Canada 2008: Official Thread

[Hash]

That's why I'd rather see a Harper minority government than a Liberal one.

Disgusting.

[Hatman 🍁]

That's why I'd rather see a Harper minority government than a Liberal one.

Disgusting.

I hate the Liberals, I really do.

Interesting poll results... which party would best deal with environmental issues such as global warming and environmental pollution?

Liberals 21
NDP 20
Tories 20
Greens 20
BQ 3

[Hash]

Tories 20

20% of Canadians are retards.

[Hatman 🍁]

Greens 20

20% of Canadians are retards.

Corrected

[Hash]

What's with your respect for Tories?

[Meeker]

I actually like Dion. Apparently it's just me and Kyoto though.

[Hash]

I actually like Dion. Apparently it's just me and Kyoto though.

Apart from his charisma, leadership and English problems; I see no reason not to like him.

[minionofmidas]

NDP 20

80% of Canadians are retards.

Corrected

[Verily]

The Greenies are supporting Bill Casey (Ind) in his NS riding.

So 2 less candidates than a full slate?

Yes. I reluctantly agree about not running a candidate against Bill Casey.

Gives some insight into the sort of campaign May will be running against MacKay, too. No Conservatives in Nova Scotia? It's more likely than you think. (Gerald Keddy only survives because of Liberal-NDP vote-splitting, but that may stop this time around because of the whole Atlantic Accord business in Nova Scotia.)

[Verily]

So, an election is called and a really quite disastrous poll for the Liberals comes out.

EKOS
Con: 37
Lib: 24
NDP: 19
Green: 10
BQ: 6

Of course, there are some weird regional breakdowns in there, and I doubt Harper is that far ahead. The breakdown in Quebec is of particular interest:

BQ: 26
Con: 25
NDP: 21
Lib: 18
Green: 7

[Hash]

Ugh.

[cinyc]

So, an election is called and a really quite disastrous poll for the Liberals comes out.

EKOS
Con: 37
Lib: 24
NDP: 19
Green: 10
BQ: 6

Of course, there are some weird regional breakdowns in there, and I doubt Harper is that far ahead. The breakdown in Quebec is of particular interest:

BQ: 26
Con: 25
NDP: 21
Lib: 18
Green: 7

The Bloc is definitely weaker in Quebec than 2006 (42%) - every poll has shown this.  Usually, they've been polling in the 30s, not 26 though.   Again, I'd note that the regional subsample polls usually have high MOEs - for Quebec, usually around 7 points.

This is the second recent poll showing the CPC with a large lead.  (Strategic Counsel was the other).   If this poll reflects reality on October 14, the Tories would win a majority.  Of course, there's over a month to go, which is an eternity in politics.

[Hash]

BQ: 26
Con: 25
NDP: 21
Lib: 18
Green: 7

I'm sorry, but trash this.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I come back and an election in Canadia do be declared. Glory be!

[Meeker]

Will the NDP hold Outremont?

[Hash]

Will the NDP hold Outremont?

Probably.

[Verily]

BQ: 26
Con: 25
NDP: 21
Lib: 18
Green: 7

I'm sorry, but trash this.

I agree; there was a lot of weirdness in the poll. The NDP led in the Prairies and Atlantic Canada (!), the Liberals barely managed third ahead of the Greens in BC, the Greens were ahead of the NDP in Ontario, where the Conservatives narrowly led the Liberals. But it was amusing.

The only obvious result was 66% for the Conservatives in Alberta (Lib 17, NDP and Greens 8 each). But there's only one competitive seat in Alberta anyway, Edmonton-Strathcona.

[Хahar 🤔]

Link to the poll?

[Verily]

Link to the poll?

http://www.ekoselection.com/index.php/2008/09/election-is-harpers-to-lose/

Also, apparently someone in the Prairies said they'd vote for the Bloc ()

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The NDP led in the Prairies and Atlantic Canada

As much as I'd love that to be true, it's a reflection on the twin and related dangers of breakdowns and small sub-sample sizes.

[Hash]

Link to the poll?

http://www.ekoselection.com/index.php/2008/09/election-is-harpers-to-lose/

Also, apparently someone in the Prairies said they'd vote for the Bloc ()

Joke poll.

If I see any media mentioning that poll, I'll boycott them for the rest of my life.

[Hash]

The Human Trash is not running again.

[Meeker]

The Human Trash is not running again.

Emerson?

[cinyc]

I agree; there was a lot of weirdness in the poll. The NDP led in the Prairies and Atlantic Canada (!), the Liberals barely managed third ahead of the Greens in BC, the Greens were ahead of the NDP in Ontario, where the Conservatives narrowly led the Liberals. But it was amusing.

The only obvious result was 66% for the Conservatives in Alberta (Lib 17, NDP and Greens 8 each). But there's only one competitive seat in Alberta anyway, Edmonton-Strathcona.

I expect the Liberals to take a little bit of hit in BC due to the "green shift" tax plan, especially in the more rural ridings.  BCers already have been hit with a carbon tax and aren't liking it much.

The Bloc receiving votes in the Prairies?  A confused Winnipeg Francophone, perhaps?  And the Dippers in the lead there?  Again, the Liberals may take a hit in the non-urban parts of the Prairies (likely to go Torie, anyway) due to the green shift, but would the Dippers really be the ones to take advantage of that?

[Хahar 🤔]

Results of said poll in map form:



LOL.