Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Stranger Than Fiction]

Quick and dirty State Leg round-up now that all the votes are in

State Senate
Safe D: 21st, 29th, 32nd, 33rd, 34th, 35th, 36th, 37th, 38th, 43rd, 46th
Likely D: 26th
Lean D: 48th
Toss-up: 30th, 41st, 44th
Lean R: 6th, 45th
Likely R: 47th
Safe R: 7th, 8th, 13th, 15th, 31st, 42nd

Projected Republican gains of 3-6 seats (7 needed for takeover)

State House
Safe D: 3rd #1, 3rd #2, 11th #1, 11th #2, 22nd #1, 22nd #2, 27th #1, 27th #2, 29th #1, 29th #2, 31st #2, 32nd #1, 32nd #2, 33rd #1, 33rd #2, 34th #1, 34th #2, 36th #1, 36th #2, 37th #1, 37th #2, 43rd #1, 43rd #2, 46th #1, 46th #2
Likely D: 19th #1, 19th #2, 21st #1, 23rd #2, 24th #1, 30th #1, 38th #2, 40th #1, 40th #2, 41st #2, 45th #2, 47th #2, 48th #1, 48th #2, 49th #1
Lean D: 21st #2, 23rd #1, 26th #2, 38th #1, 41st #1, 49th #2
Toss-up: 1st #1, 1st #2, 24th #2, 28th #1, 28th #2, 35th #1, 44th #1, 45th #1
Lean R: 17th #1, 35th #2, 42nd #2
Likely R: 6th #2, 17th #2, 25th #2, 30th #2, 42nd #1
Safe R: 2nd #1, 2nd #2, 4th #1, 4th #2, 5th #1, 5th #2, 6th #1, 7th #1, 7th #2, 8th #1, 8th #2, 9th #1, 9th #2, 10th #1, 10th #2, 12th #1, 12th #2, 13th #1, 13th #2, 14th #1, 14th #2, 15th #1, 15th #2, 16th #1, 16th #2, 18th #1, 18th #2, 20th #1, 20th #2, 25th #1, 26th #1, 31st #1, 39th #1, 39th #2, 44th #2, 47th #1

Projected Republican gains of 11-15 (14 needed for takeover)

So it looks like at this point the State House is in reach for the Republicans if most of the races fall their way. The Senate looks a little more difficult but still possible if everything falls into place. There's also the possibility of Sheldon flipping sides if the Republicans are only a seat away.

In looking at historical data, the WA State House was 65-32 D from 1993-1994 right before the GOP wave of 94.  I realize that the Democrats only gained dominance of all 6 seats in the Seattle Eastside House Districts #41, 45, 48 in 2008, so did the Dems have a substantial base in the Eastern Washington during the early 90s?

[Dgov]

In looking at historical data, the WA State House was 65-32 D from 1993-1994 right before the GOP wave of 94.  I realize that the Democrats only gained dominance of all 6 seats in the Seattle Eastside House Districts #41, 45, 48 in 2008, so did the Dems have a substantial base in the Eastern Washington during the early 90s?

Well, They held both the Congressional seats in Eastern Washington in 1994.  Jay Inslee was originally from there before carpetbagging to Seattle in 98.

[Stranger Than Fiction]

What caused Mercer Island to go Dem in the past few years or whatever?  I remember when it was comfortably GOP.

Probably the same aversion for social conservatism in moderate, affluent suburban areas in the state and around the country that swung many historically GOP areas Dem. The same can be observed throughout Bellevue/Kirkland/Redmond/Issaquah etc.

IIRC, Mercer Island had been voting Dem at the Governor and Presidential levels since 2000.

[bgwah]

Quick and dirty State Leg round-up now that all the votes are in

State Senate
Safe D: 21st, 29th, 32nd, 33rd, 34th, 35th, 36th, 37th, 38th, 43rd, 46th
Likely D: 26th
Lean D: 48th
Toss-up: 30th, 41st, 44th
Lean R: 6th, 45th
Likely R: 47th
Safe R: 7th, 8th, 13th, 15th, 31st, 42nd

Projected Republican gains of 3-6 seats (7 needed for takeover)

State House
Safe D: 3rd #1, 3rd #2, 11th #1, 11th #2, 22nd #1, 22nd #2, 27th #1, 27th #2, 29th #1, 29th #2, 31st #2, 32nd #1, 32nd #2, 33rd #1, 33rd #2, 34th #1, 34th #2, 36th #1, 36th #2, 37th #1, 37th #2, 43rd #1, 43rd #2, 46th #1, 46th #2
Likely D: 19th #1, 19th #2, 21st #1, 23rd #2, 24th #1, 30th #1, 38th #2, 40th #1, 40th #2, 41st #2, 45th #2, 47th #2, 48th #1, 48th #2, 49th #1
Lean D: 21st #2, 23rd #1, 26th #2, 38th #1, 41st #1, 49th #2
Toss-up: 1st #1, 1st #2, 24th #2, 28th #1, 28th #2, 35th #1, 44th #1, 45th #1
Lean R: 17th #1, 35th #2, 42nd #2
Likely R: 6th #2, 17th #2, 25th #2, 30th #2, 42nd #1
Safe R: 2nd #1, 2nd #2, 4th #1, 4th #2, 5th #1, 5th #2, 6th #1, 7th #1, 7th #2, 8th #1, 8th #2, 9th #1, 9th #2, 10th #1, 10th #2, 12th #1, 12th #2, 13th #1, 13th #2, 14th #1, 14th #2, 15th #1, 15th #2, 16th #1, 16th #2, 18th #1, 18th #2, 20th #1, 20th #2, 25th #1, 26th #1, 31st #1, 39th #1, 39th #2, 44th #2, 47th #1

Projected Republican gains of 11-15 (14 needed for takeover)

So it looks like at this point the State House is in reach for the Republicans if most of the races fall their way. The Senate looks a little more difficult but still possible if everything falls into place. There's also the possibility of Sheldon flipping sides if the Republicans are only a seat away.

In looking at historical data, the WA State House was 65-32 D from 1993-1994 right before the GOP wave of 94.  I realize that the Democrats only gained dominance of all 6 seats in the Seattle Eastside House Districts #41, 45, 48 in 2008, so did the Dems have a substantial base in the Eastern Washington during the early 90s?

I don't know what you could call a substantial base... but they definitely had more than they do today! Right now, the 3rd LD (central Spokane) is safe Democrat--the only such district in all of Eastern Washington. The 6th LD (Spokane and some of its suburbs) is a swing district... Other than that, the Republicans dominate just about everything in Eastern Washington now that Grant (an anomaly) is dead... Scanning through the 1992 election results, the Democrats did indeed have quite a few seats that they would never win today.

The Democrats also held seats in much of suburban/exurban Seattle that they don't even have today (such as the state senator positions from the 2nd and 5th legislative districts). I wish I had a decent map of the 1990s LDs to illustrate. Hmm.

As I've mentioned before, 1994 is often remembered as a landmark year in the death of the Democratic Party in the South (at least among white people). But it also was the beginning of the end of the Democratic Party in Eastern Washington. Eastern Washington went Republican and never went back. Likewise, I think 2006/2008 was probably the end of the GOP in a lot of the closer-in suburbs in the Seattle area. Depending on how big the GOP wave is this year, they will certainly gain some seats--but will they be permanent losses? I don't really think so--I suspect a lot of them would return to the Democrats in 2 to 4 years. We'll have to wait and see though.

What caused Mercer Island to go Dem in the past few years or whatever?  I remember when it was comfortably GOP.

Mercer Island has been Democratic for a while now... Generally, the closer to Seattle, the more Democratic. While we unfortunately don't have religious statistics, I think it is worth nothing that Mercer Island is probably the most Jewish city in the PNW.

[Stranger Than Fiction]

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I agree with you that any Dem losses in LDs #41, 45 and 48 this season should be temporary.
It is a matter of time before Democrats gains in LD #5 in its present form. Whatcom/Skagit/Island Co has been trending Dem in recent cycles, so LD #10 and #42 are opportunities for future Democrat gains.  

I'm more concerned about conservative blue collar districts such as LDs #25 (Puyallup), #28 (Lakewood/Steilacomb/Dupont), #30 (Federal Way) and #47 (Covington/Black Diamond/Kent). I believe the GOP is poised to make permanent inroads there.


On another note, any thoughts on why Carnation is so Democratic?

[bgwah]

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I agree with you that any Dem losses in LDs #41, 45 and 48 this season should be temporary.

I agree... 45 in particular is at risk, but the Democrats would get it back pretty quickly IMO.

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It is the 2nd fastest growing LD in the state, and will have to shrink by about 30,000 people or so IIRC...so it will definitely not exist in its present form in 2012. I don't really know who that will benefit--the slower growing districts to the west will likely cause the other Eastside disticts to expand into the 5th's territory. Or maybe they will try to cut out Maple Valley instead. But either way I agree that it will probably be competitive for Democrats eventually, but I think re-districting might keep it Republican for a bit longer.

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10, yeah, maybe. 42, I'm not sure. The Republicans might win all three seats there this year (which means defeating Democratic incumbent Rep. Linville). Linville actually lost her bid for re-election in 1994 and quickly came back in 1996, so maybe that will happen again. We'll have to see what happens with re-districting, but I think the 42nd will have to shrink a bit... And the ultra-Democratic precincts in Bellingham will probably be cut out first, so the district could definitely get more Republican in 2012.

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Maybe. State Senator Rasmussen actually lost her bid for re-election in 2008 so some of the area has been moving to the GOP at light speed, clearly. Maybe Alcon or Meeker could enlighten us on what changes re-districting could have? I think the Tacoma districts will have to expand a bit into the suburbs, which wouldn't be good for the Democrats (as the closer-in suburbs that are D-friendly could potentially be moved from competitive districts to safe D districts), but I'm not super familiar with the area.

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It's a popular town for Microsofties. Think Darcy Burner.

[Alcon]

Final result by CD
1st: 53.0-45.5 (D+7.5)
2nd: 47.0-51.7 (R+4.5)
3rd: 45.1-53.0 (R+7.9)
4th: 30.4-68.4 (R+37.9)
5th: 38.4-59.7 (R+21.3)
6th: 50.8-47.5 (D+3.3)
7th: 78.0-20.6 (D+57.5)
8th: 45.5-53.0 (R+7.5)
9th: 49.5-48.7 (D+0.7)
Total: 48.5-49.9 (R+1.3)

Don't really want to post the LDs at the moment, but the ones within ten points were:  1st, 5th, 10th, 19th, 23rd, 24th, 26th, 28th, 30th, 35th, 38th, 41st, 44th, 45th, 47th, 48th & 49th.

[Dgov]

Final result by CD
1st: 53.0-45.5 (D+7.5)
2nd: 47.0-51.7 (R+4.5)
3rd: 45.1-53.0 (R+7.9)
4th: 30.4-68.4 (R+37.9)
5th: 38.4-59.7 (R+21.3)
6th: 50.8-47.5 (D+3.3)
7th: 78.0-20.6 (D+57.5)
8th: 45.5-53.0 (R+7.5)
9th: 49.5-48.7 (D+0.7)
Total: 48.5-49.9 (R+1.3)

Don't really want to post the LDs at the moment, but the ones within ten points were:  1st, 5th, 10th, 19th, 23rd, 24th, 26th, 28th, 30th, 35th, 38th, 41st, 44th, 45th, 47th, 48th & 49th.

I didn't know the 9th was so close.  Is this a potential target come November?

[Torie]

Final result by CD
1st: 53.0-45.5 (D+7.5)
2nd: 47.0-51.7 (R+4.5)
3rd: 45.1-53.0 (R+7.9)
4th: 30.4-68.4 (R+37.9)
5th: 38.4-59.7 (R+21.3)
6th: 50.8-47.5 (D+3.3)
7th: 78.0-20.6 (D+57.5)
8th: 45.5-53.0 (R+7.5)
9th: 49.5-48.7 (D+0.7)
Total: 48.5-49.9 (R+1.3)

Don't really want to post the LDs at the moment, but the ones within ten points were:  1st, 5th, 10th, 19th, 23rd, 24th, 26th, 28th, 30th, 35th, 38th, 41st, 44th, 45th, 47th, 48th & 49th.

What is the aggregate partisan split of all these CD's in sum? I am curious to compare it to the Senate race numbers. These numbers suggest something more GOP than the Senate numbers.

[Meeker]

Final result by CD
1st: 53.0-45.5 (D+7.5)
2nd: 47.0-51.7 (R+4.5)
3rd: 45.1-53.0 (R+7.9)
4th: 30.4-68.4 (R+37.9)
5th: 38.4-59.7 (R+21.3)
6th: 50.8-47.5 (D+3.3)
7th: 78.0-20.6 (D+57.5)
8th: 45.5-53.0 (R+7.5)
9th: 49.5-48.7 (D+0.7)
Total: 48.5-49.9 (R+1.3)

Don't really want to post the LDs at the moment, but the ones within ten points were:  1st, 5th, 10th, 19th, 23rd, 24th, 26th, 28th, 30th, 35th, 38th, 41st, 44th, 45th, 47th, 48th & 49th.

What is the aggregate partisan split of all these CD's in sum? I am curious to compare it to the Senate race numbers. These numbers suggest something more GOP than the Senate numbers.

I'm pretty sure those are the Senate numbers.

Final result by CD
1st: 53.0-45.5 (D+7.5)
2nd: 47.0-51.7 (R+4.5)
3rd: 45.1-53.0 (R+7.9)
4th: 30.4-68.4 (R+37.9)
5th: 38.4-59.7 (R+21.3)
6th: 50.8-47.5 (D+3.3)
7th: 78.0-20.6 (D+57.5)
8th: 45.5-53.0 (R+7.5)
9th: 49.5-48.7 (D+0.7)
Total: 48.5-49.9 (R+1.3)

Don't really want to post the LDs at the moment, but the ones within ten points were:  1st, 5th, 10th, 19th, 23rd, 24th, 26th, 28th, 30th, 35th, 38th, 41st, 44th, 45th, 47th, 48th & 49th.

I didn't know the 9th was so close.  Is this a potential target come November?

Could've been but your nominee is a flop.

[bgwah]

Yes, those are the Senate numbers. There were no Republicans running in WA-7.

[Torie]

Thanks guys.

[Dgov]

Could've been but your nominee is a flop.

Well, that's the thing about Wave elections.  They tend to turn flops into Congressman.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here are the final House totals by party, so you're not (as) confused:

WA-01 - 55.85 D, 39.31 R, 4.25 I
WA-02 - 52.54 D, 47.46 R
WA-03 - 53.62 R, 42.57 D, 3.82 I
WA-04 - 65.27 R, 22.52 D, 6.96 "Tea", 3.03 C, 2.22 I
WA-05 - 62.53 R, 31.2 D, 6.26 C
WA-06 - 56.63 D, 43.37 R
WA-07 - 90.02 D, 9.98 I
WA-08 - 58.19 R, 39.55 D, 2.25 I
WA-09 - 51.24 D, 45.42 R, 3.34 G

[Meeker]

Could've been but your nominee is a flop.

Well, that's the thing about Wave elections.  They tend to turn flops into Congressman.

In some districts, sure. But in this district your nominee would've needed a wave and not being flop.

[Alcon]

Bottom of page two?  Killin' me, people.

New Elway Poll (lol) shows Murray leading 50%-41% (lol).

[Meeker]

Bottom of page two?  Killin' me, people.

New Elway Poll (lol) shows Murray leading 50%-41% (lol).

But it's the premier Washington State poll!

[Meeker]

Zeiger's writings are starting to get picked up by the local press. The third place finisher in the primary, Republican Steve Vermillion, has also endorsed Morrell over Zeiger. I'm moving 25th District #2 to Toss-up.

[bgwah]

...lol! If he wins they will have their very own Geoff Simpson.

[Alcon]

Elolway Poll on initiatives:

Initiative 1053 (restoring two-thirds majority)
Yes 48%
No 27%
Undecided 25%

Initiative 1098 (income tax) [!!!]
Yes 44%
No 42%
Undecided 14%

Initiative 1107 (repeal 'candy tax')
Yes 47%
No 38%
Undecided 15%

Initiative 1100 (liquor privatization)
Yes 45%
No 34%
Undecided 21%

Initiative 1105 (liquor privatization - wholesaler's version)
Yes 41%
No 33%
Undecided 26%
(like anyone knows which is which yet)

Initiative 1082 (worker's comp privatization)
Yes 31%
No 31%
Undecided 38%

Really, do you have any idea what these are about?  For real, I mean.
Yes 7%
Sorta 52%
Not really 21%
Confused Koreans just answering "yes" or "no" in hopes that this will be over soon 1%
Undecided 19%

[Alcon]

CNN/Opinion Research Center:

Registered voters (MoE +/-3%)
Murray 50%
Rossi 44%
Undecided 4%

Likely voters (MoE +/-3.5%)
Murray 53%
Rossi 44%
Undecided 2%

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/09/15/topstate2.pdf

[bgwah]

WA voters blame Republicans for economic situation by a 39-27 margin, and trust Democrats to fix them by a 43-35 margin, according to a Seattle Times/Spokesman Review-commissioned poll from Stuart Elway: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2012937028_poll19m.html

[SPC]

CNN/Opinion Research Center:

Registered voters (MoE +/-3%)
Murray 50%
Rossi 44%
Undecided 4%

Likely voters (MoE +/-3.5%)
Murray 53%
Rossi 44%
Undecided 2%

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/09/15/topstate2.pdf

I'm suspicious of any poll that shows the Democrats doing better with an enthusiasm gap.

[Alcon]

Elway:

Murray 49%
Rossi 41%

Independents and undecideds like Rossi's talking points better.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2012937028_poll19m.html

[Mercenary]

These two candidates are why I hate the top-two system, there is no option for me to vote for.
Anyone else feel they may just leave this one blank?