What seats can the GOP regain in the house?

[Jake]

I would say that PA-04 is much more likely than PA-10.  A recent poll had Carney up 30%+ over an of his Republican opponents. 

The poll was conducted in December by Momentum Analysis and paid for by the American Hospital Assoc. PAC.  It had Carney up 55-21 vs. Hackett and 53-23 vs. Meuser. Note that Meuser only had been in the race since October. Since the poll was conducted, Meuser's been endorsed by Santorum, Joe Peters, Lou Barletta, a Don Ely, who had been running; he's kicked off his campaign to a good sized crowd of 250 and has been appearing in events all over NEPA, visiting my home town this week. He's also announced he raised ~400K in 2007 since entering the race. He's not going to have money issues, he just needs name recognition.

The poll, BTW, still had Bush's approval numbers at 45-52. That jives pretty well with the 47% Sherwood won here in 2006 to establish 45-47% as a basement for GOP support in the district. 2004's showing by Kerry of 40% in the district is the Democrat's basement. I've yet to find anyone who's willing to be that Carney sweeps the middle ground with McCain sitting at the top of the ticket.

[Mr.Phips]

I would say that PA-04 is much more likely than PA-10.  A recent poll had Carney up 30%+ over an of his Republican opponents. 

The poll was conducted in December by Momentum Analysis and paid for by the American Hospital Assoc. PAC.  It had Carney up 55-21 vs. Hackett and 53-23 vs. Meuser. Note that Meuser only had been in the race since October. Since the poll was conducted, Meuser's been endorsed by Santorum, Joe Peters, Lou Barletta, a Don Ely, who had been running; he's kicked off his campaign to a good sized crowd of 250 and has been appearing in events all over NEPA, visiting my home town this week. He's also announced he raised ~400K in 2007 since entering the race. He's not going to have money issues, he just needs name recognition.

The poll, BTW, still had Bush's approval numbers at 45-52. That jives pretty well with the 47% Sherwood won here in 2006 to establish 45-47% as a basement for GOP support in the district. 2004's showing by Kerry of 40% in the district is the Democrat's basement. I've yet to find anyone who's willing to be that Carney sweeps the middle ground with McCain sitting at the top of the ticket.

So are you already saying that Carney will lose?

[Jake]

Nah. Way to early to tell there. Just that Carney is in much more danger than any other incumbent not named Nick Lampson. He holds a strong GOP district and is running against someone who is wealthy and has shown great ability to fundraise and gain endorsements. History tells us that after wave elections districts bounce back to the party who held them. There was no reason outside the scandal for Carney to have been elected and without that advantage running in 2008, he's in big time trouble.

Add in that Meuser is from the very areas of Luzerne County that Republicans got hit so hard in in 2006 (Bush won 54% in the PA-10 parts of Luzerne County, Sherwood got just 39%).

[Mr.Phips]

History tells us that after wave elections districts bounce back to the party who held them. There was no reason outside the scandal for Carney to have been elected and without that advantage running in 2008, he's in big time trouble.

That's usually only when a wave happens in a Presidential year.  Anyway, 2006 was not that big of a wave.  1974, 1966, and 1958 were waves.  This was more like a 1978 style mini-wave. 

[Jake]

The second sentence stands.

[MarkWarner08]

Early 2006 CW (Cook, Rothenberg etc.) rundown of these same races:

PA-4  Likely or Safe Republican Result: Democratic win
AZ-8  Leans Republicans Result: Democratic win
FL-16 Safe Republican   Result: Democratic win
KS-2  Safe Republican Result: Democratic win
KY-3  Likely Republican Result: Democratic win
NH-1  Likely Republican  Result: Democratic win
NH-2   Likely Republican             Result: Democratic win
OH-18  Likely Republican            Result: Democratic win
TX-22   Likely Republican          Result: Democratic win
WI-8   Leans Republican            Result: Democratic win


What's my point? Be patient. Wait till at least September to start making predictions.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

History tells us that after wave elections districts bounce back to the party who held them. There was no reason outside the scandal for Carney to have been elected and without that advantage running in 2008, he's in big time trouble.

That's usually only when a wave happens in a Presidential year.  Anyway, 2006 was not that big of a wave.  1974, 1966, and 1958 were waves.  This was more like a 1978 style mini-wave. 

Don't be silly.  Of course 2006 was a major wave.

[Spaghetti Cat]

My thinking is that there are more seats with an incumbent that republicans will take, than dems (but dems will probably pick up some open gop seats)

[MarkWarner08]

Nick Lampson = Mike Flanagan

Besides Lampson the Fluke, every Democratic freshman has at least a 50% chance of reelection.

[Mr.Phips]

Nick Lampson = Mike Flanagan

Besides Lampson the Fluke, every Democratic freshman has at least a 50% chance of reelection.

I don't think Lampson loses nearly as badly as Flanagan did in 1996. 

[MarkWarner08]

Nick Lampson = Mike Flanagan

Besides Lampson the Fluke, every Democratic freshman has at least a 50% chance of reelection.

I don't think Lampson loses nearly as badly as Flanagan did in 1996. 

Of course not, but the result will be the same.

[SamInTheSouth]

TX 22 worries me the most.  (Aside from Jim Marshall's seat in Georgia.  But that was not a D pickup last time.)

Both Marshall and Barrow nearly lost in '06.  The ill will towards the GOP that year may have been what bought them some more time, but they are both fairly conservative Democrats, so they might be fine.

[AndrewTX]

Get ready for Speaker Pelosi to loooooooooooooooooooossseeee!!!!