SUSA about to release Clinton/McCain & Obama/McCain GE polls for all 50 states

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some of these numbers are pretty funny but then you have to expect that (isn't it about one in twenty polls that blows up totally? And here are one hundred polls! And early polls are often a little silly anyways). But the general pattern makes a certain amount of sense.

[Verily]

I would say North Dakota is a tad less believable than New Jersey, but ok.

SUSA have been good with primaries but they've never been very good with GE polls. They're an indicator, but their national maps have always been a bit crazy.

I didn't say ND was more believable, but NJ has obvious caveats in polling that could explain results whereas ND does not. As usual, in this poll, NJ in Obama-McCain has the highest undecideds in the country, and you know where they'll go.

[Reaganfan]

Even if everything on the maps is correct...I feel REALLY good about FLORIDA...and that helps McCain.

[Aizen]

Not that it means much but here is  where Obama and Clinton performed better than each other



Ohio is grey because this poll has them both up by 10 over McCain... although it is pretty obvious Hillary would do better there.

[Verily]

No surprises for any of those on where Obama and Clinton do better than each other, except Mississippi and maybe Texas.

[Sam Spade]

Some of these numbers are pretty funny but then you have to expect that (isn't it about one in twenty polls that blows up totally? And here are one hundred polls! And early polls are often a little silly anyways). But the general pattern makes a certain amount of sense.

^^^^^  Absolutely correct.  (1/20 is right too)

Of course, there's other issues here that are being pointed out, as well as some not being pointed out.  I'll add one in particular that is quite important.  Texas and Ohio numbers should not be trusted if they were in the past two weeks.

What I'm going to try and do later is put the numbers together and weight by state based on turnout the last 4 elections because there's a few things I'm looking for nationally, and 30,000 is quite a good sample.

[Wiz in Wis]

Looking at the internals, over most states the shift appears generational and racial... gendered too, but to a lesser extent. Clinton underperfoms in under 35's, AA's, and Independents, Obama underperforms in 55+'s, Dems, and Hispanics. 

Does this make anyone else think that a unity ticked would be mutherf***in unstoppable?

[Smash255]

No surprises for any of those on where Obama and Clinton do better than each other, except Mississippi and maybe Texas.

One explanation on Mississippi is turnout,  When its all set and done white voters in Mississippi will voter overwhelmingly for McCain no matter who the Dem candidate is, black voters will vote overwelmingly for either Obama or Clinton.  However, turnout among African Americans will be higher wirth Obama than Clinton which would make the state closer, still not enough to win because the white vote will be too strong for McCain.

[Sam Spade]

Do you think Clinton picking Obama would pull in the votes of people on this site (for example)?

Do you think a black man/white woman ticket would pull in the over 55s?

After three months (and possibly more) of this primary continuing, how much infighting between Clinton and Obama supporters is going to cause them to think McCain is a second choice to their first option?

Just a few thoughts to think about, that's all...

[Meeker]

Do you think Clinton picking Obama would pull in the votes of people on this site (for example)?

The people on this site aren't a good cross section of Democratic voters because we're all so obsessed with the race and follow it so closely. The vast, vast majority of voters haven't been following anywhere near as closely as us and thus aren't as radicalized (for lack of a better word) towards their candidate.

The other two points I think are quite valid though.

[Sam Spade]

Do you think Clinton picking Obama would pull in the votes of people on this site (for example)?

The people on this site aren't a good cross section of Democratic voters because we're all so obsessed with the race and follow it so closely. The vast, vast majority of voters haven't been following anywhere near as closely as us and thus aren't as radicalized (for lack of a better word) towards their candidate.

The other two points I think are quite valid though.

I suspect the under-35 Obama supporters who support McCain are a bit more radicalized than the normal under-35 population, but maybe I'm wrong.  The analogy was probably not the greatest, I admit.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

2 Nebraska electors for Obama? Hilarious.

[Smash255]

Do you think Clinton picking Obama would pull in the votes of people on this site (for example)?

Do you think a black man/white woman ticket would pull in the over 55s?

After three months (and possibly more) of this primary continuing, how much infighting between Clinton and Obama supporters is going to cause them to think McCain is a second choice to their first option?

Just a few thoughts to think about, that's all...

I doubt anything other than a small portion.  One thing supporters of both Obama and Clinton have in common is they hate bush.  McCain running a campaign on continuing Bush's policies isn't going to endure him to voters who hate Bush's guts.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Obama significantly underperforms in Massachusetts, and this should be no surprise.

After all, his political clone has been stinking things up as Governor here for the past 15 months.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama vs. McCain

[Wiz in Wis]

Do you think Clinton picking Obama would pull in the votes of people on this site (for example)?

Do you think a black man/white woman ticket would pull in the over 55s?

After three months (and possibly more) of this primary continuing, how much infighting between Clinton and Obama supporters is going to cause them to think McCain is a second choice to their first option?

Just a few thoughts to think about, that's all...

Question 1) This site doesn't exactly represent the polity, now does it

2) Just the Women and the Blacks... so yes

3) People like them both, and there is a general election to overcome gripes.... How many Dean supporters voted for Bush or Nader? If 2 million people have contributed to and volunteered for these campaigns and invested enough to hate the other and stay home. thats what 1% of the possible voter pool?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

2 Nebraska electors for Obama? Hilarious.

If Nebraska breaks 45-42 for the GOP, given how NE-3 usually breaks about 10% more GOP than the rest of the State, then the Dem getting NE-1 and NE-2 is believable.

[Eraserhead]

Did anyone else lol when they saw Utah was within 11 points with Obama?

Battleground Utah baby!

[Angel of Death]

Anyone up to running Monte Carlo simulations based on these numbers and give us EC win estimations?

[Alcon]

If SUSA's web site actually worked I'd enter them.  I hope they have similar methodologies.

[Sam Spade]

Based on the numbers posted above, I should be able to do one of the three major breakdowns that I'm curious about.  The other two require internals.

National popular vote numbers (averaging last three elections per state and weighting)
National party ID
Candidate % of party ID

I may eventually do a national racial breakdown, if I get to it.

[ottermax]

I doubt Obama would be that great in the Mountain/Plain states, but perhaps he will. It would be hard to believe ND voting for Obama, but why not? It is a small state, and the swing of voters isn't that much. I think we could actually see a map like the polls say, somewhat crazy and different, but still plausible.

[agcatter]

Wow.  Obama takes two electors in Nebraska.  Carries GOP ND.

Dems, you MUST nominate this man.  The black messiah in unbeatable!

[Speed of Sound]

Well, it certainly appears that there are no hard feelings against Obama in FL.

[Aizen]

Wow.  Obama takes two electors in Nebraska.  Carries GOP ND.

Dems, you MUST nominate this man.  The black messiah in unbeatable!

He's not going to win those states but he going to be significantly stronger in those prairie states and every state westward than Hillary.