Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Fuzzybigfoot]

I've been calculating the I-1053 results (2/3 congressional majority to raise taxes) by city/town, and so far I've only counted a handful of them (besides Seattle) which have rejected it:



Bellingham (Whatcom County): 53% no, 47% yes

Port Townsend (Jefferson County):  59.9% no, 40.1% yes

Olympia (Thurston County): 58.5% no, 41.5% yes



I still have to count the towns in San Juan County, which was the only county to reject I-1053. 

I still have to get the results from Bainbridge (Kitsap County) and Vanshon (King County) which often give Democrats 70% or 80% of the vote.

[Alcon]

Bainbridge Island voted 56% No on I-1053.  (52% Yes on I-1098, too.  Considering what comparably wealthy Seattle suburbs thought of income tax, I think we can basically say Bainbridge votes as part of Seattle now.)

Vashon isn't a city, it's unincorporated...I can get their results tomorrow.

The only incorporated place in San Juan County is Friday Harbor, which is more conservative than the county as a whole.  Friday Harbor voted 54% Yes on I-1053.  It failed the county because it lost soundly on Lopez Island.

I imagine a few other random highly liberal towns (at least a few of Langley, Index, Nespelem, Winthrop, Olympia, Lake Forest Park) also voted No on 1053.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Bainbridge Island voted 56% No on I-1053.  (52% Yes on I-1098, too.  Considering what comparably wealthy Seattle suburbs thought of income tax, I think we can basically say Bainbridge votes as part of Seattle now.)

Vashon isn't a city, it's unincorporated...I can get their results tomorrow.

The only incorporated place in San Juan County is Friday Harbor, which is more conservative than the county as a whole.  Friday Harbor voted 54% Yes on I-1053.  It failed the county because it lost soundly on Lopez Island.

I imagine a few other random highly liberal towns (at least a few of Langley, Index, Nespelem, Winthrop, Olympia, Lake Forest Park) also voted No on 1053.

I got Olympia already. 

[Torie]

Liquor will be interesting.  It did very well in the affluent exurbs.

Income tax is going to be fairly predictable.  Early preview:  Rich areas hated this.  It was in the 10%-20% range throughout the Medina/Clyde Hill area, parts of Bellevue, and places like Broadmoor.

Candy tax is also interesting.  That's one tax rich people were fine with; parts of Seattle almost passed the repeal.  Doesn't seem like they're necessarily doing a map of that one.

Haven't loked at the Eyman deal yet.

Rich liberals want a costly state, but are unwilling to tax themselves for it, eh?  I guess that makes them as useless as most groups that trim when it comes to public policy versus their self interest.

[bgwah]

Liquor will be interesting.  It did very well in the affluent exurbs.

Income tax is going to be fairly predictable.  Early preview:  Rich areas hated this.  It was in the 10%-20% range throughout the Medina/Clyde Hill area, parts of Bellevue, and places like Broadmoor.

Candy tax is also interesting.  That's one tax rich people were fine with; parts of Seattle almost passed the repeal.  Doesn't seem like they're necessarily doing a map of that one.

Haven't loked at the Eyman deal yet.

Rich liberals want a costly state, but are unwilling to tax themselves for it, eh?  I guess that makes them as useless as most groups that trim when it comes to public policy versus their self interest.

Broadmoor, Clyde Hill, and Medina are the most Republican parts of inner King County.

[Verily]

Liquor will be interesting.  It did very well in the affluent exurbs.

Income tax is going to be fairly predictable.  Early preview:  Rich areas hated this.  It was in the 10%-20% range throughout the Medina/Clyde Hill area, parts of Bellevue, and places like Broadmoor.

Candy tax is also interesting.  That's one tax rich people were fine with; parts of Seattle almost passed the repeal.  Doesn't seem like they're necessarily doing a map of that one.

Haven't loked at the Eyman deal yet.

Rich liberals want a costly state, but are unwilling to tax themselves for it, eh?  I guess that makes them as useless as most groups that trim when it comes to public policy versus their self interest.

Those are not liberal places he mentioned. Medina was McCain's strongest town in all of King County, IIRC.

[Alcon]

Liquor will be interesting.  It did very well in the affluent exurbs.

Income tax is going to be fairly predictable.  Early preview:  Rich areas hated this.  It was in the 10%-20% range throughout the Medina/Clyde Hill area, parts of Bellevue, and places like Broadmoor.

Candy tax is also interesting.  That's one tax rich people were fine with; parts of Seattle almost passed the repeal.  Doesn't seem like they're necessarily doing a map of that one.

Haven't loked at the Eyman deal yet.

Rich liberals want a costly state, but are unwilling to tax themselves for it, eh?  I guess that makes them as useless as most groups that trim when it comes to public policy versus their self interest.

Those are not liberal places he mentioned. Medina was McCain's strongest town in all of King County, IIRC.

Medina was Obama +8, not quite the worst (Clyde Hill +3, Black Diamond +1%, Hunts Point -13%) but these are all new converts.  These were solid Bush areas in '04, landslides in '00.  Still, though, you can't get <20% in even these towns without losing a substantial number of Democratic voters.  And indications from rich liberal condominium-land (Belltown, Downtown) suggest a good amount of bleeding there too.

[Stranger Than Fiction]

Patty Murray has agreed to head the DSCC in 2012.  I hope she blackmailed the leadership for something good in return for getting stuck with this a$$ed out job.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2013555225_pattymurrayretakestopfundraisingjobfordemocrats.html


Jim Brunner at The Seattle Times has commentary and a map of the Murray/Rossi race in the Puget Sound region.  It is a good illustration of the high level of polarization in Washington state that I mentioned before.  Brunner notes:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2013555798_patty_murrays_urban_stronghold.html

I have always wondered - What are those two Republican precincts around Sea-Tac?  Is one of them completely bounded by the Sea-Tac Airport?  What about that dark red sliver down by Kent near the Valley Fwy?

That 100% Democrat/Green precinct at the base of Lake Sammamish actually contains 2 or 3 housing units on the fringes of the state park.

[Alcon]

The Kent Valley one is Grandview (click for map), a low-vote precinct of houses in that weird stretch of undeveloped farmland near Kent.  It tends to have pretty wild swings (it voted for Obama) but seems to default conservative.  A lot of the people who live there are sporadic/unpredictable ballot returners.

The SeaTac-area one is Tukwila 11-1167, which is basically just Southcenter Mall.  Other than maybe a hotel/storage resident manager or two, I doubt anyone lives there legally.  The people who vote there are generally Republicans, but there are only a handful.  I'll figure out where they're registered some day.

The one below it is Kent 33-0592, which contains a huge industrial area, which probably has a few registrants, plus a small trailer park.  Rossi's win is actually an anomaly; it's traditionally a left-leaning precinct.

Overdale (the Lake Sammamish State Park precinct) is just the park, as far as I know.  I remember finding where the registrants were somehow before, and I think they were all in the park.  It's always funny to watch; invariably all Democratic votes except there's obviously one Green there.  Reichert got 1 vote out of the precinct this year, which I think is the first time any Republican who wasn't a Sam Reed managed that.

Edit: Overdale people seem to be registered at 2000, 2004 & 2006 NW Sammamish Rd in the park (don't know where those addresses are physically), and they all seem to be park rangers and their families.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Where can I find detailed precinct level results for King County?

[Alcon]

Where can I find detailed precinct level results for King County?

The canvass can be downloaded here, and there's a new data browser here apparently...which is spartan, but not bad if you don't want to open the CSV in Excel.

I'm also happy to help/look stuff up.

Other tools:

* Precinct finder via Google Maps (whole state)

* Precinct maps by LD (whole state)

* Old King County precincts by ID/list

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Where can I find detailed precinct level results for King County?

The canvass can be downloaded here, and there's a new data browser here apparently...which is spartan, but not bad if you don't want to open the CSV in Excel.

I'm also happy to help/look stuff up.

Other tools:

* Precinct finder via Google Maps (whole state)

* Precinct maps by LD (whole state)

* Old King County precincts by ID/list

The new data browser works alright for me and the CSV in excel looks awful. Thanks for the help! I looked all over their website for this and still couldn't find it for some reason. Oh and if you're interested in any Idaho data for whatever reason check here: http://www.sos.idaho.gov/elect/results.htm

They have some decently organized Excel files with precinct level results. I'm sure you already knew this but it's somewhat interesting for primaries at least.

[Stranger Than Fiction]

The Kent Valley one is Grandview (click for map), a low-vote precinct of houses in that weird stretch of undeveloped farmland near Kent.  It tends to have pretty wild swings (it voted for Obama) but seems to default conservative.  A lot of the people who live there are sporadic/unpredictable ballot returners.

The SeaTac-area one is Tukwila 11-1167, which is basically just Southcenter Mall.  Other than maybe a hotel/storage resident manager or two, I doubt anyone lives there legally.  The people who vote there are generally Republicans, but there are only a handful.  I'll figure out where they're registered some day.

The one below it is Kent 33-0592, which contains a huge industrial area, which probably has a few registrants, plus a small trailer park.  Rossi's win is actually an anomaly; it's traditionally a left-leaning precinct.

Overdale (the Lake Sammamish State Park precinct) is just the park, as far as I know.  I remember finding where the registrants were somehow before, and I think they were all in the park.  It's always funny to watch; invariably all Democratic votes except there's obviously one Green there.  Reichert got 1 vote out of the precinct this year, which I think is the first time any Republican who wasn't a Sam Reed managed that.

Edit: Overdale people seem to be registered at 2000, 2004 & 2006 NW Sammamish Rd in the park (don't know where those addresses are physically), and they all seem to be park rangers and their families.

Thx man you are a great resource as always!  The 3 housing units you described in Overdale  are located on Lake Sammamish State Park.  The King County Assessor maps those addresses to Washington State Park which makes sense.  There is usually a gate/barrier fronting said properties.

[bgwah]

So, Mike Hope is running for Snohomish County Executive. Would he be favored? He did pretty well in his re-election this year.

[RI]

So, Mike Hope is running for Snohomish County Executive. Would he be favored? He did pretty well in his re-election this year.

Hmm. Interesting. I kinda like Mike Hope. I've heard a lot of good things about him, and he's actually done a few things for people I know. Don't like his signs that blatantly rip off Obama's logo though.

[bgwah]

So, Mike Hope is running for Snohomish County Executive. Would he be favored? He did pretty well in his re-election this year.

Hmm. Interesting. I kinda like Mike Hope. I've heard a lot of good things about him, and he's actually done a few things for people I know. Don't like his signs that blatantly rip off Obama's logo though.

I've also seen Reardon mentioned as a possible gubernatorial candidate in 2012, though none of it was even remotely concrete (like the comments we've gotten from Sonntag, McKenna, and Inslee).

Inslee seems to be shaping up as the left's candidate for 2012. I don't have a problem with Inslee but I just can't get excited about him.

I would like to see Constantine run for Governor, but it may be a little soon... Still, Gary Locke became Governor after 3 years as Kingco Exec, so why not?

[Stranger Than Fiction]

So, Mike Hope is running for Snohomish County Executive. Would he be favored? He did pretty well in his re-election this year.

I personally can't think of anyone in Washington statewide politics as repulsive as Mike Hope.  The guy's a shill for the police unions.  Think he will keep his day job if he wins?  I'd rather have John Koster for county exec anyday.

[bgwah]

So, Mike Hope is running for Snohomish County Executive. Would he be favored? He did pretty well in his re-election this year.

I personally can't think of anyone in Washington statewide politics as repulsive as Mike Hope.  The guy's a shill for the police unions.  Think he will keep his day job if he wins?  I'd rather have John Koster for county exec anyday.

Hmm, interesting. Sounds like Reagan Dunn.

[Alcon]

Tentative CD results:

1st: Murray 56.16%, Rossi 43.84% (Murray +12.31%)
2nd: Murray 50.52%, Rossi 49.48% (Murray +1.03%)
3rd: Murray 47.49%, Rossi 52.51% (Rossi +5.03%)
4th: Murray 35.64%, Rossi 64.36% (Rossi +28.73%)
5th: Murray 41.43%, Rossi 58.57% (Rossi +17.14%)
6th: Murray 53.06%, Rossi 46.94% (Murray +6.11%)
7th: Murray 80.95%, Rossi 19.05% (Murray +61.90%)
8th: Murray 49.23%, Rossi 50.77% (Rossi +1.53%)
9th: Murray 52.80%, Rossi 47.20% (Murray +5.60%)

I only have a couple of hundred unallocated votes, so those are pretty final.

LD overview by Murray:

1st: 54.45%
2nd: 43.07%
3rd: 56.39%
4th: 38.02%
5th: 48.50%
6th: 45.01%
7th: 33.93%
8th: 36.13%
9th: 37.75%
10th: 48.02%
11th: 67.35%
12th: 36.78%
13th: 31.70% (Murray low)
14th: 36.37%
15th: 42.39%
16th: 36.84%
17th: 45.03%
18th: 40.03%
19th: 51.01%
20th: 40.19%
21st: 57.94%
22nd: 61.71%
23rd: 54.70%
24th: 52.49%
25th: 46.25%
26th: 46.11%
27th: 62.82%
28th: 51.54%
29th: 60.28%
30th: 52.82%
31st: 43.96%
32nd: 65.06%
33rd: 58.47%
34th: 74.68%
35th: 48.54%
36th: 80.39%
37th: 85.53%
38th: 56.28%
39th: 45.20%
40th: 57.10%
41st: 55.81%
42nd: 48.73%
43rd: 85.98% (Murray high)
44th: 48.07%
45th: 52.53%
46th: 80.11%
47th: 49.78%
48th: 55.84%
49th: 54.42%

About 500 votes unallocated there.

Only McCain/Murray towns were Hamilton (76 votes -McCain/Tie), Hatton (only 17 votes) and Wilkeson (175 votes and McCain's win was an odd anomaly.)

[Stranger Than Fiction]

LD overview by Murray:

1st: 54.45%
2nd: 43.07%
5th: 48.50%
20th: 40.19%
21st: 57.94%
22nd: 61.71%
23rd: 54.70%
24th: 52.49%
25th: 46.25%
26th: 46.11%
27th: 62.82%
28th: 51.54%
29th: 60.28%
30th: 52.82%
31st: 43.96%
32nd: 65.06%
33rd: 58.47%
34th: 74.68%
35th: 48.54%
36th: 80.39%
37th: 85.53%
38th: 56.28%
39th: 45.20%
40th: 57.10%
41st: 55.81%
42nd: 48.73%
43rd: 85.98% (Murray high)
44th: 48.07%
45th: 52.53%
46th: 80.11%
47th: 49.78%
48th: 55.84%

About 500 votes unallocated there.

Only McCain/Murray towns were Hamilton (76 votes -McCain/Tie), Hatton (only 17 votes) and Wilkeson (175 votes and McCain's win was an odd anomaly.)

Pierce County has really swung Republican.  I'm surprised Murray managed a majority in LD28 (Lakewood/Dupont/Steilacomb).  LD25 (Puyallup) continues to be a big sore spot.  Murray did ok in suburban King County, relatively speaking.

alcon - Thx for breaking out the votes.

[Alcon]

I know bgwah likes to look at how 2010 compared to 2004.  The Kerry vs. Murray comparison ran pretty damn strong everywhere.  The few variances seemed kind of arbitrary.  Overall, Murray did 0.48% worse than Kerry.

The biggest positive differences were LDs 3 (+5.92%), 31 (+2.73%), 19 (+2.38%), 13 (+2.06%) and 39 (+2.00%).  Respectively, those are Spokane's core; Eastern King/Pierce exurbs; the Coast; Kittitas-Grant-NW Yakima; and the Cascade Foothills from Stevens Pass northward.

The biggest negative differences were LDs 8 (-3.61%), 37 (-3.31%), 16 (-2.39%), 46 (-1.92%) and 29 (-1.77%).  Those are Richland-Kennewick; Southeastern Seattle; Walla Walla-Pasco; Northeastern Seattle; and South Tacoma.

If anything can find commonalities there, good luck.  John Kerry sure blew it in Spokane, that's for sure.

[bgwah]

Richland-Kennewick, huh? That's interesting, since it was by far Murray's greatest improvement over Gregoire's similarly sized 2008 victory (and alternatively, Spokane saw a noticeable 08-10 trend to Rossi)

*re-posts 08Gov-10Sen trend map*

[Alcon]

Merry Christmas from the Washington Thread.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Merry Christmas from the Washington Thread.

LOL  Sam Reed

[redcommander]

Sam Reed should take on Cantwell in 2012 with McKenna for governor. That would be the strongest ticket Washington Republicans have put up in quite a long time.