USA Today/Gallup (NOT TRACKING): Mac 50, Obama 46 (RV); Mac 54, Obama 44 (LV)

[Eraserhead]

Monday is going to be very annoying news day.

[The Vorlon]

Firstly,

One is poll, is, well, one poll.

Secondly, this far out from the election the LV numbers while indicative of enthusiasm, are not particularly predictive with respect to the election.

The +4 on the RV side is consistent with their tracking poll that has McCain at +3.  Last night's Rasmussen sample (just the single night) had McCain at +5, so the RV number seems roughly sane.

A quick note on the LV number.

Gallup's likely voter screening questions work very well when you are very close to the election, they do not work all that well when you are a long way out.

Imagine if we had a poll of who was you favorite football team between, for example the Patriots and the Colts.  For sake or argument, lets say the number among all football fans was Patriots 52, Colts 48.

Now, by way of illistration of the likely voter effect, lets say the Colts had just beaten the Patriots 47-14 in a real blowout, and we again took a poll about who was people's favorite team, except we limited the poll to "likely" football fans, those whom we identified as being excited and enthusuastic about their team. - The Colts fans who had just won big were certainly be energized and likely to be deemed "likely" - while the opposite would be true of Patriot fans.

Botton line?

I think McCain got a decent bounce, he has a modest lead at the RV level, and the GOP faithful, after a lot of years of felling really lousy, think they have something to be happy about.

The bottom line is that this far out the Gallup LV number is a good indicator of who had a good week on the campaign trail, but it's not all that useful as a predictor for November.

I would look at the RV number till middle October or so...

[Person Man]

This could be the first time in 80 years that the GOP has slowly won by bigger and bigger margins...three times in a row- This is what the race could look like-




If this is real, I may soon have to find a new place to live....but I will refuse to say that I ever left America. America simply left me.

I wonder how sustainable this all will be?

[The Vorlon]

A 6-point difference between RV and LV?

Ya, that just tells you who's energized (i.e. Republicans) and who ain't (i.e. Democrats) enough to get past the LV screen.  With the old Gallup model, it's really useless to pay attention to the LV model this far out.  The RV number is the one I'd pay attention to.

Correct

[J. J.]

If it's still like this in 3-4 days, then I'll be concerned. If McCain is still up by this much by next weekend, then I'll be scared sh!tless.

What if he's up by this much before election night?

If McCain is up by 3-4 or more by election day. It's over. I still think the best thing Hillary did for Obama is force him to develop operations in all 50 states during the primaries. I still think that the superior GOTV operation will give Obama a 1-2 point bump from what the polls will show on the eve of election day.

J. J.'s Second Rule of Elections:  "When a politician or activist talks about a large group of voters that, a. aren't being polled, or b. really going to turn out and swing the election, there is no such group."

Second violation today.

I think if the race is tied going in then the election itself will be horrendously close as well. Obama has the advantage when you factor in non-polling of cell phones, GOTV, enthusiasm but he will probably lose that advantage due to the Bradley effect. The bradley effect will vary from state to state and I would say if CO is tied before the election it goes to Obama but if Ohio is tied it goes to Mccain. West vs East basically.

And third.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

J. J. broke his own election rules quite frequently during the primary amusingly (and Phil is basically breaking it now.)

[??????????]

I wonder how sustainable this all will be?

Quit being so melodramatic. If the US could survive an FDR administration we can survive most anything.

[The Vorlon]

I wonder how sustainable this all will be?

Quit being so melodramatic. If the US could survive an FDR administration we can survive most anything.

Ya..

The nation survived the Carter administration - if that didn't kill ya nothing will

[Person Man]

I wonder how sustainable this all will be?

Quit being so melodramatic. If the US could survive an FDR administration we can survive most anything.

Ya..

The nation survived the Carter administration - if that didn't kill ya nothing will

but 40 years.... going on to 44...if not 48 years of sick wierdos like you? "You people" must be testing our countries limits. We probably wouldn't have FDR if the ancestors of "you people" weren't at the helm as long as you are threatening to be now.

[Eraserhead]

McCain takes the lead the lead in RCP average for the first time ever (I think).

[Keystone Phil]

Listen to the sore losers whine...

What's wrong? This election was all wrapped up! What happened?

[Nym90]

I wonder how sustainable this all will be?

Quit being so melodramatic. If the US could survive an FDR administration we can survive most anything.

Agreed. Too bad it's not 1932 again. Those were the days!

[Nym90]

I wonder how sustainable this all will be?

Quit being so melodramatic. If the US could survive an FDR administration we can survive most anything.

Ya..

The nation survived the Carter administration - if that didn't kill ya nothing will

No kidding. He had all that crap about energy conservation and trying to wean us off foreign oil. Luckily Reagan got rid of all that unnecessary stuff.

[Eraserhead]

Listen to the sore losers whine...

What's wrong? This election was all wrapped up! What happened?

"Sore losers"... the election hasn't happened yet. Obviously, you could see how this poll would disappoint some people though.

[Eraserhead]

I wonder what the intrade reaction will be...

[Keystone Phil]

Listen to the sore losers whine...

What's wrong? This election was all wrapped up! What happened?

"Sore losers"... the election hasn't happened yet. Obviously, you could see how this poll would disappoint some people though.

You're already acting like it's over and planning your response if it happens.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I wonder what the intrade reaction will be...

It's got Obama at around 56 now. He's usually around 60.

I trust 538 though which currently has Obama at 68% (and had McCain slightly ahead at some point in August.)

[zorkpolitics]

Way cool!  Three polls in a row (if you count Zogby's interactive poll) have McCain up.

Of course a convention bounce might fade, but think what is coming..  Over the next week suspense will build for Palin's "first interview".  Once again she will suck the air out of Obama's campaign.  When she nails the interview, perhaps with the largest interview audience ever, Bam another bounce up in the polls.

I see McCain up by at least 8 in RV next week, +12 in LV.

[Eraserhead]

Listen to the sore losers whine...

What's wrong? This election was all wrapped up! What happened?

"Sore losers"... the election hasn't happened yet. Obviously, you could see how this poll would disappoint some people though.

You're already acting like it's over and planning your response if it happens.

Nah. I'm just dreading the coming news cycle. I'd be surprised if the race looked like this in a week's time.

[??????????]

Way cool!  Three polls in a row (if you count Zogby's interactive poll) have McCain up.

Of course a convention bounce might fade, but think what is coming..  Over the next week suspense will build for Palin's "first interview".  Once again she will suck the air out of Obama's campaign.  When she nails the interview, perhaps with the largest interview audience ever, Bam another bounce up in the polls.

I see McCain up by at least 8 in RV next week, +12 in LV.

Shhhhhhh!!! Lets not get our hopes up now!

[J. J.]

Way cool!  Three polls in a row (if you count Zogby's interactive poll) have McCain up.

1.  Never count Zogby.

2.  Remember, a poll is a snapshot; McCain had a good week.  Wait for the late week numbers, at least!

[Meeker]

Right after Iowa, Clinton was DONE.

Right after New Hampshire, Obama was DONE.

Right after South Carolina, Clinton was DONE.

People take momentary trends waaaay too seriously on this board. If this was a football game, we'd just be midway through the first quarter. Give it time people.

[Person Man]

Right after Iowa, Clinton was DONE.

Right after New Hampshire, Obama was DONE.

Right after South Carolina, Clinton was DONE.

People take momentary trends waaaay too seriously on this board. If this was a football game, we'd just be midway through the first quarter. Give it time people.

What's the score in this game?

[Sbane]

JJ you don't think Obama has a better GOTV operation in critical states than Mccain? I think that in itself gives him a 1-2 point advantage which is of course taken away by the bradley effect. Thus if the polls say the race is tied before the election, the result will be extremely close( 2000 style).

[Meeker]

Right after Iowa, Clinton was DONE.

Right after New Hampshire, Obama was DONE.

Right after South Carolina, Clinton was DONE.

People take momentary trends waaaay too seriously on this board. If this was a football game, we'd just be midway through the first quarter. Give it time people.

What's the score in this game?

McCain may have just scored a touchdown.

May have.