MAINE

[Gabu]

Was she? I missed that...so now they both have visited the state. Do you know how big of a crowd she brought out?

Clinton drew 1,000-1,500. Obama drew 7,000+ in Bangor.

Ah, reassuring

Not really.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that Obama basically always draws way larger crowds than Clinton.  The reason for this is obvious: even if one doesn't support Obama, they can still enjoy listening to him speak.  Meanwhile, even those who support Clinton may not be able to stand listening to her.

I guess, though lately I think more people would go out to see their candidate to show support instead of just going to see them to speak or for entertainment. Now the races have gotten alot more competetive and such.

It pretty much just confirms for me something I've always suspected: namely, that Obama supporters are really enthusiastic about their candidate, while Hillary supporters just consider the others worse than her.

[TheresNoMoney]

I really have no idea what Maine will do tomorrow.

Hillary won New Hampshire by 2%, but Obama has gained considerable momentum since then. Maine is also a more liberal state than New Hampshire (which favors Obama), is lower income (which favors Clinton), and is also more rural (which favors Obama).

[exopolitician]

I really have no idea what Maine will do tomorrow.

Hillary won New Hampshire by 2%, but Obama has gained considerable momentum since then. Maine is also a more liberal state than New Hampshire (which favors Obama), is lower income (which favors Clinton), and is also more rural (which favors Obama).

Some kind of poll from anywhere would be much appreciated. The only poll ive seen was taken back in October.

[Tender Branson]

Prediction for Maine:

Obama: 54%
Clinton: 46%

[ottermax]

Is it a caucus? Then it's Obama since Clinton has only won one caucus... in Nevada (which had the Hispanic factor). If it's a primary, then Clinton will likely win.

[exopolitician]

Is it a caucus? Then it's Obama since Clinton has only won one caucus... in Nevada (which had the Hispanic factor). If it's a primary, then Clinton will likely win.

Its a sunday caucus.

[Aizen]

being on a sunday benefits obama. keep in mind that obama supporters hate god.

[Gabu]

being on a sunday benefits obama. keep in mind that obama supporters hate god.

Actually, Obama tends to win the "attends church more often" demographic, but then again in the South that's code for "is more black".

[exopolitician]

Maine Demographics: As of 2005


White: 97.81%
Black: 1.02%
American Indian/Alaska Native: 1.00%
Asian: 1.06%
Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander: 0.06%

Religion:

Christian: 82%
Protestant: 56%
Roman Catholic: 25%

Maine is second only to New Hampshire in the percentage of French Americans among U.S. states. It also has the largest percentage of non-Hispanic whites of any state and the highest percentage of current French-speakers. Franco-Mainers tended to settle in rural northern Maine (particularly Aroostook County) and the industrial cities of inland Maine (especially Lewiston) whereas much of the midcoast and downeast sections remain strongly Anglo. Smaller numbers of various other groups, including Italian and Polish settled throughout the state.

The largest ancestries in the state are: English, Scottish, and other British (30.8%), French or French Canadian (22.8%), Irish (15.1%), American (9.4%), and German (6.7%).

[Lief 🗽]

Do the French Mainers vote as an ethnic bloc? And is it overwhelmingly for one party or another?

[exopolitician]

Do the French Mainers vote as an ethnic bloc? And is it overwhelmingly for one party or another?

I havnt found any information that shows how and who French Mainers vote yet sadly so I honestly dont know.

[Ben.]

60-40, obama.

Nice bit of expectations managing there...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

French Canadians are mostly Democrats, though perhaps not to the extent that they used to be. This is as much a class thing as anything else.

You should note that, so far at least, Clinton has done well and Obama badly (sometimes very badly) in areas with significant numbers of voters of French descent.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I can see Clinton taking CD2 but I'd be surprised if Obama loses the state. I'll say Obama with 55%.

[Ben.]

What sort of time are they caucusing?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Nobody's mentioned that Kucinich got 16% of the caucus vote in 2004. That would seem to be a point in favor for Obama.

[Joe Biden 2020]

What sort of time are they caucusing?

They start at 1:00 pm Eastern and end at 8:00 pm Eastern, so it will be later this evening before we get results.

http://www.mainedems.org/calendar/calendar.aspx

[Bacon King]

Waitaminute, seven hour long primaries?

[Speed of Sound]

Im assuming that just means the first opens at 1 and the last clsoes at 8?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The Republican caucuses happened over an entire weekend, so this shouldn't be that big a surprise.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Im assuming that just means the first opens at 1 and the last clsoes at 8?

Thats probably what it is.  I don't know much about caucuses, yet, but I assume you're right.

[Verily]

Im assuming that just means the first opens at 1 and the last clsoes at 8?

About half of the caucuses open at 1, and another quarter at 2, so we'll have lots of anecdotal reports early on. I believe the last to open is Bath, at 6, which means 8 would be the latest possible ending (if Bath takes two hours).

[Verily]

Do the French Mainers vote as an ethnic bloc? And is it overwhelmingly for one party or another?

Democrats, generally. The town map on this website illustrates this well, with the Democratic vote in Aroostook County concentrated up at the border with (French speaking areas of) New Brunswick.

[Verily]

This might be slightly more favorable to Obama than the final result, but here's a prediction map:

[Alcon]

Primary-wise, I imagine the French folks will be pretty solidly Clinton.  They're culturally conservative on the most part, if memory serves.