Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Alcon]

Why did this video of Sarah Sanoy-Wright (losing independent candidate in the 11th LD) not go viral?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2-I5Mn2b3M

WHY

[Marokai Backbeat]

That was one of the best things I've ever seen. I just subscribed and I encourage all freedom lovers here to do so as well.

[Ogre Mage]

Does anyone else kinda feel bad for Dino?  Three spirited campaigns...you almost have to wonder if he had staked out claims as being an unquestionable moderate on one major issue area, how well he would have done.

Not in the slightest.  I am sick of seeing his face and watching his perpetual campaign of sleaze, hypocrisy, lies, anti-government babbling and thinly veiled social conservatism for the last 6 years.  The wave was the main thing which kept him competitive this time.  Otherwise Murray would have flattened him like a pancake.  He never staked out a moderate position because he is not a moderate.  

I wish Rossi well in his return to a real estate career.  Maybe we won't have him to kick around anymore.  

[CultureKing]

Does anyone else kinda feel bad for Dino?  Three spirited campaigns...you almost have to wonder if he had staked out claims as being an unquestionable moderate on one major issue area, how well he would have done.

Not in the slightest.  I am sick of seeing his face and watching his perpetual campaign of sleaze, hypocrisy, lies, anti-government babbling and thinly veiled social conservatism for the last 6 years.  The wave was the main thing which kept him competitive this time.  Otherwise Murray would have flattened him like a pancake.  He never staked out a moderate position because he is not a moderate.  

I wish Rossi well in his return to a real estate career.  Maybe we won't have him to kick around anymore.  

We won't be rid of Dino until he gets taken out by 15%+. These close contests simply keep his hopes up. Someday though he will fade away, we just need to give him a bigger smack of reality.

[Meeker]

New updates from Kitsap, Pierce, Spokane and Whatcom.  Not much to note, other than that Spokane was rather "eh" for Murray and Wiggins continues to creep up, as does turnout.

Also, I'm not accounting for undervotes, which is why Murray and Rossi's raw votes keep going up and Sanders and Wiggins keep going down.

Sanders 1,022,686 (49.85%)
Wiggins 1,028,840 (50.15%)
Wiggins +0.30%

Murray 1,624,005 (52.04%)
Rossi 1,496,596 (47.96%)
Murray +4.08%

Estimated turnout: 2,543,198/3,601,152 (70.62%).

Is there anyway you could adjust the Sanders/Wiggins model to account for the undervote? Given that it's so large, I suspect taking that into account may be crucial in getting an accurate projection.

[Alcon]

Yeah, I can assume the undervote tracks in those counties as it has previously.  Let me work on that.

It would also be helpful if anyone has election night totals by county

[Alcon]

I don't know why I didn't think of this before...I'll blame it on long-term sleep deprivation.

Okay, so this race is insanely close.  I've created three different totals based on how many ballots King County has left.

Using the remaining ballot totals King County reports on its web site minus its counted total (178,700):

Sanders 968,116 (50.04%)
Wiggins 966,567 (49.96%)
Margin: Sanders +1,549 (+0.08%)

Using the remaining ballot totals King County is reporting to the SoS (195,000):

Sanders 973,221 (49.99%)
Wiggins 973,548 (50.01%)
Margin: Wiggins +327 (+0.02%)

Using the remaining ballot totals King County reported to callers-in on Friday night (204,757):

Sanders 976,277 (49.96%)
Wiggins 977,726 (50.04%)
Margin: Wiggins +1,450 (+0.07%)

Adding to this that late ballots seem to be breaking for Wiggins in King, and I'd say he's favored, but it totally depends on (historically inaccurate) ballot estimates and batch performance volatility.  Fun times!

[Free Palestine]

Isn't Richard Sanders a member of the Libertarian Party?

[Meeker]

I wonder if this goes to a recount how much time and money the campaigns and parties will spend on the operation.

[Alcon]

Isn't Richard Sanders a member of the Libertarian Party?

Formerly, he can't be anymore.

[Free Palestine]

Isn't Richard Sanders a member of the Libertarian Party?

Formerly, he can't be anymore.

The LP website has him listed as a contributing member.

[tpfkaw]

The LP allows people to be members while being registered to or even holding office as a member of another party.  For example, IIRC Ron Paul is still a member.  That probably has to do with the fact that the criteria for "membership" is to send them $50 . . .

[Alcon]

Isn't Richard Sanders a member of the Libertarian Party?

Formerly, he can't be anymore.

The LP website has him listed as a contributing member.

Judges are barred from partisan political activities and I assume the same is true of SC justices.

[Alcon]

I don't know why I didn't think of this before...I'll blame it on long-term sleep deprivation.

Okay, so this race is insanely close.  I've created three different totals based on how many ballots King County has left.

Using the remaining ballot totals King County reports on its web site minus its counted total (178,700):

Sanders 968,116 (50.04%)
Wiggins 966,567 (49.96%)
Margin: Sanders +1,549 (+0.08%)

Using the remaining ballot totals King County is reporting to the SoS (195,000):

Sanders 973,221 (49.99%)
Wiggins 973,548 (50.01%)
Margin: Wiggins +327 (+0.02%)

Using the remaining ballot totals King County reported to callers-in on Friday night (204,757):

Sanders 976,277 (49.96%)
Wiggins 977,726 (50.04%)
Margin: Wiggins +1,450 (+0.07%)

Adding to this that late ballots seem to be breaking for Wiggins in King, and I'd say he's favored, but it totally depends on (historically inaccurate) ballot estimates and batch performance volatility.  Fun times!

Update:

Sanders 969,349 (49.88%)
Wiggins 974,329 (50.12%)
Margin: Wiggins +4,980 (+0.26%)

Murray 1,301,798 (52.20%)
Rossi 1,192,053 (47.80%)
Margin: Murray +109,745 (+4.40%)

I think indications are good that Sanders is probably screwed.

Turnout estimate: 2,553,428/3,601,152 (70.91%)

[Meeker]

State Senate
LD-41: Litzow +1.52 (Is this race back from the dead? The margin's narrowing)
LD-44: Hobbs +1.22

LD-30 (Eide) and LD-48 (Tom) are safely Democratic at this point. LD-06 (Marr), LD-45 (Oemig) and LD-47 (Kauffman) are still gone. So it looks like Republican gains of +4 right now with the outside possibility of +3.

State House
LD-01, Pos. 2: Moscoso +1.50
LD-25, Pos. 2: Morrell +0.18 (Back in hand recount territory)
LD-30, Pos. 2: Asay +1.48 (Margin keeps narrowing - possible pick-up?)
LD-35, Pos. 1: Haigh +1.76
LD-45, Pos. 1: Goodman +1.94

Whatcom hasn't reported for today so no update on LD-42, Pos. 2 yet. I'm pretty doubtful that Linville will pull it out at this point though. Other losses are still LD-06, Pos. 2 (Ahern); LD-17, Pos. 2 (Open); LD-47, Pos. 1 (Simpson). Republican gains of +4 right now but it could be as high as +5 or as low as +2 (if Asay ends up losing in the 30th).

[Meeker]

Also, the 8th CD is going to end up much closer than the 3rd CD. DelBene is almost winning King County.

[Alcon]

After today's updates from Skagit, Snohomish and Whatcom, I think we can probably stick a fork in John Koster.

Tonight's final extrapolation:

Sanders 969,067 (49.86%)
Wiggins 974,482 (50.14%)
Margin: Wiggins +5,415 (+0.28%)

Murray 1,302,275 (52.21%)
Rossi 1,192,035 (47.79%)
Margin: Murray +110,241 (+4.42%)

Turnout estimate: 2,553,976/3,601,152 (70.92%)

Tomorrow, new numbers from: Benton, Clallam, Clark, Grant, King, Kitsap, Pierce, Skagit, Whatcom and Yakima, plus Cowlitz which claims to be done.

[Meeker]

The AP called it for Larsen earlier tonight.

Linville trails by 530 but with only 3,800 left countywide she's done for.

[bgwah]

Too bad about Linville...

Reichert got 52.78% in 2008. He's down to 52.79% with presumably tens of thousands of ballots left to count in the 8th, so he'll almost certainly fall below his 2008 number. A pretty poor performance...

[Meeker]

I also reckon DelBene's earned the right to take him on again.

[bgwah]

I also reckon DelBene's earned the right to take him on again.

...If she's willing to drop a few more million bucks of her own, maybe she'll do it. I'm also excited to see how redistricting will change the 8th. I think there's some potential it will become significantly less Republican if we get the 10th district.

I also noticed Rossi has fallen below his 2008 numbers in King County. Hopefully it will be safely into the >70 Obama territory by 2012.

[Ogre Mage]

The AP called it for Larsen earlier tonight.

Linville trails by 530 but with only 3,800 left countywide she's done for.

WA Democrats survived the 2010 GOP wave much better than in 1994.  In 1994, all of the WA Dem Congresscritters fell except for Dicks and McDermott.  An 8-1 Democratic delegation was turned into a 7-2 GOP majority.  This time the only loss was the open seat in WA-03.  The losses in the state legislature have been much less severe also.  As bgwah noted, Rossi cratered in King County again.  Losing King 64-36 is basically impossible to overcome in a statewide race.

[Torie]

Hey, all you pinko WA commie libs. Does WA make this election a net plus for you, the way you humiliated the jack booted thugs in the promise land in a wave election for them outside this one particular sanctuary of sanity? Just asking. Cheers.

[Dgov]

Turnout estimate: 2,553,428/3,601,152 (70.91%)

Wow.  So that means that almost as many people turned out in 2010 as in 2012?  Obama won the state about 1.6 Million to 1.1 Million IIRC.

[Ogre Mage]

Hey, all you pinko WA commie libs. Does WA make this election a net plus for you, the way you humiliated the jack booted thugs in the promise land in a wave election for them outside this one particular sanctuary of sanity? Just asking. Cheers.

I like your Colleen Hanabusa picture.  I also like the fact that California may have resisted the GOP wave even more strongly than Washington.