Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Democratic Hawk]

The most hilarious thing is that McCain has eroded Obama's lead on the economy to 3-points. Ha, more of the failed same gaining ground on the economy. There's no hope whatsoever is there?

Dave

Quit your whining, it's getting old.

When I use words like "hilarious" and "ha" I can assure you I'm not whining . Wouldn't put McCain in charge of a hot-dog stand

[Keystone Phil]

Excellent

[Torie]

(3.6+4.2+X)/3=5
x=7.2

There is a trend! 

[Sbane]

So I wonder if the country has become more republican due to Palin. Haha that would be f'in hilarious.

[Aizen]

Gallup, like Rasmussen, is proving to be way too biased in McCain's favor. I guess the only poll we can trust is Diego Hotline.

[Rowan]

Gallup, like Rasmussen, is proving to be way too biased in McCain's favor. I guess the only poll we can trust is Diego Hotline.

I only trust ARG.

[Keystone Phil]

Gallup, like Rasmussen, is proving to be way too biased in McCain's favor. I guess the only poll we can trust is Diego Hotline.

You mean "I guess the only poll we can trust is the ones that show it tied or with Obama leading."

[Lief 🗽]

Gallup, like Rasmussen, is proving to be way too biased in McCain's favor. I guess the only poll we can trust is Diego Hotline.

You mean "I guess the only poll we can trust is the ones that show it tied or with Obama leading."

Do you not trust Rasmussen? Because I'd argue they're one of the better national pollsters.

[Keystone Phil]

Gallup, like Rasmussen, is proving to be way too biased in McCain's favor. I guess the only poll we can trust is Diego Hotline.

You mean "I guess the only poll we can trust is the ones that show it tied or with Obama leading."

Do you not trust Rasmussen? Because I'd argue they're one of the better national pollsters.

How the hell did I imply that I didn't trust Rasmussen in that statement above? Aizen was saying he didn't trust them because they are "biased" towards McCain.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Gallup, like Rasmussen, is proving to be way too biased in McCain's favor. I guess the only poll we can trust is Diego Hotline.

You mean "I guess the only poll we can trust is the ones that show it tied or with Obama leading."

Do you not trust Rasmussen? Because I'd argue they're one of the better national pollsters.

I would trust them a lot more if they fixed their weighting issue.

[© tweed]

Gallup, like Rasmussen, is proving to be way too biased in McCain's favor. I guess the only poll we can trust is Diego Hotline.

You mean "I guess the only poll we can trust is the ones that show it tied or with Obama leading."

Do you not trust Rasmussen? Because I'd argue they're one of the better national pollsters.

I would trust them a lot more if they fixed their weighting issue.

in the long run it's a good idea.  it just isn't great for bounce-times (such as the one at present).

[J. J.]

Well, I'm assuming that's the 10 point Carter bounce Gallup is referring to. Going from 29 to 39.

You're right that it's far from the same situation as this year, just pointing out that incumbent party candidates can still get big convention bounces and lead in the polls even when their party is insanely unpopular.

The thing is, neither Carter nor the Democrats were insanely unpopular at that point.  It was just a post GOP convention bounce versus the DNC bounce.

Not as unpopular as Bush, that's true. But low enough that it should've been obvious that Reagan was likely to win.

Gallup poll Carter approval ratings

Actually less popular than Bush is now, at least in terms of who'd the voter vote for.  After the RNC, it was Carter 29, Reagan 45.

Have we seen a poll of Bush v Obama? No.

Actually we have. Rasmussen did one in July. It had Obama 54%, Bush 34%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/obama_leads_bush_by_twenty_but_clinton_does_better_against_mccain

I think Bush's negatives were higher than Carter's then.

Let me get this straight.

1. Bush has a lower approval rating than Carter.
2. Bush would lose by a wider margin to the opposition candidate than Carter.
3. Therefore, Bush is more popular than Carter.

Please, tell me how you get to 3.

Your proposition #1 is wrong.  Bush, at the time of the poll was higher than Carter at the time of the poll.

[J. J.]

Today's numbers might be something as simple as a bad sample.

[Eraserhead]

Aizen makes jokes, people.

[Nym90]

WHY CAN'T MCCAIN GET ABOVE 50%?

WHY CAN'T MCCAIN COMPLETE THE SALE?

give her time, son, give her time

Heh....her

I'm guessing you're talking about Palin.  I want to know what you have to say about the fact that she once tried to have certain books banned in her town as mayor...  Seriously.  All you Palin freaks, answer to that. 

That was debunked the other day. False. She simply had a conversation about different beliefs with the librarian.

Yeah she had a "conversation" about banning books. No one was forcing anyone to do anything....yeah right.

The mafia had a conversation with me today about cement shoes and sleeping with the fishes. I shouldn't be worried, right?

[Democratic Hawk]

McCain Now Winning Majority of Independents [9 September, 2008]

Majority of independents back now prefer him over Obama, 52% to 37%

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110137/McCain-Now-Winning-Majority-Independents.aspx

Support for John McCain by Party ID Pre- and Post- GOP Convention

Pre (Aug. 29-31) / Post (Sep. 5-7)

Republicans: 90% / 89%

Moderate/Liberal Republicans: 81% / 80%
Conservative Republicans: 95% / 95%

Independents: 40% / 52%

Pure independents: 20% / 39%

Democrats: 9% / 14%

Liberal Democrats: 2% / 4%
Moderate Democrats: 11% / 16%
Conservative Democrats: 15% / 25%

Support for John McCain by Gender Pre- and Post- GOP Convention

Men: 46% / 52%
Women: 41% / 46%

Support for John McCain by Age Pre- and Post- GOP Convention

18 to 29 years: 34% / 33%
30 to 49 years: 46% / 51%
50 to 64 years: 43% / 50%
65 years and older: 45% / 52%

Support for John McCain by Region Pre- and Post- GOP Convention

East: 38% / 44%
Midwest: 39% / 46%
South: 49% / 58%
West: 43% / 44%

Dave

[Eraserhead]

9/11/08

McCain 48% (nc)

Obama 44% (+1)

[Person Man]

Hopefully, we are recovering from our little Tet Offensive.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Anybody know what Gallup's party weighting numbers are at this point?

[Rowan]

Gallup doesn't weight. They just spit out what they get, but I think it ends up being something like D+5 or so.

From the Gallup article:

"In addition, since Sept. 5 -- the first night after the Republican National Convention -- he has outpolled Obama in each of the last six individual night's polling. That consistent pattern in the night-to-night data suggests that McCain has a stable lead for now."

I agree, looks like a small McCain lead for now.

[J. J.]

9/11/08

McCain 48% (nc)

Obama 44% (+1)

Midweek poll.  If there is a lead, it's lower.  If this were next Monday or Tuesday, I'd be very happy.

[KeyKeeper]

If Sen. McCain can just hold the lead or stay tied until the first debate, I will be very happy.

[Lief 🗽]

If Sen. McCain can just hold the lead or stay tied until the first debate, I will be very happy.

He probably will, unless something happens. Generally a convention bounce persists (at least to a degree) for a few weeks after the convention.

[Brittain33]

Friday - September 12, 2008

McCain - 48% (nc)
Obama - 45% (+1)

These results, based on interviewing conducted Tuesday through Thursday, mark the first time since the Sept. 4-6 report that McCain does not have a statistically significant lead over Obama, and also reflect interviewing on Thursday that showed a very close race. It is unknown whether or not Thursday's results may have reflected any possible impact of Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin's widely publicized television interviews with Charles Gibson of ABC News, which began to be broadcast Thursday evening.

The story of the presidential race this year since early June has been a tendency for candidate support levels to return to near parity after one or the other candidate moves into a brief lead, so the days ahead will show whether or not this contest will once again settle back into a "too close to call" structure.

Obama and McCain were together Thursday at memorial services in New York at the site of the 9/11 terrorist attack, but both campaigns have now returned to hot and heavy campaigning, including ads directly attacking each other's positions on issues.

[Reds4]

About what I would expect for today. It will be interesting to see what gallup looks like come Monday or so, Obama does see a weekend bounce in it sometimes.