Official North Carolina Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[ChrisFromNJ]

They were likely included into the exit polls, just like they have been in every state.

Uh...no?  I doubt that.  They didn't do it in California, and it showed.

They usually only do that with Washington and Oregon because the vast majority of votes there are VBM.  And if they do it, it's all a phone poll.

I don't see what's led you to believe early voters are included in exit polls.

Exit polls that came out before the results came in showed Hillary winning California by close to double digits. And that is ultimately by how much she won California.

[Gustaf]

They were likely included into the exit polls, just like they have been in every state.

Uh...no?  I doubt that.  They didn't do it in California, and it showed.

They usually only do that with Washington and Oregon because the vast majority of votes there are VBM.  And if they do it, it's all a phone poll.

I don't see what's led you to believe early voters are included in exit polls.

I'm pretty sure it's done regularly in Sweden, for what it's worth. Nothing, that is.

[Verily]

They were likely included into the exit polls, just like they have been in every state.

Uh...no?  I doubt that.  They didn't do it in California, and it showed.

They usually only do that with Washington and Oregon because the vast majority of votes there are VBM.  And if they do it, it's all a phone poll.

I don't see what's led you to believe early voters are included in exit polls.

I'm pretty sure it's done regularly in Sweden, for what it's worth. Nothing, that is.

I achieve that on a regular basis. Wait, what were we talking about?

[Alcon]

Exit polls that came out before the results came in showed Hillary winning California by close to double digits. And that is ultimately by how much she won California.

Obama tends to overperform in exit polls because older voters are less likely to respond to them, because they're now generally conducted by college students.

The early California exits had Clinton up about 12, IIRC, which is notably more than the 8 she got.

And again, please show me a source that substantiates your claim that early voters are measured in exit polls (how?  By mashing phone interviews into exit poll interviews?).

[Franzl]

Exit polls that came out before the results came in showed Hillary winning California by close to double digits. And that is ultimately by how much she won California.

Obama tends to overperform in exit polls because older voters are less likely to respond to them, because they're now generally conducted by college students.

The early California exits had Clinton up about 12, IIRC, which is notably more than the 8 she got.

And again, please show me a source that substantiates your claim that early voters are measured in exit polls (how?  By mashing phone interviews into exit poll interviews?).

But that would mean that Clinton, in fact, was overstated in the exit

[Alcon]

Blacks: 91-6 Obama

[Mr. Morden]

Re: whether the exits are Obama-friendly or not, here's the chart I posted last time around:

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[Alcon]

But that would mean that Clinton, in fact, was understated in the exit

Well...no...but forget this.  My train of thought has totally derailed.  This is an excessively complicated explanation proving that exit polls don't include early voters, when really I should just be demanding proof that they do. 

[Franzl]

But that would mean that Clinton, in fact, was understated in the exit

Well...no...but forget this.  My train of thought has totally derailed.  This is an excessively complicated explanation proving that exit polls don't include early voters, when really I should just be demanding proof that they do. 

I understand

[Mr. Morden]

Huffington Post has a leak of total numbers:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/

Clinton +5 in IN
Obama +12 in NC

[Alcon]

Huffington Post has a leak of total numbers:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/

Clinton +5 in IN
Obama +12 in NC

Is that the same exit poll?  If it is, like 83%+ of Indiana voters would have to have said they have been directly affected by the recession.

Another exit poll allegedly has Obama +1 in Indiana.  Alleged exit polls!  God bless this country.

[Franzl]

Huffington Post has a leak of total numbers:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/

Clinton +5 in IN
Obama +12 in NC

that would be extremely positive for Clinton, I believe.

[True Democrat]

Well if Obama's overpreformance holds in these two states, those numbers look good for Clinton.

[Mr. Morden]

Huffington Post has a leak of total numbers:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/

Clinton +5 in IN
Obama +12 in NC

Is that the same exit poll?

How should I know?  Do I look like I work for HuffPo? 

[emailking]

Well if Obama's overpreformance holds in these two states, those numbers look good for Clinton.

You mean his overperformance in exit polls?

[Alcon]

Huffington Post has a leak of total numbers:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/

Clinton +5 in IN
Obama +12 in NC

Is that the same exit poll?

How should I know?  Do I look like I work for HuffPo? 

Yes, you look like the head of their Rhetorical Question Answering Division (RQAD). 

[Mr. Morden]

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/story?id=4798314&page=1

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[True Democrat]

Yeah, in exit polls. I'm typing on a phone so it's a bit difficult.

[Mr. Morden]

http://thepage.time.com/

blacks: Obama 91-6

[emailking]

Yeah, in exit polls. I'm typing on a phone so it's a bit difficult.

Oh, ok. I agree then.

[Alcon]

Obama +8 among economy voters

[Sam Spade]

About what I would expect.  Let's see what happens.

Unfortunately, this will probably be my last post of the evening.  

[Eraserhead]

http://thepage.time.com/

blacks: Obama 91-6

Where is the rest of the black vote?

[© tweed]

FLASH: It looks like Hillary's last, best chance of closing delegate gap is slipping away tonight. With clock running out on her, if she couldn't make up ground this week, it's impossible to imagine scenario where she could... MORE...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Exit polls indicate that Obama led in the west of the state