oregon chat!

[WalterMitty]

im assuming the state is solid obama for the upcoming primary.

doesnt seem to be many bright spots for clinton there.  she will likely even do badly in eastern oregon, where her husband's administration isnt remembered too fondly.

[Aizen]

Obama should break 60%. Good state for him.

[Alcon]

I doubt he'll break 60%.

As good of a place as any to post my outdated, guess-y prediction map



Lightest shades are essentially guesses (the East was a nightmare to do).  Medium shades are leans.  Dark shades are relatively certain, and I'd be a little embarrassed if I were wrong.

Edit: Lincoln County (the light-pink mid-coast county) should probably be guess-Obama, but whatever.  I think I was thinking it's older and more unionized than it is, but mostly I think it's hippies.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I haven't seen any polls from here, but Obama will need a big win to offset the whuppin' he gets in Kentucky.

[ChrisFromNJ]

It depends on what happens in the previous few states and the media narrative. If Hillary can build some momentum, she can come within 10 and might even have a chance of winning the state.

[True Democrat]

At this point, I'm saying Obama wins by a Pennsylvania like margin.

[Torie]

I think Oregon will be pretty close. White folks seem to be getting restless. Plus, other than  Wisconsin, just where in a real primary (none of this caucus nonsense) outside of Illinois did Obama do that well with white people, like getting well over 50%?

[ChrisFromNJ]

I think Oregon will be pretty close. White folks seem to be getting restless. Plus, other than  Wisconsin, just where in a real primary (none of this caucus nonsense) outside of Illinois did Obama do that well with white people, like getting well over 50%?

Vermont. That's about it.

And Obama didn't even win the White Democratic vote in Wisconsin.

[Joe Republic]

I think Oregon will be pretty close. White folks seem to be getting restless. Plus, other than  Wisconsin, just where in a real primary (none of this caucus nonsense) outside of Illinois did Obama do that well with white people, like getting well over 50%?

Vermont. That's about it.

Plus Utah and Virginia.

[Alcon]

I think Oregon will be pretty close. White folks seem to be getting restless. Plus, other than  Wisconsin, just where in a real primary (none of this caucus nonsense) outside of Illinois did Obama do that well with white people, like getting well over 50%?

Vermont. That's about it.

Plus Utah and Virginia.

Clinton won white Democrats by 12 points in Virginia, and they tied in Utah.

That doesn't bode all that well for Obama.  My map was assuming the ten-point race SurveyUSA was describing a while back.  I do think Clinton has the potential to actually win Oregon, or at least keep it close.

[Sam Spade]

I think Oregon will be pretty close. White folks seem to be getting restless. Plus, other than  Wisconsin, just where in a real primary (none of this caucus nonsense) outside of Illinois did Obama do that well with white people, like getting well over 50%?

Vermont. That's about it.

Plus Utah and Virginia.

Clinton won white Democrats by 12 points in Virginia, and they tied in Utah.

That doesn't bode all that well for Obama.  My map was assuming the ten-point race SurveyUSA was describing a while back.  I do think Clinton has the potential to actually win Oregon, or at least keep it close.

Is Oregon open or closed?

[Alcon]

I think Oregon will be pretty close. White folks seem to be getting restless. Plus, other than  Wisconsin, just where in a real primary (none of this caucus nonsense) outside of Illinois did Obama do that well with white people, like getting well over 50%?

Vermont. That's about it.

Plus Utah and Virginia.

Clinton won white Democrats by 12 points in Virginia, and they tied in Utah.

That doesn't bode all that well for Obama.  My map was assuming the ten-point race SurveyUSA was describing a while back.  I do think Clinton has the potential to actually win Oregon, or at least keep it close.

Is Oregon open or closed?

Closed.

[Joe Republic]

I think Oregon will be pretty close. White folks seem to be getting restless. Plus, other than  Wisconsin, just where in a real primary (none of this caucus nonsense) outside of Illinois did Obama do that well with white people, like getting well over 50%?

Vermont. That's about it.

Plus Utah and Virginia.

Clinton won white Democrats by 12 points in Virginia, and they tied in Utah.

Which exit polls were you going by?  I used CNN.

[Alcon]

I think Oregon will be pretty close. White folks seem to be getting restless. Plus, other than  Wisconsin, just where in a real primary (none of this caucus nonsense) outside of Illinois did Obama do that well with white people, like getting well over 50%?

Vermont. That's about it.

Plus Utah and Virginia.

Clinton won white Democrats by 12 points in Virginia, and they tied in Utah.

Which exit polls were you going by?  I used CNN.

CNN...are you sure you're looking at White Democrats and not just whites?  Both were open primaries; Oregon isn't.

[Joe Republic]

I think Oregon will be pretty close. White folks seem to be getting restless. Plus, other than  Wisconsin, just where in a real primary (none of this caucus nonsense) outside of Illinois did Obama do that well with white people, like getting well over 50%?

Vermont. That's about it.

Plus Utah and Virginia.

Clinton won white Democrats by 12 points in Virginia, and they tied in Utah.

Which exit polls were you going by?  I used CNN.

CNN...are you sure you're looking at White Democrats and not just whites?  Both were open primaries; Oregon isn't.

Ah, got it.  My mistake. 

[Sam Spade]

I think Oregon will be pretty close. White folks seem to be getting restless. Plus, other than  Wisconsin, just where in a real primary (none of this caucus nonsense) outside of Illinois did Obama do that well with white people, like getting well over 50%?

Vermont. That's about it.

Plus Utah and Virginia.

Clinton won white Democrats by 12 points in Virginia, and they tied in Utah.

That doesn't bode all that well for Obama.  My map was assuming the ten-point race SurveyUSA was describing a while back.  I do think Clinton has the potential to actually win Oregon, or at least keep it close.

Is Oregon open or closed?

Closed.

Who tend to be the Democrats in Oregon?  I know there are no blacks there.

[Alcon]

Approximate Democratic voteshare:

Multnomah (Portland) - 28%
Portland suburbs/exurbs - 23%
College counties - 20%
Other - 29%

Clackamas County now has a Democratic registration advantage for the first time in history.

It may come down to how Obama does in the non-college parts of places like Salem.  And the suburbs, obviously, as always...

[Eraserhead]

Hillary better hope for a bigger than expected turnout from hispanics and asians or it'll be a blowout.

[Torie]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Greens and atheists and new agers and gays (along with the usual suspects, bureaucrats and educators, and their wards). Lumberjacks have pretty well got the Democrat spotted owled out of them. Oregon doesn't do minorities period. (The baggage handlers at the Portland Airport look like Nazis.) Well, I guess it has a few Asians.

Oh one other thing: Oregon is very light on Catholics and heavy on Yankees, so that helps Obama.

[Alcon]

That's a good point.  It's worth remembering the Prot-Catholic split.  Only 12% of Kerry's Oregon voters were Catholics.  They are far, far outnumbered by the non-religious, who are likely to exceed a third of the elecorate.  And, in the Pacific Northwest, they are not particularly fond of Hillary Clinton.

In fact, fewer than 55% of Kerry's 2004 Oregon voters were Christians at all.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama would've won the white vote in most (if not almost all) of the caucus states (where also obviously almost all the Democrats are white due to almost everyone being white, period.) so excluding caucuses skews things a bit even if we can't be sure of Obama's exact margin. But it's pretty obvious Hillary wouldn't have won an Idaho primary. Also I highly doubt anyone at this point will dispute my insistence that Obama would've won Minnesota in a primary, and Minnesota certainly has more areas where whites are more favorable to Hillary than Oregon.

[Torie]

Obama would've won the white vote in most (if not almost all) of the caucus states (where also obviously almost all the Democrats are white due to almost everyone being white, period.) so excluding caucuses skews things a bit even if we can't be sure of Obama's exact margin. But it's pretty obvious Hillary wouldn't have won an Idaho primary. Also I highly doubt anyone at this point will dispute my insistence that Obama would've won Minnesota in a primary, and Minnesota certainly has more areas where whites are more favorable to Hillary than Oregon.

All fair points (certainly your speculation is reasonable), but Obama has suffered some white erosion since Minnesota. Oregon I think will be close, unless Obama's tongue lashing of Wright has some kind of tectonic effect which it might. Predicting the behavior of the loyal opposition can give one a headache. Pubbies are much more predictable.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama would've won the white vote in most (if not almost all) of the caucus states (where also obviously almost all the Democrats are white due to almost everyone being white, period.) so excluding caucuses skews things a bit even if we can't be sure of Obama's exact margin. But it's pretty obvious Hillary wouldn't have won an Idaho primary. Also I highly doubt anyone at this point will dispute my insistence that Obama would've won Minnesota in a primary, and Minnesota certainly has more areas where whites are more favorable to Hillary than Oregon.

All fair points (certainly your speculation is reasonable), but Obama has suffered some white erosion since Minnesota.

Based on what? Obama did fine with whites up until March 4, when he got the first three states in awhile that had unfavorable whites and not enough blacks. Then after that there was Mississippi (duh) and Pennsylvania (another unfavorable state.) We haven't had any states in awhile with a favorable white population for Obama. And if Obama was suffering severe white erosion, we wouldn't have any polls showing Indiana as competitive.

[Torie]

Just a feeling, and it was not that long ago, that Obama had a 10% lead in Indiana. I have this little Yankee stock index that I use now. Per that index, Obama should carry the white vote in Indiana 55-45. He isn't.

[Alcon]

Just a feeling, and it was not that long ago, that Obama had a 10% lead in Indiana.

Other than an incredibly no-name poll, he's never been any place close to 20.  I don't see much proof of significant trending either way in Indiana.  The polls there just seem to suck.