FL/OH/PA-Quinnipiac: Obama in command

[khirkhib]

Actually I think this poll gives some good areas for growth for Obama, it still pegs McCain with a double digit lead with Hispanic voters which I think will decrease even in Florida and the percentage of Democrats backing Obama is certain to grow

[JohnCA246]

I have little doubt McCain will win most Cubans.  PA and OH have very few Hispanics, so they are very hard to measure.

[Keystone Phil]

Are we done considering Quinnipiac a top pollster? These numbers are just ridiculous even if Obama is leading.

[Brittain33]

Are we done considering Quinnipiac a top pollster? These numbers are just ridiculous even if Obama is leading.

Why are they ridiculous? Florida was exactly even in 2000, and less than R+3 in 2004. If Obama's leading by 6 nationwide post-nomination-bump, unless Florida is trending significantly more Republican than the rest of the country this year, this is perfectly reasonable.

[Keystone Phil]

Are we done considering Quinnipiac a top pollster? These numbers are just ridiculous even if Obama is leading.

Why are they ridiculous? Florida was exactly even in 2000, and less than R+3 in 2004. If Obama's leading by 6 nationwide post-nomination-bump, unless Florida is trending significantly more Republican than the rest of the country this year, this is perfectly reasonable.

And up twelve in PA and leading by six in OH? The numbers seem a bit inflated.

[Brittain33]

And up twelve in PA and leading by six in OH? The numbers seem a bit inflated.

The reason people felt PA and OH were close was because they felt that Clinton voters wouldn't support Obama. These polls numbers are consistent with Democrats coming back to support Obama and Independents leaning that way, which was always a possibility given the terrible national environment for McCain and Republicans in general and the fact that if race weren't in the equation, people would have shunted those states into the lean or likely Democratic column at the start of the election.

I don't know if these numbers are realistic for Election Day, but they ring true to me for an Obama bump that may be temporary with Democratic party unity.

[Keystone Phil]

And up twelve in PA and leading by six in OH? The numbers seem a bit inflated.

The reason people felt PA and OH were close was because they felt that Clinton voters wouldn't support Obama. These polls numbers are consistent with Democrats coming back to support Obama and Independents leaning that way, which was always a possibility given the terrible national environment for McCain and Republicans in general and the fact that if race weren't in the equation, people would have shunted those states into the lean or likely Democratic column at the start of the election.

I don't know if these numbers are realistic for Election Day, but they ring true to me for an Obama bump that may be temporary with Democratic party unity.

You're really kidding yourself if you think these numbers are going to stick. Even with Democratic unity, Obama isn't up twelve here.

[Lief 🗽]

Good poll numbers, especially Florida. If Obama is competitive in Florida, then McCain is in very deep trouble.

[Lief 🗽]

Here are some interesting results from the polls that fly in the face of the "Obama can't win white working class voters or Hillary supporters" nonsense:

In PA, Obama is winning non-college educated whites 47-44. He is also winning whites 47-44. He is winning women, the same women that Clinton argued that only she could bring to the polls, the same women that the media argued would go to McCain because they were angry at Obama, by 23 points.

On to Florida, Obama is doing reasonably well with white voters, capturing 40% of the vote. And he hasn't even campaigned here yet. He is also leading by 30 points in SE Florida, so he must be winning Jews by a large margin, another group that the media said he would struggle with.

Finally, in Ohio, the state where Obama's "problems" with the working class should be most apparent, he is losing whites by only 3 points, and losing whites with no college degree by only 3 points. And he is winning 80% of Democrats, meaning that he must also be winning white Democrats by a solid margin.

[Smash255]

Considering Obama is generally up 5-6 nationally, being up  4 Florida seems pretty close to being accurate

[RJ]

This is the second poll we've seen in Ohio that shows Obama with a lead outside the margin of error. I wouldn't think it would be so easy for Barrack but I didn't believe the polls in VA in 2006 until every single one of them pointed to the race being a tossup with Webb being the slightest of favorites. If this doesn't change in 1-2 weeks I think we have to put OH into the leaning Obama column.

In Obama's favor, my .02 on this "bounce" he received by unofficially officially being named the nominee may be more permanent than people think. Bush's approval numbers are terrible and the party now has a nominee to unite it. In contrast, as far as the summer being better for Democrats heading into the campaign season Kerry led Bush 48-46 nationally at this time 4 years ago. Let's not forget Dukakis' meltdown in 1988 or even Carter's ability to nearly snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. 1976 and 1988 were 2 elections the deck was stacked in favor of the Democrats and they almost blew both.

[Brittain33]

You're really kidding yourself if you think these numbers are going to stick.

I didn't say they were going to, or even likely to. I would be foolish to completely rule out the possibility, but I acknowledge this is a bump.

If it isn't going to stick, then isn't it reasonable to say Obama is up 12 now and would win in the end by 5-6 points?

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Look at all the other state polls we've got the last few days. With a few notable exception, they all show a big lurch to one side. The mid-point has shifted. Pennsylvania has always been lean Democratic, all else being equal, and if the country moves to lean/likely Democratic for the time being that makes 12 points reasonable.

This country is really, really ready for change, and if enough people think Obama is credible, he can reap big rewards. The "if" was always the problem.

Again, this is now, when Obama's having a bump from winning the nomination. I recognize there will be more shifts in the future.

[Lief 🗽]

In 2004, PA was D+5. Obama is currently leading by about 5 points nationally, so Obama winning PA by 12 points makes perfect sense, when you take MoE into account.

[Keystone Phil]

If it isn't going to stick, then isn't it reasonable to say Obama is up 12 now and would win in the end by 5-6 points?

Ha. Obama takes PA by six. Ok, next...

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Show me another poll that has him with a double digit lead and I'll concede the point.

[Lief 🗽]

Wait... you think Obama taking Pennsylvania by six points is ridiculous? What? The state was 5 points more Democratic than the national average in 2004. As long as Obama wins the popular vote, he'll take Pennsylvania by 6. And if he wins by 4 or 5 points, like the polls indicate, he will push double digits in the state.

[exopolitician]

Wait... you think Obama taking Pennsylvania by six points is ridiculous? What? The state was 5 points more Democratic than the national average in 2004. As long as Obama wins the popular vote, he'll take Pennsylvania by 6. And if he wins by 4 or 5 points, like the polls indicate, he will push double digits in the state.

Um....Pennsylvania is a BATTLEGROUND state. Everyone has to know this...

[Keystone Phil]

Wait... you think Obama taking Pennsylvania by six points is ridiculous? What? The state was 5 points more Democratic than the national average in 2004. As long as Obama wins the popular vote, he'll take Pennsylvania by 6. And if he wins by 4 or 5 points, like the polls indicate, he will push double digits in the state.

Um....Pennsylvania is a BATTLEGROUND state. Everyone has to know this...

Because it obviously isn't!

Wait... you think Obama taking Pennsylvania by six points is ridiculous? What? The state was 5 points more Democratic than the national average in 2004. As long as Obama wins the popular vote, he'll take Pennsylvania by 6. And if he wins by 4 or 5 points, like the polls indicate, he will push double digits in the state.

Hahaha...ok!

[Lief 🗽]

What are you laughing at? Are you saying that national swings don't apply to Pennsylvania for some reason?

[Keystone Phil]

What are you laughing at? Are you saying that national swings don't apply to Pennsylvania for some reason?

I find it laughable when everyone applies this "Well, this state was +3 for the Dems compared to national numbers so it would easily go +10 for the Dems in 2008!"

[Kalimantan]

What are you laughing at? Are you saying that national swings don't apply to Pennsylvania for some reason?

I find it laughable when everyone applies this "Well, this state was +3 for the Dems compared to national numbers so it would easily go +10 for the Dems in 2008!"

You're going to get so owned in November..

[Lief 🗽]

What are you laughing at? Are you saying that national swings don't apply to Pennsylvania for some reason?

I find it laughable when everyone applies this "Well, this state was +3 for the Dems compared to national numbers so it would easily go +10 for the Dems in 2008!"

If the Democrats win by 7 points, then yes, there's a good chance of that occurring, as 3+7=10. Pennsylvania will trend one way or another, yes, but not by 10 points or something.

[Reaganfan]

I wouldn't even spend that much dough in PA because McCain ain't gonna win it.

[Keystone Phil]

What are you laughing at? Are you saying that national swings don't apply to Pennsylvania for some reason?

I find it laughable when everyone applies this "Well, this state was +3 for the Dems compared to national numbers so it would easily go +10 for the Dems in 2008!"

If the Democrats win by 7 points, then yes, there's a good chance of that occurring, as 3+7=10. Pennsylvania will trend one way or another, yes, but not by 10 points or something.

Barack Obama is not going to beat John McCain by seven points nationally. End.

And maybe you're still not understanding, Mr. "Kansas goes Obama." The point is that it's not always as easy as "Well, state X is automatically +3 for the Dems."

What are you laughing at? Are you saying that national swings don't apply to Pennsylvania for some reason?

I find it laughable when everyone applies this "Well, this state was +3 for the Dems compared to national numbers so it would easily go +10 for the Dems in 2008!"

You're going to get so owned in November..

Oh, why? Because Obama is going to sweep the nation? Sweeping the Dakotas! Sweeping the plain states!

I wish I was around in 1988 so Dukakis supporters could have told me "You're going to get so owned in November..." when their guy was up seventeen points nationally.

[Lief 🗽]

What are you laughing at? Are you saying that national swings don't apply to Pennsylvania for some reason?

I find it laughable when everyone applies this "Well, this state was +3 for the Dems compared to national numbers so it would easily go +10 for the Dems in 2008!"

If the Democrats win by 7 points, then yes, there's a good chance of that occurring, as 3+7=10. Pennsylvania will trend one way or another, yes, but not by 10 points or something.

Barack Obama is not going to beat John McCain by seven points nationally. End.

And maybe you're still not understanding, Mr. "Kansas goes Obama." The point is that it's not always as easy as "Well, state X is automatically +3 for the Dems."

You're the one that brought up the +7 figure, so...

It's not always as easy as saying that, right, but Pennsylvania, despite some Republican delusions, is not swinging away from the Democrats by such a great margin that it would be close if Obama won nationally by 5 points. Pennsylvania is a state with a Democratic tilt to it, and the only way McCain can overcome that is by winning the popular vote significantly. If Obama wins nationally significantly, then Pennsylvania will be called early and easily for him, in the same way that a state like Arkansas or South Carolina would be called early and easily for McCain if he won by 5 points nationally.

[Keystone Phil]

You're the one that brought up the +7 figure, so...

It's not always as easy as saying that, right, but Pennsylvania, despite some Republican delusions, is not swinging away from the Democrats by such a great margin that it would be close if Obama won nationally by 5 points.

The only delusion is that Obama is going to win by five to seven points.

 

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Or if he taps into the traditionally blue collar ethnic Catholic voters in areas like mine. Believe me, these people are not happy with Obama as the nominee. Also, take into consideration the Bradley Effect in polls such as these.

 

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But this won't be an easy win for him so get over it, folks. Please. Lief, you're not taking Kansas. You're not taking North Dakota. You're not taking Georgia. You're not taking Alaska. It really is time to wake up.