Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Free Palestine]

Will we be able to gerrymander Washington? Or do you guys use some sort of awful commission?

You support Democratic gerrymandering?

[Rowan]

Rossi vs. Cantwell!

[Ogre Mage]

Will we be able to gerrymander Washington? Or do you guys use some sort of awful commission?

Our congressional districts are drawn by a bipartisan commission.

[ottermax]

Will we be able to gerrymander Washington? Or do you guys use some sort of awful commission?

Our congressional districts are drawn by a bipartisan commission.

Which is a great thing, considering that last census I'm pretty sure the Republicans were in charge, and this year was very close unfortunately.

[Meeker]

Turnout is absurd. Both King and Snohomish increased their "Estimated Ballots On Hand To Be Processed" today despite each delivering a full day's worth of tabulations.

[Torie]

Will we be able to gerrymander Washington? Or do you guys use some sort of awful commission?

In my perfect world, a commission would draw all districts across the Fruited Plain, and try to create as many competitive districts as possible as its metric.

[bgwah]

I'm going to predict the legislature will end up being:
Senate: 27-22 D
House: 58-40 D

[Meeker]

Update on the competitive State Legislature races...

State Senate
LD-06: Baumgartner +8.16% (PICK-UP). Spokane suburbs swung really hard this year. Oh well.
LD-30: Eide +2.52%. Despite my dislike of Eide over her various driving-related crusades, if the trends hold she should win this.
LD-41: Litzow +3.28% (PICK-UP). Voters here must really like Litzow given his strong performance back in 2008 and this victory.
LD-44: Hobbs +0.66%. Hobbs has been gaining with every tabulation release. He's a crappy Democrat though and I wouldn't've minded to see him go.
LD-45: Hill +4.87% (PICK-UP). Hill raised a lot of money and was able to knock off Oemig in this swing district. Not much else to really say here; Oemig probably would've been able to survive any other year.
LD-47: Fain +10.96% (PICK-UP). Kauffman probably should've been able to do a little better here than she did, but this looks to be pretty much the same phenomenon as in LD-45.
LD-48: Tom +2.04%. This is a little surprising to me. I thought if Oemig was going to lose then Tom would've as well. I don't think Tom's challenger was quite as well funded.

Other new Senators not mentioned thus far: Steve Conway (LD-29), Maralyn Chase (LD-32), Sharon Nelson (LD-34), Nick Harper (LD-38), Doug Ericksen (LD-42), Scott White (LD-46)

State House
LD-01, Pos. 1: Stanford +4.48%. This one's in the bag.
LD-01, Pos. 2: Moscoso +0.06%. This is the first time Moscoso has lead in the counting and he's actually taken the lead in Snohomish county. Trends look good but this one is probably destined to go to a recount.
LD-06, Pos. 2: Ahern +4.50% (PICK-UP). This isn't the blowout it looked like it might be after the primary but we've still lost it.
LD-17, Pos. 1: Probst +6.52%. I really thought this one was gone. Pleasant surprise.
LD-17, Pos. 2: Harris +7.60% (PICK-UP). Meanwhile, I really thought we might have had a chance at holding this one given recent shenanigans by Harris. Oh well.
LD-19, Pos. 2: Blake +4.00%. I wonder if Sutinen's ballot label (Prefers Lower Taxes Party) helped him make this close or actually ended up costing him what could've been a victory. Regardless, Blake should be fine in the end.
LD-21, Pos. 2: Liias +7.52%. Liias survived what will probably be the closest scare of his electoral history in this seat.
LD-23, Pos. 1: Appleton +6.50%. I've never much cared for Appleton but congrats to her on the victory.
LD-24, Pos. 2: Tharinger +3.06%. Clallam still has quite a few ballot to count and Tharinger trails there... we may not be out of the woods here yet.
LD-25, Pos. 2: Morrell +0.22%. LOL Hans Zeiger. If the trend continues Morrell should survive here and maybe even without a recount.
LD-26, Pos. 2: Seaquist +3.92%. Seaquist is a grumpy old man but barring a reversal in ballot trends he'll be fine.
LD-28, Pos. 1: Kelley +5.10%. After a scare in the primary, Kelley kicked it into gear.
LD-28, Pos. 2: Green +2.60%. Green voted for the I-960 suspension and the tax bills. And yet she still looks headed to victory in this swingiest of swing districts. Hopefully she finishes what she started in 2000 and takes out Mike Carrell in two years.
LD-30, Pos. 2: Asay +3.5%. I'm surprised by the margin here but Asay will still win. Asay appears to be a legitimate moderate Republican so it'll be interested to see how she ends up voting.
LD-35, Pos. 1: Haigh +1.72%. Not sure why Haigh is performing so poorly; her opponent barely raised any money and she's been the incumbent here for quite some time. Looks liks she'll survive too though.
LD-35, Pos. 2: Finn +6.80%. To piggyback on the above, I would've expected Finn to have a closer margin than Haigh but apparently not. Finn's opponent was a real moron (though Haigh's wasn't much better).
LD-41, Pos. 1: Maxwell +5.14%. Folks seem to have taken a liking to Maxwell here. Cool.
LD-42, Pos. 1: Overstreet +7.00%. We might've been able to pick this one up any other year. Oh well.
LD-42, Pos. 2: Buys +2.08% (PICK-UP). Linville wrote the state budget. Awful position to be in if you're from a swing district like this one in a wave year. Whatcom still has around 1/3 of its ballots to count and if the statewide trend continues then maybe she can pull it off...
LD-44, Pos. 1: Dunshee +2.68%. I thought Hans was done for. His survival is great news for progressives.
LD-45, Pos. 1: Haistings +0.22% (PICK-UP). Goodman is one of the good guys (haha) and Haistings is a legitimate Rossi thug. Late ballot trends may push Goodman over the edge tomorrow or Monday. Keep your eye on this one.
LD-47, Pos. 1: Hargrove +14.20% (PICK-UP). Yeah...
LD-48, Pos. 1: Hunter +4.36%. It looked like on election night that Hunter might have been in some trouble but now it seems like he'll be fine.
LD-49, Pos. 2: Moeller +6.98%. Rumors of Moeller's demise appear to have been exaggerated, but he's still considerably underperforming what a Democrat in this seat should.

In intra-party defeats, J.T. Wilcox knocked off psuedo-Republican Tom Campbell for LD-02, Pos. 2. An unfortunate loss.

Other new House members not mentioned thus far: Andy Billig (LD-03, Pos. 1), Ann Rivers (LD-18, Pos. 1), Chris Reykdal (LD-22, Pos. 1), Laurie Jinkins (LD-27, Pos. 1), Connie Ladenburg (LD-29, Pos. 1), Cathy Dahlquist (LD-31, Pos. 1), Cindy Ryu (LD-32, Pos. 1), Joe Fitzgibbon (LD-34, Pos. 2), Kristine Lytton (LD-40, Pos. 1), David Frockt (LD-46, Pos. 1)

I cannot tell you how much pleasure I get out of not listing Shawn Bunney amongst the above.

[RI]

I've met Asay a few times as my dad's best friend has known her for years. She is definitely someone who is a moderate-to-mainstream conservative. She's definitely not a tea party-type conservative and seems to be a very nice and thoughtful person, but she is nevertheless a conservative, especially on fiscal matters.

[Хahar 🤔]

Will we be able to gerrymander Washington? Or do you guys use some sort of awful commission?

In my perfect world, a commission would draw all districts across the Fruited Plain, and try to create as many competitive districts as possible as its metric.

Ideally, it would create sensible districts rather than attempting to create competitive districts.

[Lief 🗽]

Will we be able to gerrymander Washington? Or do you guys use some sort of awful commission?

In my perfect world, a commission would draw all districts across the Fruited Plain, and try to create as many competitive districts as possible as its metric.

Well, of course. But as long as Republicans are going to gerrymander Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, might as well let the Democrats gerrymander a few states to keep it fair.

[Zarn]

Because Washington's primary laws are stupid, we will never get Rossi (R) vs Rossi (D). It's the only way he could have won. A Democrat, of course would have found tens of thousands of ballots marked for Rossi (D) in King County at a Starbucks.

[Torie]

Will we be able to gerrymander Washington? Or do you guys use some sort of awful commission?

In my perfect world, a commission would draw all districts across the Fruited Plain, and try to create as many competitive districts as possible as its metric.

Well, of course. But as long as Republicans are going to gerrymander Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, might as well let the Democrats gerrymander a few states to keep it fair.

Yes, of course. Have fun in Illinois. That is going to be really acrimonious, as some Dems are asked to dilute their seats down in the Chicago area. How will that shrill liberal in the north shore Chicago City district like having her district made more marginal I wonder? Sure the GOP will lose one downstate seat for sure, no matter what. I wonder how Muon2 thinks it will work out.

[Alcon]

To add to the insane turnout reports, Pierce County's ballot return rates are currently tracking closer to 2008 than 2006.

[Alcon]

I think chances are fairly good that Wiggins will oust Sanders in the final count.  I haven't been tracking the race, so I'm not sure who's been doing better with later ballots.  However, I do know they've largely been more Democratic and urban, and urban Democrats are probably much more likely to be Wiggins supporters.

A pure extrapolation based on current results/ballots remaining estimates give this insane result:

Sanders 1,043,186 (50.02%)
Wiggins 1,039,835 (49.98%)
Sanders +0.16%

I'll update this (and see how it changes versus the over/under) as new results come in.

Just for fun, here's U.S. Senate (the real result will probably be even more Democratic based on tracking):

Murray 1,508,018 (51.83%)
Rossi 1,401,282 (48.17%)
Murray +3.67%

Latest statewide turnout estimate: 2,512,080/3,601,152 (69.76%)

[Mercenary]

Sigh, that judicial race is disappointing then. Ugh Seattle...

[bgwah]

Roger Goodman is now leading by almost a full point!! I'm very pleased to see that.

Larsen is also ahead by about a point now... I'm pretty sure he's going to win now.

[Alcon]

[Alcon]

Update: Wiggins pulls ahead in the projection, Murray improves, projected turnout jumps above 70%.

Sanders 1,027,478 (49.95%)
Wiggins 1,029,470 (50.05%)
Wiggins +0.10%

Murray 1,605,340 (52.11%)
Rossi 1,475,289 (47.89%)
Murray +4.22%

This is looking like about Wiggins +1 and Murray +5, but that's just a guesstimate.

Latest statewide turnout estimate: 2,538,069/3,601,152 (70.48%)

[Meeker]

Roger Goodman is now leading by almost a full point!! I'm very pleased to see that.

Larsen is also ahead by about a point now... I'm pretty sure he's going to win now.

Linville is also picking up ground (now only down by 545) with 17,000 ballots still to count.

It's entirely possible that Republican gains in the State House could be limited to three seats (LD-06 Pos. 2, LD-17 Pos. 2 and LD-47 Pos. 1).

[feeblepizza]

I believe the race was called for Murray?

[bgwah]

Roger Goodman is now leading by almost a full point!! I'm very pleased to see that.

Larsen is also ahead by about a point now... I'm pretty sure he's going to win now.

Linville is also picking up ground (now only down by 545) with 17,000 ballots still to count.

It's entirely possible that Republican gains in the State House could be limited to three seats (LD-06 Pos. 2, LD-17 Pos. 2 and LD-47 Pos. 1).

Kinda interesting. I can understand why losses in the Senate are a bit more heavy---we're defending 2006 seats in 2010---but still, all we might lose in the House is Geoff Simpson and two open seats? lulz

If the GOP can't win the legislature this year, I think it's safe to say the Democrats will permanently control it for a long time, sort of like Massachusetts.

Furthermore, IIRC the 41st Senate seat we seemed to have just lost was a special election (due to Jarrett resigning) so that should be up again in two years instead of four.

[Alcon]

New updates from Kitsap, Pierce, Spokane and Whatcom.  Not much to note, other than that Spokane was rather "eh" for Murray and Wiggins continues to creep up, as does turnout.

Also, I'm not accounting for undervotes, which is why Murray and Rossi's raw votes keep going up and Sanders and Wiggins keep going down.

Sanders 1,022,686 (49.85%)
Wiggins 1,028,840 (50.15%)
Wiggins +0.30%

Murray 1,624,005 (52.04%)
Rossi 1,496,596 (47.96%)
Murray +4.08%

Estimated turnout: 2,543,198/3,601,152 (70.62%).

[Lunar]

Does anyone else kinda feel bad for Dino?  Three spirited campaigns...you almost have to wonder if he had staked out claims as being an unquestionable moderate on one major issue area, how well he would have done.

[Meeker]

Linville lost some ground today; down 715 with 12,000 left to count.

Moscoso and Morrell widened their leads (Moscoso is out of recount territory and Morrell is out of hand recount territory).