Canada 2008: Official Thread

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The Human Trash is not running again.

Emerson?

Yes.

The Conservatives have nominated a local-based candidate in the Kamloops riding he was supposed to carpetbag to.

The Conservatives haven't nominated a candidate yet in his actual seat of Kingsway, but nobody cares about that.

[Hash]

Results of said poll in map form:



LOL.

They should team up with ARG and Zogby for Zogby-ARG-EKOS super-polls!

[Verily]

I agree; there was a lot of weirdness in the poll. The NDP led in the Prairies and Atlantic Canada (!), the Liberals barely managed third ahead of the Greens in BC, the Greens were ahead of the NDP in Ontario, where the Conservatives narrowly led the Liberals. But it was amusing.

The only obvious result was 66% for the Conservatives in Alberta (Lib 17, NDP and Greens 8 each). But there's only one competitive seat in Alberta anyway, Edmonton-Strathcona.

I expect the Liberals to take a little bit of hit in BC due to the "green shift" tax plan, especially in the more rural ridings.  BCers already have been hit with a carbon tax and aren't liking it much.

The Bloc receiving votes in the Prairies?  A confused Winnipeg Francophone, perhaps?  And the Dippers in the lead there?  Again, the Liberals may take a hit in the non-urban parts of the Prairies (likely to go Torie, anyway) due to the green shift, but would the Dippers really be the ones to take advantage of that?

You're totally misreading the green shift plan and applying US standards to it. Which is somewhat amusing, but anyway. the sort of people who might care are already voting NDP and probably have since the Alliance merged with the PCs. They're the Conservative-NDP swing voters.

The "rural ridings" in the west are, where they're not Conservative strongholds, NDP-Conservative battlegrounds. BC Southern Interior, Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo (and the other Kamloops seats to a lesser extent), a lot of Saskatchewan seats, Skeena-Bulkley Valley, etc.

The NDP leading in the Prairies is not totally unrealistic, not if the Liberals are doing poorly in Winnipeg. In poor economic conditions as at present, I could, at least in theory, see those provinces switching heavily from the Conservatives to the NDP. The Prairies tend to bypass the Liberals.

But I have seen little evidence that the NDP stands much chance at winning any of their targets in Saskatchewan except maybe Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar. The only rural areas where the Liberals win any votes at all are places with large First Nations populations (Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, for example). The NDP has traditional strength in Saskatchewan particularly, which for a long time was the party's base. (2004 was the first election the NDP failed to win a seat there.)


Something interesting: Jack Harris seems very likely to stand for the NDP in St. John's East, which he won spectacularly in a by-election back in 1987. It's hard to see the Conservatives holding on anywhere in Newfoundland given the particular conditions working against them, and the talk is that the NDP may sweep the two St. John's seats on the back of Harris. Avalon will be a Conservative-Liberal battle, but that will probably fall to the Liberals, too.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Actually the Party went through a barren patch in Saskatchewan in the mid '60's as well (even Tommy Douglas was heavily beaten in Regina City in '63). The province was run by an unpopular NDP government back then; as it was in 2004 and 2006. It will be interesting to see whether a certain historical pattern holds.

[Hash]

2006 map: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/map/2006/

A shame the riding profiles don't go in depth in demographic stuff.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

2006 map: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/map/2006/

Nice.

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Last time round there was a decent amount (though not especially easy to use) on the statcan website.

[cinyc]

You're totally misreading the green shift plan and applying US standards to it. Which is somewhat amusing, but anyway. the sort of people who might care are already voting NDP and probably have since the Alliance merged with the PCs. They're the Conservative-NDP swing voters.

I'm not misreading the green shift plan or applying U.S. standards to it.  Dion claims it will be revenue neutral and not make taxpayers worse off, but 1) Dion's a terrible salesman (largely in part because he doesn't speak English well - what's a carpool?) and 2) that's not the reality for farmers and rural residents unless the plan has been significantly revised.  Promises of revisions to the plan is not the same thing as actually doing it.

The "rural ridings" in the west are, where they're not Conservative strongholds, NDP-Conservative battlegrounds. BC Southern Interior, Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo (and the other Kamloops seats to a lesser extent), a lot of Saskatchewan seats, Skeena-Bulkley Valley, etc.

The NDP leading in the Prairies is not totally unrealistic, not if the Liberals are doing poorly in Winnipeg. In poor economic conditions as at present, I could, at least in theory, see those provinces switching heavily from the Conservatives to the NDP. The Prairies tend to bypass the Liberals.

But I have seen little evidence that the NDP stands much chance at winning any of their targets in Saskatchewan except maybe Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar. The only rural areas where the Liberals win any votes at all are places with large First Nations populations (Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, for example). The NDP has traditional strength in Saskatchewan particularly, which for a long time was the party's base. (2004 was the first election the NDP failed to win a seat there.)

B.C. races tend to be more three-way than anything else.  In most B.C. ridings held by Conservatives - including the rural ones - the Liberals and Dippers often were within 5 points of each other, even in defeat.

My point isn't that the Liberals will lose ridings in the Prairies (they don't have many anyway) but votes as a result of the green shift.  Lost votes in rural areas - whether they go to the Dippers, Tories or Greens, would be reflected in the overall polls. 

I doubt the NDP is ahead in the Prairies.  Even if the NDP received every Saskachewan Liberal vote from 2006, they'd still be behind the Tories unless they lost support in the Province (and why would they?  Although provincial results don't necessarily translate into federal results, the provincial NDP lost last provincial election).  And if that happened, they'd still have to take 80% of the 2006 Liberal vote in Manitoba to draw even in the Prairies.

The MOE in the Prairie, Alberta and Atlantic Canada subsamples are extremely high - often close to double digits.  Those subsamples should always be taken with a huge grain of salt.

Something interesting: Jack Harris seems very likely to stand for the NDP in St. John's East, which he won spectacularly in a by-election back in 1987. It's hard to see the Conservatives holding on anywhere in Newfoundland given the particular conditions working against them, and the talk is that the NDP may sweep the two St. John's seats on the back of Harris. Avalon will be a Conservative-Liberal battle, but that will probably fall to the Liberals, too.

What other than Premier Danny Williams is working against the Tories in Newfoundland? The Tories won their 3 NL ridings by over 10 points in 2006, and came within 5 points of beating the Liberals  in Random-Burin-St. George's.
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In the interest of full disclosure, unlike everyone else who has posted to this thread, I'm much more sympathetic to the Tories than Liberals, Dippers or Greens.

[cinyc]

Environics/CBC (9/2):

Canada:
Conservatives 38%
Liberals 28%
NDP 19%
Bloc Québécois 8%
Greens 7%

Regional results:
Atlantic Canada:
Liberals 39%
Conservatives 33%
NDP 23%
Greens 5%
 
Quebec:
Bloc 34%
Conservatives 23%
Liberals 22%
NDP 16%
Greens 6%

Ontario:
Conservatives  43%
Liberals 34%
NDP 16%
Greens 7%

Prairies (incl. Alberta):
Conservatives 53%
Liberals 22%
NDP 19%
Greens 6%

B.C.:
Conservatives 35%
NDP 28%
Liberals 26%
Greens 10%

[Verily]

You're totally misreading the green shift plan and applying US standards to it. Which is somewhat amusing, but anyway. the sort of people who might care are already voting NDP and probably have since the Alliance merged with the PCs. They're the Conservative-NDP swing voters.

I'm not misreading the green shift plan or applying U.S. standards to it.  Dion claims it will be revenue neutral and not make taxpayers worse off, but 1) Dion's a terrible salesman (largely in part because he doesn't speak English well - what's a carpool?) and 2) that's not the reality for farmers and rural residents unless the plan has been significantly revised.  Promises of revisions to the plan is not the same thing as actually doing it.

You're not misreading the green shift plan, you're misreading the electorate. This is not a big issue to rural voters.

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B.C. races tend to be more three-way than anything else.  In most B.C. ridings held by Conservatives - including the rural ones - the Liberals and Dippers often were within 5 points of each other, even in defeat.[/quote]

In urban and suburban ridings, certainly. In rural areas... no. Just no.

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First off, they won't. Your obsession with the green tax shift is amusing but totally out-of-line. They may lose votes for other, fuzzy reasons (Dion), but not the green tax shift.

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You're totally missing the reality of these areas. The Liberal vote is quite static, but there are an enormous number of NDP-Conservative swing voters who'd never consider voting Liberal. In some ways its a cultural thing; the leftist rural voter survived in Canada in a way that they didn't in the US (at least outside of Minnesota). But, if the NDP gains votes in the Prairies, it will be mostly from the Conservatives directly, not from the Liberals.

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Of course. I just found the numbers amusing. I, too, doubt the NDP will win overall in the Prairies, although it can't be completely ruled out.

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What other than Premier Danny Williams is working against the Tories in Newfoundland? The Tories won their 3 NL ridings by over 10 points in 2006, and came within 5 points of beating the Liberals  in Random-Burin-St. George's.[/quote]

You've answered your own question. Harper is poison in Newfoundland precisely because of Danny Williams and the reasons the two have split. The Conservatives may not even be able to find candidates for some Newfoundland seats. That's how bad it is for them.

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And, as my signature suggests, I support the Greens.

[Хahar 🤔]

Results of said poll in map form:



LOL.

They should team up with ARG and Zogby for Zogby-ARG-EKOS super-polls!

That'd be great.
Clearly, the Liberals need a Trudeau.

[cinyc]

Strategic Vision is going to conduct daily polling of 45 swing ridings for CTV and The Globe and Mail: 20 in Ontario, 15 in Quebec and 10 in B.C.  They are calling them "Battleground 2008 Ridings".  The polls are aggregates of the ridings in those provinces, not riding-by-riding polls.

Here are the initial poll results (with the 2006 results for comparison in parentheses):

Ontario 20:
Conservative  41% (37%)
Liberal            29% (39%)
Green             17% (5%)
NDP                13% (19%)

Quebec 15:
Conservative  32% (23%)
Bloc                 28% (37%)
Liberal            24% (28%)
NDP                11% (8%)
Green               5% (4%)

B.C. 10:
Conservative   45% (35%)
Liberal             25% (33%)
NDP                 17% (27%)
Green              13% (5%)

All polls were taken September 4-6.  The MOE is supposed to be around +/-4.5% for every sample ongoing.

Here's a list of the "Battleground 2008" ridings (which basically were the ridings with the closest margins in 2006):

Ontario 20:
Parry Sound-Muskoka, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, St. Catharines, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Brant, Thunder Bay-Superior North, Oakville, Thunder Bay-Rainy River, Huron-Bruce, London-Fanshaw, Ottawa-Orléans, Simcoe North, London West, Barrie, Kitchener-Conestoga, Halton, Peterborough, Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, Burlington, Mississauga South.

Quebec 15:
Louis-Hébert, Ahuntsic, Beauport-Limoilou, Brossard-La Prairie, Papineau, Charlesbourg--Haut-Saint-Charles, Hull-Aylmer, Honoré-Mercier, Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot, Pontiac, Jeanne-Le Ber, Laval-Les Îles, Gatineau, Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Brome-Missisquoi.

British Columbia 10:
Vancouver Quadra, Vancouver Island North, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, Fleetwood-Port Kells, Newton-North Delta, Burnaby-Douglas, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, Richmond, Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission, North Vancouver.

[Meeker]

Results of said poll in map form:



LOL.

They should team up with ARG and Zogby for Zogby-ARG-EKOS super-polls!

That'd be great.
Clearly, the Liberals need a Trudeau.

Isn't Justin running?

[Hash]

Ontario 20:
Conservative  41% (37%)
Liberal            29% (39%)
Green             17% (5%)
NDP                13% (19%)

Am I the only one here who has a hard time seeing the Conservatives up that much in Ontario?

An another note, I'd prefer riding-by-riding polls than one poll for twenty ridings (not all of which are Lib-Con swing ridings, o/c). But riding polls remain riding polls...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In Britain, at least, "battleground" polls are notoriously inaccurate. Worse even then constituency polls.

[Hash]

In Britain, at least, "battleground" polls are notoriously inaccurate. Worse even then constituency polls.

That's part of the reason why I'm not putting much stock into this stuff.

[Verily]

Ontario 20:
Conservative  41% (37%)
Liberal            29% (39%)
Green             17% (5%)
NDP                13% (19%)

Am I the only one here who has a hard time seeing the Conservatives up that much in Ontario?

No, it's definitely wrong. Especially because a handful of the ridings included are NDP-Liberal swing ridings or three-way marginals; the Conservatives would have to be close to 50% in the ridings where they're actually competitive for those numbers to be true.

The Quebec numbers are also weird. There are, again, a number of ridings included where the Conservatives might come in fourth or fifth (Jeanne-Le Ber, Hull-Aylmer, Laval-Les Iles, Gatineau) and certainly will be completely irrelevant to the result, yet the Bloc is, as far as I can tell, at least competitive (as in, will come in second or first or a close third) in all of the ridings included. They will be way ahead in those 15 combined.

[minionofmidas]

Will the NDP hold Outremont?

Probably.

Dead cert, beyond a total collapse. More interesting is whether they might one or two more scalps on the island of Montréal...

[minionofmidas]

Results of said poll in map form:



LOL.

They should team up with ARG and Zogby for Zogby-ARG-EKOS super-polls!

That'd be great.
Clearly, the Liberals need a Trudeau.

Even a Chrétien would work wonders.

[Verily]

Will the NDP hold Outremont?

Probably.

Dead cert, beyond a total collapse. More interesting is whether they might one or two more scalps on the island of Montréal...

Given how revved up the campaign is in Westmount, it would not be a huge surprise. Also look for Hull-Aylmer and Gatineau for strong NDP showings.

Of course, Layton may not put as much effort in Quebec as the NDP should. There have been rumblings that Mulcair may try to topple Layton if the NDP's result is disappointing, and more NDP Quebec MPs mean more Mulcair allies in the NDP caucus. (Of course, more NDP Quebec MPs also mean more NDP MPs, but Layton may prefer to try to save seats in places like London-Fanshawe or Parkdale-High Park where the winner would be his ally.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Will the NDP hold Outremont?

Probably.

Dead cert, beyond a total collapse. More interesting is whether they might one or two more scalps on the island of Montréal...

Agree, though I suspect that his majority will fall to one extent or other. Though odd things happen in Quebec.

[Hash]

Will the NDP hold Outremont?

Probably.

Dead cert, beyond a total collapse. More interesting is whether they might one or two more scalps on the island of Montréal...

Agree, though I suspect that his majority will fall to one extent or other. Though odd things happen in Quebec.

More like very odd things.

[Hash]

Globe and Mail poll of polls.

National: C 36, L 29, N 18, B 8, G 9

Ontario: L 37, C 33, N 15, G 13
Quebec: B 32, C 25, L 23, N 12, G 6
Prairies: C 55, L 20, N 16, G 8
BC/Territories: C 43, L 24, N 20, G 12
Atlantic: N 36, L 30, C 29, G 5 (WTF?)

[Hatman 🍁]

So, an election is called and a really quite disastrous poll for the Liberals comes out.

EKOS
Con: 37
Lib: 24
NDP: 19
Green: 10
BQ: 6

Of course, there are some weird regional breakdowns in there, and I doubt Harper is that far ahead. The breakdown in Quebec is of particular interest:

BQ: 26
Con: 25
NDP: 21
Lib: 18
Green: 7

FYI, I still work for EKOS, but I haven't been doing any election polling as part of the day sh**t. I did do one night shift, but they had me doing something else.  I believe our sample comes from the "EKOS panel", so isn't actually random, although I believe it's our first survey as part of our panel.

[Hatman 🍁]

Some good NDP numbers in Quebec, not so good in Ontario so far

[cinyc]

Ontario 20:
Conservative  41% (37%)
Liberal            29% (39%)
Green             17% (5%)
NDP                13% (19%)

Am I the only one here who has a hard time seeing the Conservatives up that much in Ontario?

An another note, I'd prefer riding-by-riding polls than one poll for twenty ridings (not all of which are Lib-Con swing ridings, o/c). But riding polls remain riding polls...

Well, it's not an Ontario-wide poll, and the Tories really aren't up all that much - 4 points.  It's the Liberals (-10) and NDP (-6) who (supposedly) are down significantly from 2006, with the Greens up 12.

I wouldn't put too much stock into the Battleground 2008 polls, either.  Averages mask variation in data, and who knows where they polled when.  But more data is better than no data.