FL/OH/PA-Quinnipiac: Obama in command

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

PA database: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=4220080616015
OH: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=3920080616015
FL: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=1220080616015

[Brittain33]

Or if he taps into the traditionally blue collar ethnic Catholic voters in areas like mine. Believe me, these people are not happy with Obama as the nominee.

Tell me, are conservatives and evangelicals in Pennsylvania head over heels for McCain? I recall not long ago he was widely disliked in the party...

[Keystone Phil]

Or if he taps into the traditionally blue collar ethnic Catholic voters in areas like mine. Believe me, these people are not happy with Obama as the nominee.

Tell me, are conservatives and evangelicals in Pennsylvania head over heels for McCain? I recall not long ago he was widely disliked in the party...

McCain has fewer problems with that faction than Obama does with the group I mentioned.

[RJ]

Or if he taps into the traditionally blue collar ethnic Catholic voters in areas like mine. Believe me, these people are not happy with Obama as the nominee.

McCain has fewer problems with that faction than Obama does with the group I mentioned.

Are these the voters you're referring to that Obama has more problems than McCain has with the GOP base? I think your analysis could go either way, but there should be a lot more to Pennsylvania than this type of vote.

[Keystone Phil]

Are these the voters you're referring to that Obama has more problems than McCain has with the GOP base?

Yes, those are the types. I know plenty of very partisan Democrats in my precinct that have sworn not to vote for Obama. This precinct went for Kerry by at least ten points. Obama cannot afford to lose these areas.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Are these the voters you're referring to that Obama has more problems than McCain has with the GOP base?

Yes, those are the types. I know plenty of very partisan Democrats in my precinct that have sworn not to vote for Obama. This precinct went for Kerry by at least ten points. Obama cannot afford to lose these areas.

What is more worthless than anecdotal evidence? Not much.

[Keystone Phil]

Are these the voters you're referring to that Obama has more problems than McCain has with the GOP base?

Yes, those are the types. I know plenty of very partisan Democrats in my precinct that have sworn not to vote for Obama. This precinct went for Kerry by at least ten points. Obama cannot afford to lose these areas.

What is more worthless than anecdotal evidence? Not much.

Haha...ok! It's a bit more than your average "anecdotal evidence" when I work my polling place every Election day and I'm active in the local political scene but whatever. Keep living in this fantasy that they'll all come back into the Democratic fold just because they're Democrats and they're not happy with Bush. Your mistakes make my success so I'm not complaining!

[Alcon]

Are these the voters you're referring to that Obama has more problems than McCain has with the GOP base?

Yes, those are the types. I know plenty of very partisan Democrats in my precinct that have sworn not to vote for Obama. This precinct went for Kerry by at least ten points. Obama cannot afford to lose these areas.

What is more worthless than anecdotal evidence? Not much.

Haha...ok! It's a bit more than your average "anecdotal evidence" when I work my polling place every Election day and I'm active in the local political scene but whatever. Keep living in this fantasy that they'll all come back into the Democratic fold just because they're Democrats and they're not happy with Bush. Your mistakes make my success so I'm not complaining!

At risk of defending BRTD, why aren't those folks showing up in the polls?  They're lying en masse?

(That's actually a sincere question - I don't understand the psychology of that kind of Democrat at all )

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Are these the voters you're referring to that Obama has more problems than McCain has with the GOP base?

Yes, those are the types. I know plenty of very partisan Democrats in my precinct that have sworn not to vote for Obama. This precinct went for Kerry by at least ten points. Obama cannot afford to lose these areas.

What is more worthless than anecdotal evidence? Not much.

Haha...ok! It's a bit more than your average "anecdotal evidence" when I work my polling place every Election day and I'm active in the local political scene but whatever. Keep living in this fantasy that they'll all come back into the Democratic fold just because they're Democrats and they're not happy with Bush. Your mistakes make my success so I'm not complaining!

What should I trust more: anecdotal evidence or polls?

[Padfoot]

Also, take into consideration the Bradley Effect in polls such as these.

I think the Bradley effect has already been proven to be out of play thus far so I don't see any reason why it should suddenly rear its head during the general election.  With the exception of New Hampshire there wasn't one state that polled consistently for Obama that he lost.  The issue of race has already made its big splash during the primary so unless the legendary "whitey tape" pops up in October I doubt we'll even feel the ripples.

[Keystone Phil]

At risk of defending BRTD, why aren't those folks showing up in the polls?  They're lying en masse?

(That's actually a sincere question - I don't understand the psychology of that kind of Democrat at all )

Bradley Effect?

Are these the voters you're referring to that Obama has more problems than McCain has with the GOP base?

Yes, those are the types. I know plenty of very partisan Democrats in my precinct that have sworn not to vote for Obama. This precinct went for Kerry by at least ten points. Obama cannot afford to lose these areas.

What is more worthless than anecdotal evidence? Not much.

Haha...ok! It's a bit more than your average "anecdotal evidence" when I work my polling place every Election day and I'm active in the local political scene but whatever. Keep living in this fantasy that they'll all come back into the Democratic fold just because they're Democrats and they're not happy with Bush. Your mistakes make my success so I'm not complaining!

What should I trust more: anecdotal evidence or polls?

Anecdotal evidence or polls four and a half months before the election?

Also, take into consideration the Bradley Effect in polls such as these.

I think the Bradley effect has already been proven to be out of play thus far so I don't see any reason why it should suddenly rear its head during the general election. 

Independents, Republicans and Democrats that didn't vote in the primary?

[Brittain33]

Or if he taps into the traditionally blue collar ethnic Catholic voters in areas like mine. Believe me, these people are not happy with Obama as the nominee.

Tell me, are conservatives and evangelicals in Pennsylvania head over heels for McCain? I recall not long ago he was widely disliked in the party...

McCain has fewer problems with that faction than Obama does with the group I mentioned.

What's your basis for saying that?

[Gustaf]

What are you laughing at? Are you saying that national swings don't apply to Pennsylvania for some reason?

I find it laughable when everyone applies this "Well, this state was +3 for the Dems compared to national numbers so it would easily go +10 for the Dems in 2008!"

If the Democrats win by 7 points, then yes, there's a good chance of that occurring, as 3+7=10. Pennsylvania will trend one way or another, yes, but not by 10 points or something.

Barack Obama is not going to beat John McCain by seven points nationally. End.

And maybe you're still not understanding, Mr. "Kansas goes Obama." The point is that it's not always as easy as "Well, state X is automatically +3 for the Dems."

You're the one that brought up the +7 figure, so...

It's not always as easy as saying that, right, but Pennsylvania, despite some Republican delusions, is not swinging away from the Democrats by such a great margin that it would be close if Obama won nationally by 5 points. Pennsylvania is a state with a Democratic tilt to it, and the only way McCain can overcome that is by winning the popular vote significantly. If Obama wins nationally significantly, then Pennsylvania will be called early and easily for him, in the same way that a state like Arkansas or South Carolina would be called early and easily for McCain if he won by 5 points nationally.

Since you love national averages so much I'd like to point out that Arkansas was +7.3% for Bush in 2004 and South Carolina was +14.5%. PA on the other hand was +4.96% for Kerry. And pretty much everything indicates that all of these states are likely to be better compared to national average for McCain than they were for Bush (or at least not worse). If you want a state comparable to Pennsylvania it would be Missouri or Virginia. But all of those calculations should be treated with caution since they over-simplify quite a bit.

[RJ]

Are these the voters you're referring to that Obama has more problems than McCain has with the GOP base?

Yes, those are the types. I know plenty of very partisan Democrats in my precinct that have sworn not to vote for Obama. This precinct went for Kerry by at least ten points. Obama cannot afford to lose these areas.

PA has a similar problem for the Republican party that they have in IL and WA. 1 county speaks for the entire state. In IL and WA, Cook an King counties respectively were won by both Gore and Kerry by a wider margin of votes than they took the entire state. If not for those counties those states would be solidly in the Republican column. In PA it's Philadelphia County. It stands to reason that if voters in that county show up on election day it looks good for the Democratic party.

"Catholic blue collar ethnic voters?" What other types of voters are there in PA? What's the breakdown look like? I just gave a hint by citing Philadelphia. There's more to an electorate than what's in your city, town, environment, social circle, or whatever and there's more to political beliefs than the ones that 1 individual has.

[Keystone Phil]

Or if he taps into the traditionally blue collar ethnic Catholic voters in areas like mine. Believe me, these people are not happy with Obama as the nominee.

Tell me, are conservatives and evangelicals in Pennsylvania head over heels for McCain? I recall not long ago he was widely disliked in the party...

McCain has fewer problems with that faction than Obama does with the group I mentioned.

What's your basis for saying that?

Because we haven't been hearing about any bitter divisions and didn't have that prolonged, nasty struggle. I know most of the wounds will heal in the Democratic party but the disconnect between Obama and that working class Democratic base (some of it, yes, based on race and that's something Obama can't fix) is going to hurt in states that really matter.

"Catholic blue collar ethnic voters?" What other types of voters are there in PA? What's the breakdown look like? I just gave a hint by citing Philadelphia. There's more to an electorate than what's in your city, town, environment, social circle, or whatever and there's more to political beliefs than the ones that 1 individual has.

I live in Philadelphia. These are the types that I'm talking about. There is much more to the big numbers that come out of Philly than just blacks and young, progressive voters.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Please explain how your anecdotal evidence now is so much better than your prediction of Santorum's miraculous 20 point comeback in the last week.

[Keystone Phil]

Please explain how your anecdotal evidence now is so much better than your prediction of Santorum's miraculous 20 point comeback in the last week.

Because I never said that people were telling me that they would vote for him. I based it on Santorum's history of coming back and Casey's history of collapsing in big races.

I know you like being such a bitter asshole about all of this but it's not going to change Obama's problems here. But hey, Obama's going to sweep PA. No contest. He's going to win nationwide by eight points. It's all over. You guys don't have to do any work. We'll take care of it.

[RJ]

Because I never said that people were telling me that they would vote for him. I based it on Santorum's history of coming back and Casey's history of collapsing in big races.

Casey won that race by almost 18%. Any prediction that Santorum could have possibly won that race would be completely partisan in nature. I'm not so sure I'd be flaunting that logic to make my point.

I also have a hard time believing Obama is going to have problems in Philadelphia county. I suppose it will be interesting to compare his numbers to Kerry or Gore. My instincts tell me he'll do better than either of those 2.

[Keystone Phil]

Casey won that race by almost 18%. Any prediction that Santorum could have possibly won that race would be completely partisan in nature. I'm not so sure I'd be flaunting that logic to make my point.

Then you clearly don't know about Santorum's history of winning races he shouldn't have won but that's a different conversation and doesn't even compare to what we're discussing here.

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Uh...sure, he'll do better than Gore and Kerry...if you don't count the third of the city (Northeast Philadelphia) with your typical white, working class, ethnic Catholics. These are voters that Gore and Kerry won with little problem. We can't say the same for Obama. I've said this several times now and you've chosen to ignore it, almost as if you're saying that this demographic doesn't exist in the city.