Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Alcon]

Are you gonna claim credit for Laurie coming out on top Ben?  Come on, be a man and just do it!  You know you're that good right?  

Of course you guys did F up in one way. A few of you should have voted  for the Pubbie so that he came in second. That way, the general election would be in the bag, since it appears the district is not a Pubbie friendly zone. But alas, it isn't in the bag with another Dem still alive and kicking, so now you need to do it all over again to put the Fey guy away. Do I have this right?

Well...aside from the ridiculous amounts of infused money and volunteers, sure, all me. (But it was my idea not to waste time pissing off North Tacoma, where people were already starting to tell us not to come to their houses anymore.)  Apparently the strategy of talking voters within an inch of their patience was effective.  We just should have switched to Ken Nichols in the past week   And, yes, we do, now with Republicans in play, while trying to minimize the "L" word.  Not an especially major asset in parts of the district, weirdly enough mostly the darkest blue on the map.

[RI]

Alcon, would it be possible to do precinct maps from some of the counties Didier did well in? Perhaps Benton (especially), Franklin, Adams, and maybe Grant?

Also, I would be quite interested in the results of the WA-02 primary. Koster won the more Democratic counties of Whatcom and Snohomish, but Larsen won the more Republican counties of Island and Skagit.

[bgwah]

Alcon, would it be possible to do precinct maps from some of the counties Didier did well in? Perhaps Benton (especially), Franklin, Adams, and maybe Grant?

Also, I would be quite interested in the results of the WA-02 primary. Koster won the more Democratic counties of Whatcom and Snohomish, but Larsen won the more Republican counties of Island and Skagit.

Kalb and McGinness certainly contributed to that in Whatcom! Koster got third place in a number of Bellingham precincts, and tied for fourth in one or two, hah.

[Alcon]

Alcon, would it be possible to do precinct maps from some of the counties Didier did well in? Perhaps Benton (especially), Franklin, Adams, and maybe Grant?

Also, I would be quite interested in the results of the WA-02 primary. Koster won the more Democratic counties of Whatcom and Snohomish, but Larsen won the more Republican counties of Island and Skagit.

At this point, I'd wager that the part of Snoho in WA-02 is probably more Republican than Skagit and quite possibly Island.  Whatcom was definitely unusually Republican in this primary, down the whole ballot, although with the caveat bgwah said.

[Meeker]

Quick and dirty State Leg round-up now that all the votes are in

State Senate
Safe D: 21st, 29th, 32nd, 33rd, 34th, 35th, 36th, 37th, 38th, 43rd, 46th
Likely D: 26th
Lean D: 48th
Toss-up: 30th, 41st, 44th
Lean R: 6th, 45th
Likely R: 47th
Safe R: 7th, 8th, 13th, 15th, 31st, 42nd

Projected Republican gains of 3-6 seats (7 needed for takeover)

State House
Safe D: 3rd #1, 3rd #2, 11th #1, 11th #2, 22nd #1, 22nd #2, 27th #1, 27th #2, 29th #1, 29th #2, 31st #2, 32nd #1, 32nd #2, 33rd #1, 33rd #2, 34th #1, 34th #2, 36th #1, 36th #2, 37th #1, 37th #2, 43rd #1, 43rd #2, 46th #1, 46th #2
Likely D: 19th #1, 19th #2, 21st #1, 23rd #2, 24th #1, 30th #1, 38th #2, 40th #1, 40th #2, 41st #2, 45th #2, 47th #2, 48th #1, 48th #2, 49th #1
Lean D: 21st #2, 23rd #1, 26th #2, 38th #1, 41st #1, 49th #2
Toss-up: 1st #1, 1st #2, 24th #2, 28th #1, 28th #2, 35th #1, 44th #1, 45th #1
Lean R: 17th #1, 35th #2, 42nd #2
Likely R: 6th #2, 17th #2, 25th #2, 30th #2, 42nd #1
Safe R: 2nd #1, 2nd #2, 4th #1, 4th #2, 5th #1, 5th #2, 6th #1, 7th #1, 7th #2, 8th #1, 8th #2, 9th #1, 9th #2, 10th #1, 10th #2, 12th #1, 12th #2, 13th #1, 13th #2, 14th #1, 14th #2, 15th #1, 15th #2, 16th #1, 16th #2, 18th #1, 18th #2, 20th #1, 20th #2, 25th #1, 26th #1, 31st #1, 39th #1, 39th #2, 44th #2, 47th #1

Projected Republican gains of 11-15 (14 needed for takeover)

So it looks like at this point the State House is in reach for the Republicans if most of the races fall their way. The Senate looks a little more difficult but still possible if everything falls into place. There's also the possibility of Sheldon flipping sides if the Republicans are only a seat away.

[Meeker]

I should add a disclaimer to the above that many of the endangered Democratic incumbents have mind-numbingly large amounts of money left to spend. For some extremes on the Senate side, Steve Hobbs in the 44th has 110k, Chris Marr in the 6th has 200k and Derek Kilmer in the 26th has more than 230k. For the House, John Driscoll in the 6th has 85k, Troy Kelley in 28th has 75k, Dawn Morrell in the 25th and John McCoy in the 38th each have 60k. Nearly all of the other endangered incumbents at least find themselves in a situation where they have more than enough to compete while their Republican opponent has at most 10-15k on hand. In some places the disparity is almost laughable - Fred Finn in the 35th has more than 25k left in the bank while his opponent has yet to file a PDC report.

So the big question here is whether the massive money dump coming from these incumbents in the next few weeks is going to really turn things around or whether the wave will make it all irrelevant. I guess we'll find out.

[bgwah]

Wow, how did the 6th LD Democrats get so much money?

[bgwah]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2012789159_monfort03m.html

Anyone else think Satterberg is going to run for AG in 2012?

[Meeker]

http://horsesass.org/?p=29502

I'm going to move the 25th District #2 to "Lean Republican"

[Meeker]

Final numbers for the federal races:

Senate
Patty Murray (D): 46.2%
Dino Rossi (R): 33.3%
Clint Didier (R): 12.8%
Paul Akers (R): 2.6%
Assorted others: 5.1%

Second Congressional District
John Koster (R): 42.2%
Rick Laren (D): 42.0%
Diana McGinness (D): 6.0%
John Carmack (R): 5.5%
Larry Kalb (D): 4.4%

Third Congressional District
Denny Heck (D): 31.4%
Jaime Herrera (R): 27.8%
David Hedrick (R): 13.7%
David Castillo (R): 12.1%
Cheryl Crist (D): 11.2%
Norma Jean Stevens (I): 3.8%

Eighth Congressional District
Dave Reichert (R): 47.2%
Suzan DelBene (D): 26.9%
Tom Cramer (D): 9.5%
Ernest Huber (R): 5.8%
Tim Dillon (R): 5.1%
Assorted others: 5.5%

Combined party percentages
Senate: 49.9% R, 48.5% D, 1.6% I
2nd CD: 52.4% D, 47.6% R
3rd CD: 53.6% R, 42.6% D, 3.8% I
8th CD: 58.2% R, 39.6% D, 2.3% I

[RI]

Final numbers for the federal races:

Senate
Patty Murray (D): 46.2%
Dino Rossi (R): 33.3%
Clint Didier (R): 12.8%
Paul Akers (R): 2.6%
Assorted others: 5.1%

Time for bgwah to update this page.

[Alcon]

I have precinct results for all counties but King and Kitsap, if those are of interest to anyone.

Major cities:

Bellingham: 64-34 D
Edmonds: 57-42 D
Everett: 54-44 D
Kennewick: 28-71 R
Lakewood: 48-50 R
Marysville: 45-54 R
Olympia: 70-29 D
Richland: 33-66 R
Spokane: 50-48 D
Spokane Valley: 38-60 R
Tacoma: 60-38 D
Vancouver: 50-48 D
Yakima: 37-62 R

Completed CDs:

3rd: 45-53 R
4th: 30-68 R
5th: 38-60 R

Swings seem especially nasty in Hispanic areas.  Toppenish was over 3-to-1 Obama; in this primary, it was a tie.

[Alcon]

Detailed city stats.

Dem % underperformed Obama in 224 of 243 (92.2%) reporting municipalities.  Of those, only two, Toledo (+9.0%) and Asotin (+1.4%), cast over 500 votes.

Verifying my hypothesis earlier, the towns with the biggest Dem % fall mostly have something in common:

1. Mattawa: -28.9%
2. Toppenish: -25.5%
3. Harrah: -23.5%
4. George: -21.3%
5. Granger: -21.2%
6. Grandview: -20.7%
7. Mabton: -19.6%
8. Sunnyside: -19.2%
9. Royal City: -18.4%
10. Darrington: -15.4%

In all cities in the top nine, Hispanics make up the plurality of the population.

Alcon, would it be possible to do precinct maps from some of the counties Didier did well in? Perhaps Benton (especially), Franklin, Adams, and maybe Grant?

Also, I would be quite interested in the results of the WA-02 primary. Koster won the more Democratic counties of Whatcom and Snohomish, but Larsen won the more Republican counties of Island and Skagit.

I can try, but I'm not sure I can find mapping software for my new computer...MapWindow doesn't jive with Vista and our school computers don't allow installers.

[Dgov]

Doesn't Washington have a more Conservative Hispanic population than the nation as a whole?  I mean, the most Hispanic district is the Heavily Republican 4th, which is 25% Hispanic, a full four times as Hispanic as the next best, the 9th.  Also, since this is a primary, some Liberal-Leaning Hispanics might not have showed up to vote in protest.

But given all that, this is very good news indeed.

[bgwah]

Doesn't Washington have a more Conservative Hispanic population than the nation as a whole?  I mean, the most Hispanic district is the Heavily Republican 4th, which is 25% Hispanic, a full four times as Hispanic as the next best, the 9th.  Also, since this is a primary, some Liberal-Leaning Hispanics might not have showed up to vote in protest.

But given all that, this is very good news indeed.

Not really. They've only established themselves to such a large degree in the recent past, and turnout among them is very low, for obvious reasons (immigrants can't vote, immigrants have more children who can't vote). The more established Hispanic towns tend to lean pretty heavily towards the Democrats, in the generals at least. I don't really know enough to comment on primaries--perhaps Alcon has 2008 primary data on hand?

[Meeker]

Was turnout in those towns also abnormally low? I'm just wondering whether people didn't show up or whether they switched sides.

[Vepres]

So, Cook has moved WA-02 into the "lean Democratic" category. Was that because of the primary results, or is there something else as well?

[bgwah]

So, Cook has moved WA-02 into the "lean Democratic" category. Was that because of the primary results, or is there something else as well?

I just wrote a big long post about WA-2, it might answer some of your questions, maybe. I think the primary was probably a factor (the total Democratic vote was still 52%, which is actually pretty close to what I would have expected), but there is of course recent polling, such as the poll thread where I posted this:

Republicans won most seats in Washington in 1994. Larsen came close to losing in 2002, as well.
So, wouldn't be surprising. No idea if this Koster guy is up to the task, of course.

Koster is certainly one of the better candidates the Republicans could have run, and isn't a sacrificial lamb like some of Larsen's other recent opponents. Koster has the possibility of a big win in the  suburban/rural Snohomish County portion of the district (where he is a county councilman), which may be the critical factor that just puts him over the top.

Enough time hasn't elapsed to come to any conclusions, but the last few elections seem to suggest that Island has moved fully into swing-county territory, and Skagit actually might be leaning towards the Democrats now. Maybe.

If Larsen wants to win, he'll need to do pretty decently in Everett and Bellingham to make up for the thrashing he will get in the rest of Snohomish and Whatcom counties.

I'm not really sure anybody actually likes Larsen that much... I was at the county convention, and Rick Larsen, a five-term incumbent, didn't even get endorsed. His campaign people were vicious monsters, to say the least, and were definitely driving people away IMO. It's what made me a supporter of McGinness & Kalb, at least.

Larsen did pathetically in my Bellingham precinct, getting something like 51%... To put that in perspective, the district was 87% Obama and 89% Approve on R-71. And it's not that Koster did well here, but that Larsen did horribly. Leftist fringe (the aforementioned McGinness and Kalb) candidates probably got over 30% of the total vote.

My gut is telling me Larsen will narrowly win still (a repeat of 2002 perhaps?), but I think this seat has definitely moved into toss-up territory, and I won't be surprised if Larsen loses.

Normally it wouldn't be a big deal, as it seems like the kind of district that would return to the Democrats fairly quickly after falling in a wave election... Especially with a pretty conservative guy like Koster (he is no Metcalf).

But re-districting will significantly alter the district--this is because it is likely we'll get a 10th seat here in Washington, and the 2nd district (along with the rest, really) will have to shrink quite a bit. I don't know exactly what they'll do, but Everett seems like the most likely portion of the district that may be cut out, and if that happens, the district gets significantly more Republican. I suppose it is also possible they would try to cut out suburban/rural portions of Snohomish County instead, or maybe something wacky like trying to cut out Island County, which may essentially break even or even make the district a little more Democratic, but this is all speculation on my part. Everett has been a key city in the district for a long time (basically its entire existence), so there may be historical reasons to try keeping it there.

Okay, I just wrote way more about WA-2 than anybody probably cared to read. Maybe RealisticIdealist will have something to add or correct, as he's a more permanent resident in the district than I am.

[Alcon]

King County municipalities (King parts only):

Algona: 51-46 DEM
Auburn: 48-50 REP
Beaux Arts Village: 54-46 DEM
Black Diamond: 39-60 REP
Bellevue: 53-46 DEM
Bothell: 56-43 DEM
Burien: 61-37 DEM
Carnation: 59-40 DEM
Clyde Hill: 37-62 REP
Covington: 40-58 REP
Des Moines: 55-43 DEM
Duvall: 41-57 REP
Enumclaw: 43-55 REP
Federal Way: 50-49 DEM
Hunts Point: 30-70 REP
Issaquah: 50-48 DEM
Kenmore: 57-41 DEM
Kent: 50-48 DEM
Kirkland: 55-44 DEM
Lake Forest Park: 66-32 DEM
Maple Valley: 39-59 REP
Medina: 39-60 REP
Mercer Island: 57-43 DEM
Milton: 50-47 DEM
Newcastle: 49-50 REP
Normandy Park: 51-48 DEM
North Bend: 46-52 REP
Pacific: 47-51 REP
Redmond: 54-44 DEM
Renton: 56-43 DEM
Sammamish: 44-55 REP
SeaTac: 57-41 DEM
Seattle: 79-19 DEM
Shoreline: 65-33 DEM
Skykomish: 62-38 DEM
Snoqualmie: 42-56 REP
Tukwila: 63-35 DEM
Woodinville: 49-49 REP
Yarrow Point: 41-58 REP

Bgwah's precinct was a lowly 52-46 Democratic.

[ottermax]

wow what a dramatic shift from the 2008 presidential election. The Eastside totally went back to their traditional tossup status, darn.

[SPC]

So, Cook has moved WA-02 into the "lean Democratic" category. Was that because of the primary results, or is there something else as well?

SUSA came out with a new poll there too.

[Alcon]

wow what a dramatic shift from the 2008 presidential election. The Eastside totally went back to their traditional tossup status, darn.

Not everything was completely nasty, but there were some massive snap-backs.  In fact, the more unusually strong his performance, the harder the hits this year.  One Snoqualmie Ridge precinct that voted moderately for Obama, but no other Democrats down the entire ticket, fell back to 73%-27% Republican.

That's an extreme example, though.  These are basically 2004 Gubernatorial type results, which is obviously pretty awful for Murray, but I'm not seeing evidence of some kind of Eastside revolt.

[muon2]

I just wrote a big long post about WA-2, it might answer some of your questions, maybe. I think the primary was probably a factor (the total Democratic vote was still 52%, which is actually pretty close to what I would have expected), but there is of course recent polling, such as the poll thread where I posted this:

But re-districting will significantly alter the district--this is because it is likely we'll get a 10th seat here in Washington, and the 2nd district (along with the rest, really) will have to shrink quite a bit. I don't know exactly what they'll do, but Everett seems like the most likely portion of the district that may be cut out, and if that happens, the district gets significantly more Republican. I suppose it is also possible they would try to cut out suburban/rural portions of Snohomish County instead, or maybe something wacky like trying to cut out Island County, which may essentially break even or even make the district a little more Democratic, but this is all speculation on my part. Everett has been a key city in the district for a long time (basically its entire existence), so there may be historical reasons to try keeping it there.

Okay, I just wrote way more about WA-2 than anybody probably cared to read. Maybe RealisticIdealist will have something to add or correct, as he's a more permanent resident in the district than I am.

WA has fairly extensive criteria for the redistricting commission to follow according to the SOS webpage.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Based on current estimates and a 10 CD map, it would seem that removing Everett and Mukilteo would be the easiest way for redraw CD-2. That is the most compact plan for the district and respects the road connections to Island County. If Everett were left in and Island were cut out then Monroe and the US 2 corridor would have to go out as well to balance population. That would be less convenient and compact, so there would have to be compelling reasons in the other districts to prefer that plan.

[Meeker]

I just wrote a big long post about WA-2, it might answer some of your questions, maybe. I think the primary was probably a factor (the total Democratic vote was still 52%, which is actually pretty close to what I would have expected), but there is of course recent polling, such as the poll thread where I posted this:

But re-districting will significantly alter the district--this is because it is likely we'll get a 10th seat here in Washington, and the 2nd district (along with the rest, really) will have to shrink quite a bit. I don't know exactly what they'll do, but Everett seems like the most likely portion of the district that may be cut out, and if that happens, the district gets significantly more Republican. I suppose it is also possible they would try to cut out suburban/rural portions of Snohomish County instead, or maybe something wacky like trying to cut out Island County, which may essentially break even or even make the district a little more Democratic, but this is all speculation on my part. Everett has been a key city in the district for a long time (basically its entire existence), so there may be historical reasons to try keeping it there.

Okay, I just wrote way more about WA-2 than anybody probably cared to read. Maybe RealisticIdealist will have something to add or correct, as he's a more permanent resident in the district than I am.

WA has fairly extensive criteria for the redistricting commission to follow according to the SOS webpage.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Based on current estimates and a 10 CD map, it would seem that removing Everett and Mukilteo would be the easiest way for redraw CD-2. That is the most compact plan for the district and respects the road connections to Island County. If Everett were left in and Island were cut out then Monroe and the US 2 corridor would have to go out as well to balance population. That would be less convenient and compact, so there would have to be compelling reasons in the other districts to prefer that plan.

The redistricting commission isn't quite as warm and fuzzy as the state law that sets out their guidelines would suggest. They take historical district lines and composition into serious consideration and on the occasions when they do attempt to stray significantly from past redistricting they often receive pretty forceful outside criticism that snaps them back in to line.

[Torie]

What caused Mercer Island to go Dem in the past few years or whatever?  I remember when it was comfortably GOP.