Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Torie]

Thanks Ogre. Very interesting. Can you put a percentage number on the swing that returned Washington from bordering on uber Dem to somewhat Dem as it was in the early 2000's?

[Ogre Mage]

Thanks Ogre. Very interesting. Can you put a percentage number on the swing that returned Washington from bordering on uber Dem to somewhat Dem as it was in the early 2000's?

Math is not my strong suit.  Alcon?

[Alcon]

Thanks Ogre. Very interesting. Can you put a percentage number on the swing that returned Washington from bordering on uber Dem to somewhat Dem as it was in the early 2000's?

Math is not my strong suit.  Alcon?

I'll try to figure out what you two mean when I'm functioning on more than two hours of sleep

[Meeker]

Pat Sullivan (D-Covington) has been elected House Majority Leader.

Frank Chopp was of course re-elected as Speaker.

[bgwah]

Pat Sullivan (D-Covington) has been elected House Majority Leader.

Frank Chopp was of course re-elected as Speaker.

So, he'll go from 10 years as Speaker to 12. He already held the record, I believe.

[bgwah]

http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2010/11/21/1730355/sen-cantwell-unlikely-to-face.html

lol. I hope Didier runs again... The results in Western Washington would be beautiful.

[redcommander]

http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2010/11/21/1730355/sen-cantwell-unlikely-to-face.html

lol. I hope Didier runs again... The results in Western Washington would be beautiful.

I hope Democrats have to face Reichert or McMorris Rodgers. They could at least make a close race.

[SvenssonRS]

http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2010/11/21/1730355/sen-cantwell-unlikely-to-face.html

lol. I hope Didier runs again... The results in Western Washington would be beautiful.

I hope Democrats have to face Reichert or McMorris Rodgers. They could at least make a close race.

I hope they have to face McKenna, gubernatorial rumors aside. That would make them cry.

[bgwah]

http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2010/11/21/1730355/sen-cantwell-unlikely-to-face.html

lol. I hope Didier runs again... The results in Western Washington would be beautiful.

I hope Democrats have to face Reichert or McMorris Rodgers. They could at least make a close race.

I hope they have to face McKenna, gubernatorial rumors aside. That would make them cry.

Oh goody, look who can post again!

[redcommander]

I hoped McKenna would have ran against Murray this cycle. She would have gone down against him. Plus Republicans could have gotten Reichert to run for governor in 2012, so it is not as if they wouldn't have had a competitive race without McKenna.

[Meeker]

McKenna lost quite a bit of his appeal to moderates and Democrats as a result of joining the healthcare lawsuit. A lot fewer people are buying his moderate schtick as were a year or so ago.

[Alcon]

Morrell -47.  Can't see that happening.

[Meeker]

Morrell -47.  Can't see that happening.

Nauseating.

LD-42 continues to teeter on the edge of a hand recount.

[Ogre Mage]

I hoped McKenna would have ran against Murray this cycle. She would have gone down against him. Plus Republicans could have gotten Reichert to run for governor in 2012, so it is not as if they wouldn't have had a competitive race without McKenna.

lol, sorry, Reichert would be a total joke as a gubernatorial candidate.  Even without his health issues, running for Congress is much less ... intellectually demanding than a governor's race.  In a contest that high profile, his shortcomings would be exposed very quickly.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2013195971_reichertsaysnotfamiliarwithglasssteagallact.html

Also, lol at D.S.'s notion we are "crying" at the thought of McKenna taking on Cantwell.  If he wants to try, bring it.  Y'all couldn't take down Patty even in a GOP wave year, so let's see you try and beat Maria in a Presidential election cycle.  It's not like there's a big record of success the WA GOP can point to.

It is still my prediction that McKenna will run for governor and the race will be closely contested.

[Meeker]

The State Senate race in LD-41 will go to a machine recount, but Randy Gordon is still screwed.

[bgwah]

The State Senate race in LD-41 will go to a machine recount, but Randy Gordon is still screwed.

At least it's a special election, so the Democrats will be able to get it back in 2012 instead having to wait for 2014.

[ottermax]

The State Senate race in LD-41 will go to a machine recount, but Randy Gordon is still screwed.

At least it's a special election, so the Democrats will be able to get it back in 2012 instead having to wait for 2014.

Still not looking forward to being represented by a Republican for two years... he's going to be tough to encourage higher ed. spending. bleh.

[Meeker]

Today was certification day, but several counties delayed the official meeting until tomorrow due to the snow. We still have final results though:

U.S. Senate
Patty Murray: 52.36%, Dino Rossi: 47.64%

U.S. House
WA-01 - Jay Inslee: 57.67%, James Watkins: 42.33%
WA-02 - Rick Larsen: 51.07%, John Koster: 48.93%
WA-03 - Jaime Herrera: 52.97%, Denny Heck: 47.03%
WA-04 - Doc Hastings: 67.64%, Jay Clough: 32.36%
WA-05 - Cathy McMorris Rodgers: 63.67%, Daryl Romeyn: 36.33%
WA-06 - Norm Dicks: 58.04%, Doug Cloud: 41.96%
WA-07 - Jim McDermott: 82.97%, Bob Jeffers-Schroder: 17.03%
WA-08 - Dave Reichert: 52.05%, Suzan DelBene: 47.95%
WA-09 - Adam Smith: 54.85%, Dick Muri: 45.15%

State Senate
Democrats: 27, Republicans: 22
(Republicans +4 - LD-06, LD-41, LD-45, LD-47)

State House
Democrats: 56, Republicans: 42
(Republicans +5 - LD-06 Pos. 2, LD-17 Pos. 2, LD-25 Pos. 2, LD-42 Pos. 2, LD-47 Pos. 1)

State Supreme Court
Charlie Wiggins: 50.34%, Richard Sanders: 49.66%

Ballot Measures
I-1053 - Yes: 63.75%, No: 36.25%
I-1082 - No: 59.09%, Yes: 40.91%
I-1098 - No: 64.15%, Yes: 35.85%
I-1100 - No: 53.43%, Yes: 46.57%
I-1105 - No: 65.04%, Yes: 34.96%
I-1107 - Yes: 60.44%, No: 39.56%
R-52 - No: 53.77%, Yes: 46.23%
SJR 8225 - Yes: 52.01%, No: 47.99%
ESHJR 4220 - Yes: 84.62%, No: 15.38%

None of the recounts are going to change anything. Thus ends Election 2010.

With that being finished, I'm going to disappear into the great beyond for a while. Not sure when I'll be back. Take care all.

[redcommander]

I hoped McKenna would have ran against Murray this cycle. She would have gone down against him. Plus Republicans could have gotten Reichert to run for governor in 2012, so it is not as if they wouldn't have had a competitive race without McKenna.

lol, sorry, Reichert would be a total joke as a gubernatorial candidate.  Even without his health issues, running for Congress is much less ... intellectually demanding than a governor's race.  In a contest that high profile, his shortcomings would be exposed very quickly.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2013195971_reichertsaysnotfamiliarwithglasssteagallact.html

Also, lol at D.S.'s notion we are "crying" at the thought of McKenna taking on Cantwell.  If he wants to try, bring it.  Y'all couldn't take down Patty even in a GOP wave year, so let's see you try and beat Maria in a Presidential election cycle.  It's not like there's a big record of success the WA GOP can point to.

It is still my prediction that McKenna will run for governor and the race will be closely contested.

Well maybe he isn't the best example, but the Republican bench in Washington is much stronger than say a place like California.

[bgwah]

I hoped McKenna would have ran against Murray this cycle. She would have gone down against him. Plus Republicans could have gotten Reichert to run for governor in 2012, so it is not as if they wouldn't have had a competitive race without McKenna.

lol, sorry, Reichert would be a total joke as a gubernatorial candidate.  Even without his health issues, running for Congress is much less ... intellectually demanding than a governor's race.  In a contest that high profile, his shortcomings would be exposed very quickly.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2013195971_reichertsaysnotfamiliarwithglasssteagallact.html

Also, lol at D.S.'s notion we are "crying" at the thought of McKenna taking on Cantwell.  If he wants to try, bring it.  Y'all couldn't take down Patty even in a GOP wave year, so let's see you try and beat Maria in a Presidential election cycle.  It's not like there's a big record of success the WA GOP can point to.

It is still my prediction that McKenna will run for governor and the race will be closely contested.

Well maybe he isn't the best example, but the Republican bench in Washington is much stronger than say a place like California.

Well, one is greater than zero, I guess.

[Ogre Mage]

I hoped McKenna would have ran against Murray this cycle. She would have gone down against him. Plus Republicans could have gotten Reichert to run for governor in 2012, so it is not as if they wouldn't have had a competitive race without McKenna.

lol, sorry, Reichert would be a total joke as a gubernatorial candidate.  Even without his health issues, running for Congress is much less ... intellectually demanding than a governor's race.  In a contest that high profile, his shortcomings would be exposed very quickly.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2013195971_reichertsaysnotfamiliarwithglasssteagallact.html

Also, lol at D.S.'s notion we are "crying" at the thought of McKenna taking on Cantwell.  If he wants to try, bring it.  Y'all couldn't take down Patty even in a GOP wave year, so let's see you try and beat Maria in a Presidential election cycle.  It's not like there's a big record of success the WA GOP can point to.

It is still my prediction that McKenna will run for governor and the race will be closely contested.

Well maybe he isn't the best example, but the Republican bench in Washington is much stronger than say a place like California.

Washington state is extremely polarized, a reality thrown into sharp relief in the recent Senate race.  There is a large, strongly conservative base here that hates the left and is utterly closed off to any sort of appeal from Democrats.  The problem for the GOP is that there is an even larger hard-left base (much of it in King County) equally closed off to overtures from Republicans.  This is a huge hurdle for Republicans trying to win statewide.  

McKenna recognizes correctly that running for an open governor's seat is not the same as challenging a two-term incumbent Democratic senator in Washington state.  And Cantwell is not damaged goods.

[Ogre Mage]

Patty Murray has agreed to head the DSCC in 2012.  I hope she blackmailed the leadership for something good in return for getting stuck with this a$$ed out job.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2013555225_pattymurrayretakestopfundraisingjobfordemocrats.html


Jim Brunner at The Seattle Times has commentary and a map of the Murray/Rossi race in the Puget Sound region.  It is a good illustration of the high level of polarization in Washington state that I mentioned before.  Brunner notes:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2013555798_patty_murrays_urban_stronghold.html

[Alcon]

Liquor will be interesting.  It did very well in the affluent exurbs.

Income tax is going to be fairly predictable.  Early preview:  Rich areas hated this.  It was in the 10%-20% range throughout the Medina/Clyde Hill area, parts of Bellevue, and places like Broadmoor.

Candy tax is also interesting.  That's one tax rich people were fine with; some trashier Seattle neighborhoods almost passed the repeal while Madison Valley/etc. were pretty solidly against it.  Doesn't seem like they're necessarily doing a map of that one.

Haven't loked at the Eyman deal yet.

[Alcon]

Oh, booze:



Income tax:



Links with larger PDFs:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/

[bgwah]

Liquor resembles D vs R more than I thought it would.