gap of about $14 M from the September target.  I expect that because the DNC was entirely in August, there was a uptick in donations.  I suspect the same thing for the GOP in September, so I don't expect to see Obama close that gap; it might get larger.

In short, in terms of money, Obama gambled.  It might not pay off, in terms of money.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why can't you just admit you are factually wrong?

You realize that requesting this is like you getting sick of the color of your house so you yell at the house demanding it change its color?

[J. J.]

Why can't you just admit you are factually wrong?

You realize that requesting this is like you getting sick of the color of your house so you yell at the house demanding it change its color?

Except I was correct.  We have the results.  Pity the Kool Aid drinkers don't understand that. 

BTW: My figures are quite conservative in terms of the amount Obama needs.

[Lunar]

No you weren't,  That wasn't somewhere in between 40-60%.  Will you at least admit you were wrong on that number?

[J. J.]

No you weren't,  That wasn't somewhere in between 40-60%.  Will you at least admit you were wrong on that number?

The total before the transfer was $76 M.  After the transfer, it was $110 M, if the reports can be believed.  110 - 76 = 34.  Do you understand the math so far Lunar>

34 is what percentage of 76?  44.745 do you understand that Lunar?

Basically, Obama may have lost the money battle.

[Lunar]

No you weren't,  That wasn't somewhere in between 40-60%.  Will you at least admit you were wrong on that number?

The total before the transfer was $76 M.  After the transfer, it was $110 M, if the reports can be believed.  110 - 76 = 34.  Do you understand the math so far Lunar>

34 is what percentage of 76?  44.745 do you understand that Lunar?

Sigh.

That's not how you do basic math JJ.

If you're trying to figure out what percentage of a total was acquired by a recent transfer, you divide the transfer over the new total, not the old total.  So you divide by 114 million.   60% of that is 68.4 million.  40% is 45.6 million.   

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The relevant number is 34/110 (30.9%), not 34/76. J. J. must've failed 7th grade math.

[Verily]

The relevant number is 34/110 (30.9%), not 34/76. J. J. must've failed 7th grade math.

But, but Mensa...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

J. J. = http://redwing.hutman.net/~mreed/warriorshtm/ferouscranus.htm

[Lunar]

Non-factual claims that JJ can't admit were wrong:

The thing is the Republicans have more donors who can afford 28.5k (or 57k if including their spouse) than the Democrats.  Soros can trump most Republican donors, but he can only give 28.5k to the DNC.  Single donors cannot be representative because of finance rules.

If you want to throw in MoveOn.org, I don't know how that shifts the numbers.

The main reason is because something between 40%-60% was transferred in from the McCain Campaign.

Wrong by his own numbers, unless he meant to say "40%-60% of their pre-transfer total" which doesn't make sense given the context or basic common-sense (why would anyone care about that).

The RNC is going to have to spend some money on House and Senate races though.

IIRC, they have separate funding.

Obama $77 Million plus $18 Million from the DNC.  $95 Million

McCain:  $84 Million federal in Sept., COH of $110 Million for the RNC.  Then there also McCain's COH, at least $47 million, it looks like.  That get's transferred to the RNC, the transfer didn't occur until after Sept 1.  About $240 Million.  I think McCain COH is low.

Just to make up the gap, Obama has to raise about $63 million per month.  That assumes that the RNC raises nothing.  My guess is that the RNC will raise $40-$60 million per month.  Just to get parity, Obama has to raise about $100 million per month, maybe a bit more.

The 240 million number is just absurd.

[J. J.]

J. J. = http://redwing.hutman.net/~mreed/warriorshtm/ferouscranus.htm

Ah, FEC reports are out, and McCain had more than $36 M, COH on 8/31/08.  Sorry but your Lunar's drivel doesn't match the facts, just the return of Democratic fuzzy math.

[Lunar]

Read the posts above and respond to the math, BRTD's post isn't relevant to my drivel and fuzzy math.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Nor is J. J.'s response at all relevant to the post. Further proving the point really.

[J. J.]

Nor is J. J.'s response at all relevant to the post. Further proving the point really.

First, the numbers are wrong.  McCain had in access of $36 million on 8/31.

Now, I should have explained that a bit more clearly, the McCain contribution turns out to be about 47% of the that the RNC had previously.

[Lunar]

Nor is J. J.'s response at all relevant to the post. Further proving the point really.

First, the numbers are wrong.  McCain had in access of $36 million on 8/31.

Now, I should have explained that a bit more clearly, the McCain contribution turns out to be about 47% of the that the RNC had previously.

But that's not what you said initially!  You're just changing your argument to fit the current numbers, which is highly shady.  See my post above where I posted your two quotations.

The main reason is because something between 40%-60% was transferred in from the McCain Campaign.

[Lunar]

Here are the two quotes you have to defend.  I'm not taking your bait on the other thread, because arguing with you is pointless if you can't admit these two statements were wrong.  At the very least, you perhaps made a poor choice of words?


Non-factual claims that JJ can't admit were wrong:

The thing is the Republicans have more donors who can afford 28.5k (or 57k if including their spouse) than the Democrats.  Soros can trump most Republican donors, but he can only give 28.5k to the DNC.  Single donors cannot be representative because of finance rules.

If you want to throw in MoveOn.org, I don't know how that shifts the numbers.

The main reason is because something between 40%-60% was transferred in from the McCain Campaign.

Wrong by his own numbers, unless he meant to say "40%-60% of their pre-transfer total" which doesn't make sense given the context or basic common-sense (why would anyone care about that).  Otherwise he is failing seventh grade math and doesn't realize that for the numbers to make any sense, given what he said and the conversation at hand (which was "Why does the RNC have 144 million dollars"), one has to divide by 114 and not 76.

The RNC is going to have to spend some money on House and Senate races though.

IIRC, they have separate funding.

Obama $77 Million plus $18 Million from the DNC.  $95 Million

McCain:  $84 Million federal in Sept., COH of $110 Million for the RNC.  Then there also McCain's COH, at least $47 million, it looks like.  That get's transferred to the RNC, the transfer didn't occur until after Sept 1.  About $240 Million.  I think McCain COH is low.

Just to make up the gap, Obama has to raise about $63 million per month.  That assumes that the RNC raises nothing.  My guess is that the RNC will raise $40-$60 million per month.  Just to get parity, Obama has to raise about $100 million per month, maybe a bit more.

The 240 million number is just absurd.

[J. J.]

Here are the two quotes you have to defend.  I'm not taking your bait on the other thread, because arguing with you is pointless if you can't admit these two statements were wrong.  At the very least, you perhaps made a poor choice of words?


Non-factual claims that JJ can't admit were wrong:

The thing is the Republicans have more donors who can afford 28.5k (or 57k if including their spouse) than the Democrats.  Soros can trump most Republican donors, but he can only give 28.5k to the DNC.  Single donors cannot be representative because of finance rules.

If you want to throw in MoveOn.org, I don't know how that shifts the numbers.

The main reason is because something between 40%-60% was transferred in from the McCain Campaign.

Wrong by his own numbers, unless he meant to say "40%-60% of their pre-transfer total" which doesn't make sense given the context or basic common-sense (why would anyone care about that).  Otherwise he is failing seventh grade math and doesn't realize that for the numbers to make any sense, given what he said and the conversation at hand (which was "Why does the RNC have 144 million dollars"), one has to divide by 114 and not 76.

The RNC is going to have to spend some money on House and Senate races though.

IIRC, they have separate funding.

Obama $77 Million plus $18 Million from the DNC.  $95 Million

McCain:  $84 Million federal in Sept., COH of $110 Million for the RNC.  Then there also McCain's COH, at least $47 million, it looks like.  That get's transferred to the RNC, the transfer didn't occur until after Sept 1.  About $240 Million.  I think McCain COH is low.

Just to make up the gap, Obama has to raise about $63 million per month.  That assumes that the RNC raises nothing.  My guess is that the RNC will raise $40-$60 million per month.  Just to get parity, Obama has to raise about $100 million per month, maybe a bit more.

The 240 million number is just absurd.

I was overestimating them both, Obama Doesn't have $77 M COH, though the reports claimed he did.  It look now, with the numbers out, Obama/DNC will have to raise $100 M more than the RNC.

[Lunar]

So you admit you were slightly wrong on those two numbers?  Because angels will sing in heaven if this occurs!

It's cool on the 240 mill, I made my own mistake figuring out which side to throw that 20 million joint fundraising committee on (hence my inaccurate estimate of 18 million instead of 38 million for the transfer).

[J. J.]

So you admit you were slightly wrong on those two numbers?  Because angels will sing in heaven if this occurs!

It's cool on the 240 mill, I made my own mistake figuring out which side to throw that 20 million joint fundraising committee on (hence my inaccurate estimate of 18 million instead of 38 million for the transfer).

You mad a mistake, by about half in the McCain COH, and we still don't have the early September numbers in that.

[Lunar]

Will you admit your overestimation was "wrong?"  I fully admit I was wrong on some things (not the 40-60% and not the 240 million), so I'm not asking you do to anything I'm not doing.  I mean, 240 million was pretty significantly off. 


In exchange, I will respond to your September numbers theory.  If I respond now you'll ignore what I type and just respond to that