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  SUSA about to release Clinton/McCain & Obama/McCain GE polls for all 50 states
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Author Topic: SUSA about to release Clinton/McCain & Obama/McCain GE polls for all 50 states  (Read 5456 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: March 06, 2008, 12:33:22 pm »
« edited: March 06, 2008, 12:35:13 pm by Mr. Morden »

SUSA says they're going to release GE polling for all 50 states today:

link

They're already revealing who they have leading in every state.  Obama v. McCain:



Clinton v. McCain:



However, they seem to be leaving things ambiguous as to whether every single one of these state-by-state polls is new.  Might they just be compiling some of their polls taken over the last couple of months, and calling it a brand new thing?
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Alcon
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« Reply #1 on: March 06, 2008, 12:38:06 pm »

North Dakota?

Well, cool anyway.
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Verily
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« Reply #2 on: March 06, 2008, 12:54:12 pm »
« Edited: March 06, 2008, 01:01:52 pm by Verily »

McCain-Clinton is a 276-262 Clinton victory.



McCain-Obama is a 278-260 Obama victory.




North Dakota is weird, but I've long had the suspicion that Obama might make the rural northern west a lot more competitive than it has been, tapping into the extraordinary anti-establishment sentiment there. (That's really just the Dakotas, Montana and Wyoming.) Maybe that's ridiculous optimism, but there you go.

Also, the usual caveats about polling certain states apply, NJ being the most obvious on these maps.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #3 on: March 06, 2008, 01:26:29 pm »

Glad to see Obama is leading in Ohio. Trailing in NJ though? Not likely.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4 on: March 06, 2008, 01:28:03 pm »


Did they just poll some of BRTD's people?
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phk
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« Reply #5 on: March 06, 2008, 01:28:53 pm »

Ohio and Pennsylvania should be flipped on Obama-McCain.
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #6 on: March 06, 2008, 01:37:04 pm »

This is exciting but do we not get percentages? 
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Alcon
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« Reply #7 on: March 06, 2008, 01:47:09 pm »

This is exciting but do we not get percentages? 

When the polls are released later today, yes.

The interviews were "just completd," by the way, so we know they're all new polls.
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Aizen
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« Reply #8 on: March 06, 2008, 01:47:45 pm »

The West likes Obama aww yeah
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Gustaf
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« Reply #9 on: March 06, 2008, 01:50:31 pm »

McCain-Clinton is a 276-262 Clinton victory.



McCain-Obama is a 278-260 Obama victory.




North Dakota is weird, but I've long had the suspicion that Obama might make the rural northern west a lot more competitive than it has been, tapping into the extraordinary anti-establishment sentiment there. (That's really just the Dakotas, Montana and Wyoming.) Maybe that's ridiculous optimism, but there you go.

Also, the usual caveats about polling certain states apply, NJ being the most obvious on these maps.

I would say North Dakota is a tad less believable than New Jersey, but ok. Tongue

SUSA have been good with primaries but they've never been very good with GE polls. They're an indicator, but their national maps have always been a bit crazy.
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Meeker
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« Reply #10 on: March 06, 2008, 01:53:07 pm »

Apparently one of the Democrats won a CD in Nebraska. My guess is Obama in NE-02
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Alcon
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« Reply #11 on: March 06, 2008, 01:55:30 pm »

Eh - we'll see.  North Dakota is less anti-establishment than either South Dakota or Montana, and more Republican.  I'll want to see the polls out of those two states.  Idaho and Wyoming, too.  Even parts of Nebraska; maybe Obama will "win" a CD there, not that the poll would show this*.  Should be a fun afternoon.

But North Dakota is not voting Democratic in the General unless the Dem candidate is named Bartlett and is fictional.

* - Edit: ...or maybe it will.  That was sure a weird coincidence.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #12 on: March 06, 2008, 02:00:29 pm »

Eh - we'll see.  North Dakota is less anti-establishment than either South Dakota or Montana, and more Republican.  I'll want to see the polls out of those two states.  Idaho and Wyoming, too.  Even parts of Nebraska; maybe Obama will "win" a CD there, not that the poll would show this*.  Should be a fun afternoon.

But North Dakota is not voting Democratic in the General unless the Dem candidate is named Bartlett and is fictional.

* - Edit: ...or maybe it will.  That was sure a weird coincidence.

But the West loves Obama!

Seriously, I think these polls are sort of correct in the tendencies they show. But SUSA tends to blow up a couple of polls pretty badly when they do this. In the Obama v McCain match-up I'd say Ohio, North Dakota and New Jersey look completely unbelievable. I don't buy Virginia either. In Clinton v McCain the swing seem a little too large (McCain winning New Hampshire and Washington, Clinton winning West Virginia and Florida) but the trend is correct. Apart from Michigan, lol. Michigan going GOP when Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida don't? Yeah, right.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #13 on: March 06, 2008, 02:01:29 pm »

Niiiiice.

Iīm in for a long night to enter this stuff to the database. Smiley
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Alcon
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« Reply #14 on: March 06, 2008, 02:03:52 pm »

But the West loves Obama!

Seriously, I think these polls are sort of correct in the tendencies they show. But SUSA tends to blow up a couple of polls pretty badly when they do this. In the Obama v McCain match-up I'd say Ohio, North Dakota and New Jersey look completely unbelievable. I don't buy Virginia either. In Clinton v McCain the swing seem a little too large (McCain winning New Hampshire and Washington, Clinton winning West Virginia and Florida) but the trend is correct. Apart from Michigan, lol. Michigan going GOP when Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida don't? Yeah, right.

All in all, these look pretty standard for polls done before a candidate is even finalized.
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SPQR
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« Reply #15 on: March 06, 2008, 02:05:55 pm »

ND? LMAO
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #16 on: March 06, 2008, 02:07:26 pm »

Btw:

Clinton losing MI, NH, WA and OR to McCain ? Possible, but unlikely. Obama leading in ND is probably the biggest outlier here. I donīt believe it until I see other polls from there. Everything else on the Obama vs. McCain map looks credible. Iīm looking forward to the LA results and how Obama does compared to Clinton in Arkansas.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #17 on: March 06, 2008, 02:10:29 pm »



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Tender Branson
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« Reply #18 on: March 06, 2008, 02:12:56 pm »



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Gustaf
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« Reply #19 on: March 06, 2008, 02:13:54 pm »

The exact results were less credible than the map. But MA and TX are beginning to consistently appear to be in play.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #20 on: March 06, 2008, 02:15:31 pm »

Donīt get it. Just a few days ago they released a TX poll showing Clinton closer to McCain than Obama. Now Obama is about to win TX and Clinton is trailing ? Tongue
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Meeker
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« Reply #21 on: March 06, 2008, 02:17:01 pm »

Obama down by four in Alaska and South Dakota, three in Nebraska, and one in Texas? Try again guys
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #22 on: March 06, 2008, 02:18:55 pm »

Obama down by four in Alaska and South Dakota, three in Nebraska, and one in Texas? Try again guys

SUSA should follow your advice: Poll all 50 states each month now until November. Pollgasm ! Wink
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Ben.
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« Reply #23 on: March 06, 2008, 02:26:23 pm »

Will wait and see what other polls say over the next few weeks and months... either way Obama vs McCain has the potential to radically recast the electoral map in a way that we havent seen for a very long time.

SUSA probably over states it a bit this far out, but i think the trend towards Clinton/McCain being fought along 2000/04 lines while Obama/McCain being a good deal more open-ended is likley to be reflected in other polls.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #24 on: March 06, 2008, 02:41:24 pm »

I'm encouraged by the Ohio numbers.
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