oregon chat!

[NOVA Green]

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I expect OR-2 to go for Clinton by 55-45, mainly because of Jackson / Josephine counties are former timber producing areas with high numbers of retirees where there are still positive memories of Bill Clinton's compromise on logging in the early '90s. Yes Bend (Deschutes Co.) can be expected to go for Obama by a decent margin, yet how many Republicans changed their registration in this area to vote in the Democratic primary? Hood river is too small to be especially significant, although Obama may be able to do well in La Grande (Union Co.) home to  the largest college in Eastern Oregon, and he is in Pendleton tonight, although I am not sure how well his message will play in that area.

One factor to consider is the large number of latinos in areas like Harney and Malheur counties, who account for a significant percentage of the Democratic vote in overwhelmingly Republican counties. This is also true for many of these other counties under discussion. I suspect Obama will do better with the Latino vote in Western Oregon (Marion and Washington counties spring to mind) than in these areas East of the cascades.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

SurveyUSA has had three polls from Oregon, and all three have had Obama doing better in the "rest of state" than in the Portland area. Now the typical caveat about subsamples applies, but still if it's happened three times, it's probably correct. The Portland area by their definition includes OR-1, OR-3 and most of OR-5. So if Obama is losing OR-2 (and by 10 points nonetheless), he must be REALLY ahead in OR-4 which is unlikely because OR-4 isn't all Eugene and in fact the non-Eugene parts of it are quite similar to OR-2. OR-4 and OR-2 can't be that far apart.

What I'm most worried about is if she can eke out a victory in OR-1. She might in OR-5 too, but I don't care since it's an even number of delegates. But her eking out a narrow victory in OR-1 might be possible.

[NOVA Green]

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OR-3 is mainly the city of Portland proper, as well as some of the Eastern suburbs, most significantly Gresham. Obama should win this CD by at least 61-39, mainly because of his strength in the city proper. She has a better chance of winning OR-5, because of strength in
Clackamas county, which are a mix of blue-collar and upper middle class suburbs. Additionally, she will win Marion county by 55-45, because although Obama will probably perform better amongst Latinos than in many other areas of the country, her edge amongst that group combined with blue-collar Keizer and rural residents will eliminate whatever small edge he has in Salem. Linn county should also be Hillary country, although I am not sure by what margins.

OR-1 includes heavily Latino Hillsboro and Beaverton, but also a lot of upscale voters that have trended Obama elsewhere... expect Hillary to win rural blue-collar Columbia county and Obama to carry Astoria (Clatsop co.). A heavy Obama vote in wealthy West Portland should negate any Hillary margins elsewhere in the district.

OR-4 might be expected to have strongly pro-Hillary areas, but many of these voters switched to voting Republican in the '90s at the height of the Timber Wars. I would not be surprised to see a 60-40 Obama margin as a result of turnout in Lane county, as well as those parts of Benton county that fall within this district. Obama's recent rally in Roseburg drew 1,500 people, which shows that he should not under-perform as badly in Douglas County as many recent Democrats.

[Sbane]

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OR-3 is mainly the city of Portland proper, as well as some of the Eastern suburbs, most significantly Gresham. Obama should win this CD by at least 61-39, mainly because of his strength in the city proper. She has a better chance of winning OR-5, because of strength in
Clackamas county, which are a mix of blue-collar and upper middle class suburbs. Additionally, she will win Marion county by 55-45, because although Obama will probably perform better amongst Latinos than in many other areas of the country, her edge amongst that group combined with blue-collar Keizer and rural residents will eliminate whatever small edge he has in Salem. Linn county should also be Hillary country, although I am not sure by what margins.

OR-1 includes heavily Latino Hillsboro and Beaverton, but also a lot of upscale voters that have trended Obama elsewhere... expect Hillary to win rural blue-collar Columbia county and Obama to carry Astoria (Clatsop co.). A heavy Obama vote in wealthy West Portland should negate any Hillary margins elsewhere in the district.

OR-4 might be expected to have strongly pro-Hillary areas, but many of these voters switched to voting Republican in the '90s at the height of the Timber Wars. I would not be surprised to see a 60-40 Obama margin as a result of turnout in Lane county, as well as those parts of Benton county that fall within this district. Obama's recent rally in Roseburg drew 1,500 people, which shows that he should not under-perform as badly in Douglas County as many recent Democrats.

Obama drew 1,500 people in Roseburg?? WTF. I remember I stayed over in that town one night and I swear there cannot be more than a few thousand people living there. Anyways I disagree with you about CD-2. I think there is enough Anti-Clinton hatred combined with strength for Obama for him to win the district. Remember this district is heavily republican except for Bend,Medford,Asheville and Hood river county. We already know Bend and Ashville will put up some ridiculous margins for Obama but can Medford cancel that out? I think most of the older folks in the area would tend to be republicans or voting back home where they came from. It will be very interesting to see how Meford does vote in the end but I do not think it will be pro-hillary enough for her to win the district.

[Alcon]

Douglas County (Roseburg) has actually seen a notable increase in Democratic registrations, up there with some of the college counties.  That's very interesting...I would think that the area would be Clinton-favorable, although I don't remember Roseburg screaming "class divisions" in the same way that Albany (Linn County) did.  Obama might have managed some stellar targeted GOTV efforts there somehow, but there has to be an explanation.

Medford (and rural Jackson County) will be very interesting.  Ashland is a big factor in Jackson County, but even with the similar (at least among Democratic voters) near-by communities of Talent and Phoenix, it was only a little over 35% of the county's Kerry vote.  Medford was about a third, and the Rogue River Valley about 15%.  Obama needs to do well in both to manage more than a narrow win.

Useless fact -- Ashland, home to Southern Oregon University, was one of only two cities in the Pacific Northwest where Kerry broke 80% (the other being Seattle, of course).  It, not Portland or Eugene, is easily Oregon's most liberal city.

[Sbane]

Douglas County (Roseburg) has actually seen a notable increase in Democratic registrations, up there with some of the college counties.  That's very interesting...I would think that the area would be Clinton-favorable, although I don't remember Roseburg screaming "class divisions" in the same way that Albany (Linn County) did.  Obama might have managed some stellar targeted GOTV efforts there somehow, but there has to be an explanation.

Medford (and rural Jackson County) will be very interesting.  Ashland is a big factor in Jackson County, but even with the similar (at least among Democratic voters) near-by communities of Talent and Phoenix, it was only a little over 35% of the county's Kerry vote.  Medford was about a third, and the Rogue River Valley about 15%.  Obama needs to do well in both to manage more than a narrow win.

Useless fact -- Ashland, home to Southern Oregon University, was one of only two cities in the Pacific Northwest where Kerry broke 80% (the other being Seattle, of course).  It, not Portland or Eugene, is easily Oregon's most liberal city.

Interesting that the rogue river valley was 15% of the vote. Does this include any towns or just the houses that line the river? Those areas seem pretty republican to me and looked to be full of retirees. That could include old hippies of course but DIROs do not live in places such as that. Medford I think Hillary will win but it should be close to 50-50. Remember people attracted to southern oregon do not necessarily live in Ashland. They could live in Medford and commute down for the festivities and the culture. Medford for many would be more convenient as it is the big city with all the facilities required for life. If Ashland gives Obama something like a 70-30 split he should win the county.

[Alcon]

Interesting that the rogue river valley was 15% of the vote. Does this include any towns or just the houses that line the river? Those areas seem pretty republican to me and looked to be full of retirees. That could include old hippies of course but DIROs do not live in places such as that. Medford I think Hillary will win but it should be close to 50-50. Remember people attracted to southern oregon do not necessarily live in Ashland. They could live in Medford and commute down for the festivities and the culture. Medford for many would be more convenient as it is the big city with all the facilities required for life. If Ashland gives Obama something like a 70-30 split he should win the county.

I screwed up the sheet, actually -- pretty much all of the non-Medford, non-Ashland population is in the Rogue River Valley.  The towns of Gold Hill, Rogue River and Shady Cove are on the river itself, and Eagle Point and White City are nearby.  Central Point, Medford and Jacksonville are a little in from the valley.

I just can't imagine Obama underperforming all that badly outside of Ashland.  I'd say a 50/50 split for the rest of the county is reasonable, and about a 5:3 split in the Ashland area.  That would make the county at least 10 points in Obama's favor.

[Sbane]

Interesting that the rogue river valley was 15% of the vote. Does this include any towns or just the houses that line the river? Those areas seem pretty republican to me and looked to be full of retirees. That could include old hippies of course but DIROs do not live in places such as that. Medford I think Hillary will win but it should be close to 50-50. Remember people attracted to southern oregon do not necessarily live in Ashland. They could live in Medford and commute down for the festivities and the culture. Medford for many would be more convenient as it is the big city with all the facilities required for life. If Ashland gives Obama something like a 70-30 split he should win the county.

I screwed up the sheet, actually -- pretty much all of the non-Medford, non-Ashland population is in the Rogue River Valley.  The towns of Gold Hill, Rogue River and Shady Cove are on the river itself, and Eagle Point and White City are nearby.  Central Point, Medford and Jacksonville are a little in from the valley.

I just can't imagine Obama underperforming all that badly outside of Ashland.  I'd say a 50/50 split for the rest of the county is reasonable, and about a 5:3 split in the Ashland area.  That would make the county at least 10 points in Obama's favor.

Ahh yes those small towns are probably pretty republican too. I think you are probably right about the numbers, somewhere around a 5-10 point victory in the county for Obama. Is that combined with Bend and Hoodriver enough for Obama to win CD-2? I think so.

[Alcon]

Ahh yes those small towns are probably pretty republican too. I think you are probably right about the numbers, somewhere around a 5-10 point victory in the county for Obama. Is that combined with Bend and Hoodriver enough for Obama to win CD-2? I think so.

Unless he gets clobbered in places like Baker City and Grants Pass, which are less clear, I imagine so.

[Sbane]

Ahh yes those small towns are probably pretty republican too. I think you are probably right about the numbers, somewhere around a 5-10 point victory in the county for Obama. Is that combined with Bend and Hoodriver enough for Obama to win CD-2? I think so.

Unless he gets clobbered in places like Baker City and Grants Pass, which are less clear, I imagine so.

Very true...can't wait for tomorrow.

[Alcon]

Poblano has released his Oregon model, which is...interesting.

Overall: Obama +13
OR-1 (NW/West Portland suburbs): Obama +24
OR-2 (East/Medford): Clinton +0
OR-3 (North/Portland): Obama +23
OR-4 (SW/Eugene): Obama +3
OR-5 (WNW/Salem): Obama +14

Clinton overperforms in OR-2 because it is Republican.  Poblano says that he wouldn't be surprised to see a 58/42 split either way.  I'd probably eat my own face if Clinton won OR-2 by 16 points, but whatever.

OR-4 vs. OR-5 is the entry the most people in this topic need to read.  He says that "if not for Eugene, OR-4 would be essentially indistinguishable from OR-2."  I'd argue that it has a few too cattle, but it should be recognized that not all of Eugene is the University of Oregon, and none of Springfield, Roseburg, Coos Bay or Albany is.

OR-5 just demographically looks better for Obama than I would have expected, and my guess is that it is a little bit closer.

Poblano predicts a final delegate split of 29-23, but notes that nearly all of the districts could feasibly be in play delegate-wise.

[Sbane]

Poblano has released his Oregon model, which is...interesting.

Overall: Obama +13
OR-1 (NW/West Portland suburbs): Obama +24
OR-2 (East/Medford): Clinton +0
OR-3 (North/Portland): Obama +23
OR-4 (SW/Eugene): Obama +3
OR-5 (WNW/Salem): Obama +14

Clinton overperforms in OR-2 because it is Republican.  Poblano says that he wouldn't be surprised to see a 58/42 split either way.  I'd probably eat my own face if Clinton won OR-2 by 16 points, but whatever.

OR-4 vs. OR-5 is the entry the most people in this topic need to read.  He says that "if not for Eugene, OR-4 would be essentially indistinguishable from OR-2."  I'd argue that it has a few too cattle, but it should be recognized that not all of Eugene is the University of Oregon, and none of Springfield, Roseburg, Coos Bay or Albany is.

OR-5 just demographically looks better for Obama than I would have expected, and my guess is that it is a little bit closer.

Poblano predicts a final delegate split of 29-23, but notes that nearly all of the districts could feasibly be in play delegate-wise.

Eh we might have overestimated Obama's strength in cd-4 but this guy certainly seems to be overestimating Obama in CD-1. I understand it contains wealthy burbs but it also has some pretty blue collar areas in the northwest region. Depends on how Astoria votes of course. I was also a little surprised by his analysis of cd-5 but I think he may be right. It does seem a good model of the state.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The blue collarness of OR-1 is what's overestimated. Kerry got over 200,000 votes there, of which only 12,563 were in Columbia county.

[Alcon]

Eh we might have overestimated Obama's strength in cd-4 but this guy certainly seems to be overestimating Obama in CD-1. I understand it contains wealthy burbs but it also has some pretty blue collar areas in the northwest region. Depends on how Astoria votes of course. I was also a little surprised by his analysis of cd-5 but I think he may be right. It does seem a good model of the state.

As BRTD points out, West Portland (more than) neutralizes Columbia County and we're left with suburbs, exurbs and Astoria.

[Sbane]

Eh we might have overestimated Obama's strength in cd-4 but this guy certainly seems to be overestimating Obama in CD-1. I understand it contains wealthy burbs but it also has some pretty blue collar areas in the northwest region. Depends on how Astoria votes of course. I was also a little surprised by his analysis of cd-5 but I think he may be right. It does seem a good model of the state.

As BRTD points out, West Portland (more than) neutralizes Columbia County and we're left with suburbs, exurbs and Astoria.

I guess the district is more suburban than I thought. A lot depends on how Astoria votes and I really have no clue what the city is like. Is it liberal or blue collar?

[Alcon]

I guess the district is more suburban than I thought. A lot depends on how Astoria votes and I really have no clue what the city is like. Is it liberal or blue collar?

CD-1's Kerry vote broke down thusly:  Washington 60%, Multnomah 19%, Yamhill 9%, Columbia 6%, Clatsop 5%.

Clatsop shouldn't be heavy either way - Astoria is kind of half neo-hippie resort towners, half working-class folk.  Cannon Beach and Seaside are almost all the former; rural areas and Warrenton trend the latter.  Astoria should be for Obama pretty decently, but the county as a whole is less clear.  I'd say Obama is favored, although there are certainly a lot of retirees and that may muck things up.

Astoria was under 30% of Clatsop County's Kerry vote total in 2004, and 1.6% of the entire district's total, so it won't be a deal-breaker.

[ottermax]

I guess the district is more suburban than I thought. A lot depends on how Astoria votes and I really have no clue what the city is like. Is it liberal or blue collar?

CD-1's Kerry vote broke down thusly:  Washington 60%, Multnomah 19%, Yamhill 9%, Columbia 6%, Clatsop 5%.

Clatsop shouldn't be heavy either way - Astoria is kind of half neo-hippie resort towners, half working-class folk.  Cannon Beach and Seaside are almost all the former; rural areas and Warrenton trend the latter.  Astoria should be for Obama pretty decently, but the county as a whole is less clear.  I'd say Obama is favored, although there are certainly a lot of retirees and that may muck things up.

Astoria was under 30% of Clatsop County's Kerry vote total in 2004, and 1.6% of the entire district's total, so it won't be a deal-breaker.

Not all parts of Washington County are great for Obama. Aren't there a lot of trailer parks in places like Aloha (along with many meth addicts)?

[Alcon]

Not all parts of Washington County are great for Obama. Aren't there a lot of trailer parks in places like Aloha (along with many meth addicts)?

Yeah - WashCo isn't universally affluent, but Aloha's median household income is about $54,000, which is fairly high.  I think that suburban Portland won't be Obama's best area, but I'd be surprised if he lost Washington County.  And he's gonna crush in West Portland.

Good news for Obama that meth addicts probably don't vote much, since they appreciate a hard-working woman (or at least a working woman, if you know what I mean).  As for trailer parks, I'd worry more about the Johnson City vote, and that's Clackamas County.

[Sbane]

I guess the district is more suburban than I thought. A lot depends on how Astoria votes and I really have no clue what the city is like. Is it liberal or blue collar?

CD-1's Kerry vote broke down thusly:  Washington 60%, Multnomah 19%, Yamhill 9%, Columbia 6%, Clatsop 5%.

Clatsop shouldn't be heavy either way - Astoria is kind of half neo-hippie resort towners, half working-class folk.  Cannon Beach and Seaside are almost all the former; rural areas and Warrenton trend the latter.  Astoria should be for Obama pretty decently, but the county as a whole is less clear.  I'd say Obama is favored, although there are certainly a lot of retirees and that may muck things up.

Astoria was under 30% of Clatsop County's Kerry vote total in 2004, and 1.6% of the entire district's total, so it won't be a deal-breaker.

Wow did not realise how irrelevant Astoria was, I dont know why I thought it was bigger than it is. So it looks like the suburbs will decide and I did not realise Seaside was in this district as well. Yeah this very well could be Obama's best district although cd-3 wont be far behind.

[NOVA Green]

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I agree entirely that this model is overestimating CD-1... although on paper Washington Co. looks extremely affluent, one has to remember that it also has some of the highest housing costs in the state. There are both extremely poor and working class regions of cities like Beaverton and  Tigard and Hillsboro side by side with extremely affluent areas... In those more affluent areas how many Democratic leaning voters switched their registration from Independent or Republican to vote for Obama?

It is true that the portion of Multnomah County in CD-1 will go heavily Obama (with the exception of a few wealthy retiree high-rises in SW Portland) but I do not foresee a 24 point blowout.

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I might be wrong on CD-2, it has been quite a few years since I spent time in Jackson / Josephine... there have been some major demographic changes in that region over the past 10 years, mainly as a result of an influx of middle-class retirees from California, and outmigration of young people seeking better opportunities elsewhere. Medford used to be known in the late '80s / early '90s as a regional stronghold of the Christian Identity movement, a White Supremacist neo-nazi cult which operated a radio station and bookstore there... much has changed in the past 20 years but remember Jackson and Josephine counties were some of the few in Oregon that went overwhelmingly for Goldwater in '64.

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I suspect it will be... this is the only Democratic held congressional district in Oregon that has consistently been marginal. Around 40% of the district is in Clackamas County, which are with a few notable exceptions (Lake Oswego) the working and lower-middle class suburbs of Portland. Also included Marion County, which is marginally Republican but also heavily Latino, which represents 25% of the districts vote. Marion County also has the highest percentage of Latinos in Western Oregon. Will Obama's surprise drop-in appearance in Woodburn and endorsement by PCUN (a major Latino farmworkers union) help him here?

[NOVA Green]

Local Portland statation 61-39 Obama 161K-104K

[NOVA Green]

Multnomah and Lane only counties on CNN so far...

64-36 Multnomah and 61-39 Lane...