Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Dgov]

The children speak!

http://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/mock/Results.aspx

What's the Difference between Initiative B and Initiative 1098?  Do they both create some sort of Income tax and just different kinds, or what?

I think the lettered initiatives were just simplified versions of real initiatives they asked the young kids.  Before they asked them silly school uniform-type questions.  Those are never lettered initiatives on the ballot.

Hmm, so 1st-5th graders oppose an Income tax by more than 20 points . . .

[Alcon]

The children speak!

http://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/mock/Results.aspx

What's the Difference between Initiative B and Initiative 1098?  Do they both create some sort of Income tax and just different kinds, or what?

I think the lettered initiatives were just simplified versions of real initiatives they asked the young kids.  Before they asked them silly school uniform-type questions.  Those are never lettered initiatives on the ballot.

Hmm, so 1st-5th graders oppose an Income tax by more than 20 points . . .

Yeah, but who knows how they explained it to get such different results.

[King]

Two thirds vote requirements go against the fabric of democracy.  It pretty much demands extremism.

"NO" is an easier and far more powerful than "YES."  So, the minority party will always control the government by forcing inaction.  In fact, a minority party would probably be better off throwing the elections for a decade so the majority would get landslided out after the system fails from said inaction.  And that's when it would get dangerous.

[Holmes]

It also places total power in the hands of a select few, depending on how close the majority party is to the 2/3rd's. If the majority party only needs a vote or two to pass something, then someone can promise their vote by getting whatever they want, whenever they want passed as well. See: cretin Abel Maldonado.

[Meeker]

Super-unofficial data combing indicates the general electorate is about 3% more Democratic than the primary electorate thus far.

[bgwah]

I'm waiting until Monday to mail my ballot in. I don't like it when later returns lean Republican.

[Alcon]

Here's D-R-I ballot return statistics (%) for my LD:

2010 General: 48-21-4
2010 Primary: 52-23-4
2009 General: 50-22-4
2008 General: 43-18-4
2006 General: 52-22-4

Not a huge difference.

[Meeker]

Random fact: Thurston County has had a Republican Auditor since 1941.

[Meeker]

Not that it's a big county for anyone outside of the 3rd CD, but Cowlitz County turnout is through the roof - 49% as of today. Typically Cowlitz trails Thurston and runs about even with Clark but right now it's beating both by 7 or 8%.

[bgwah]

Random fact: Thurston County has had a Republican Auditor since 1941.

Random fact: Washington state has had a Democratic Auditor since 1933.

The 1992 Auditor race (Reed vs Sonntag) is a fun one, particularly the respective candidates very strong performances in their home counties (Thurston and Pierce).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The SOS is predicting turnout of 66%, or about 2.4 million voters. Highest midterm participation since 1970, apparently.

[Eraserhead]

Wow.

[bgwah]

State senate breakdown so far, with close ones underlined:
  1: Not up (D)
  2: Not up (R)
  3: Not up (D)
  4: Not up (R)
  5: Not up (R)
  6: Marr beaten by 20! R-pick up.
  7: R hold.
  8: R hold.
  9: Not up (R)
10: Not up (D)
11: Not up (D)
12: Not up (R)
13: R hold.
14: Not up (R)
15: R hold.
16: Not up (R)
17: Not up (R)
18: Not up (R)
19: Not up (D)
20: Not up (R)
21: D hold.
22: Not up (D)
23: Not up (D)
24: Not up (D)
25: Not up (D)
26: D hold.
27: Not up (D)
28: Not up (D)
29: D hold.
30: D hold.
31: R hold.
32: D hold.
33: D hold.
34: D hold.
35: D hold.
36: D hold.
37: D hold.
38: D hold.
39: Not up (R)
40: Not up (D)
41: Litzow defeats Gordon by over 5. R pick-up.
42: R hold.
43: D hold.
44: Schmit leading Hobbs by 0.2 or 52 votes. R pick-up.
45: Hill defeats Oemig by 7. R pick-up.
46: D hold.
47: Fain defeats Kauffman by 12. R pick-up.
48: Bennett defeats Tom by 0.6 or 67 votes.  R pick-up.
49: D hold.


A total of 6 pick-ups for the GOP, resulting in a 25-24 Democratic majority in the State Senate, with two races way too close to call so possibly a 27-22 Senate.

[bgwah]

Charlie Wiggins won Garfield County

He also got 43% in Columbia and 47% in Whitman and Asotin. Weird...

[bgwah]

STATE HOUSE:
  1-1: Open D, D leading by 2.8, D hold.
  1-2: Open D, R leading by 1.5, R pick-up.
  2-1: R hold.
  2-2: R hold.
  3-1: D hold.
  3-2: D hold.
  4-1: R hold.
  4-2: R hold.
  5-1: R hold.
  5-2: R hold.
  6-1: R hold.
  6-2: Ahern defeats Driscoll by 8. R pick-up.
  7-1: R hold.
  7-2: R hold.
  8-1: R hold
  8-2: R hold.
  9-1: R hold
  9-2: R hold.
10-1: R hold.
10-2: R hold.
11-1: D hold.
11-2: D hold.
12-1: R hold.
12-2: R hold.
13-1: R hold.
13-2: R hold.
14-1: R hold.
14-2: R hold.
15-1: R hold.
15-2: R hold.
16-1: R hold.
16-2: R hold.
17-1: D hold.
17-2: D open seat, R wins by 7.3. R pick-up.
18-1: R hold.
18-2: R hold.
19-1: D hold.
19-2: D hold.
20-1: R hold.
20-2: R hold.
21-1: D hold.
21-2: D hold.
22-1: D hold.
22-2: D hold.
23-1: D hold (leading by 4.9)
23-2: D hold.
24-1: D hold.
24-2: D hold. (leading by 3.7)
25-1: R hold.
25-2: Zeiger defeating Morrell by 0.6, R pick-up
26-1: R hold.
26-2: Seaquist (D-inc) leading by 2.9. D hold.
27-1: D hold.
27-2: D hold.
28-1: D hold (leading by 3.2)
28-2: Kelley (D-Inc) leading by 0.6. D hold.
29-1: D hold.
29-2: D hold.
30-1: D hold.
30-2: R hold (leading by 4.4)
31-1: R hold.
31-2: ID hold.
32-1: D hold.
32-2: D hold.
33-1: D hold.
33-2: D hold.
34-1: D hold.
34-2: D hold.
35-1: Haigh (D-Inc) leading by 0.6. D hold.
35-2: D hold.
36-1: D hold.
36-2: D hold.
37-1: D hold.
37-2: D hold.
38-1: D hold.
38-2: D hold.
39-1: D hold.
39-2: D hold.
40-1: D hold.
40-2: D hold.
41-1: Maxell (D-Inc) leading by 2.4. D hold.
41-2: D hold.
42-1: R hold.
42-2: Buys defeats Linville by 4.3. R pick-up.
43-1: D hold.
43-2: D hold.
44-1: Dunshee (D-Inc)  leads by 0.8, D hold.
44-2: R hold.
45-1: Haistings defeats Goodman by 2.4, R pick-up.
45-2: D hold.
46-1: D hold.
46-2: D hold.
47-1: Hargrove defeats Simpson by 15. R pick-up.
47-2: D hold.
48-1: Hunter (D-Inc) leads by 1.5, D hold.
48-2: D hold.
49-1: D hold.
49-2: D hold.

Republicans gain a total of 7 seats, for a 55-44 Democratic majority in the State House.

Taking too close to call seats ( margins) into account, there are 2 Republican wins and 7 Democratic wins. It isn't quite impossible but highly unlikely that the GOP will take the House.

[Meeker]

The Murray campaign is preparing for a recount.

[bgwah]

Zeiger's (R) lead is down to just 24 votes in the 25th, and Rodney Tom (D) has pulled ahead in the 48th!

Also, the Democrats losing in the 6th have increased a lot. Marr is at 45% and Driscoll at 48%... Probably won't win, but not the devastating margins we saw last night.

[fezzyfestoon]

Dino Rossi is just going to lose it someday...

[Alcon]

King County has revised their turnout expectations from 68% to 71% to reflect the number of ballots arrived so far.

Turnout has already hit 80% in Columbia and Lincoln counties.

[Meeker]

Running very contrary to recent history, the ballot returns yesterday were significantly more Democratic than the election day numbers across the state. Very surprising. I think Murray's going to be fine now whereas yesterday I was deeply concerned.

[Alcon]

Running very contrary to recent history, the ballot returns yesterday were significantly more Democratic than the election day numbers across the state. Very surprising. I think Murray's going to be fine now whereas yesterday I was deeply concerned.

Yeah -- I'm used to that in King (and Murray was up to like 67% in the newer returns there), but not for Pierce and especially Whatcom, which is usually way more conservative in later waves.

I'd be very surprised by a Rossi win at this point.  It also appears to be saving Larsen.

[Meeker]

Brian Baird has bought a house in Edmonds... which is at the heart of the 1st Congressional District... which is about to be vacated by Jay Inslee's run for Governor.

Draw your own conclusions.

[Alcon]

Brian Baird has bought a house in Edmonds... which is at the heart of the 1st Congressional District... which is about to be vacated by Jay Inslee's run for Governor.

Draw your own conclusions.

His new job is in Everett, I think.

[Meeker]

Rossi has conceded.

Update on State House and Senate races coming later tonight.

[Lief 🗽]

Will we be able to gerrymander Washington? Or do you guys use some sort of awful commission?