Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Ogre Mage]

LOL at Dino Rossi --

Rossi wins spot on CREW’s “Crooked Candidates of 2010"

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http://horsesass.org/?p=28556



Rossi claim of Murray unemployment flip flop... flops

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http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2012421934_rossi_claim_of_murray_flip_flo.html

[Ogre Mage]

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http://www.publicola.net/2010/07/26/murray-wins-cops-endorsement-maybe-those-earmarks-arent-such-a-bad-thing-after-all/


Rossi lied that Murray is third biggest earmarker in the Senate:

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http://www.publicola.net/2010/06/02/rossi-makes-issue-out-of-murrays-earmarks/

A database of congressional earmarks can be found here --
http://www.opensecrets.org/earmarks/index.php

[Ogre Mage]

Running against earmarks in a state that depends heavily on federal money (hello, Boeing) seems like a bad idea to me.

It strikes me as a strange attack as well and questionable at best in a general election.  It is not difficult for her to flip such an attack around and turn it into a strength, which is exactly what she has done in the below ad in which real Boeing workers praise Sen. Murray for saving their jobs:

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/07/murray-boeing-senate-washingto.html

[Ogre Mage]

Seeing how Rasmussen typically tends to inflate a candidate's numbers after they win the primary (See Rand Paul, Joe Sestak, Sharron Angle, Linda McMahon, Elaine Marshall, Lee Fisher, etc.), their new poll can't be good news for Rossi. If he's down by 4 points with a post-primary boost, I don't see how he's going to reverse that by election day.

Rossi is not going to win this race unless Murray makes significant mistakes in the general election.  He is in a precarious position.  To co-opt Clint Didier's support, he will have to move right, yet this will alienate him from the centrist voters he needs in areas like Bellevue/Redmond/Mercer Island.  If Didier's supporters sit out, he is done.  If centrist voters go to Murray (who has no comparable challenger pulling her to the far left) he is done. The perception of Rossi as shifty has already sunk into statewide consciousness after two failed runs for governor.  People will sense if he is dog whistling to the Tea Party.

http://www.publicola.net/2010/08/20/didier-wont-endorse-rossi-unless-rossi-meets-three-demands/

Furthermore, Murray has co-opted a large portion of Rossi's true base -- business -- through her appropriations work.  I suspect industries in Washington state do not much appreciate his railing against earmarks.

To win, Rossi will need to run up big wins in Clark and Spokane Counties (a margin of around 10%), pull off at least a narrow win in Pierce and hope turnout in King County is poor since he is going to get pounded there.  I don't see all this happening.

[Ogre Mage]

Ha Ha, Patty is all over Dino's Boeing Bungle like white on rice:

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http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2012958497_demsflayrossiforboeingtankercomment.html

[Ogre Mage]

Patty is up with an ad attacking Dino's faux pas comment about the Boeing tanker contract.  If we see Rossi's numbers in Snohomish County collapse in November, this may be part of the reason.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOHdN8sdnwc&feature=channel


KIRO has a news story about it --

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AY63n8Dg6UQ&feature=channel

[Ogre Mage]

Plus Dino Rossi comes across as an airhead to me....

In the editorial board interview with The Seattle Times, Dino Rossi did not understand the concept of "Net Neutrality."  Patty Murray did.  Click on the link and watch the 2:17 minute clip entitled "Net Neutrality."

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/flatpages/local/politics/editorialinterviewssenate2010.html

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lol

[Ogre Mage]

The Seattle Times has endorsed Sen. Murray.  I must admit I am slightly surprised, given the somewhat conservative bent of their editorial page and the fact they endorsed Rossi twice for governor.

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http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/editorials/2013112273_edit10murray.html

The Seattle PI hasn't endorsed yet but given the liberal bent of that paper it's a lock for Murray.  The Everett Herald has already endorsed Murray.

I think the major papers we haven't heard from yet are the PI, Tacoma News Tribune, The Olympian, The Columbian and The Spokane Spokesman Review.

[Ogre Mage]

I'm glad The Seattle Times skewered Rossi on the pathetic and unprepared answer he gave on Net Neutrality during their editorial board interview (see my post upthread):

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=76921.msg2672786#msg2672786

[Ogre Mage]

Patty Murray has been endorsed by the Spokane Spokesman-Review:

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2010/oct/24/editorial-on-balance-murray-is-better-choice-for/

It is not a good sign for Rossi that he could not win the endorsement of a conservative paper in a high population conservative area in a GOP favored political environment.

[Ogre Mage]

Patty Murray has been endorsed by the Spokane Spokesman-Review:

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2010/oct/24/editorial-on-balance-murray-is-better-choice-for/

It is not a good sign for Rossi that he could not win the endorsement of a conservative paper in a high population conservative area in a GOP favored political environment.

So did the Tri-City Herald.  A conservative paper from the most conservative part of the state.  Did they endorse Murray in 2004?

The Spokesman-Review endorsed George Nethercutt in 2004.  I don't know about the Tri-City Herald.

[Ogre Mage]

Will we be able to gerrymander Washington? Or do you guys use some sort of awful commission?

Our congressional districts are drawn by a bipartisan commission.

[Ogre Mage]

Does anyone else kinda feel bad for Dino?  Three spirited campaigns...you almost have to wonder if he had staked out claims as being an unquestionable moderate on one major issue area, how well he would have done.

Not in the slightest.  I am sick of seeing his face and watching his perpetual campaign of sleaze, hypocrisy, lies, anti-government babbling and thinly veiled social conservatism for the last 6 years.  The wave was the main thing which kept him competitive this time.  Otherwise Murray would have flattened him like a pancake.  He never staked out a moderate position because he is not a moderate.  

I wish Rossi well in his return to a real estate career.  Maybe we won't have him to kick around anymore.  

[Ogre Mage]

The AP called it for Larsen earlier tonight.

Linville trails by 530 but with only 3,800 left countywide she's done for.

WA Democrats survived the 2010 GOP wave much better than in 1994.  In 1994, all of the WA Dem Congresscritters fell except for Dicks and McDermott.  An 8-1 Democratic delegation was turned into a 7-2 GOP majority.  This time the only loss was the open seat in WA-03.  The losses in the state legislature have been much less severe also.  As bgwah noted, Rossi cratered in King County again.  Losing King 64-36 is basically impossible to overcome in a statewide race.

[Ogre Mage]

Hey, all you pinko WA commie libs. Does WA make this election a net plus for you, the way you humiliated the jack booted thugs in the promise land in a wave election for them outside this one particular sanctuary of sanity? Just asking. Cheers.

I like your Colleen Hanabusa picture.  I also like the fact that California may have resisted the GOP wave even more strongly than Washington.

[Ogre Mage]

And Wiggins is officially ahead by 3,491 votes.

If Wiggins can pull this off it portends a big change in the balance of power on the WA Supreme Court.  Gerry Alexander (a swing vote/moderate Republican) has to step down in 2011 because of the age limit law for judges; Gregoire will appoint his successor.  If both Sanders and Alexander are replaced by more liberal justices we will likely see significant changes in the Court's jurisprudence in the future. 

I've heard both Mary Kay Becker and Mary Yu floated as possible successors for Alexander.  Gregoire will have to be careful to select someone who can win election.

God, I wish we could get rid of Jim Johnson, too.  I dislike him even more than Sanders. 

[Ogre Mage]

Postscript from the Murray/Rossi race -- Danny Westneat writes that Murray lost men by 6 points but won women by 12, the largest gender gap of her electoral career:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/dannywestneat/2013389389_danny10.html


It jibes with a post I wrote on October 29 -- that Murray appeared to be honing in on women voters and that I suspected there was "Rossi fatigue" out there.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=127060.msg2701795#msg2701795

[Ogre Mage]

What is the composition so far of the next state legislature? Are Republicans in control of either of the bodies or are they still Democratic majorities?

Per The Olympian, there are three races in the state legislature which are still outstanding.  If the Democrats lose all three, they will maintain control of the Senate by a 27-22 margin and the House by 56-42.

http://www.theolympian.com/2010/11/12/1437858/18-votes-hand-recount-nears-for.html

[Ogre Mage]

Do you guys get any idea of what the generic swing is to the Pubbies in WA in this election, versus 2008?

The state legislature races are a good measure of grassroots movement.  The 2010 elections have ended four years of Democratic super-dominance and returned the body to the modest Democratic majority which existed prior to the 2006 elections.

2003-2004:  Senate R 25-24   House D 52-46
2005-2006:  Senate D 26-23   House D 56-42
2007-2008:  Senate D 32-17   House D 63-35
2009-2010:  Senate D 31-18   House D 64-34
2011-2012 (projected):  Senate 27-22   House D 56-42

The 2010 swing to the GOP was significant and not far off from the swing to the Dems in 2006.  The 2005-2006 and projected 2011-2012 numbers are about the partisan composition I would expect to see in Washington in a neutral political environment.  What happened in WA in 2010 was not a huge GOP wave, more like a course correction to the norm.

Historically, the GOP has been competitive in local district races.  However, they have continually failed in major statewide races -- a trend which continued this year.

[Ogre Mage]

Thanks Ogre. Very interesting. Can you put a percentage number on the swing that returned Washington from bordering on uber Dem to somewhat Dem as it was in the early 2000's?

Math is not my strong suit.  Alcon?

[Ogre Mage]

I hoped McKenna would have ran against Murray this cycle. She would have gone down against him. Plus Republicans could have gotten Reichert to run for governor in 2012, so it is not as if they wouldn't have had a competitive race without McKenna.

lol, sorry, Reichert would be a total joke as a gubernatorial candidate.  Even without his health issues, running for Congress is much less ... intellectually demanding than a governor's race.  In a contest that high profile, his shortcomings would be exposed very quickly.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2013195971_reichertsaysnotfamiliarwithglasssteagallact.html

Also, lol at D.S.'s notion we are "crying" at the thought of McKenna taking on Cantwell.  If he wants to try, bring it.  Y'all couldn't take down Patty even in a GOP wave year, so let's see you try and beat Maria in a Presidential election cycle.  It's not like there's a big record of success the WA GOP can point to.

It is still my prediction that McKenna will run for governor and the race will be closely contested.

[Ogre Mage]

I hoped McKenna would have ran against Murray this cycle. She would have gone down against him. Plus Republicans could have gotten Reichert to run for governor in 2012, so it is not as if they wouldn't have had a competitive race without McKenna.

lol, sorry, Reichert would be a total joke as a gubernatorial candidate.  Even without his health issues, running for Congress is much less ... intellectually demanding than a governor's race.  In a contest that high profile, his shortcomings would be exposed very quickly.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2013195971_reichertsaysnotfamiliarwithglasssteagallact.html

Also, lol at D.S.'s notion we are "crying" at the thought of McKenna taking on Cantwell.  If he wants to try, bring it.  Y'all couldn't take down Patty even in a GOP wave year, so let's see you try and beat Maria in a Presidential election cycle.  It's not like there's a big record of success the WA GOP can point to.

It is still my prediction that McKenna will run for governor and the race will be closely contested.

Well maybe he isn't the best example, but the Republican bench in Washington is much stronger than say a place like California.

Washington state is extremely polarized, a reality thrown into sharp relief in the recent Senate race.  There is a large, strongly conservative base here that hates the left and is utterly closed off to any sort of appeal from Democrats.  The problem for the GOP is that there is an even larger hard-left base (much of it in King County) equally closed off to overtures from Republicans.  This is a huge hurdle for Republicans trying to win statewide.  

McKenna recognizes correctly that running for an open governor's seat is not the same as challenging a two-term incumbent Democratic senator in Washington state.  And Cantwell is not damaged goods.

[Ogre Mage]

Patty Murray has agreed to head the DSCC in 2012.  I hope she blackmailed the leadership for something good in return for getting stuck with this a$$ed out job.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2013555225_pattymurrayretakestopfundraisingjobfordemocrats.html


Jim Brunner at The Seattle Times has commentary and a map of the Murray/Rossi race in the Puget Sound region.  It is a good illustration of the high level of polarization in Washington state that I mentioned before.  Brunner notes:

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http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2013555798_patty_murrays_urban_stronghold.html

[Ogre Mage]

Kudos to Sen. Murray -- she has crafted a video for Dan Savage's "It Gets Better" project:

http://www.itgetsbetter.org/video/entry/2595/

[Ogre Mage]

Sam Reed is retiring. Democratic sweep of the statewide offices?

Obama's coattails can only help Democrats in Washington.  The AG's race is the one I feel most confident about.  Reagan Dunn has good name ID because of his mother (Jennifer Dunn) but he has a reputation for being lazy and Bob Ferguson is anything but.  Maybe Dunn will seriously up his game, but I doubt it.

Not so sure about SoS.  Kim Wyman is a solid candidate, we'll see what evolves on the Democratic side.  Interestingly, the GOP has controlled the SoS Office in Washington state since the mid 1960s -- over 45 years! 

The governor's race will likely be one of the most closely watched in the country.  I think it would be unwise to speculate at this point.