What seats can the GOP regain in the house?

[Spaghetti Cat]

what seats can republicans regain in the house?

My List    Incumbent             Challenger
PA-4 (Jason Altmire)           (Melissa Hart)
AZ-8 (Gabrielle Giffords)      (Timothy Bee)
FL-16 (Tim Mahoney)           (TBD)
KS-2  (Nancy Boyda)            (Jim Ryun)
KY-3  (John Yarmuth)           (Anne Northup)
NH-1  (Carol Shea-Porter)    (Jeb Bradley)
NH-2  (Paul Hodes)               (Jennifer Horn)
OH-18 (Zack Space)              (TBD)
TX-22  (Nick Lampson)           (TBD) 
WI-8   (Steve Kagen)             (John Gard)           

[Jake]

FL-16, PA-10, TX-22, KS-02, and PA-04 have to be the main targets. With McCain on the ticket, all five are very winnable. Some of those others you cited (AZ-08, OH-18, NH-02) I'm much more doubtful that they're in play.

[Mr.Phips]

what seats can republicans regain in the house?

My List    Incumbent             Challenger
PA-4 (Jason Altmire)           (Melissa Hart)
AZ-8 (Gabrielle Giffords)      (Timothy Bee)
FL-16 (Tim Mahoney)           (TBD)
KS-2  (Nancy Boyda)            (Jim Ryun)
KY-3  (John Yarmuth)           (Anne Northup)
NH-1  (Carol Shea-Porter)    (Jeb Bradley)
NH-2  (Paul Hodes)               (Jennifer Horn)
OH-18 (Zack Space)              (TBD)
TX-22  (Nick Lampson)           (TBD) 
WI-8   (Steve Kagen)             (John Gard)           

I doubt Republicans will get back KY-03.  That is a pretty liberal district.  It was the only won in the state that John Kerry carried and this was in a state that Bush carried by 21 points.  NH-02 is even more Democratic and Democrats killed Republicans in turnout in the primary.   OH-18 will likely stay Dem as well since Republicans didnt recruit a top tier challenger. 

I agree with you on the other ones. 

[Spaghetti Cat]

Although I'd agree that regaining AZ-8 and OH-18 are doubtful, I just have a strong feeling about NH-02.  Jennifer Horn seems like a strong candidate that can beat Hodes on a local level.  I just have this feeling that Hodes is going to be unseated in an upset.  Anne Northup also has a chance to win back her seat.  There was a recent poll in which she was only behind Yarmuth by a point or two.

[Keystone Phil]

Hey! Welcome to the forum. It's always great to see another Pennsylvania Republican here. Which area of the state are you from? I'm from Philly. 

Anyway, I think we have a opportunities such as PA 4, FL 16, TX 22, OH 18 and PA 10 (even though we don't have any incredibly strong candidates up there).

[MarkWarner08]

what seats can republicans regain in the house?

My List    Incumbent             Challenger
PA-4 (Jason Altmire)           (Melissa Hart)
AZ-8 (Gabrielle Giffords)      (Timothy Bee)
FL-16 (Tim Mahoney)           (TBD)
KS-2  (Nancy Boyda)            (Jim Ryun)
KY-3  (John Yarmuth)           (Anne Northup)
NH-1  (Carol Shea-Porter)    (Jeb Bradley)
NH-2  (Paul Hodes)               (Jennifer Horn)
OH-18 (Zack Space)              (TBD)
TX-22  (Nick Lampson)           (TBD) 
WI-8   (Steve Kagen)             (John Gard)           

Space, Giffords, Hodes, and Yarmuth are not going to lose in 2008. Kagen's in trouble because he makes stupid comments. TX-22, PA-10, CA-11, FL-16, and KS-02 are the only seats that the GOP has a 50% or better shot of winning.

[JSojourner]

TX 22 worries me the most.  (Aside from Jim Marshall's seat in Georgia.  But that was not a D pickup last time.)

[MarkWarner08]

TX 22 worries me the most.  (Aside from Jim Marshall's seat in Georgia.  But that was not a D pickup last time.)

We're going to lose TX-22. That's a given. GA-08 may flip too. Good point on that district.

[Sam Spade]

what seats can republicans regain in the house?

My List    Incumbent             Challenger
PA-4 (Jason Altmire)           (Melissa Hart)
AZ-8 (Gabrielle Giffords)      (Timothy Bee)
FL-16 (Tim Mahoney)           (TBD)
KS-2  (Nancy Boyda)            (Jim Ryun)
KY-3  (John Yarmuth)           (Anne Northup)
NH-1  (Carol Shea-Porter)    (Jeb Bradley)
NH-2  (Paul Hodes)               (Jennifer Horn)
OH-18 (Zack Space)              (TBD)
TX-22  (Nick Lampson)           (TBD) 
WI-8   (Steve Kagen)             (John Gard)           

Space, Giffords, Hodes, and Yarmuth are not going to lose in 2008. Kagen's in trouble because he makes stupid comments. TX-22, PA-10, CA-11, FL-16, and KS-02 are the only seats that the GOP has a 50% or better shot of winning.

Question:  How would McCain at the top affect the two AZ freshman, not to mention AZ-01?

[MarkWarner08]

what seats can republicans regain in the house?

My List    Incumbent             Challenger
PA-4 (Jason Altmire)           (Melissa Hart)
AZ-8 (Gabrielle Giffords)      (Timothy Bee)
FL-16 (Tim Mahoney)           (TBD)
KS-2  (Nancy Boyda)            (Jim Ryun)
KY-3  (John Yarmuth)           (Anne Northup)
NH-1  (Carol Shea-Porter)    (Jeb Bradley)
NH-2  (Paul Hodes)               (Jennifer Horn)
OH-18 (Zack Space)              (TBD)
TX-22  (Nick Lampson)           (TBD) 
WI-8   (Steve Kagen)             (John Gard)           

Space, Giffords, Hodes, and Yarmuth are not going to lose in 2008. Kagen's in trouble because he makes stupid comments. TX-22, PA-10, CA-11, FL-16, and KS-02 are the only seats that the GOP has a 50% or better shot of winning.

Question:  How would McCain at the top affect the two AZ freshman, not to mention AZ-01?

Giffords is very strong and Mitchell had a statue erected in his honor. Neither has been afflicted by scandal or made politically unfortunate votes. Both of raised prodigious sums of cash, too. In short, neither should be vulnerable unless McCain wins by 60+%.

[Padfoot]

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Should be a close race again.  It'll probably be impossible to call until the week before the election.

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McCain coattails could make it competitive but I think Giffords will hold on regardless.  This is a swing district not a bastion of GOP strength.

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I think the GOP stands a good chance of winning this one back.  Probably one of their best pick-up chances.

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I have a feeling that Boyda rode in on a combination of dissatisfaction with the GOP and Sebelius' coattails.  I think it will take another combination of happy coincidences to keep her in office.  2008 will have to be another really good Democratic year or she'll lose.

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Not a likely pick-up for the GOP in my opinion.  If Kerry can win here then so can Obama and Clinton so Yarmuth should be safe.

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New Hampshire strongly rebuked Bradley and I think his poor sport attitude since he lost will hurt him.  NH swung hard to the left in the last election and even though this turned out to be a close win in 2006 I think Shea-Porter will win with a slightly larger margin in 2008.

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This is the more Democratic of the two NH districts and I don't think the GOP has any chance to take it back in the near future.

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OH-18 is not as Republican friendly as the GOP would have people believe.  This is a district where conservative Democrats can do very well and Zach Space is doing just that.  He should be easily re-elected.

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If the GOP loses here then they don't deserve to win anywhere IMO.  The crowded primary creates some risks though.

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This district will mirror whatever the presidential result ends up as in Wisconsin.  So I'd say its the biggest tossup on this list.

[MarkWarner08]

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Should be a close race again.  It'll probably be impossible to call until the week before the election.

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McCain coattails could make it competitive but I think Giffords will hold on regardless.  This is a swing district not a bastion of GOP strength.

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I think the GOP stands a good chance of winning this one back.  Probably one of their best pick-up chances.

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I have a feeling that Boyda rode in on a combination of dissatisfaction with the GOP and Sebelius' coattails.  I think it will take another combination of happy coincidences to keep her in office.  2008 will have to be another really good Democratic year or she'll lose.

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Not a likely pick-up for the GOP in my opinion.  If Kerry can win here then so can Obama and Clinton so Yarmuth should be safe.

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New Hampshire strongly rebuked Bradley and I think his poor sport attitude since he lost will hurt him.  NH swung hard to the left in the last election and even though this turned out to be a close win in 2006 I think Shea-Porter will win with a slightly larger margin in 2008.

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This is the more Democratic of the two NH districts and I don't think the GOP has any chance to take it back in the near future.

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OH-18 is not as Republican friendly as the GOP would have people believe.  This is a district where conservative Democrats can do very well and Zach Space is doing just that.  He should be easily re-elected.

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If the GOP loses here then they don't deserve to win anywhere IMO.  The crowded primary creates some risks though.

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This district will mirror whatever the presidential result ends up as in Wisconsin.  So I'd say its the biggest tossup on this list.

Excellent assessment of the races....

[HardRCafé]

Lampson, Shea-Porter, and Yarmuth are most vulnerable in that order.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Indeed, with McCain set to be the GOP nominee, I'm expecting him to carry the Granite State.  That's not good news for an accidental congressman like Shea-Porter, who could really use some kind of big Democratic vote run-up to shield her from a tough, moderate competitior.

[Brittain33]

Indeed, with McCain set to be the GOP nominee, I'm expecting him to carry the Granite State.  That's not good news for an accidental congressman like Shea-Porter, who could really use some kind of big Democratic vote run-up to shield her from a tough, moderate competitior.

If McCain's at the top of the ticket, Shea-Porter's race against Bradley will be 100% about the war, whether you want us to withdraw ASAP or stay for 100 years. That's not a comfortable race for a Republican in N.H. I do not believe Bradley will be able to define the race in terms of his own moderate profile although it does help that he isn't unacceptable to the district.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

what seats can republicans regain in the house?

My List    Incumbent             Challenger
FL-16 (Tim Mahoney)           (TBD)
KS-2  (Nancy Boyda)            (Jim Ryun)
NH-1  (Carol Shea-Porter)    (Jeb Bradley)
TX-22  (Nick Lampson)           (TBD) 
WI-8   (Steve Kagen)             (John Gard)           

These, plus GA-08. Although I don't think they'll win all of them, what with the huge financial deficit Republican House candidates are facing this cycle.

[Spaghetti Cat]

Hi Keystone Phil, I'm actually from Ligonier, which is west of Pittsburgh and east of Johnstown.  Great to see another PA Republican.
I think that PA-4 is very winnable for Hart.  This race will be close to the very end.  Also, FL-16, KS-2, both NH-1 and 2, TX-22, and WI-8 top my list

[Brittain33]

I think that PA-4 is very winnable for Hart.  This race will be close to the very end.  Also, FL-16, KS-2, both NH-1 and 2, TX-22, and WI-8 top my list

On what issues do you think Hart will be able to unseat Altmire? What kind of contrast can she set up that will appeal to voters to make a change?

When I look at how she got to Congress and her role there, I don't see a compelling reason for voters to reconsider their 2006 decision. If the district were more solidly Republican, that would be different, but it's a swing distict and the environment doesn't favor Republicans this year. PA-10, this isn't.

I admit I know zilch about Altmire.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I'm somewhat astonished people, basically Republicans slightly over eager, are already predicted that they will gain back up to 8 lost seats in the last cycle.  I'm sorry, but I think is plain rubbish.  The GOP should regain GA-8 and TX-22 and could well win IA-3 and WI-8.  Apart from that, I don't see why either New Hampshire districts are going to reverse the momentous decision signaling a windchange they made in 2006.  Perhaps the GOP will get lucky and win back one lost Pennsylvania seat, but this by no means certain.  The Republican Party has been gravely damaged at the Congressional level and while I don't think they will be shut out of winning any new seats like they were in 2006, they are far from a position in which they will anything more than 5 seats at best.  In my opinion!

[Brittain33]

I'm somewhat astonished people, basically Republicans slightly over eager, are already predicted that they will gain back up to 8 lost seats in the last cycle.  I'm sorry, but I think is plain rubbish.  The GOP should regain GA-8 and TX-22 and could well win IA-3 and WI-8.  Apart from that, I don't see why either New Hampshire districts are going to reverse the momentous decision signaling a windchange they made in 2006.  Perhaps the GOP will get lucky and win back one lost Pennsylvania seat, but this by no means certain.  The Republican Party has been gravely damaged at the Congressional level and while I don't think they will be shut out of winning any new seats like they were in 2006, they are far from a position in which they will anything more than 5 seats at best.  In my opinion!

Yes, that's how I feel... We've gone from 10 years of a status quo where Republicans had a slight structural advantage in the Congressional vote, and that informs people's feelings about how seats should go. 2006 may have been a wave election, but that doesn't make it an aberration. Waves change the reality moving forward in secondary ways, by giving the formerly out party the glow of a winner and increasing the ability of the dominant party to campaign in open seats and hold freshman seats. In addition, we've had a true realignment in the northeast that will hold as long as the Republicans are defined by Sunbelt religious conservatism.

PA-4 and NH-1 favored Republicans as open seats several years ago. They wouldn't do so now. More importantly, they have Democratic incumbents who have incumbent advantages.

Republicans have another two years in the wilderness before they can start to make real gains in the House again outside of the true outliers from '06, the last remnants of the rural white southern Democrats, and the lemons among the newly elected Democrats. Only the first category seems to offer promise this year. In the second, you lack open seats and only GA-8 looks promising, and in the third, I don't see any Wes Cooleys or Enid Greene Waldholzes in the current crop.

I'm not trying to gloat by any means, but it took a long time as a Democrat to accept that my party was going to be on the outs until something changed the paradigm, and now the paradigm has shifted for at least another election cycle.

[Mr.Phips]

Although I'd agree that regaining AZ-8 and OH-18 are doubtful, I just have a strong feeling about NH-02.  Jennifer Horn seems like a strong candidate that can beat Hodes on a local level.  I just have this feeling that Hodes is going to be unseated in an upset.  Anne Northup also has a chance to win back her seat.  There was a recent poll in which she was only behind Yarmuth by a point or two.

Northup has a better chance than Hodes, but it is still doubtful.  For a long time incumbent to be behind two points in a NRCC push poll is not good.  NH-02 is still very doubtful.  This is a district that will vote for any Democratic nominee(even Kerry won 53%-46%) and with the end of ticket splitting, Hodes will win. 

[Mr.Phips]

Hey! Welcome to the forum. It's always great to see another Pennsylvania Republican here. Which area of the state are you from? I'm from Philly. 

Anyway, I think we have a opportunities such as PA 4, FL 16, TX 22, OH 18 and PA 10 (even though we don't have any incredibly strong candidates up there).

I would say that PA-04 is much more likely than PA-10.  A recent poll had Carney up 30%+ over an of his Republican opponents. 

[Brittain33]

I would say that PA-04 is much more likely than PA-10.  A recent poll had Carney up 30%+ over an of his Republican opponents. 

47% of PA-10 voted for a mistress-strangler. How weak of a Republican candidate must you be, I wonder, to not be able to win here?

[Mr.Phips]

I would say that PA-04 is much more likely than PA-10.  A recent poll had Carney up 30%+ over an of his Republican opponents. 

47% of PA-10 voted for a mistress-strangler. How weak of a Republican candidate must you be, I wonder, to not be able to win here?

I guess the district just likes incumbents. 

[Keystone Phil]

I think that PA-4 is very winnable for Hart.  This race will be close to the very end.  Also, FL-16, KS-2, both NH-1 and 2, TX-22, and WI-8 top my list

On what issues do you think Hart will be able to unseat Altmire? What kind of contrast can she set up that will appeal to voters to make a change?

When I look at how she got to Congress and her role there, I don't see a compelling reason for voters to reconsider their 2006 decision. If the district were more solidly Republican, that would be different, but it's a swing distict and the environment doesn't favor Republicans this year. PA-10, this isn't.

I admit I know zilch about Altmire.

So if this seems too simple but Hart will be able to unseat him based on her likeability there. She didn't work last time and got caught up in a national wave. She's very popular there so at the very least it will be a close race.