Obama raised 66 Mio. $ last month

[Lunar]

The thing is the Republicans have more donors who can afford 28.5k (or 57k if including their spouse) than the Democrats.  Soros can trump most Republican donors, but he can only give 28.5k to the DNC.  Single donors cannot be representative because of finance rules.

If you want to throw in MoveOn.org, I don't know how that shifts the numbers.

[J. J.]

The thing is the Republicans have more donors who can afford 28.5k (or 57k if including their spouse) than the Democrats.  Soros can trump most Republican donors, but he can only give 28.5k to the DNC.  Single donors cannot be representative because of finance rules.

If you want to throw in MoveOn.org, I don't know how that shifts the numbers.

The main reason is because something between 40%-60% was transferred in from the McCain Campaign.

[Lunar]

The thing is the Republicans have more donors who can afford 28.5k (or 57k if including their spouse) than the Democrats.  Soros can trump most Republican donors, but he can only give 28.5k to the DNC.  Single donors cannot be representative because of finance rules.

If you want to throw in MoveOn.org, I don't know how that shifts the numbers.

The main reason is because something between 40%-60% was transferred in from the McCain Campaign.

That's not true.  The fact  is that the RNC has more big-money donors than the DNC and that's not a bad thing.

For example, Palin just raised 1 million dollars for the RNC in Ohio (one day) and McCain just raised over five million in Florida (one day). 

The RNC had a lot of money already before McCain gave them what, 25 mill?  That's nothing considering their already 60-90 million dollar advantage over the DNC.

I'm not using this against you.  Obama has a fundraiser in Miami planned soon where they hope to raise 2-3 millions.  I mean, I'm suspicious of all of this money as a cynic, but I don't think it's a knock against McCain that he and the RNC are getting these figures.

[J. J.]

The thing is the Republicans have more donors who can afford 28.5k (or 57k if including their spouse) than the Democrats.  Soros can trump most Republican donors, but he can only give 28.5k to the DNC.  Single donors cannot be representative because of finance rules.

If you want to throw in MoveOn.org, I don't know how that shifts the numbers.

The main reason is because something between 40%-60% was transferred in from the McCain Campaign.

That's not true.  The fact  is that the RNC has more big-money donors than the DNC and that's not a bad thing.

For example, Palin just raised 1 million dollars for the RNC in Ohio (one day) and McCain just raised over five million in Florida (one day). 

The RNC had a lot of money already before McCain gave them what, 25 mill?  That's nothing considering their already 60-90 million dollar advantage over the DNC.

I'm not using this against you.  Obama has a fundraiser in Miami planned soon where they hope to raise 2-3 millions.  I mean, I'm suspicious of all of this money as a cynic, but I don't think it's a knock against McCain that he and the RNC are getting these figures.

At least $40 million was a transfer from McCain; he raised $45 million in the last month and had COH prior to that, all transferred to the RNC.  The RNC is a better fundraiser than the DNC, but a lot of the "new" balance was the McCain campaign fund transfer.  Where Palin and McCain are raising money, it goes into the RNC coffers.  Where Obama raises money, it goes into the Obama coffers.

[Lunar]

18 million, not 40 million.
link

So, 18/118= 15.8%.  So, not 40-60% and it's not the "main reason."

But it did help!  Remember that McCain was spending like crazy last month, including spending in Minnesota and North Carolina.

[Smid]

Why the hell does the RNC have so much more money than the DNC?

The RNC has a top-notch fundraising operation that has a lengthy list of uber-rich donors.

The DNC tries really hard.

Yeah, broke ass Soros gives only 100$ a month.

Soros is a disgusting hypocrite who lectures the Republicans, but who made his money screwing the poor in South East Asia.

[J. J.]

18 million, not 40 million.
link

So, 18/118= 15.8%.  So, not 40-60% and it's not the "main reason."

But it did help!  Remember that McCain was spending like crazy last month, including spending in Minnesota and North Carolina.

That was the end of August.  McCain raised more money in the brief interval before he transferred.  I'm reading too much variation to take the figures seriously.

[Lunar]

Do you have a source for this variation?   Where are you seeing this variation?

Because you seem to be arguing that there's a source out there that McCain raised over 50 million dollars (how much it would take him to get to 60%) in two days in September that contributes to this confusion.  I think we would have heard about that.

Your low number indicates that McCain raised almost 28 million in two days.  That would be impressive as well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Your low number indicates that McCain raised almost 28 million in two days.  That would be impressive as well.

Is "impressive" Californinglish for "disgusting" [qm]

[J. J.]

Do you have a source for this variation?   Where are you seeing this variation?

Because you seem to be arguing that there's a source out there that McCain raised over 50 million dollars (how much it would take him to get to 60%) in two days in September that contributes to this confusion.  I think we would have heard about that.

Your low number indicates that McCain raised almost 28 million in two days.  That would be impressive as well.

The one source I saw was that he raised $47 million and had COH going into the month.  That might exclude another $10 million.

[Lunar]

Do you have a source for this variation?   Where are you seeing this variation?

Because you seem to be arguing that there's a source out there that McCain raised over 50 million dollars (how much it would take him to get to 60%) in two days in September that contributes to this confusion.  I think we would have heard about that.

Your low number indicates that McCain raised almost 28 million in two days.  That would be impressive as well.

The one source I saw was that he raised $47 million and had COH going into the month.  That might exclude another $10 million.

source?


47 million is how much he raised in August, but that's not how much he transferred to the RNC.  It's not like he raised the money all on August 30th.   McCain spent the majority of that.

[J. J.]

He had $32.7 Million on the 7/31, with a debt of $2 million. 

http://herndon1.sdrdc.com/cgi-bin/cancomsrs/

He raised $47 M in August, plus some in September.  I question if he spend $50 million plus.  Those numbers don't add up.

[Lunar]

link doesn't work

[J. J.]

link doesn't work

Then go to FEC site, which was where I got it.  As of yesterday, they didn't the August report up.

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday, Obama raised 11 Mio. in Hollywood.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/17/obama-raises-11-million-in-hollywood/

[Lunar]

link doesn't work

Then go to FEC site, which was where I got it.  As of yesterday, they didn't the August report up.

Ok, I went there.

The numbers ad up fine.   You're just arguing that there's no way that McCain spent 2 million dollars a day last month, or about 60 million.  I don't see what's so unbelievable about that.  Obama spent 55 million last month.  Are you saying it's physically impossible for McCain to spend 5 million more than Obama right before he has to give all of his money away?

You have proven NO variation in the numbers for the Cash on Hand at the end of August or that the RNC got 40-60% of its current 114 million from McCain.

Why can't you just admit you are factually wrong?

[J. J.]

link doesn't work

Then go to FEC site, which was where I got it.  As of yesterday, they didn't the August report up.

Ok, I went there.

The numbers ad up fine.   You're just arguing that there's no way that McCain spent 2 million dollars a day last month, or about 60 million.  I don't see what's so unbelievable about that.  Obama spent 55 million last month.  Are you saying it's physically impossible for McCain to spend 5 million more than Obama right before he has to give all of his money away?

You have proven NO variation in the numbers for the Cash on Hand at the end of August or that the RNC got 40-60% of its current 114 million from McCain.

Why can't you just admit you are factually wrong?

Because the numbers don't seem to be adding up.  $47 million raised, plus $30 million net do not seem to equal $18 Million (given).  And possibly several million added in the first few days of September.  I cannot figure out what it was spent on.

[Lunar]

Did you read my post?  I told you, if McCain, like Obama, had spent 55 million dollars in the last month, he'd be only 5 million away from 18 million.  You have to SUBTRACT how much is spent over the month from your totals.

[Lunar]

Chronology:

JJ gives an absurd claim that the RNC got “40-60%” of it’s 114 million from the McCain campaign.

Lunar says no, that’s wrong, here’s a clear source that he transferred 18 million + whatever he could raise in two days in September.

JJ says well there’s a lot of variations in the numbers, so I don’t accept that sourced 18 million number. 

Lunar says there is no variation in the numbers.  Give me a source.  Note that there has never been any variation in the numbers posted in this thread.

JJ says I can’t find a source for my claims, but I’ll prove how much cash on hand McCain had last month (37 million).

Lunar points out that that 37 million number fits into the number scheme fine.  McCain would only needed to have spent about 9% more than Obama did in the month of August to reduce his total to 18 million, certainly feasible.  Thus that 37 number is irrelevant.

JJ repeats about the 37 million number and ignores Lunar’s post.

Lunar wonders if JJ actually stole that bumper sticker.  

[J. J.]

Chronology:

JJ gives an absurd claim that the RNC got “40-60%” of it’s 114 million from the McCain campaign.

Lunar says no, that’s wrong, here’s a clear source that he transferred 18 million + whatever he could raise in two days in September.

JJ says well there’s a lot of variations in the numbers, so I don’t accept that sourced 18 million number. 

Lunar says there is no variation in the numbers.  Give me a source.  Note that there has never been any variation in the numbers posted in this thread.

JJ says I can’t find a source for my claims, but I’ll prove how much cash on hand McCain had last month (37 million).

Lunar points out that that 37 million number fits into the number scheme fine.  McCain would only needed to have spent about 9% more than Obama did in the month of August to reduce his total to 18 million, certainly feasible.  Thus that 37 number is irrelevant.

JJ repeats about the 37 million number and ignores Lunar’s post.

Lunar wonders if JJ actually stole that bumper sticker.  

Let X equal the amount raised by McCain in early September.  Let Y be the amount of money spent between 8/1 and early September.

($30 M + $47M + X)  - Y = $18 M?  It sure doesn't look right.

[Lunar]

Chronology:

JJ gives an absurd claim that the RNC got “40-60%” of it’s 114 million from the McCain campaign.

Lunar says no, that’s wrong, here’s a clear source that he transferred 18 million + whatever he could raise in two days in September.

JJ says well there’s a lot of variations in the numbers, so I don’t accept that sourced 18 million number. 

Lunar says there is no variation in the numbers.  Give me a source.  Note that there has never been any variation in the numbers posted in this thread.

JJ says I can’t find a source for my claims, but I’ll prove how much cash on hand McCain had last month (37 million).

Lunar points out that that 37 million number fits into the number scheme fine.  McCain would only needed to have spent about 9% more than Obama did in the month of August to reduce his total to 18 million, certainly feasible.  Thus that 37 number is irrelevant.

JJ repeats about the 37 million number and ignores Lunar’s post.

Lunar wonders if JJ actually stole that bumper sticker.

Let X equal the amount raised by McCain in early September.  Let Y be the amount of money spent between 8/1 and early September.

($30 M + $47M + X)  - Y = $18 M?  It sure doesn't look right.

YES IT DOES

McCain would only need to spend 60 million + X.

Obama spent 55 million in August.

How does that not look right?


NOT TO MENTION THE OFFICIAL NUMBERS AGREE WITH ME and not with you.  You cite official numbers for other months in order to make unreasonable conjectures that the official numbers are inaccurate. 

You have proved no "variation in the numbers."  You have no sources for your argument.  There's no one in the media talking about how suspicious these official numbers are.  There's no way that you're right here, just admit it.

[J. J.]

Chronology:

JJ gives an absurd claim that the RNC got “40-60%” of it’s 114 million from the McCain campaign.

Lunar says no, that’s wrong, here’s a clear source that he transferred 18 million + whatever he could raise in two days in September.

JJ says well there’s a lot of variations in the numbers, so I don’t accept that sourced 18 million number. 

Lunar says there is no variation in the numbers.  Give me a source.  Note that there has never been any variation in the numbers posted in this thread.

JJ says I can’t find a source for my claims, but I’ll prove how much cash on hand McCain had last month (37 million).

Lunar points out that that 37 million number fits into the number scheme fine.  McCain would only needed to have spent about 9% more than Obama did in the month of August to reduce his total to 18 million, certainly feasible.  Thus that 37 number is irrelevant.

JJ repeats about the 37 million number and ignores Lunar’s post.

Lunar wonders if JJ actually stole that bumper sticker.

Let X equal the amount raised by McCain in early September.  Let Y be the amount of money spent between 8/1 and early September.

($30 M + $47M + X)  - Y = $18 M?  It sure doesn't look right.

YES IT DOES

McCain would only need to spend 60 million + X.

Obama spent 55 million in August.

How does that not look right?


NOT TO MENTION THE OFFICIAL NUMBERS AGREE WITH ME and not with you.  You cite official numbers for other months in order to make unreasonable conjectures that the official numbers are inaccurate. 

You have proved no "variation in the numbers."  You have no sources for your argument.  There's no one in the media talking about how suspicious these official numbers are.  There's no way that you're right here, just admit it.

So far, we don't have the "official numbers" because the FEC hasn't posted them.  Now we have McCain outspending Obama in August by $5+X?  On what?

[Lunar]

Yes we do have the numbers, they are sourced news agencies which post the campaign's claims.

Unless the McCain campaign is lying that is 18 million, but then they'd be caught..  Or I guess the news agencies might just have made that 18 million number up and the McCain camp didn't correct them?

We have McCain outspending Obama by $5 million (9%) + X on the basis that this is not an unreasonable spending and it's what lines up with the reported numbers.

And again you've lied about there being "variation" in the numbers.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denial
Denial (also called abnegation) is a defense mechanism postulated by Sigmund Freud, in which a person is faced with a fact that is too uncomfortable to accept and rejects it instead, insisting that it is not true despite what may be overwhelming evidence.  The subject may deny the reality of the unpleasant fact altogether (simple denial), admit the fact but deny its seriousness (minimisation)

[J. J.]

Lunur:

This might explain it:

McCain ended the month with about $18 million in cash, which he had to transfer to the Republican National Committee because of his decision to participate in the public finance system. The party committee had $76 million in the bank before the transfer. A party official said the party also had about $20 million in a joint fund-raising committee and in special state party accounts that could be used to help McCain.


http://www.philly.com/inquirer/world_us/20080915_Obama__McCain_pull_in_sizable_funds_for_an_August.html

The RNC, according to the article, had $76 M.  McCain transfers $18 M.  That's $94 M, yet the RNC supposedly had $110 M.  Now, obviously the figures don't add up.  And yes, I have hard time believing McCain spent $2 M per day in August, and I've yet to see any expenature reports (I have looked).

[Lunar]

You just now read that?  I've known about that 20 million for ages but didn't figure it was relevant.

It's been in my linked article for days in this thread.  I don't consider a joint committee to be a transfer from the McCain campaign to the RNC, that seems like a big stretch of the truth.

But even if you do include it, it is still is under the 40-60% of 114 million cited.