So Russia and Georgia just went to war

[J. J.]

Since at least 1700, Tsarist Russia and the Soviet Union have followed the same "border policy."  That is, basically, to surround itself with dominated states, almost in concentric rings.  This is an extension of that.

20 years ago, the Soviets looked at their front lines and saw the Elbe; today the have to look almost to the Don.  The last 20 years have been an aberration in this policy.

You have to convince them that even little Georgia is not a threat.  Yes, it's strange, but it is Russian culture.  You also have to understand the perceived threat Georgia is to Russia,

[J. J.]

So, what do you guys think the chances of Russian tanks rolling into Tbilisi are?

Moderate to high.  Russia is scared.

[Flying Dog]

So, what do you guys think the chances of Russian tanks rolling into Tbilisi are?

Moderate to high.  Russia is scared.

That basically would mean a toppling of the Georgian Government, no?

This is ridiculous. Russia's talking and actions really aren't matching up right now. They are using the line that they are "protecting the South Ossetians from Georgian aggression" as an excuse. However, how much was Gori a threat to them and why did they have to bomb the hell out of it?

[Dan the Roman]

So, what do you guys think the chances of Russian tanks rolling into Tbilisi are?

Moderate to high.  Russia is scared.

The Defense Ministry claims they have no plans to attack Tblisi, but who knows if they find someone to "invite" them in.

[dead0man]

So, what do you guys think the chances of Russian tanks rolling into Tbilisi are?

As prepared as they were for this war that they are claiming was started "by the other guy" I'd guess that was their plan the whole time.  You don't just pull a column of tanks out of your butt.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

So, what do you guys think the chances of Russian tanks rolling into Tbilisi are?

Moderate to high.  Russia is scared.

The Defense Ministry claims they have no plans to attack Tblisi, but who knows if they find (or invent) someone to "invite" them in.

[StateBoiler]

So, what do you guys think the chances of Russian tanks rolling into Tbilisi are?

As prepared as they were for this war that they are claiming was started "by the other guy" I'd guess that was their plan the whole time.  You don't just pull a column of tanks out of your butt.

Yes. The Russians had very good inside intelligence in Georgia. Saakashvili like the dumb motherf***er he is made the decision to move forces into South Ossetia and the Russians probably knew within 15 minutes he'd done it.

[J. J.]

So, what do you guys think the chances of Russian tanks rolling into Tbilisi are?

Moderate to high.  Russia is scared.

The Defense Ministry claims they have no plans to attack Tblisi, but who knows if they find someone to "invite" them in.

I think they just bombed it?

[dead0man]

So, what do you guys think the chances of Russian tanks rolling into Tbilisi are?

As prepared as they were for this war that they are claiming was started "by the other guy" I'd guess that was their plan the whole time.  You don't just pull a column of tanks out of your butt.

Yes. The Russians had very good inside intelligence in Georgia. Saakashvili like the dumb motherf***er he is made the decision to move forces into South Ossetia and the Russians probably knew within 15 minutes he'd done it.

Again, you don't just pull a column of tanks out of your butt.

[The Mikado]

So, what do you guys think the chances of Russian tanks rolling into Tbilisi are?

Moderate to high.  Russia is scared.

The Defense Ministry claims they have no plans to attack Tblisi, but who knows if they find someone to "invite" them in.

I think they just bombed it?

There's a big difference between bombing a city and attempting to occupy it.  If the Russians do occupy Tbilisi, they won't leave.

I'm fully expecting permanent Russian garrisons around Georgia, a pliant client state installed, Abkhaz "independence," and South Ossetia very possibly annexed to Russia.

[dead0man]

I'm fully expecting permanent Russian garrisons around Georgia, a pliant client state installed, Abkhaz "independence," and South Ossetia very possibly annexed to Russia.

And that should be unacceptable to the west and worthy going to war over.

[Flying Dog]

Indeed. They're bombing the Tbilisi Civilian airport. Classy Russia.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm fully expecting permanent Russian garrisons around Georgia, a pliant client state installed, Abkhaz "independence," and South Ossetia very possibly annexed to Russia.

And that should be unacceptable to the west and worthy going to war over.

Not worth a nuclear war. And that's what any war between the West and Russia would entail...

[Hash]

Classy Russia.

Russia never tries to be classy in anything.

[J. J.]

So, what do you guys think the chances of Russian tanks rolling into Tbilisi are?

Moderate to high.  Russia is scared.

The Defense Ministry claims they have no plans to attack Tblisi, but who knows if they find someone to "invite" them in.

I think they just bombed it?

There's a big difference between bombing a city and attempting to occupy it.  If the Russians do occupy Tbilisi, they won't leave.

I'm fully expecting permanent Russian garrisons around Georgia, a pliant client state installed, Abkhaz "independence," and South Ossetia very possibly annexed to Russia.

The claim was an "attack."  It has happened.  Georgia will be lucky to survive just dismembered.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

I'm fully expecting permanent Russian garrisons around Georgia, a pliant client state installed, Abkhaz "independence," and South Ossetia very possibly annexed to Russia.

And that should be unacceptable to the west and worthy going to war over.

Not worth a nuclear war. And that's what any war between the West and Russia would entail...

Until that come some leaders who would be fascinating by apocalypse...

[dead0man]

I'm fully expecting permanent Russian garrisons around Georgia, a pliant client state installed, Abkhaz "independence," and South Ossetia very possibly annexed to Russia.

And that should be unacceptable to the west and worthy going to war over.

Not worth a nuclear war. And that's what any war between the West and Russia would entail...

You're right.  We should let Hitler Putin have his Sudetenland Georgia.

[dead0man]

...and that's the first time I've Godwin'ed a thread in a long time

[Хahar 🤔]

I'm fully expecting permanent Russian garrisons around Georgia, a pliant client state installed, Abkhaz "independence," and South Ossetia very possibly annexed to Russia.

And that should be unacceptable to the west and worthy going to war over.

No, it shouldn't.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm fully expecting permanent Russian garrisons around Georgia, a pliant client state installed, Abkhaz "independence," and South Ossetia very possibly annexed to Russia.

And that should be unacceptable to the west and worthy going to war over.

Not worth a nuclear war. And that's what any war between the West and Russia would entail...

You're right.  We should let Hitler Putin have his Sudetenland Georgia.

Putin isn't Hitler. Just the latest in a long line of paranoid despots.

[dead0man]

Of course.  But you agree this is his Sudetenland?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course.  But you agree this is his Sudetenland?

No. Nothing like that really; there's no racial nationalist motivation here, just the usual attitudes to the "near abroad".

[dead0man]

Just regular old appeasement then?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You greatly overstate how serious this is if you think a (misguided, as it happens) reference to appeasement is appropriate...

[dead0man]

Hopefully you're right.