Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

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Love those hispanic numbers. If Obama is winning 62-63% of the hispanic vote he is most probably winning the election. Another milestone for him would be at least  41% of the white vote, which he is only 3% away from. Mccain is doing worse compared to Bush amongst whites than Obama is.

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WHY CAN'T MCCAIN GET ABOVE 50%?

WHY CAN'T MCCAIN COMPLETE THE SALE?

give her time, son, give her time

Heh....her

I'm guessing you're talking about Palin.  I want to know what you have to say about the fact that she once tried to have certain books banned in her town as mayor...  Seriously.  All you Palin freaks, answer to that. 

That was debunked the other day. False. She simply had a conversation about different beliefs with the librarian.

Yeah she had a "conversation" about banning books. No one was forcing anyone to do anything....yeah right.

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So I wonder if the country has become more republican due to Palin. Haha that would be f'in hilarious.

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Well looks like America wants 4 more years of Bush policies. Wonderful.

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Well looks like America wants 4 more years of Bush policies. Wonderful.

Well...if you want to call it that, sure.  I disagree; but then again, a good sized chunk of the American public disagrees as well.

But there is only one truth Ronnie. See the thing is that in some ways Mccain might be different. He will get rid of gitmo and he may veto a spending bill or two but where else is there a difference? He promises more tax cuts for the rich while he promises more war. How does that work out? Are we really going to become a debtor nation? Are we going to be begging for debt reductions in 50 years? Is that the path we want to go down? A lot of people think that we are in this mess because Bush is stupid/incompetent. That is not the case though. It is the policies he has pursued that has led to this mess. Low regulation led to Enron ,Worldcom and all those corporate shakeups in his first term. Low regulation led to a lowering of lending standards which led to the subprime crisis now. Is Mccain going to regulate industries more heavily? I don't know the answer to that but if he surrounds himself with the same people bush did, the answer would be no.

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He's been a deficit hawk his entire career and has never requested any type of wasteful spending. Yet, you believe that he will be the same big spender like Bush. Why? Do you just watch the Democrat talking points and believe them? 

This is an area where I am hopeful Mccain will be able to do something. I know of his distaste of pork barrel spending but I doubt he will be able to much about it. We need that line item veto.

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Yes, he proposes more tax cuts for all Americans. The rich pay the most taxes, so yes, they'll get the most back. I guess if you believe in redistributing the wealth, you'd disagree with this policy. Besides, with Democrat majorities, he won't be able to get this done. Obama has said he won't be rolling back the tax cuts either until the economy turns around, so it's moot.

My main problem here is giving away tax cuts in the middle of a war. I also think the chance of a war with Iran goes way up under a Mccain administration. Many who have conversed with him say he believes war is a way of solving things and he just may choose that route in Iran. Although he may do it more competently than Bush, how is he going to pay for it? How long is he planning on keeping troops in Iraq? How will we pay for that? At least Obama's tax cuts and tax increases add a little into the coffers while Mccain's tax cuts just increase the debt even more.

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What the country really needs is some middle class tax cuts to get this economy going again. I have nothing against tax cuts for the rich but the country just cannot afford it right now. Not when we love to go to war against people who didn't even attack us. If Mccain really invades Iran and lowers taxes on the rich, god help us all. Actually god help the poor because they are the ones who are going to get crushed by inflation. The rich will just put their money in gold and enjoy the good life. And the circle of life continues.

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It was Bush's fault that Enron and Worldcom went bankrupt? Those things were going on during Clinton's final years and broke a year after Bush took office. High regulation on industries will just hinder growth. There's a reason why other nations are outpacing us in economic growth.

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Stupidity lead to the current crisis. People making $50,000 a year shouldn't be buying $800,000 homes. Maybe put some warning in there, but it isn't Bush's fault that this stuff happened. Ban ARM's if we need to.
 

It wasn't specifically Bush's fault that Enron went bankrupt or the subprime crisis happened. I just feel that government needs to regulate industry in the sense that they need to make sure nothing untoward is occurring. We need more government oversight, not meddling with their actual operations. Oversight costs money on the part of the government but it does not hinder businesses unless they are doing something which is unethical. In the examples I provided something unethical/stunningly stupid was occurring. By your logic we should let these things occur and let the chips fall where they may. You are right in that sense because Enron did go bankrupt and all these banks that got involved in these retarded loans did get f'ed. But the question is wouldn't it be better if we had stopped these guys earlier? Deregulation is good to an extent but you need oversight or evil people will game the system which ultimately leads to everyone losing. I was just reading up about the energy crisis of 2001 in California and I was just thinking the whole time how a little oversight would have avoided that whole situation.

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Obama is finished.

I am a long way from saying that.

We do have a trend, however, McCain leads and, so far, his numbers are holding steady.  I expect a McCain increase over the next 2-4 days.  If it doesn't happen, it might be a sign the race is getting closer.

hahahahahaha

We'll see. 

I was expecting Obama to do better through yesterday.

JJ looks like 538 was right and you were wrong.   But we shall keep observing.

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Obama is finished.

I am a long way from saying that.

We do have a trend, however, McCain leads and, so far, his numbers are holding steady.  I expect a McCain increase over the next 2-4 days.  If it doesn't happen, it might be a sign the race is getting closer.

hahahahahaha

We'll see. 

I was expecting Obama to do better through yesterday.

JJ looks like 538 was right and you were wrong.   But we shall keep observing.

He should have; he normally gets a weekend bounce. 

So you expect movement for Mccain in a day or two eh? We will see.

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Just curious... are there any live focus groups rating the debate?  link?

CNN did it live.

Did you notice how the CNN "Indies" seemed to move exactly as the Democratic line did? I bet they weren't actual indies.

Or the indies liked Obama better on the issues. But no its a CONZPIRACCY!!!!

Btw Obama won amongst the Fox focus group as well.

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Just curious... are there any live focus groups rating the debate?  link?

CNN did it live.

Did you notice how the CNN "Indies" seemed to move exactly as the Democratic line did? I bet they weren't actual indies.

Or the indies liked Obama better on the issues. But no its a CONZPIRACCY!!!!

Btw Obama won amongst the Fox focus group as well.

The most recent polling put it at a tie.

I was talking specifically about the focus group. I watched the CNN focus group so I know the winner there and I heard even the Fox focus group thought Obama won. We will see what the overall public thought in the next few days. I think Mccain did better than many on this forum think.

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Just curious... are there any live focus groups rating the debate?  link?

CNN did it live.

Did you notice how the CNN "Indies" seemed to move exactly as the Democratic line did? I bet they weren't actual indies.

Or the indies liked Obama better on the issues. But no its a CONZPIRACCY!!!!

Btw Obama won amongst the Fox focus group as well.

The most recent polling put it at a tie.

I was talking specifically about the focus group. I watched the CNN focus group so I know the winner there and I heard even the Fox focus group thought Obama won. We will see what the overall public thought in the next few days. I think Mccain did better than many on this forum think.

That Luntz group on FoxNews contained no true undecided voters when the people who felt Obama won started spouting Obama talking points like "McCain looked just like George Bush tonight." If you've bought into that, you aren't an undecided voter.

I don't know about that. Maybe he didn't feel like that before but his opinion changed tonight? I am sure he has heard of the attack before and perhaps he saw that become true tonight? I didn't see it so I cannot comment further.

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No, StatesRights is exactly right. Those on the left vastly underestimate the absolute hatred that this election has generated for the media.

Many of us now regard the media as nothing more than political terrorists. They are vile scum, liars of the worst order.

There are consequences to everything. And the media has yet to see the consequences of their decision to become the "Pravda of Amerika."

The fallout from this will be massive.

Faux news is a million times worse than anything the rest of the media does. In fact many still keep up with the "maverick" theme when Mccain obviously isn't one. He might have been in 2000 but he basically agrees with everything Bush and the republicans say now. Yet the media have always been friendly to him. Of course Palin deserves all the scorn she has got, except for the stuff about her daughter. In any case that was mostly the blogs who did that. Palin's interview has shown she is incapable of serving as President and Vice president and the media called her on it. Now stop your whining.

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Again Obama is very close to that 50 point mark. If he falls below 48....that could mean trouble.

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Hmm wonder why Rasmussen and Gallup disagree so much. Change in party ID?

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It is interesting that the traditional and expanded LV models are now merging. Is that by accident or design, as Gallup struggles to make a prediction on the actual turnout model as we get close to the wire?

For some reason, the "traditional" turnout model was coming up with more likely voters than the "expanded" turnout model for a long time. That has now reversed and may help to explain the convergence.

Or as more and more "unlikely" voters come out and vote early, perhaps Gallup adjusts its model or maybe it is the people who have already voted who are causing the convergence.

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Why is the Gallup LV Traditional now only showing 65.2% of RV showing up.  That's below 1996 levels.

Despite this early voting hubbub, traditional indicators seem laggy to me.  Oregon ballot returns (a limited indicator but the best I know of) are down nearly 20% vs. the same day 2004.  Unless something odd is happening, I would be surprised if RVT isn't down a tick from '04.

That suggests demoralization. So is it downmarket blue collars who voted for Kerry who won't be voting, or cross conflicted Torie voters who voted Bush who won't be voting, or base GOP Bush voters who won't be voting, or Hispanics who voted more for Kerry than Bush who won't be voting?

We know the blacks and the punks will be voting in disproportionate numbers, as well as those liberal on both social and economic issues.

Considering the kinds of places that are losing the most voters in Oregon as compared to 2004, I would guess it is the GOP base that is not showing up in high numbers. I really think Bush did an excellent job of turning out his votes, something Obama seems to be doing better this year. Now since Oregon isn't a swing state we can't read too much into it, but if this pattern is repeated in all the other states, you guys are in for a long night.