USA Today/Gallup (NOT TRACKING): Mac 50, Obama 46 (RV); Mac 54, Obama 44 (LV)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Well, it's still a tie in Rasmussen.

[Sbane]

I have heard that Obama has currently got a better ground game in critical states than Mccain. This is expected due to Obama having competed in basically every state in the primary but will Mccain be able to overcome that advantage? As for funding problems are you talking about Obama or Mccain?

Not in terms of GOTV, possibly excepting CO, but I don't know what they are planning there.

The idea of the actual GOTV improving because of the Primary is not accurate.  I also know, from watching, that his Primary GOTV was poor in PA.

Their could be an Obama funding problem, if the polling starts looking bad.  It was a gamble to decline matching funds, a gamble that his popularity would still be high in the Fall.  If he has 2-3 weeks of bad polling, people won't "invest" in Obama at the rate needed to sustain the campaign.  That is the critical problem at this point.  What's Obama's cash on hand like?

Well his current problems could actually lead to more people sending him money. If he makes a huge gaffe then its a whole another story. As for GOTV I was just pointing out that Obama has had people in these states for a long time now and they must be coordinating with the local dems to create a better GOTV system. I dunno why but I just feel at the grassroots level this team is much better than other democratic candidates. Rove created one hell of a grassroots network for Bush in 04 and I really think that is what provided him his margin of victory. Every possible Bush voter got to the poll in the key states.

The best GOTV is the guy in the precinct that knows when individuals normally show up, because he's been doing it for five (or twenty-five) years.

Right, which is why the Obama team would work with local leaders but I am saying that they can perhaps provide more resources than before. Plus they must be contacting people who have never voted before as well. Getting those new voters registered and getting them to the polls is something that is essential for an Obama victory. This will be especially true in suburban areas where people don't go door to door looking for votes like they do in philly or other big cities. For example the Bush folks organized mainly by phone calls. I read somewhere that the local church groups made enormous numbers of phone calls motivating people and getting them out to vote on election day.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I have heard that Obama has currently got a better ground game in critical states than Mccain. This is expected due to Obama having competed in basically every state in the primary but will Mccain be able to overcome that advantage? As for funding problems are you talking about Obama or Mccain?

Not in terms of GOTV, possibly excepting CO, but I don't know what they are planning there.

The idea of the actual GOTV improving because of the Primary is not accurate.  I also know, from watching, that his Primary GOTV was poor in PA.

Their could be an Obama funding problem, if the polling starts looking bad.  It was a gamble to decline matching funds, a gamble that his popularity would still be high in the Fall.  If he has 2-3 weeks of bad polling, people won't "invest" in Obama at the rate needed to sustain the campaign.  That is the critical problem at this point.  What's Obama's cash on hand like?

Well his current problems could actually lead to more people sending him money. If he makes a huge gaffe then its a whole another story. As for GOTV I was just pointing out that Obama has had people in these states for a long time now and they must be coordinating with the local dems to create a better GOTV system. I dunno why but I just feel at the grassroots level this team is much better than other democratic candidates. Rove created one hell of a grassroots network for Bush in 04 and I really think that is what provided him his margin of victory. Every possible Bush voter got to the poll in the key states.

The best GOTV is the guy in the precinct that knows when individuals normally show up, because he's been doing it for five (or twenty-five) years.

Five years? So two elections?

[J. J.]

What's Obama's cash on hand like?

He had 70 Mio. c-o-h at the beginning of August, probably raised between 60-90 Mio. in August and spent about 50 Mio.

So he would have about 90-100 Mio. c-o-h right now.

And McCain's, with the federal funds?

Considering that he had to spend all of his money before the convention or transfer it to the RNC, about 85 Mio.

If I understand correctly, McCain gets 84 million in Federal funds, exclusive of what he transferred to the Party.  http://www.fec.gov/pages/brochures/pubfund.shtml#7

See also:  
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN1633725920080817?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=10112

So basically the party can spend it for him, about 20-25 million.  They had 75 million in July without that.  So McCain conservatively has 84 million, RNC has 95-100 million,  Obama generously has 100 million, and the DNC has generously 30 million.. 170 to 130.  Even at a slower rate of fund raising for the RNC, they will have to raise 40 million for parity.

Yes, there could be a problem.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I wonder if J. J. is feeling nauseous now due to all that spinning.

Obama raised at least twice that gap in August so he would overtake at the current rate, and the DSCC and DCCC have way more money than the NRSC and NRCC meaning the RNC will need to spend more money there. Adding that in there might not even be a gap at all.

[J. J.]

possible Bush voter got to the poll in the key states.

The best GOTV is the guy in the precinct that knows when individuals normally show up, because he's been doing it for five (or twenty-five) years.
[/quote]

Five years? So two elections?
[/quote]

If it's somebody "new" from the primary, they have been in zero general elections.

If you are looking very locally, it's someone who's been there for the while.  The same people, for the most par, that were doing it in 2004 will be doing it in 2008.

[J. J.]

I wonder if J. J. is feeling nauseous now due to all that spinning.

Obama raised at least twice that gap in August so he would overtake at the current rate, and the DSCC and DCCC have way more money than the NRSC and NRCC meaning the RNC will need to spend more money there. Adding that in there might not even be a gap at all.

No spin.  Just a gamble on Obama's part.

People give to campaigns for two general reasons:

1.  They really agree with the guy and are doing it as a matter of principle.

2.  They think the guy has a good chance of winning.  They "invest" in the candidate.

These overlap, i.e. "I really like the guy and think that he has a good chance at winning so I'll invest in him."

Obama looked like a winner in July. If, and that is big "if," the polls go down and there is a strong perception that Obama won't win, his fund raising capacity is reduced.  It's called "Throwing good money after bad."  For that to happen, Obama's numbers have not only to go down, but stay down for a while (2-3 weeks).  I don't that what will happen, but it's a possibility.  Past contributions are no guarantee of future contributions.

[Dan the Roman]

I think there is another problem with the Obama ground game. It seems to be heavily based on registering voters on the assumption that if someones says they are voting for Obama in June, and you register them, they will

A. Show up in November

B. Still vote for Obama

I think the Obama team is aware but badly underestimates the first issue, and is seemingly oblivious to the latter. To be frank, as someone who has had some interaction with the Obama ground people they strike me as folks who have not read a newspaper since June, and are not adopting a broad-based GOTV effort(ie. simply registering votes and trusting Obama to deliver them to him) to a narrow one(focusing on whose solid). A lot of these new voters were unregistered for a reason, and they are probably not the most loyal contituency you could have.

[Democratic Hawk]

If it's still like this in 3-4 days, then I'll be concerned. If McCain is still up by this much by next weekend, then I'll be scared sh!tless.

What if he's up by this much before election night?

Then the middle class and working families are going to be shafted for the next four years just like they have been the last eight. America's international standing will remain in the gutter

President Obama will be greated with euphoria and waving US flags the world over; they'll burn for President McCain, especially if Obama loses and it is perceived as a consequence of racism

Dave

[Reaganfan]

If it's still like this in 3-4 days, then I'll be concerned. If McCain is still up by this much by next weekend, then I'll be scared sh!tless.

What if he's up by this much before election night?

Then the middle class and working families are going to be shafted for the next four years just like they have been the last eight. America's international standing will remain in the gutter

President Obama will be greated with euphoria and waving US flags the world over; they'll burn for President McCain, especially if Obama loses and it is perceived as a consequence of racism

Dave

GOOD. Why the hell should we be like the rest of the world? We're the United States of America! We help people all over the world with disease, poverty and help them fight their enemies. We saved the French...we beat the Germans the Japanese and the Soviet Union. We're the greatest country in the World...we don't need to make the rest of the World happy!

[Democratic Hawk]

If it's still like this in 3-4 days, then I'll be concerned. If McCain is still up by this much by next weekend, then I'll be scared sh!tless.

What if he's up by this much before election night?

Then the middle class and working families are going to be shafted for the next four years just like they have been the last eight. America's international standing will remain in the gutter

President Obama will be greated with euphoria and waving US flags the world over; they'll burn for President McCain, especially if Obama loses and it is perceived as a consequence of racism

Dave

GOOD. Why the hell should we be like the rest of the world? We're the United States of America! We help people all over the world with disease, poverty and help them fight their enemies. We saved the French...we beat the Germans the Japanese and the Soviet Union. We're the greatest country in the World...we don't need to make the rest of the World happy!

Well, FDR saved the French, beat the Germans and the Japanese; Reagan and Bush 41 saw the fall of the Soviet Union

Great country's deserve presidents, who can command respect as opposed to ridicule and contempt. I've never known America's international standing be so low. What self-respecting Americophile has an investment in that? I don't

I'm not impressed with Bush's record. Had a Democrat governed as ineptly as he did in his first term, they'd have been out on their arse in 2004

I'm supporting Obama (aside from the fact he is closer to my own Christian Democratic convictions on economic and quality of life issues) because he knows as a Democrat -  with America being a center-right nation in so far as conservatives outnumber liberals three to two, that if he wins he has to govern well and deliver on the "American Promise" otherwise he is out in 2012

The decline of America's international standing under Bush has caused me nothing but heartache. End of

Dave

[Franzl]

If it's still like this in 3-4 days, then I'll be concerned. If McCain is still up by this much by next weekend, then I'll be scared sh!tless.

What if he's up by this much before election night?

Then the middle class and working families are going to be shafted for the next four years just like they have been the last eight. America's international standing will remain in the gutter

President Obama will be greated with euphoria and waving US flags the world over; they'll burn for President McCain, especially if Obama loses and it is perceived as a consequence of racism

Dave

GOOD. Why the hell should we be like the rest of the world? We're the United States of America! We help people all over the world with disease, poverty and help them fight their enemies. We saved the French...we beat the Germans the Japanese and the Soviet Union. We're the greatest country in the World...we don't need to make the rest of the World happy!

would you like some fries with that crack?

[Democratic Hawk]

And because I'm down on Bush, I've little confidence in McCain, a Republican, being a significant improvement

I'll always find it lamentable that he wasn't nominated by the Republicans in 2000. He was, after all, as much a war hero, with a compelling story to tell as a POW in Vietnam, then as he is now. Kudos to him on the success of the Iraq surge - but it was always going to take more than that for me to have another 1972 moment

Besides I'm closer to Obama, on the issues that would matter to me most, and no candidate for president has ever connected with me on a personal level to the extent to what he has - and I can only remain true to my convictions

Dave

[Zarn]

I hate it, when people say FDR defeated the Germans and Japanese. Try Ike, MacArthur, other generals, two atomic bombs, and millions of Allied military personel, factory workers, and farmers. FDR put Japanese Americans in camps, including ones whose relatives were fighting in Italy for the US.

I even hate it, when people say the US won the war. That's not completely true. The Allies did.

[??????????]

Hawk is such a hack now it's unbelievable.

[Eraserhead]

Hawk is such a hack now it's unbelievable.

Favoring one candidate over another automatically makes you a hack?

[Person Man]

If it's still like this in 3-4 days, then I'll be concerned. If McCain is still up by this much by next weekend, then I'll be scared sh!tless.

What if he's up by this much before election night?

Then the middle class and working families are going to be shafted for the next four years just like they have been the last eight. America's international standing will remain in the gutter

President Obama will be greated with euphoria and waving US flags the world over; they'll burn for President McCain, especially if Obama loses and it is perceived as a consequence of racism

Dave

GOOD. Why the hell should we be like the rest of the world? We're the United States of America! We help people all over the world with disease, poverty and help them fight their enemies. We saved the French...we beat the Germans the Japanese and the Soviet Union. We're the greatest country in the World...we don't need to make the rest of the World happy!

would you like some fries with that crack?

Yes. At this point Republicans think that the entire human race is subservient and dependant on them. They basically think of themselves as a replacement for God.

[opebo]

I hate it, when people say FDR defeated the Germans and Japanese. Try Ike, MacArthur, other generals, two atomic bombs, and millions of Allied military personel, factory workers, and farmers. FDR put Japanese Americans in camps, including ones whose relatives were fighting in Italy for the US.

I even hate it, when people say the US won the war. That's not completely true. The Allies did.

Actually Russia defeated the Germans, the US and Britain just helped.

[Gustaf]

Hawk is such a hack now it's unbelievable.

Favoring one candidate over another automatically makes you a hack?

No. But the way he "argues" if you can call it that is so hackish it is up there with the New Jersey Hillary-supporters.

[??????????]

Hawk is such a hack now it's unbelievable.

Favoring one candidate over another automatically makes you a hack?

"Elitist McCain" "Saintly Sarah" ? ? ?

[Democratic Hawk]

Hawk is such a hack now it's unbelievable.

Not at all. Just haven't got any investment in America's continued decline at the hands of the Grand Incompetent Party. George W Bush gave it that name

Dave

[Person Man]

Hawk is such a hack now it's unbelievable.

Favoring one candidate over another automatically makes you a hack?

"Elitist McCain" "Saintly Sarah" ? ? ?

Poor Sweet Sarah....

[??????????]

Yeah, blue dogs are just like liberal Democrats.

Poor Sweet Sarah....

You must have a reading comprehension problem. JJ uses quotes around the term.

[Brittain33]

"Elitist McCain" "Saintly Sarah" ? ? ?

"Saintly Sarah" is a take-off of a certain phrase that has appeared very many times in J.J.'s posts.

[Democratic Hawk]

Hawk is such a hack now it's unbelievable.

Favoring one candidate over another automatically makes you a hack?

"Elitist McCain" "Saintly Sarah" ? ? ?

Well, it's there