What percentage of the vote will be for neither Obama or McCain?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It was interestingly exactly 1% not for Bush or Kerry in 2004.

I say 1.5-2%, Barr being the strongest among those.

[Gustaf]

I say 1-1.5%. 3rd party candidates rarely do well unless they are strong in their own right. General dissatisfaction with the major party nominees is seldom enough. Besides, I see this as becoming a fairly high-stakes election with a lot of attention which will marginalize the 3rd party candidates.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

2-3%

[Eraserhead]

It depends completely on whether Barr catches fire or not. It doesn't look like he will, as of now. The rest are just complete jokes.

[Reluctant Republican]

I’m going to stick my neck out a bit and say around two percent, most of that being disgruntled Paul supporters going for Barr or Baldwin.  This is a very optimistic prediction, however.

I think we’ll see Barr get the most votes, followed by Nader, Baldwin, and McKinney.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I’m going to stick my neck out a bit and say around two percent, most of that being disgruntled Paul supporters going for Barr or Baldwin.  This is a very optimistic prediction, however.

I think we’ll see Barr get the most votes, followed by Nader, Baldwin, and McKinney.

I think McKinney will finish ahead of Baldwin, but only because a few disaffected Hillary supporters will be unable to bring themselves to vote for Obama, and will vote for McKinney because she's a woman. Not many will, but enough will to put her ahead of Baldwin.

[Alcon]

Are we counting undervotes?  Not that most states did in 2004.

[Reluctant Republican]

I’m going to stick my neck out a bit and say around two percent, most of that being disgruntled Paul supporters going for Barr or Baldwin.  This is a very optimistic prediction, however.

I think we’ll see Barr get the most votes, followed by Nader, Baldwin, and McKinney.

I think McKinney will finish ahead of Baldwin, but only because a few disaffected Hillary supporters will be unable to bring themselves to vote for Obama, and will vote for McKinney because she's a woman. Not many will, but enough will to put her ahead of Baldwin.

You could be right. There seems to be many Paul supporters who would vote for Baldwin over Barr, but I'm not sure there's enough of them to help Baldwin edge out McKinney. I also think Baldwin will get more evangelical support then the party has in the past, given McCain’s somewhat strained relationship with them, so that could help him as well. However, I think you are right and that a good number of those Clinton supporters who absolutely refuse to support Obama will not support McCain either and will vote for McKinney over both men. I still think Baldwin will beat her, but its not completely farfetched to say she could perform better then many of us expect.

[Brandon H]

It depends on how many people who don't like McCain or Obama decide to stay home and not vote vs. how many show up and vote for someone else.

[Aizen]

It depends on how many people who don't like McCain or Obama decide to stay home and not vote vs. how many show up and vote for someone else.

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